Wednesday Tips
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Thunder at Heat
Oklahoma City: 36-10 SU, 27-19 ATS
Miami: 32-12 SU, 19-25 ATS
The Thunder is clicking right now even with Russell Westbrook sidelined due to a knee injury. Oklahoma City has won eight consecutive games, including Monday's comeback victory over Atlanta, as Kevin Durant has eclipsed the 30-point mark in 11 straight contests. Durant's late jumper against the Hawks gave OKC the 111-109 win, but the Thunder failed to cover as 10-point favorites, snapping a seven-game ATS hot streak. However, Oklahoma City looks to end a six-game skid against Miami dating back to the 2012 NBA Finals.
The last time the Thunder defeated the Heat was in Game 1 of those Finals, as Miami captured the final four games of that series to claim the second title in franchise history. The Heat swept the season series in 2012-13, including a 103-97 triumph as 2½-point home favorites on Christmas day. Erik Spoelstra's team has won the first three games on their current homestand, topped off by a 12-point victory over the Spurs on Sunday. The Heat owns an 8-1 SU and 5-4 ATS home record against Western Conference foes with the lone defeat coming to the Warriors in early January.
Rockets at Mavericks
Houston: 29-17 SU, 22-22-2 ATS
Dallas: 26-20 SU, 26-20 ATS
The Rockets play with no rest against another Lone Star State foe following Tuesday's home contest against the Spurs. James Harden missed the game with a thumb injury, as his status is up in the air for Wednesday's matchup at Dallas, the final regular season meeting between the two state rivals. After Houston took the first meeting in early November, Dallas has won the last two matchups, as all three games have finished 'over' the total.
The Mavericks are seeking consecutive victories since putting together a three-game winning streak earlier this month, as Dallas is just 3-4 the last seven trips to the court. Rick Carlisle's club shot a scorching 58% from the field in Sunday's 116-106 home triumph over the Pistons, while covering as 6½-point favorites. Dallas is scoring plenty of points at the American Airlines Center of late, topping the 110-point mark in five straight home contests (3-2 to the 'over').
Bobcats at Nuggets
Charlotte: 19-27 SU, 24-20-2 ATS
Denver: 22-21 SU, 21-22 ATS
The Bobcats head west for a four-game road swing as Charlotte tries to get on track. After leading scorer Kemba Walker sprained his ankle in an overtime loss to the Heat, the Bobcats captured consecutive home 'dog wins over the Raptors and Clippers. However, Charlotte was humbled in back-to-back losses to New York and Chicago, while scoring 96 points or less in three straight games. The Bobcats are just 1-7 SU/ATS the last eight road underdog opportunities, while going 7-1 to the 'over' in the past eight away contests.
The Nuggets have won two straight following a three-game skid, including Sunday's 125-117 triumph at Sacramento as 3½-point road favorites. Denver has come back to life recently by winning eight of their last 12, while returning to an uptempo style by cashing the 'over' in 11 of the past 13 contests. The Nuggets have lost only once to the Bobcats at the Pepsi Center in eight meetings, as all seven victories by Denver have come by double-digits.
Bulls at Spurs
Chicago: 22-22 SU, 20-24 ATS
San Antonio: 33-11 SU, 22-22 ATS
The Bulls head to the highway for six consecutive games against Western Conference foes, as the first stop takes place in San Antonio. Chicago started January winning nine of their first 11 games, but the Bulls have dropped two of their last three contests, including Monday's home defeat to Minnesota. Since Christmas, Tom Thibodeau's club owns a solid 6-1 SU/ATS record away from the United Center, including outright underdog victories over the Nets, Grizzlies, and Cavaliers.
The Spurs return to the AT&T Center following Tuesday's contest at Houston, as San Antonio will play just two home games before heading back on the road for its annual "Rodeo Trip" on Monday. Gregg Popovich's squad has covered just once in the last four home contests, while dropping games to the Thunder and Blazers at the Alamo in the past two weeks. The Bulls have held their own against the Spurs over the last four seasons, winning four of the past seven matchups, but San Antonio swept the two-game set last season.
Game of the Day: Thunder at Heat
By Covers.com
Oklahoma City Thunder at Miami Heat (-4, 204)
Kevin Durant's recent scoring barrage has moved him front and center in the race for the NBA's most valuable player award. On Wednesday Durant will come face-to-face with the greatest challenge to his MVP quest as he leads the Oklahoma City Thunder into Miami to face LeBron James and the powerhouse Heat. Durant has scored 30 or more points in 11 straight games, the main catalyst behind the Thunder's eight-game winning streak.
Durant is on the fast track to his fourth NBA scoring title, but faces one of his toughest assignments of the year - tasked with scoring on, and defending, the four-time league MVP and two-time defending NBA champion. James' numbers have taken a tumble in recent years, but he remains the most productive player on a team that sits second in the Eastern Conference. James will have help, too, as Dwyane Wade returns to the starting lineup.
LINE HISTORY: Miami opened -4.5 and was bet down to -4. The total opened 204 in Las Vegas and was bet down to 203.5.
POWER RANKINGS: Thunder (-12.5) - Heat (-14.3) + Home Court (-3.0) = Heat -4.8
KEY INJURIES: Thunder: Russell Westbrook (Out - knee), Heat: Dwyane Wade (Probable - knee)
WHAT BOOKS SAY: "Most of the main rival teams at the top - Indiana, San Antonio, L.A. Clippers - would be +5 and bigger in Miami, but Oklahoma City and Durant are getting respect for how they are playing without Westbrook. Even though Durant is getting all the accolades for his recent play, and rightfully so – hes the current MVP frontrunner, the Thunder have the inside matchup edge with Perkins and Ibaka, plus Collison and Adams off the bench." -- Aron Black, Bet365.com.
WHY BET THE THUNDER (36-10 SU, 27-19 ATS, 22-24 O/U): Durant isn't just shooting his way to superstardom - he's thinking his way around defensive schemes designed to shut him down. Durant hit the game-winning shot in Monday's narrow victory over the Atlanta Hawks, and said afterward that he was successful because he had seen the game-ending defensive setup before. "This is the third team we played that's been under that San Antonio umbrella," he said of the Hawks' approach. "They brought that (double-team). And they were bold enough to do it in the fourth quarter." Durant averages 29.3 points in 12 career games against the Heat.
WHY BET THE HEAT (32-12 SU, 19-25 ATS, 27-17 O/U): Wade was given the green light to join the starting five after coming off the bench in Sunday's one-sided win over the San Antonio Spurs. Wade, who scored eight points in 24 minutes in a reserve role, relishes the challenge of facing the team with the best record in the West. "I asked (head coach Eric Spoelstra) to take me out as a starter that one game, but I didn't ask him to do it the whole year," Wade told reporters Monday. "So we can stop that conversation." Miami is an Eastern Conference-best 12-2 against West foes.
TRENDS:
* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Thunder are 0-6 ATS in the last six meetings.
* Thunder are 0-5 ATS in the last five meetings in Miami.
CONSENSUS PICK: 54 % on Oklahoma City +4, 75 % on Over 204