NBA betting trends, odds and predictions for Wednesday, March 1st, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
NBA Knowledge
Knicks lost seven of their last nine games; they’re 4-7 vs spread in their last 11 road games. Over is 9-4 in their last 13 games. Magic lost six of last eight games, is 3-9 vs spread in its last 12 home games. Four of last five Orlando games stayed under. Orlando is 6-4 in its last ten games with the Knicks, who lost three of last four visits to Orlando. Five of last seven series games stayed under.
Tough turnaround for Wizards, after they upset Golden State last nite. Washington won five of last seven games, is 6-2 vs spread in its last eight road games. Three of their last four games stayed under. Toronto won its last four games; they’re 4-6 vs spread in last 10 home games. Under is 5-1 in their last six games. Raptors won their last five games with Washington, winning last two meetings here by 3-17 points. Four of last five series games stayed under.
Philly lost three of last four games but they covered their last eight games, including last four on road. Six of their last eight games went over. Heat won 16 of last 19 games, is 8-2 vs spread in last ten home games. Under is 3-0 in Miami games since the All-Star break. 76ers lost six of last eight games with Miami; they lost last four visits to South Beach (2-1-1 vs spread). Over is 5-3 in last eight series games.
Dallas is 4-3 in its last seven games but they lost last three road games; Mavericks are 2-5 in last seven road games. Five of their last six games stayed under. Atlanta lost three of last four games, is 2-5 vs spread in last seven home games. Under is 4-0-1 in their last five games. Hawks won/covered their last six games with Dallas (under 5-1); Mavericks lost four of last five visits to Georgia (1-4 vs spread).
Cleveland won five of its last six games, is 5-2 vs spread in its last seven home games. Last four Cavalier games stayed under the total. Celtics lost three of last four games, are 0-6 vs spread in last six home games. Under is 3-0-1 in their last four games. Cavaliers won eight of last nine games with Boston; last three series games went over the total. Cleveland won/covered its last three visits to Beantown.
Denver is 0-6 vs spread in game following its last six wins; they’re 2-5 vs spread in last seven road games. Over is 6-3 in their last nine games. Bucks won four of last six games, are 2-5 SU in last seven at home. Over is 7-3 in their last ten home games. Nuggets won eight of last ten games with Milwaukee; three of last four series games went under the total. Denver lost by 8-18 points in its last two visits to Wisconsin. Denver is 4-6 vs spread on road if it played night before.
Detroit won three of last four games overall, but lost seven of last nine on road; five of their last seven games stayed under. New Orleans is 0-3 since All-Star break, losing by 40-13-8 points; they’re 0-4 vs spread in last four home games. Pelicans won right of last nine games with Detroit; six of last eight series games went over total. Pistons lost their last four visits to Bourbon Street (1-3 vs spread). Detroit is 2-6 vs spread on road if it played night before.
Indiana lost seven of last nine games, is 4-2-1 vs spread in last seven road games- their last five games stayed under total. San Antonio has its first home game in 25 days; they won/covered last four games overall, are 4-1 vs spread in last five home games. Under is 8-3 in their last 11 games. Spurs won five of last six games with Indiana, winning four of last five meetings here (3-2 vs spread). Three of last four series games stayed under total.
Timberwolves won three of last four games; they’re 5-3 vs spread in last eight home games. Four of their last five games stayed under. Utah won three of last four games; they’re 2-6 vs spread in last eight home games. Over is 7-3 in their last ten games. Jazz won their last five games with Minnesota (4-1 vs spread); three of last four series games stayed under. Wolves lost by 13-13 points in their last two visits to SLC. Utah is 4-7 vs spread if it played night before, 3-3 at home.
Rockets won six of last eight games, are 4-6 vs spread in last ten road games. Over is 5-3 in their last eight games. Clippers won five of last seven games, are 1-4 vs spread in last five home games. Four of their last six games stayed under total. Clippers lost five of last seven games with Houston, which won two of last three games here vs the Clippers. Eight of last ten series games went over the total.
