NBA betting trends, odds and predictions for Wednesday, June 7th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
NBA Knowledge
Warriors dominated first two Finals games, winning by 22-19 points; Cleveland was even +11 in turnovers in Game 2 and lost by 19, after being -16 in TO’s in Game 1. Golden State is 14-0 in playoffs, 6-0 on road, also covering all six road games— they won their last three games with Cleveland, by 35-22-19 points. Last four series games stayed under the total; under is 7-2-1 in last 10 series tilts. Warriors lost three of last four visits to Cleveland, with lone win in Game 4 of LY’s Finals. Over is 5-1 in Warriors’ last six games. Cavaliers are 5-1 at home in playoffs (2-4 vs spread, all as favorites)- five of those six games went over.
Armadillosports.com
NBA Finals Game 3 Preview
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com
Golden State at Cleveland
To defend the championship, you must defend the Land.
The Cavaliers have known this would be key for months and managed to come through, by and large. Despite punting on the regular-season finale, they matched San Antonio for the NBA's second-best home record (31-10) behind Golden State and have won five of six in these playoffs, surprisingly falling in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference finals against Boston.
Although the first two games of the 2017 NBA Finals didn't inspire much confidence, this do-or-die situation isn't ominously overwhelming. Cleveland has been here before. Last year, it fell behind 2-0 before rallying for a 120-90 rout, surging out 17-4, winning the first quarter 33-16 and posting a 69-47 edge in the second half. Not only did the Cavs get back in the series, they set the tone for the comeback with a dominant performance, ultimately prevailing in three consecutive elimination games.
The Warriors were a one-point favorite for Game 3 last year, opened as a 2-point favorite on Sunday and is settling in at around 3.5 points, possibly rising to four with the betting public favoring another win.
Four teams have rallied from 2-0 series deficits to ultimately capture the NBA championship. The Cavs are one of them. That matters immensely because you can't otherwise replicate the confidence it's going to take to pull it off again. Golden State won an all-time best 73 regular-season games last season but all anyone remembers is that it blew a 3-1 series deficit.
That's one of the few reasons this series can't responsibly be declared over. Although we've seen the Cavs get thoroughly dominated through two games, they've actually lost by fewer points to this version of Warriors than they did at this point last year.
The major difference is that this series features current Finals MVP frontrunner Kevin Durant instead of Harrison Barnes. Durant is averaging 35.5 points, 11.0 rebounds and 7.0 assists and must again be the difference if the Warriors are to remain undefeated this postseason.
Game 3 will decide whether we may have to strap in for a long potential classic or whether Golden State will be favored to sweep on Friday to complete an unprecedented 16-0 run. The Warriors are 10-4 against the spread, covering five in a row. They've already set a record by winning 14 straight in the same postseason and have swept through six straight playoff road games after going an NBA-best 31-10 outside Oracle during the regular season. All six playoff roadies have seen the Warriors cover the number, albeit only barely on a few occasions.
This will be the seventh straight time they'll be favored on the road on their title quest, and the first time the Cavs aren't chalk at the Q this postseason.
The biggest takeaway from Tuesday's media availability was LeBron James asserting that the Cavs "don't play slow-down basketball." Defiantly, he responded that they'll look to play at the pace they're most comfortable with, which is accelerated. He even mustered up a sarcastic laugh when pressed on whether attempting to run with the Warriors was wise given what transpired in Oakland.
Visibly tired after recording a triple-double with nearly half the third quarter still left, James has to get more help in the first half to have enough gas to properly finish in the second. Both Games 1 and 2 featured competitive first halves and dominant play from the Warriors in the second as their superior depth and shot-making came into play.
Pace certainly had a lot to do with that. Consider that both teams had 31 first-quarter possessions and each shot 52 percent, but the Warriors surged ahead and appeared most comfortable. With Steph Curry drawing 10 free throws and the Cavs also getting into the bonus quickly, there were 74 points scored. Tyronn Lue told Doris Burke he thought his defensive game plan was a "pretty good" one despite surrendering 40 points. That's wild.
