NBA Knowledge
Oklahoma City-Golden State
Warriors led by 14 at half, were held to 41 points in second half; Thompson didn't score in 4th quarter. Golden State won six of last eight games with Oklahoma City; over is 6-5 in last 11 series games. Thunder lost five of last six visits to Oakland, as Warriors covered four of last five. Thunder won five of last six road games overall. Golden State won six of its last seven home games (5-2 vs spread). OC won Game 1 even though Westbrook/Durant combined to go 17-51 from floor.
Playoff tally: Favorites vs spread: 26-18, Over: 13-31
Second round: Favorites: 13-8, over: 12-9
Conference final: Favorites: 1-1, over: 1-1
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NBA: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Oklahoma City at Golden State
Golden State Warriors suffering their first home loss of the postseason were stuned 105-102 as -7.5 point home chalk in the opener of their best-of-seven Western Conference Finals vs Oklahoma Thunder. According to current odds at Sports Interaction, Warriors are -8.5 point favorites for game-two scheduled for Wednesday night in Oakland.
Laying 8.5 points can be risky. However, in this case the numbers add up well enough to conclude Warriors are the right choice. Warriors have shown 'what their made of' after a loss. Following nine regular season defeats the Warriors posted a sparkling 9-0 (6-3 ATS) mark the next game. In two postseason losses this season the Warriors are 2-0 SU/ATS moving their playoff stretch to 12-3 ATS following a loss.
Matching that, Warriors have a perfect 5-0 ATS streak these playoffs laying -8.5 to -9.5 points. One final nugget favoring Golden State, despite the setback in game-one, Warriors remain a profitable 4-1 against the betting line running the hardwood with Thunder in Oakland.
Game 2 - Thunder at Warriors
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
The Warriors entered the Western Conference Finals against the Thunder by losing only twice at Oracle Arena in 47 tries, while capturing all three regular season meetings with Oklahoma City. The Thunder struck down those trends in the series opener by erasing a 13-point halftime deficit to stun the Warriors, 108-102 to steal Game 1 as 7½-point underdogs.
Oklahoma City guard Russell Westbrook struggled in the opening half by scoring only three points, but turned things around in the second half by posting 24 points. Kevin Durant overcame a 10-of-30 night from the floor by drilling a jumper in the final minute to give the Thunder a 105-100 advantage. Durant finished with 26 points and 10 rebounds, as OKC outrebounded Golden State, 52-44. The Thunder overcame some rough shooting at the free throw line early (2-of-7) to finish 22-of-32 from the charity stripe, including 5-of-6 in the final minute.
The Warriors jumped out to a 60-47 halftime advantage, highlighted by a buzzer-beating three-pointer from league MVP Stephen Curry. Golden State’s lead hit 12 points with 3:30 remaining in the third quarter, but OKC finished the period on a 16-7 run to pull within three points. The Warriors were limited to just 14 points in the final 12 minutes, while Curry shot 1-of-4 for three points in the fourth quarter. Curry finished with a team-high 26 points, while Klay Thompson put up 25 points, but the "Splash Brothers" along with Draymond Green combined to shoot 29-of-67 from the floor (43%).
The Oklahoma City bench outscored Golden State’s reserves, 21-16, as Dion Waiters stepped up with 10 points on 4-of-6 shooting for the Thunder. Not one of the Warriors reserves scored more than six points, while Curry, Thompson, and Green each played 40 minutes. Durant sat out only two minutes in the game, as three of four OKC starters played at least 36 minutes (Westbrook - 40).
The Thunder improved to 5-1 SU/ATS on the road in the postseason, which includes three victories at San Antonio and Golden State since May 2. Oklahoma City has won three times as an underdog of at least seven points, while Billy Donovan’s club owns a solid 8-4 ATS record in the playoffs. The Thunder have compiled a 6-2 ATS mark in its last eight opportunities as an underdog since losing by 15 points at Golden State on March 3.
Steve Kerr’s squad has yet to lose consecutive games this season, coming off their 12th defeat of the season. VegasInsider.com NBA expert Chris David delves into this profitable trend, “Since Golden State hasn’t dropped back-to-back contests all season, the quick handicap for Game 2 would have you leaning to the Warriors and it’s hard to argue against the trends for them off a loss. The Warriors have gone 7-3-1 against the number in the victories and they beat some quality opponents including the Cavaliers, Clippers, Spurs and both the Rockets and Trail Blazers twice a piece.”
Golden State has covered only twice in the last seven Game 2’s of a playoff series since 2014, while needing to erase a 17-point deficit in its previous chance in the conference semifinals against Portland as nine-point favorites, 110-99. Since starting the 2015 championship run with a 2-4 ATS record at Oracle Arena, the Warriors have cashed in eight of their last 11 home playoff contests in spite of the Game 1 defeat.
From a totals perspective, David believes a higher-scoring game is in order for Wednesday, “The total for Game 2 was sent out at 221½ and I believe the oddsmakers adjusted too quickly after watching Game go ‘under’ (225) the number. The game started slow with a 48-point first quarter but picked up soon after and died late as the Warriors couldn’t buy a shot in the final 12 minutes. I still can’t ignore the fact that despite not being on target (44%) from the field, Golden State had 60 points at halftime and 88 after three quarters.”
