NBA Betting News and Notes Wednesday, June 8

NBA Knowledge

Cleveland-Golden State

Warriors won last seven games with Cleveland, beating Cavaliers in six games in LY's Finals; Warriors are 3-4 on road in playoffs, with at least one road loss in each series- they won last three in Cleveland, by 34-8-21 points. Cavaliers are 12-4 in playoffs, 7-0 at home. Guards on Cleveland aren't as long, athletic as Thunder's, a problem against Curry-Thompson. Cavaliers were up 30-22 in last game; still lost by 33. Last four Golden State games, last three Cavalier games stayed under the total.

Playoff tally: Favorites vs spread: 26-18, Over: 13-31

Second round: Favorites: 13-8, over: 12-9

Conference final: Favorites: 7-6, over: 5-7-1

Final: Favorites: 2-0, Over: 0-2

Armadillosports.com

NBA Finals Game 3 Betting Preview
By Covers.com

Golden State Warriors at Cleveland Cavaliers (pick, 205.5)

The Golden State Warriors won the first two games of the NBA Finals by an average of 24 points, leaving the host Cleveland Cavaliers facing a dire situation entering Wednesday's Game 3. Not only has Cleveland been annihilated in the first two contests but power forward Kevin Love is listed as questionable due to a concussion suffered during Sunday's 110-77 loss.

Love's availability will be decided on Wednesday but what is more certain is that the Cavaliers - including forward LeBron James - need to step up their play after their embarrassing showing on Sunday. "We're still here and we have a chance to turn this series around if we come in and do what we need to do both offensively and defensively," James told reporters. "Internally, we have to figure out how we can be better. We have to figure out how we can help one another. We definitely have to figure out how we can get more guys involved." One more victory will allow the Warriors to supplant the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls (87 wins) for the most overall wins in a season but point guard Stephen Curry made it clear his team isn't about to relax with a 2-0 series lead. "There's no point in celebrating or jumping up and down and saying, 'Look at us,'" Curry told reporters. "We're two games away from winning a championship. We still have to go out and get the job done. It's a trap to think that we've figured things out and that we have the perfect formula to beat Cleveland and they have no chance in the series."

LINE HISTORY: The Cavaliers opened as one-point favorites at home for Game 3 despite their awful performance in Games 1 and 2 in Golden State. The public jumped all over the Warriors and by Monday afternoon the line had jumped the fence and the Dubs were favored at most books. The public action took another turn and the line began to creep back toward the Cavs on Tuesday afternoon - by Tuesday evening the line had settled in as a Pick. There's no telling which way the line will turn on gameday. Keep your eyes on the line history here.

ABOUT THE WARRIORS (87-14, 58-41-2 ATS, 52-48-1 O/U): Do-it-all forward Draymond Green added knockdown 3-point shooter to his resume in Game 2 as he made five 3-pointers while contributing 28 points, seven rebounds and five assists and playing his typical sturdy defense. "The way they're guarding us, Draymond's open a lot," Golden State coach Steve Kerr told reporters. "So he becomes our safety valve when there's pressure. He becomes an open shooter when they're jumping out at Steph or Klay (Thompson), so it's a good situation for him." Curry and Thompson each made four 3-pointers in Game 2 but neither player has produced a high-scoring game with Curry averaging 14.5 points and Thompson just 13.

ABOUT THE CAVALIERS (69-29, 46-49-3 ATS, 48-50 O/U): Love didn't practice on Tuesday and must clear the concussion protocol before he can play but James' comments made it sound like Cleveland already knows Love is unlikely to be on the floor. "It's going to be the next man up. We're down 0-2, and we can't afford to look and say, 'Wow, Kev's not playing. What are we going to do?'" James told reporters after practice. "It's next man up, because it's a must-win for us. So obviously his health is very important, but in the situation we're in now, we've got to stay confident. And whoever Coach decides to give the nod to has got to be ready to go, and everybody else has to step up." If Love sits out, veteran shooter Channing Frye will likely play a larger role and little-used Timofey Mozgov will be a bigger part of the rotation.