James and Cavs Lue are delusional if they think they're going to consistently get the better of the Warriors in a track meet. They've got to find a way to disrupt their rhythm on the offensive end while also making the game more physical. Imposing their will on the boards was a major key entering the series, and Cleveland has come up empty thus far. Slowing things down would likely help its role players get a firmer grip on their strengths.
Lue said no changes to the starting lineup are coming despite Tristan Thompson averaging just 4 points and 4 boards thus far. It's no secret him being neutralized has really thrown Cleveland for a loop since he was so effective against the East. J.R. Smith shooting just 1-for-6 and scoring just three points with no assists over 42 minutes has also been a major x-factor. Iman Shumpert's over-aggressiveness has also been a major concern.
There was talk Kyrie Irving was battling knee issues as he slumped to Sunday's 8-for-23 shooting night, so if a couple of days in between games can't get him right, there's truly no hope for Cleveland. Kevin Love has been reliable and looks healthy, averaging 21 points and 14 rebounds for the series. If Irving can be effective, Love can maintain and the role players step up, the Cavs are in a position to battle back.
"You know, when you're out there and they're going at a high tempo, you're definitely like ok, that week that we just had did nothing for us," a candid Irving said. "There's nothing that can imitate KD popping behind the 3-point line and shooting a shot that you've contested or Steph Curry coming off a pin-down and guys setting good screens, so we used Games 1 and 2 and we got our ass kicked. We're here at Game 3 and we have a challenge in front of us."
James has been in an 0-2 hole five times in his career and has won Game 3 four times, beating Detroit twice in '06 and '07, Boston in '08 and Golden State in this position in last year's Finals. The only time he's lost in this situation, Cleveland went on to be swept out of the '07 Finals by San Antonio.
A decade after that demise, LeBron has got a far superior supporting cast, three championships and a wealth of experience under his belt. He'll lead the way. We'll see who follows.
Golden State knows that given everything that went down in 2016, this Game 3 is crucial. We'll see what killer instinct the Warriors have packed as Steve Kerr coaches his first road game of these playoffs. Already, it appears the team is wary of overconfidence and knows they're in for a fight, which could alter their role as the aggressor.
"We've got to just be able to take that first initial punch," Andre Iguodala said. "Anything they throw in the game, be ready to adjust to it. The longer it takes, the more confidence they get. We just have to be mentally prepared to withstand the runs that they make at us, or the small adjustments they make, and be able to counter it."
The tempo that's employed early on should dictate what kind of game develops. Bettors playing the ‘over’ (222) in Game 2 were lighting up cigars midway through the fourth quarter as the high side connected early. The pair combined for 131 points in the first-half and never looked back as Cleveland tried to play keep-up with Golden State.
The oddsmakers sent out an opener of 225½ for Game 3 and bettors quickly pushed the number up to 226½. A couple betting shops were holding 227 as of Tuesday afternoon.
VegasInsider.com NBA analyst Chris David weighed in on the total for Wednesday’s matchup.
“I’m not surprised the books made an adjustment upwards for Game 3 and it’s hard to argue to the ‘under’ just based on the way Cleveland has been playing. For whatever reason Tyronn Lue believes his squad can outrun Golden State and if he doesn’t make a change, then this series will be over in four games. Including Sunday’s result, the Warriors are now 9-1 in its last 10 playoff games against Cleveland when scoring triple digits. The Cavaliers received a ton of extra possessions in Game 2 due to 20 turnovers by Golden State but they couldn’t take advantage of them. They took a postseason-high 100 shots and the fast pace played into the style of the Warriors, who are much more efficient in the open court,” said David.
