Nuggets at Nets: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
Denver Nuggets at Brooklyn Nets (-1, 199.5)
The Denver Nuggets have lost back-to-back games after a nine-game winning streak and are an injury ravaged squad heading into Wednesday’s game against the Brooklyn Nets. The Nuggets were without starters Danilo Gallinari and Andre Iguodala and reserve Wilson Chandler in Tuesday’s loss to the Toronto Raptors and the trio could again be sidelined against the Nets. Brooklyn will be without point guard Deron Williams, who is dealing with severe ankle inflammation.
The Nets notched an 89-84 overtime victory over the Indiana Pacers on Monday despite Williams sitting out. Brooklyn is hoping the upcoming All-Star break will give Williams enough rest to resume playing immediately after the break. Iguodala is sidelined with an ankle injury, Gallinari has a sinus infection and Chandler has a groin injury. To make matters worse, reserve JaVale McGee left with a leg injury in the second half against Toronto and his status is also in doubt. The Nuggets are concluding a four-game road trip and are just 11-17 away from home.
ABOUT THE NUGGETS (33-20, 32-21-0 ATS): Point guard Ty Lawson was the key offensive cog in the loss to Toronto and had 29 points and nine assists for the second consecutive outing. Lawson will again be expected to take a lot of shots – he took 20 against the Raptors – if Denver is again missing several key players. Power forward Kenneth Faried had 15 points and 11 rebounds against Toronto for his fourth double-double in five games. The injuries forced rarely used guard Evan Fournier to make his first career start. He had six points in 18 minutes.
ABOUT THE NETS (30-22, 23-26-3 ATS): Brooklyn committed just 11 turnovers in the overtime win over the Pacers despite being without Williams. Rookie Tyshawn Taylor helped pick up the slack with a season-best 12 points and committed only two turnovers in 34-plus minutes. Center Brook Lopez led the way with 25 points. “It was great,” Lopez said afterwards of the performance. “It was a complete team game from top to bottom.” Brooklyn is 3 1/2 games behind the New York Knicks in the Atlantic Division race.
TRENDS:
* Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
* Nuggets are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. NBA Atlantic.
* Nets are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. Western Conference.
* Over is 15-3 in Nuggets last 18 overall.
BUZZER BEATERS:
1. Denver has won eight of the past 10 meetings.
2. The Nuggets have scored 100 or more points in 12 consecutive games.
3. Nets F Reggie Evans had 22 rebounds against Indiana for his third 20-rebound outing of the season.
Inside the Paint - Wednesday
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Tuesday’s Recap
Even though the underdogs were just 2-4 straight up yesterday, they did produce a 5-1 record against the spread and it easily could’ve been 6-0. Our apologies go out to any bettors who backed the Trail Blazers (+11) against the Heat. The score was 99-99 with five minutes left in the game and was setting up for a great finish. Then, LeBron James and company took over and closed the night with an 18-5 run, which led to a 117-104 home victory for Miami.
The Heat will close the first-half of the season on Thursday at Oklahoma City, who was caught looking ahead last night. The Thunder’s offense stalled and Utah captured a 109-94 win as a six-point home underdog yesterday.
Arguably the most impressive win on Tuesday came from Houston, who beat Golden State 116-107 on the road. A lot of our ‘cappers were chasing with the Warriors in the revenge spot but they apparently failed to recognize that Golden State has now dropped five in a row and the defense has surrendered 116 points or more in four of those setbacks.
Climb the Wall
John Wall was the No. 1 overall pick of the Washington Wizards in the 2010 NBA Draft. If you look at this entire class, it’s safe to say that the bottom tier is better than the players selected in the lottery. Wall certainly hasn’t lived up to the hype of the top selection yet, but you can see he’s improving. After missing the first 33 games of the season, Wall returned to the lineup on Jan. 12. Since he’s been on the court, Washington has gone 10-7. More importantly, the Wizards are 14-3 against the number.
Tonight, the club will look to extend their four-game winning streak when they close the first-half of the season at Detroit. The Pistons are listed as two-point home favorites at most betting outfits. These teams met in mid-December for a home-and-home set and Detroit won and covered both contests (100-68, 96-87). The ‘under’ cashed in both games.
Washington has gone 2-6 SU on the road with Wall but they’ve covered 75 percent (6-2) of those games. The Pistons have gone 14-15 SU and 13-16 ATS at The Palace of Auburn Hills this season. The team has gone 2-3 both SU and ATS since it acquired point guard Jose Calderon from Toronto and that includes a 0-2 record as a favorite.
Back-to-Back Spots
Six teams will be playing on no rest tonight and all of them will be on the road as well.