TRENDS:

* Warriors are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
* Cavaliers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games.
* Under is 6-0 in Warriors last 6 vs. Eastern Conference.
* Over is 5-0 in Cavaliers last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
* Warriors are 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.

CONSENSUS: At the time of publication of this preview the Warriors were picking up 51 percent of the wagers and Over was grabbing 54 percent of the action.

NBA Finals Game 3 Preview
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com

Cleveland at Golden State (-1/206.5)

We’ve reached the point in the NBA Finals where all clichés apply.

Since the favorite won both home games, Game 3 is a must-win for the team returning home to lick their wounds after being outscored by an average of 107-83. The old playoff adage is that a series doesn’t start unless the home team loses, but since a 3-0 deficit is basically insurmountable, the Cavaliers’ chances are effectively over if they don’t win.

Because the venue change favors Cleveland and LeBron James is involved, oddsmakers are giving the Eastern Conference champs the benefit of the doubt by calling this a pick’em, respecting the homecourt edge in spite of what we’ve seen transpire to date. After all, Golden State has won the first two games by only 48 points thus far, an NBA record.

There’s an injury concern too, since forward Kevin Love must clear the NBA’s concussion protocol. According to ESPN, he’s confident he’ll be able to play, but that won’t be official until closer to tip-off.

If Love can’t go, 7-foot center Timofey Mozgov, previously banished to the end of the bench for most of the postseason, is expected to have a larger role. While everything tangible seems to favor the Warriors, trends and the expectation that the Cavs will be able to atone for a dismal 110-77 Game 2 loss do fuel faith in the Cavs, especially since Golden State has historically been a letdown in this spot.

"The Warriors have dominated through the first two games of the NBA Finals, but Golden State has struggled in Game 3's of the playoffs the last two seasons. This postseason, the defending champions lost to the Rockets by one point in Game 3 of the opening round and 12 points of Game 3 in the second round to the Blazers," VegasInsider.com NBA expert Kevin Rogers said. "Granted, Stephen Curry missed both those games due to injury, but he played in the Game 3 blowout loss of the Western Conference Finals at Oklahoma City.

"In the role of a road favorite, the Warriors are 0-6 ATS since the start of the 2015 playoffs in Game 3's, which includes a setback in last season's NBA Finals at Cleveland. However, if the Warriors get flipped to a road underdog on Wednesday, the champs have been successful as Golden State rolled Houston in Game 3 of last season's Western Conference Finals, 115-80 in their only 'dog opportunity in this situation.”

We’ll see which way the money moves the line, but Golden State is well aware of their struggles away from Oakland, sporting a 3-4 record (straight up and against the spread) in road games this postseason. Their last opportunity in this spot came in that must-win Game 6 comeback conquest at Oklahoma City, so they’re looking to build off that performance. Emotional leader Draymond Green has already said it’s on him to have his teammates ready to play. For the Cavs, it’s all on the King, who has led his team to a perfect 7-0 mark in Cleveland these playoffs, bringing their record to 40-8 (.800) on the season.

The beauty of the NBA Finals is that you get to hear a variety of voices commenting about the show unfolding in front of them. Everyone from Magic Johnson to Larry King to Jerry West has chimed in, as has Phil Jackson, who chose to put a comeback bid squarely on James’ shoulders while sharing his recollections of his top guy being put through the ringer the way James has been over the past few days.

"It did something to Michael Jordan," Jackson said of criticism directed at him after going down 2-0 in the 1993 Eastern Conference finals. "You learned something about pulling the cape of Superman. It's not a good idea. He was a man possessed after that. I think it's going to take something for LeBron to step into that. Put his cape on and say, 'I'm going to have to take over a lot of this series, doing the things beyond my level or my normal capacity.' He's been a team player up until this point but I think he's going to have to step beyond that."