“While I believe the total is inflated for Game 3, it’s hard to imagine that Lue and company are going to make any drastic changes due to the personnel of his team. I would expect the Cavaliers to come out with a lot of energy on Wednesday and likely play fast out of the gate, which could have me leaning to the ‘over’ (58½) in the first quarter and that ticket has already cashed twice in this series. I would also advise keeping an eye on the second-half numbers, which could present value if Cleveland manages to take a lead.”
Cleveland has watched the ‘over’ go 5-1 at home in this year’s playoffs and it’s helped the cause with some solid offensive numbers (114.5 PPG) and a below average defense (105.7 PPG). Meanwhile, Golden State is 5-1 to the ‘over’ on the road.
NBA Finals Game 3 Betting Preview: Warriors at Cavaliers
Covers.com
Golden State Warriors at Cleveland Cavaliers (+3.5, 226)
The Cleveland Cavaliers didn't put up much of a fight while losing the first two games of the NBA Finals and aim to start a turnaround when they host the Golden State Warriors on Wednesday. Cleveland fell into a hole last season as well before winning the final three games to beat the Warriors and claim the title.
Golden State coach Steve Kerr knows his team won the first two games by an average of 20.5 points but he hasn't forgotten what occurred last season. "Well, it's been a great run but none of that matters unless we can finish the job with this series," Kerr told reporters. "Trust me, we know. It was 2-0 last year, we lost." The Cavaliers aren't willing to count on a comeback and know it might be even harder work to get back in the series this time around. "As much as the comparison wants to be drawn from last year to this year, this is a totally different team," Cleveland point guard Kyrie Irving said after Game 2. "There is no comparison even though we're down 0-2 going back home."
LINE HISTORY: The Warriors opened as two-point road favorites following Sunday's convincing win in Game 2 and the public continues to bet them which has pushed the point spread up to 3.5. The total hit the betting board at 225.5 and has been bumped up slightly to 226. Check out the complete line history here.
WHAT SHARPS SAY: "It will be interesting to see if history repeats itself in the NBA Finals this year. Just like last season, the Warriors have gone 2-0 SU/ATS at home in the first two games. Golden State came out flat in Game 3 last year and lost by 30 points at Cleveland. The situation is similar, but also different this year. While the Warriors once again have a 2-0 series lead, they also have the memory of blowing a 3-1 series lead last year and losing the championship. Golden State now has Kevin Durant on the team and the Cavaliers have been unable to stop him. Durant was been the leading scorer in both Games 1 & 2 with 38 and 33 points. The oddsmakers have made a substantial line adjustment based on the recent results. The initial look-ahead line for Game 3 was Cleveland -2 when this series began last week, and now the Cavaliers are a +3/+3.5 point home underdog." - Steve Merril.
INJURY REPORT:
Warriors - SF K. Looney (Out Indefinitely, hip).
Cavaliers - C E. Tavares (Out For Season, hand), SG I. Shumpert (Probable, conditioning), PG K. Irving (Probable, knee).
ABOUT THE WARRIORS (81-15 SU, 50-43-3 ATS, 42-54-0 O/U): Golden State has rolled to 14 consecutive postseason victories and seems even harder to beat with small forward Kevin Durant playing superbly and averaging 35.5 points, 11 rebounds and seven assists in the series. "I'm not going to take a step back," Durant told reporters of his team's 2-0 lead. "We know this is far from over. We know how hard it is to be the best team in the league." Point guard Stephen Curry is averaging 30 points 10.5 assists and eight rebounds in the series and shooting guard Klay Thompson displayed signs of breaking out of a postseason slump by scoring 22 points on 8-of-12 shooting in Game 2.
ABOUT THE CAVALIERS (63-34 SU, 44-49-4 ATS, 57-39-1 O/U): Cleveland has collapsed in the third quarter of each of the first two games as it wilted under Golden State's offensive firepower. Both coach Tyronn Lue and star forward LeBron James insist the Cavaliers won't try to slow down play and will stick with the style they prefer. "That's not our game. We don't play slowdown basketball," James told reporters. "We play at our pace. We play our game. We got to this point playing our way. We have won a lot of games playing the way we play, so we're not going to change."