(B2B records listed in parenthesis)
Toronto (6-5 SU, 9-2 ATS 6-5 OU): The Raptors head to Madison Square Garden to face the Knicks for the first time this season. Despite losing two of three, New York opened as an 8½-point favorite.
Denver (4-7 SU, 7-4 ATS, 9-2 OU): Despite being short-handed last night, the Nuggets showed some fight in a 109-108 loss at Toronto. Injuries will be a factor but Denver has proven that it can play with anybody and tonight’s game at Brooklyn is certainly winnable.
Portland (6-6 SU, 7-5 ATS, 6-6 OU): You wonder how much the Trail Blazers left on the court last night in Miami. The line tells you everything in this spot, with the Hornets laying five points to Portland. New Orleans is only 8-15 SU and 10-13 ATS at home. However, the Blazers are 8-19 SU and 10-17 ATS on the road.
Utah (5-8 SU, 5-8 ATS, 8-5 OU): Nice win for the Jazz last night over the Thunder. Heading to Minnesota will certainly be a letdown spot. The Timberwolves opened as two-point home favorites.
Sacramento (5-6 SU, 5-6 ATS, 6-5 OU): The Kings have looked competitive lately, going 2-2 SU and 4-0 ATS. They have dropped five straight on the road but getting 10½-points at Dallas seems tempting.
Houston (5-10 SU, 6-9 ATS, 7-8 OU): All-Star James Harden (ankle) is ‘doubtful’ for the Rockets and it would be surprising to see him play after the Rockets ran past the Warriors last night. The L.A. Clippers do return from a long road trip and we touch on that angle below.
Slumping Bucks
After winning eight of 11 games, the Bucks were starting to make a move in the Eastern Conference. Since that solid run, Milwaukee has dropped six of seven, including four straight. During that span, the team is 0-7 ATS and that includes a 0-4 mark at home. Tonight, Milwaukee will look to snap the skid when Philadelphia visits. Coincidentally, the 76ers haven’t been on the road since they played the Bucks on Jan. 22 and lost 110-102. Including that loss, Philadelphia is 2-8 in its last 10 road games.
Total Talk
The ‘under’ went 5-3 on Monday but the ‘over’ posted a 5-1 record last night. Will the pendulum swing the other way tonight?
Portland has seen the ‘over’ go 6-0 in its last six
Houston is on a 5-0 run to the ‘over’
New York has seen the ‘under’ go 5-1 in the last six and 10-3 in the last 13
Dallas has watched the ‘over’ go 16-7 (69%) at home.
Home Trap
A couple weeks ago, we talked about a particular NBA betting system and we’ll bring it up again tonight.
Play against home favorites off a road trip of three or more games
It’s not a guaranteed system by any means but it has proven to work more often than not. Again, you’re expecting the home team to have a letdown or layover after a long road trip.
Last night, the Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State both returned home after road trips of seven and four games respectively. The Lakers captured a 91-85 win over Phoenix last night but was never close to covering the number (-9) and we already touched on the Warriors’ setback to Houston.
For Wednesday, you have two teams facing these situations – New Orleans and L.A. Clippers. As mentioned above, you have to pick your spots and these could definitely be classified as pass plays. This will be the last game of the first-half for the Hornets but the Clippers meet the Lakers tomorrow, which could create a look-ahead spot here.
Just keep the system in mind for the second-half of the season.
NBA Point Spreads and Picks
By: The Linemakers
Sportingnews.com
The Celtics are 2-point favorites at home vs. the Bulls Wednesday night in the fourth meeting of the season between the Eastern Conference rivals. It’s one of a dozen games on tonight’s NBA card.
The Bulls have won and covered two of the first three meetings with Boston this season, including an outright 100-99 win as 2-point dogs in Boston the last time they met, Jan. 18.
The Celtics have been among the hottest teams in the NBA, but their seven-game win streak was halted by the Bobcats in Charlotte on Monday night. They weren’t beating up on cupcakes during that run, either, with wins over the Heat, Clippers, Lakers and Nuggets. Surprisingly, Boston’s momentum picked up when Rajon Rondo went down for the season with a knee injury.
Neither Boston nor Chicago has been a profitable betting proposition this season — the Bulls are 21-30 ATS, the Celtics 21-27-3. Tonight plays to both teams' ATS strengths, however, as Chicago is a solid 14-10 ATS on the road, and Boston has cashed at a 14-12-2 rate at home.
So we’re inclined to leave the side alone tonight and instead make a play on the total.
And there are trends pointing to the OVER. The Bulls are 14-10 to the over on the road this season, and the Celtics strung together four straight overs until the anomaly in Charlotte.