Brooklyn lost its last 16 games- their last win was Jan 20. Nets are 6-2 vs spread in last eight road games. Over is 5-2 in their last seven games. Kings lost three of last four games, are 5-3 vs spread in last eight home games- their last six games stayed under the total. Nets are 7-3 in their last ten games with Sacramento, winning three of last five visits here; last five series games went over the total.
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NBA: Streaks, Tips, Notes
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Washington at Toronto
We are well into the second half of the season, and while there is still a lot of basketball to be played, teams are still looking to get a leg up in the playoff races in each conference. Over in the Eastern Conference, Toronto Raptors in a battle with Washington Wizards have an opportunity to take over third spot when the two teams collide in a home-home series starting Wednesday night north of the border with the finale at the Verizon Center in Washington Friday evening
In overall extended metrics, not much separates these two teams. Raptors 36-24 (33-26-1 ATS) net 110.9 in offensive efficiency metrics, allow 105.9 in defensive efficiency metrics. Wizards 35-23 (33-25 ATS) put 108.0 through the hole per 100 possesions while allowing opponents 105.3 per 100 possessions.
For Toronto supporters, the most depressing thought is that the Raptors will be without Lowry (wrist). On a positive note, the team is well positioned without their star guard. Joseph, Wright have been efficient in Lowry's absence and two key moves acquiring Serge Ibaka from Magic, P.J. Tucker from Suns adds toughness, scoring and a much needed boost on the defensive end.
Additionally, supporters can take comfort in knowing the Raptors have enjoyed regular season success vs Wizards winning twelve of the last thirteen meetings split between 6-1 (4-3 ATS) at the Air Canada Centre, 6-0 (5-1 ATS) on Verizon Center hardwood including a 10 point victory earlier this campaign.
Wednesday's Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Game of the Night – Rockets at Clippers (-2, 232½)
Two seasons ago, Houston erased a 3-1 series deficit in the second round of the playoffs to stun Los Angeles, 4-3. The Rockets fell short of the NBA Finals, but still made their mark against the Clippers, who have yet to make the conference finals in franchise history.
Los Angeles (36-23 SU, 30-29 ATS) is returning to health after point guard Chris Paul missed 14 games with a thumb injury. Paul dished out 17 assists and scored 15 points on 4-of-18 shooting in Sunday’s 124-121 overtime victory over the Hornets on Sunday. L.A. failed to cover as 10 ½-point favorites, while dropping to 1-4 ATS the last five games at Staples Center.
The Rockets (42-19 SU, 34-27 ATS) were tripped up by the Pacers on Monday as 9½-point favorites, 117-108, falling to 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games. Lou Williams has performed well off the bench for Houston since getting picked up from the Lakers by scoring 27, 17, and 28 points in three games with the Rockets. Houston struggled from downtown by hitting only 10-of-45 attempts from three-point range, while shooting 36% from the floor against Indiana.
In their first matchup this season at Toyota Center, the Rockets routed the Clippers, 140-116 as 11-point favorites on December 30. However, Paul and Blake Griffin both sat out due to injury for Los Angeles, while James Harden posted a triple-double for Houston with 30 points, 13 rebounds, and 10 assists. Each of the past five meetings at Staples Center have sailed OVER the total, while the two teams split a pair of matchups in Los Angeles last season.
Beasts of the East
The Cavaliers look to maintain the top spot in the Eastern Conference as they own a four-game cushion over the Celtics. Cleveland travels to Boston following a 9-2 record in February, coming off a 102-95 triumph over Milwaukee on Monday. LeBron James returned from his one-game absence to score 24 points on 8-of-12 shooting from the field, while Kyrie Irving posted a game-high 25 points. The Cavaliers have done an excellent job on the road with rest recently by producing a 4-0 SU/ATS record in their last four tries.
Boston looks to bounce back following Monday’s ugly home loss to Atlanta, as the Celtics hit the road for five games out west starting Friday in Los Angeles. The Celtics have failed to cash in their last six games at TD Garden, while losing a pair of games at Cleveland by six points each earlier this season. The Cavaliers have captured each of the last three meetings in Boston since the 2015 playoffs, holding the Celtics in those three victories to 95 points or fewer.