TRENDS:
* Warriors are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 road games.
* Cavaliers are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. Western Conference.
* Over is 7-1 in Warriors last 8 road games.
* Over is 7-0 in Cavaliers last 7 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
* Home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
CONSENSUS: 56 percent of users are siding with the road favorite Golden State Warriors and 61 percent are on the Over.
Desperate Cavs host Warriors in Game 3
By: StatFox.com
The Cavaliers will be trying to get back into the series with a win in Game 3 on Wednesday.
The Warriors are 29-1 in their past 30 games, and they’ll continue their quest for a perfect 16-0 record in the postseason on Wednesday. Golden State has been downright dominant to open up this series, winning the first two games by an average of 20.5 points per game. The Warriors have now won-and-covered in five straight and seven of the past eight, and they’ll feel extremely confident when they head to Quicken Loans Arena on Wednesday. The Cavaliers, meanwhile, are obviously facing a must-win situation. They were blown out at Oracle Arena, but a series doesn’t truly start until somebody wins on the road. Cleveland also was in this exact situation a year ago and ended up winning the series in seven games. The Cavaliers will, however, need to find a way to play better defensively. They allowed the Warriors to shoot 51.7% from the floor in Game 2, and they are not going to win if they play that way again. One trend that favors Golden State in this game is the fact that the team is 13-2 ATS off two consecutive home wins of 10 points or more this season. Cleveland, meanwhile, is 14-4 ATS in home games revenging a road loss versus an opponent of 10 points or more over the past three seasons.
PG Stephen Curry (28.8 PPG, 6.3 APG, 5.9 RPG, 1.9 SPG; all players stats from postseason) was remarkable in Game 2, finishing the contest with 32 points, 11 assists, and 10 rebounds. He was making all sorts of plays on the offensive end, but he does need to find a way to limit his turnovers. Curry can get a bit carried away with his desire to put on a show for the fans, and that led him to coughing it up eight times on Sunday. It’s important that he cleans things up on the road. SF Kevin Durant (26.9 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 4.3 APG, 1.4 BPG), meanwhile, has been virtually flawless in this series. He is averaging 35.5 PPG in this series, and he also had five blocks in Game 2. He’s been an absolute stud on both ends of the floor, and he’s playing like a guy that badly wants the Finals MVP. PF Draymond Green (13.4 PPG, 8.6 RPG, 6.7 APG, 1.9 SPG, 1.9 BPG) andSG Klay Thompson (14.4 PPG) also continue to play well for this team. Both guys have been playing stellar defense, but Thompson actually found his stroke in Game 2. That is bad news for Cleveland, as this team is impossible to guard when both Curry and Thompson are hitting from deep.
SF LeBron James (32.0 PPG, 8.7 RPG, 7.5 APG, 2.1 SPG, 1.4 BPG) has looked like the best player on the floor through the first three quarters of both games in this series, but he has also seemed completely gassed by the time the final period comes around. The team badly needs James to be at full strength late in games, so perhaps a change in his approach to these games will benefit Cleveland. One thing he definitely would be wise to do is get in the post more. He can almost certainly find a way to score easily in the paint against Golden State, and it would allow PG Kyrie Irving (24.1 PPG, 5.5 APG, 1.3 SPG) to do the hard job of getting the ball up the floor. Irving needs to act more as a facilitator in the next few games, so James setting up inside would help him do that. He’d be playing a bit less off-ball, but that is a change that should help this team. It’s clear Irving needs to do something a bit differently, as the Cavaliers can’t win with him playing the way he is now. C Tristan Thompson (8.5 PPG, 8.6 RPG) also needs to change something fast. He has been a no-show in this series, and he was one of the most consistent performers for the Cavaliers in last year’s Finals. PF Kevin Love (17.7 PPG, 10.9 RPG), meanwhile, has been great for Cleveland. He is grabbing boards at a high clip, and he is also scoring when called upon.