So, to recap, the most decorated head coach in NBA history thinks LeBron needs to break character and become more aggressive in order to get his team back in the series. Go out and get your 50 points, LeBron. That’s what M.J. would’ve done.

"What does that actually mean?" James responded, when told of the ‘possessed’ advice. "I think, for me to go out and be who I am, and play as true to the game and as hard as I can, and try to lead this team as who I am. I’m not anybody else. I’m not Michael, I’m not (Muhammad) Ali, I’m not nobody else that’s done so many great things for sport. I am who I am, and if I’m able to go out and put together a game like that -- it wasn’t because I was possessed. It’s because I worked on my craft all season long, and that’s the result of it. Phil’s a great coach. Mike’s a great player. But I am who I am."

James has always been the ultimate team player, by far more Magic than Jordan. At his most effective, he liberates teammates to produce by creating opportunities with the attention he commands and his exceptional on-court IQ and passing skills. He’s dished out nine assists in each of the first two games and should’ve been in double-digits if teammates had knocked down more shots. Kyrie Irving is shooting 33 percent despite averaging 18 points per game, which is a drastic drop-off from what he did against the Eastern Conference these playoffs, posting a shooting clip of 48 percent and 23.5 points per game. Against Toronto, he averaged 25.3 points at home, shooting 57 percent. Cleveland is 6-1 this postseason when J.R. Smith scores in double-figures, but he’s scored a total of eight points in these Finals, shooting 2-for-7 from 3-point range.

Jackson might have meant well with his advice, but he’s dead wrong. James is going to need Irving and Smith to make shots so that his efficient game can flourish without him trying to force the action. In the 21st-century NBA, one player, not even Jordan, can defeat a team simply by becoming possessed. Especially not Golden State, which has taken the collective approach to the brink of becoming the winningest single-season team of all-time counting regular-season and playoffs.

The Warriors would be surpassing Jackson’s 1995-96 Bulls, who went 87-13 in winning it all two decades ago. Golden State comes into Game 3 of the NBA Finals at 87-14. It comes in having found its defensive chops, reminding everyone that there are two sides to its show. On that side of the ball, they’ve dominated of late, particularly in the second half of their last five games.

We’ll see if the Cavs believe it’s still best to try and run with the Warriors at an accelerated pace or attempt to slow things down and disrupt their rhythm, a formula that worked some last year.

The first two games in this series easily went ‘under’ the number and oddsmakers opened Game 3’s total at 206½. VegasInsider.com NBA Totals Expert Chris David doesn’t believe we’ll see a change in Cleveland.

"I still believe the value is with the ‘under’ and I’m very surprised the total isn’t lower. These teams have now played 10 times over the last two seasons and the ‘under’ has gone 6-3-1 in those games," said David. "It’s become very apparent that Cleveland doesn’t have the scheme or manpower to score on Golden State and believing that will change at home probably could be wishful thinking. Even though the Warriors have surrendered 112.5 PPG on the road in this year’s playoffs, the Cavs haven’t proven they could come close to those numbers for this particular matchup.

"Cleveland is averaging 90.7 PPG in its last 10 against Golden State, which includes the 89 and 77-point effort in this series. I’m well aware that Cleveland has played better at home in the playoffs, especially offensively (111 PPG) but the overused cliché of 'styles makes fights' fits perfectly in this series. In last year’s finals, the totals ranged from 193½ to 203½ and I’m not sure why we aren’t seeing similar numbers this summer. With all that being said, I’m buying the ‘under’ in Game 3 (206½) and I would also lean to Golden State’s team total ‘under’ of 103½."

The Cavs need to stop giving up easy buckets and ensure they make the Warriors work at both ends. Whether they go big or small, Cleveland has to find a flow that has eluded it. We’ll see if returning home helps the Eastern Conference champs regain their rhythm.