Life Without Lowry
The Raptors have rebounded from a three-game losing streak in mid-February to win four consecutive contests, including Monday’s 92-91 triumph at New York on DeMar DeRozan’s game-winning jumper. DeRozan’s backcourt mate Kyle Lowry is set to undergo wrist surgery and will likely be out for the remainder of the regular season. However, the Raptors are putting things together at home by winning five of the past six at Air Canada Center as Toronto hosts unrested Washington.
The Wizards head north of the border after knocking off the Warriors on Tuesday as seven-point underdogs, 112-108. Washington has stumbled to a 3-7 record on the second of a back-to-back set, but has managed a 5-5 ATS mark. The Wizards have cashed four of their previous five in the role of a road underdog, but have dropped five consecutive meetings with the Raptors, including a 113-103 home setback in early November.
Dallas Domination
The Hawks have won six consecutive matchups against the Mavericks since the start of the 2013-14 season as Dallas visits Atlanta. In the first meeting this season at American Airlines Center in January, the Hawks pulled away from the Mavs, 97-82, while holding Dallas to 39% shooting from the floor.
Dallas hits the road following consecutive home wins over New Orleans and Miami, while getting held to below 100 points in each of the last five games, resulting in four UNDERS. The Mavs’ offense has failed to produce in their last three road losses by scoring 87, 91, and 84 points as Dallas searches for its first victory in Atlanta since March 2013.
Boogie Down
DeMarcus Cousins has yet to win a game with his new team as the Pelicans are 0-3 since he was traded from the Kings in late February. Cousins won’t have a chance at a victory tonight as he is suspended for one game by the league after picking up his 18th technical foul in Sunday’s loss at Oklahoma City. New Orleans hosts Detroit, as the Pelicans own an 0-4 ATS home record since knocking off the Spurs in late January.
The Pistons head to the Big Easy off last night’s comeback victory in overtime against the Blazers to finish their homestand at 3-1 SU/ATS. Detroit has struggled with no rest this season by compiling a 2-8 SU/ATS mark on the second of a back-to-back, including a 2-6 SU/ATS ledger on the road. The Pistons haven’t seen much success in New Orleans over the years by losing seven straight visits.
Texas Two-Step
The Pacers rallied past the Rockets as 9 ½-point underdogs on Monday, 117-108, as Indiana continues its five-game road swing in San Antonio. In the last matchup with the Spurs on February 13, San Antonio held off Indiana, 110-106, the ninth win in the previous 10 meetings with the Pacers.
The Spurs are back at home for the first time since February 4 following their 6-2 Rodeo Trip, punctuated by consecutive wins in Los Angeles. San Antonio actually hits the highway once again on Friday to New Orleans, as the Spurs own a 4-2 SU and 2-4 ATS mark the last six seasons in their first home game back from the Rodeo Trip.
Head-to-Head Trends
The Knicks and Magic have split a pair of matchups at Madison Square Garden this season as the teams hook up in Orlando. The last three meetings in Orlando have finished UNDER the total as the Magic own a dreadful 1-11 record in their past 12 games off a win.
The 76ers and Heat meet for the final time in the regular season as the home team has won the first three matchups. Philadelphia snapped Miami’s 13-game winning streak last month, while the Heat are 9-1 SU and 8-1-1 ATS in their past 10 home contests.
The home team has won each of the past five meetings between the Nuggets and Bucks as the squads meet in Milwaukee. Denver is coming off an impressive victory at Chicago last night, but the Nuggets are 3-10 this season on the second of a back-to-back. The Bucks have slumped to a 1-6 ATS mark in their last seven as a home favorite.
Utah owns a 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS mark in the last five matchups with Minnesota as the Jazz captured a pair of victories at Target Center earlier this season. The division rivals battle in Salt Lake City this evening as the Jazz look to improve on a 3-7 ATS record in their past 10 as a home favorite.
The Nets and Kings wrap up the night in Sacramento as the last five matchups between these squads have eclipsed the OVER. Brooklyn has dropped 16 consecutive games, while Sacramento has compiled a 3-6 ATS ledger in its last nine opportunities as a home favorite.