Rick and Micah (video): We're leaning OVER tonight's modest total of 182
Here are some key trends and injury news to peruse as you're doing your pro basketball handicapping for tonight's games. The lines are from the LVH SuperBook as of about 9:30 a.m. PT.
Trends:
* The Hawks have covered four of their last five road games, and have gone OVER the total in their last four. The Magic have covered just twice in their last 13 games. The Hawks have covered 13 of the last 16 meetings with the Magic. Atlanta lays 3 on the road tonight, the total is 198.
* The Spurs have covered four of their last five road games. The Cavaliers have covered only once in the last five games against Western Conference teams. The Spurs have covered in their last six meetings with the Cavs and have gone OVER the total in their last five meetings. The Spurs are -7 in Cleveland tonight, the total is 207.
* The Bobcats have covered once in their last five road games. They have also failed to cover in their past six Wednesday games. The Pacers have covered five of their last seven home games. The Bobcats have stayed UNDER the total in seven of their last eight games, as well as five of their last six meetings with the Pacers. Indiana is -10.5 tonight, with a total of 185.
* The Nuggets have covered six of their last seven games, but only one of their last six against Atlantic Division teams. The Nets have failed to cover in their last four home games. The Nuggets have gone OVER the total in 15 of their last 18 games. Brooklyn is a 2-point favorite, and the total is 198.
* The Wizards have more covers (31) this season than any team in the NBA. They have covered seven of their last nine road games. The Pistons have covered five of their last six games against teams with a losing record. The Wizards have stayed UNDER the total in seven of their last nine games. Washington is a 2-point dog on the road, with a total of 191.
* The Raptors have covered their last four road games. The Knicks have covered 18 of their last 27 games following a loss. The Knicks have stayed UNDER the total in their past four home games and five of their last six overall. New York is a 9-point favorite tonight, the total is 197.
* The Celtics have covered their last six home games. The Bulls have covered five of their last seven road games against teams with a winning home record. The Bulls have gone OVER the total in their last six meetings with Atlantic Division teams. Boston is -2, the total is 182.
* The Jazz have failed to cover their last six games against teams with a losing record. The T’Wolves have covered only once in their last seven home games. The Jazz and T’Wolves have gone OVER the total in five of their last six meetings in Minnesota. Minnesota is -2.5, with a total of 193.
* The Blazers have failed to cover in their last four road games. The Hornets have covered five of their last seven home games. The Blazers have gone OVER the total in their last six games. New Orleans is a 5-point favorite, and the total is 194.5
* The 76ers have failed to cover their past five road games. The Bucks have failed to cover their past seven games overall. The Bucks have gone OVER the total in seven of their last 10 home games. Milwaukee is -5.5, with a total of 194.5.
* The Kings have covered their past four games. The Mavericks have covered seven of their last nine home games. The Mavericks have gone OVER the total in eight of their last 11 games. The home team has covered seven of the last eight meetings between the Kings and Mavericks. Dallas lays 10 at home tonight, the total is 209.5.
* The Rockets have covered five of their last six games. The Clippers have covered only once in their last five home games. The Rockets have gone OVER the total in their last five games. L.A. is a 10-point favorite at Staples Center tonight, with a total of 208.
Injury report:
* The Spurs have Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker all listed as probable tonight.
* Pacers forward David West (eye) is questionable.
* Nets guard Deron Williams (ankle) is OUT.
* Nuggets forward Danilo Gallinari (sinus) is questionable.
* Nuggets guard Andre Igoudala (neck) is questionable.
* Bulls guard Kirk Hinrich (elbow) is OUT indefinitely.
* Jazz forward Gordon Hayward (shoulder) is OUT.
* Rockets guard James Harden (ankle) is doubtful.
* Clippers guard Chauncey Billups (back) is questionable.
College Basketball Point Spreads, Betting Guide and Picks
By: The Linemakers
Sportingnews.com
Duke-North Carolina tends to overshadow everything else in college basketball, even when one of those teams is down like the Tar Heels are this season. But Wednesday brings plenty of attractive matchups outside Tobacco Road, with 11 ranked teams in action.
No. 3 Miami, which this year became the only ACC team to beat both Duke and UNC by at least 25 points in the same season, visits Florida State as a 6-point favorite. The Hurricanes – on an 11-0 SU and 9-2 ATS run – start four seniors and sophomore point guard Shane Larkin, son of baseball great Barry Larkin. The son is shooting 61.5 percent in the last four games, averaging 16.5 points and 5.5 assists.
The Hurricanes don’t seem to be basking in the glory of their highest-ever ranking and projected No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Or getting worn down by the pressure.
“If we saw signs of fatigue or signs of anxiety, we’d address it,” coach Jim Larranaga told the Miami Herald. “But right now, we see signs of hunger. These guys are hungry and yet they remain very, very humble. They understand that this is a once in a lifetime experience.”