Currently, we’re watching James fail in another NBA Finals, but oddsmakers aren’t sold this is over yet. Curry, the unanimous MVP, hasn’t even played well in the series and has admitted his knee needs rest. Green has had issues with his energy level on the road, which has dragged down teammates. Intrigue remains in spite of Sunday’s massacre. Game 3 will either end the series or get it started again.

Warriors go for 3-0 lead
By Sportsbook.ag

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (87-14) at CLEVELAND CAVALIERS (69-29)

Sportsbook.ag Line: Golden State -1.5, Total: 206

The Warriors will be looking to take a 3-0 series lead when they face the Cavaliers in Game 3 on Wednesday.

This series has not been as competitive as people thought it would be, as Golden State won the first two games by a combined 48 points. The Warriors shot 49.4% from the field in Game 1 and 54.3% in Game 2 and they also held the Cavaliers to under 40.0% shooting from the field in each of those games.

If Cleveland is going to claw its way back into this series then the team is going to have to be a lot better on both ends of the floor. The hope for the Cavaliers is that the shift back to Quicken Loans Arena will give them some more energy. This Game 3 is ultimately a do-or-die, as the Cavaliers are not going to win two more games at Oracle Arena.

One trend that stands out when looking into this game is that the Warriors are 20-8 ATS versus teams that are making 36% or more of their three point attempts this season. They’re also facing a Cavaliers team that is 15-38 ATS in home games off of a road loss where the team scored less than 80 points since 1996 and 0-7 ATS after scoring 85 points or less this season. Cleveland is, however, an impressive 13-4 ATS after allowing 100 points or more in two straight games this season.

One major injury to point out is that PF Kevin Love (Concussion) is questionable for this one. He was hit in the head by an elbow in Game 2 and will need to clear the NBA’s concussion protocol if he is going to play in this one.

The Warriors are up 2-0 in this series and really cruised in both of their home games against this Cavs team. They will have a much harder time winning in Cleveland. If Golden State is going to take one or both of these road games then the team will need PG Stephen Curry (24.8 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 5.9 APG, 1.5 SPG in playoffs) and SG Klay Thompson (24.8 PPG, 1.1 SPG in playoffs) to step it up.

Curry and Thompson combined for just 20 points in Game 1 and 35 points in Game 2. Role players do, however, tend to play worse on the road and that means that the Warriors will likely need the “splash brothers” to go off in this one. They should have no trouble doing that, as Curry is shooting 41.0% from the outside in the postseason and Thompson is shooting an absurd 44.6% from deep.

PF Draymond Green (15.8 PPG, 9.7 RPG, 5.9 APG, 1.9 BPG, 1.7 SPG in playoffs) will need to continue to play well for Golden State. He had 28 points in Game 2 and continues to play well on both ends of the floor. If he can keep playing lockdown defense then what he does on offense will just be an added bonus. The Warriors have also gotten tremendous play from their bench and it’d be huge if that remains the case moving forward.

The Cavaliers are getting embarrassed in this series and SF LeBron James (24.1 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 7.3 APG, 2.3 SPG in playoffs) will need to be a lot better for his team. James has turned the ball over 11 times in this series and he is just 16-for-38 from the floor as well. Cleveland needs him to be more aggressive going to the basket, as he has the ability to draw fouls whenever he wants. He also must be a lot more careful with the ball, as the Warriors make teams pay off of turnovers.

James does need some help from his teammates and PG Kyrie Irving (23.5 PPG, 4.8 APG, 1.7 SPG in playoffs) and PF Kevin Love (16.5 PPG, 9.4 RPG in playoffs) have not been providing that. Irving had just 10 points on 5-for-14 shooting in Game 2 and has been horrible defensively. He needs to find a way to be more efficient on offense, but he also needs to make sure he holds his own on the defensive end.

Love, meanwhile, will need to be a lot better if he does end up playing in Game 3. He is just 9-for-24 from the floor in this series and has been exposed defensively as well. The Cavaliers need him to start knocking down some threes when he is healthy.