Rockets, Clippers battle on Wednesday
By: Sam Chase
StatFox.com
The Rockets will be hoping to get back into the win column with a victory over the Clippers on Wednesday.
While they are solidly in third place in the Western Conference standings, the Houston Rockets have lost two of their last four games following a 117-108 home loss to the Pacers on Monday night (IND +10). Their previous loss was a 117-109 game against Miami on Feb. 15 (MIA +10), and they then won their first two games after the All-Star break against New Orleans and Minnesota. At 42-19 they have a 4.5-game lead on Utah for their No. 3 seed, and at 34-27 against the spread they have the fifth-best ATS record in the league. They’ll retake the floor on Thursday night in Los Angeles against the Clippers, who lost to Golden State and San Antonio recently before beating Charlotte 124-121 in overtime on Sunday night at home (CHA +11). At 36-23 (30-29 ATS), Los Angeles is only half a game back of the Jazz and one game up on the six-seed Grizzlies. Since 1996, home teams avenging a loss of 20 points or more—Los Angeles lost 140-116 at Houston on Dec. 30—are only 19-50 ATS when coming off a home loss of three points or fewer. In the same timeframe, games involving two teams with winning percentages between .600 and .750 and one team that went over the total by more than 24 points in its previous game (LAC) are 59-27 Over against totals of at least 200.
The Rockets’ astronomical rise up the standings from last year’s .500 record can largely be attributed to two decisions made by new head coach Mike D’Antoni. The first was to construct an offense built almost entirely around shooting three-pointers. Houston shoots 40.4 threes per game, nearly seven more than the second-place Cavaliers and nearly eight more than the team season record of 32.7, which the Rockets set two seasons ago. Despite that insane volume of attempts, they still rank in the top half of the league with a team 3PT% of 36.2%. D’Antoni’s second decision, which correlates closely with the first, was to move superstar James Harden (28.8 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 11.3 APG, 1.5 SPG) to point guard. With Harden at the helm, the Rockets’ offense is second in the league with an offensive efficiency rating of 111.8 points scored per 100 possessions. The change has also opened Harden up to posting an MVP-worthy statline: He’s third in the league in scoring and first in assists. Among shooting guards, he’s first in rebounding and third in steals. He’s surrounded by deadly shooters, including SG Lou Williams (18.9 PPG, 3.1 APG), who was added at the trade deadline. Williams was having a career-best season on the lowly Lakers, and early signs show that he’ll fit in well in Houston. In his first three games with the team, he’s averaging 24.0 points per game in 26.7 minutes per game on 14-of-28 three-point shooting. He joins SG Eric Gordon (17.1 PPG), PF Ryan Anderson (13.9 PPG, 4.9 RPG) and SF Trevor Ariza (11.7 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 1.9 SPG) as volume shooters on the perimeter. Even PG Patrick Beverley (9.4 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 4.5 APG, 1.6 SPG) throws up 4.3 threes per game. C Clint Capela (12.0 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 1.4 BPG), PF Montrezl Harrell (9.1 PPG, 3.7 RPG) and C Nene Hilario (8.3 PPG, 3.9 RPG) are the team’s more traditional interior players.