NCAA Tournament odds: Miami getting plenty of respect
Miami hasn’t won in Tallahassee since 2006.
But Florida State looks nothing like the team that won the ACC tourney last season. Although the Seminoles have won 12 of the last 15 meetings with Miami, they weren’t competitive in Coral Gables on Jan. 27, losing 71-47 as 9.5-point dogs.
FSU is on a 3-5 SU and 1-7 ATS skid overall, and an 0-4 ATS run at home.
Except for the Seminoles’ 77-72 loss to North Carolina on Jan. 12, they’ve trailed by at least 22 points in the second half of their other four ACC defeats.
“We could make changes,” coach Leonard Hamilton told Tallahassee.com. “But I’m not real sure anyone has stepped up. We might change for the sake of changing, but it’s not because someone is outplaying someone. But we might have a different approach to some things.”
He’s not exactly exuding confidence as the ‘Noles welcome the nation’s hottest team.
No. 3 Miami (19-3 SU, 15-4 ATS) at Florida State (13-10 SU, 9-12 ATS), 7 p.m. ET, ESPN2
Line: Miami -6, Total: 127
Trends:
Miami is 6-2 ATS in its last eight road games.
Miami is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 ACC games.
Florida State is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games.
Florida State is 0-4 ATS in its last four home games.
Under is 6-2 in Miami’s last eight road games.
Under is 12-4-1 in Miami’s last 17 games.
Under is 7-1 in Florida State’s last eight games.
Miami is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
The Linemakers' lean: Miami is 10-0 in the ACC and has moved to No. 3 in the country, but the Hurricanes have not won on this floor since 2006. Florida State is hard to figure. The Seminoles are 5-1 in the ACC in games decided by five points or less, but have been blown out in the other contests. And after being dealt a 71-47 defeat by Miami earlier this season, it's payback time for FSU. There were also reports on Tuesday that Kenny Kadji of Miami hurt his shoulder in practice, so check his status before making your wagering decision. We think the good Seminoles show up for this one. The value is with the points.
No. 6 Syracuse (20-3 SU, 12-7 ATS) at Connecticut (16-6 SU, 9-9 ATS), 7 p.m. ET, ESPN
Line: Syracuse -4 , Total: 134
This is Syracuse senior forward James Southerland’s second game back since a six-game, academic-related suspension. He’s expected to keep coming off the bench, like he did Sunday when he scored 13 points against St. John’s.
"As soon as he got his rhythm, he was the same old James knocking down shots," guard Michael Carter-Williams said. "He's a big presence in our offense. It means a lot having him back. It makes us a lot more dangerous."
Connecticut has won four of five after starting 2-3 in the Big East. Junior guard Shabazz Napier (17.2 points per game) leads four players averaging in double figures, but the Huskies struggle on the glass. They rank second to last in the Big East with a minus-4.3 rebounding margin. Syracuse is third at plus-5.5.
Trends:
Syracuse is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 Wednesday games.
Connecticut is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 Big East games.
Connecticut is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 home games vs. teams with .600-plus road winning percentages.
Over is 4-0 in UConn’s last four games.
Over is 16-5 in UConn’s last 21 Big East games.
Over is 6-2 in Syracuse’s last eight road games vs. teams with winning home records.
Underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.
The Linemakers' lean: Syracuse has won six of the past seven in this series, most of those against some pretty good UConn squads. The Orange beat the Huskies three times last year. James Southerland is back for the Orange, who are flying a little under the radar nationally right now. Syracuse has a big edge on the boards tonight and has just too many weapons for UConn to deal with. The price is right. Lay the points.
No. 23 Oregon (19-5 SU, 9-13 ATS) at Washington (13-11 SU, 13-9 ATS), 11 p.m. ET, ESPN2
Line: Washington -2, Total: 138
Oregon snapped its three-game skid by beating Utah, but failed to cover for the sixth straight time. The Ducks could really use freshman point guard Dominic Artis (10.2 points, 3.8 assists). He’s missed five straight games with a left foot injury, and it’s unclear if he’ll play Wednesday. Starting in his place, Johnathan Loyd is averaging 4.8 points on 21.4 percent shooting.
The Ducks have lost three straight and 11 of 12 at Washington. In the first meeting this season, the Ducks won 81-76 at home, failing to cover as 7.5-point faves.
Trends:
Oregon is 0-6 ATS in its last six games.
Washington is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games following a SU loss.
Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last five Pac-12 games.
Under is 9-3 in Oregon’s last 12 games.
Under is 7-0 in Washington’s last seven Wednesday games.
Over is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings.
Washington is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings at home.