After missing 15 games with a thumb injury, PG Chris Paul (22.3 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 9.8 APG, 2.2 SPG) is back on the court and the Clippers lineup is at full health for the first time in a month. He has played 33 and 41 minutes in his first two games, respectively, and made up for a 4-of-18 shooting night against Charlotte with nine rebounds and 17 assists in the same game. He’s one of the best point guards in the game on either end of the floor, and his return means the Clippers no longer need to lean so heavily on backups Austin Rivers (12.4 PPG, 2.9 APG) and Raymond Felton (7.6 PPG, 2.9 RPG). Felton hasn’t played more than 14 minutes in either of the two games since Paul came back. The ripple effect continues throughout the lineup: SG Jamal Crawford (12.2 PPG) won’t have to create as many shots for himself, and will therefore force fewer of them. SG J.J. Redick (15.0 PPG) is at his best when paired with Paul, and he should start getting plenty of catch-and-shoot looks coming off of screens. He had 22 points on 9-of-16 shooting against Charlotte. C DeAndre Jordan (12.3 PPG, 13.7 RPG, 1.7 BPG) and his limited offensive repertoire perhaps benefit most from Paul’s presence, and he had a monstrous 20-point, 19-rebound night against Charlotte wherein he made nine of 10 shots. Of course, PF Blake Griffin (22.3 PPG, 8.7 RPG, 5.1 APG, 1.1 SPG) will hold onto his substantial role in the offense. He had 29 against San Antonio and a season-high 43 points against the Hornets to go along with 10 rebounds and five assists. He averaged 26.3 PPG on 18.4 shots per game in February, and he’s averaging 21.5 shots per game in the last two games with Paul. SF Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (5.9 PPG, 1.1 SPG) will play anywhere from 15 to 35 minutes in a game as a starter at the 3 spot, while C Marreese Speights (9.7 PPG, 4.6 RPG) likes to stretch the floor off the bench.
Wednesday’s NBA Game of the Day: Cavaliers at Celtics
By Covers.com
Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics (+1, 223.5)
The Boston Celtics worked their way up to second place in the East but have yet to prove they can beat the best team in the conference. The Celtics will get another crack at that when they host the Cleveland Cavaliers on Wednesday.
Boston is four games behind the Cavaliers in the standings and might be accused of looking ahead on the schedule after a sub-par performance in a 114-98 home loss to the Atlanta Hawks on Monday - its third loss in the last four games. The road ahead only gets more difficult for the Celtics, who head out for a five-game West Coast trip after finishing up with Cleveland that includes stops at Golden State and the Los Angeles Clippers. The Cavaliers fell at home to Chicago on Saturday with LeBron James sitting out but looked like a dominant team again with their superstar back in the lineup against Milwaukee on Monday. "It’s been a great month for our team," James told reporters after finishing up a 9-2 February with Monday's 102-95 triumph. "We just played good basketball. We got back to Cavalier basketball and to our DNA, so it definitely helped a lot."
LINE HISTORY: The Cavaliers opened as one-point road favorites. The total hit the board at 221.5 and jumped slightly 223.5 on Wednesday morning. Check out the complete line history here.
INJURY REPORT:
Cavaliers - SG J. Smith (Late March, PF K. Love (Late March, knee).
Celtics - SF G. Green (Out Wed, heel), PG D. Jackson (Out Indefinitely, illness).
POWER RANKINGS: Cavaliers (-7.5) - Celtics (-6.4) + home court (-3) = Celtics -1.9
ABOUT THE CAVALIERS (41-17 SU, 27-29-2 ATS, 33-24-1 O/U): James challenged his front office to add players when the team was struggling in January and they will bring in a former star in point guard Deron Williams, who signed on Monday after being waived by the Dallas Mavericks. "Automatic leadership," James told reporters of what Williams will bring to the team. "He's ran a franchise – multiple franchises – before, so you know he knows how to run a ball club. He’s played in big games before, so you know he won’t shy away from the moment." Williams averaged 13.1 points and 6.9 assists in 40 games for the Mavericks and is expected to back up All-Star Kyrie Irving.
ABOUT THE CELTICS (38-22 SU, 30-28-2 ATS, 31-27-2 O/U): Boston star Isaiah Thomas struggled to 19 points on 4-of-21 shooting on Monday, ending his franchise-record streak of 20-point games at 43. "That's how it is when you want to be great," Thomas told reporters. "No, I'm not worried about it. One of those games. Like I said, what was it 40-something games (of 20 points or more)? I'll break it. I'm not worried about the record." Thomas also matched a season high with seven turnovers in Monday's setback as the Celtics surrendered 25 points on 18 miscues.
TRENDS:
* Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
* Celtics are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games.
* Over is 8-2-1 in Cavaliers last 11 overall.
* Under is 3-0-1 in Celtics last 4 overall.
* Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Boston.
CONSENSUS: 61 percent are siding with the road underdog Cavaliers and Under is picking up 52 percent of the totals wagers.