It was mentioned earlier about Golden State’s ability to bounce back off a loss, but David notes that the Warriors put up plenty of points in this situation, “The number that stands out for me is what Golden State does offensively off a loss. The club is averaging 121.2 points per game after a loss and that includes 121 and 132-point efforts in this year’s postseason. The ‘over’ has gone 7-4 in those games and while I would lean to the high side in Game 2, I believe the smarter investment is taking the Golden State team total ‘over’ (115).”
Oklahoma City became only the third team this postseason to win a series opener on the road. Indiana and Miami each won at Toronto through the first two rounds of the playoffs in Game 1, but the Raptors came back to capture Game 2. However, Toronto only managed to cover in the opening round Game 2 contest against Indiana, while not cashing in an overtime victory over Miami to begin the conference semifinals. Since 2014, home teams that dropped Game 1 in a playoff series won five of seven times in Game 2, but covered only three times.
From a series price standpoint, Golden State is still the favorite to advance to the Western Conference Finals at -175 (Bet $175 to win $100) at Sportsbook.ag. David provides his view on how to bet the series from here, “While I selected Oklahoma City to win this series in seven games on VegasInsider.com, my prediction was based more on value and catching the Thunder at odds as high as 7/2. Sticking with value, I’d come back with Golden State as a minus-175 choice to win the series. Oklahoma City has dropped home games in each of its first two playoff series and if Golden State wins on Wednesday, you’ll see the series price rocket back up closer to the opening numbers of 1/4 odds.”
Golden State is currently listed as an 8½-point favorite at most sports books, while the total is hovering between 221½ and 222. The game tips off at 9:05 PM EST from Oakland and can be seen on TNT.
Wednesday's NBA Conference Finals Betting Preview
By Covers.com
Oklahoma City Thunder at Golden State Warriors (-8.5, 221.5)
The Oklahoma City Thunder looked overmatched for all of 24 minutes in Game 1 of the Western Conference finals before proving emphatically that they not only belong with the Golden State Warriors, but have a chance to beat the defending champs. The Thunder will try to take a 2-0 lead in the series when they visit the Warriors for Game 2 on Wednesday.
Oklahoma City faced a 13-point halftime deficit after committing 10 turnovers and struggling to defend Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson in the first half. The Thunder cut that number to two turnovers after the break and refused to bend to Golden State’s lineup changes, leaving centers Steven Adams and Enes Kanter in the game despite the Warriors going small. “In the second half, we did a much, much better job,” Oklahoma City coach Billy Donovan told reporters. “We took better care of the basketball, which enabled us to get back in transition, and I think probably play better defense.” The Warriors went 6-of-23 from the floor in the fourth quarter, including 1-of-10 from 3-point range, and got a combined three points from Curry and Thompson in the decisive period.
LINE HISTORY: The point spread for this Western Conference Final Game 2 opened Monday night with the Warriors pegged as 8.5-point favorites. The total opened at 221.5. At the time of publishing this preview on Tuesday night neither the spread or the total have moved. Check out the complete line history here.
ABOUT THE THUNDER (64-30, 45-48-1 ATS, 45-49 O/U): Oklahoma City proved it had no trouble playing in hostile environments when it took two games at San Antonio in the conference semifinals and now has a chance to take the first two games of the conference finals on the road against a team that dropped only two home games during the regular season. Westbrook exploded for 19 points in the third quarter to pull the Thunder within 88-85 and Durant broke out of a shooting slump with a jumper off the dribble from the top of the key with 30.7 seconds left that put the game away. "We're a resilient group," Durant said. "We just keep fighting till the end. "We're sticking to who we are as a team."
ABOUT THE WARRIORS (81-12, 52-39-2 ATS, 50-42-1 O/U): Golden State lamented its lack of patience on the offensive end in the fourth quarter and hoisted up too many quick shots instead of running the offense. “Our preparation won’t change,” Warriors forward Draymond Green told reporters. “I’m sure we’ll have a light practice (Tuesday) like we always do, we’ll watch some film, we’ll get ready to go for Wednesday. It’s not like some things happened that we know couldn’t happen. I think our defensive game plan was pretty good – really good. Offensively we sucked, so we know that’s something that we know what was the cause of it and that we can improve on, but our preparation won’t change.” Golden State has yet to lose consecutive games this season.
TRENDS:
* Thunder are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
* Warriors are 7-2 ATS in their last 8 home games.
* Under is 5-1 in Thunder last 5 Conference Finals games.
* Under is 6-1 in Warriors last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Golden State.
CONSENSUS: Following their successful trip to Oracle Arena in Game 1, the Thunder are getting 56 percent of the public love. As for the total, the Covers wagering public continues to pound the Over - in this case at a rate of 61 percent.
Thunder look for 2-0 lead
By Sportsbook.ag
OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (64-30) at GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (81-12)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Golden State -8.5, Total: 223
The Warriors will be looking to prevent a 2-0 series deficit when they host the Thunder in Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals on Wednesday.
The Thunder faced a 14-point deficit in Game 1 of this series, but they fought back and ended up winning 108-102 as eight-point road underdogs. Oklahoma City played a very good game on both ends of the floor and one thing that sticks out is that the Thunder turned the ball over just 11 times. They’ll have a chance to win every game in this series as long as they can avoid coughing the ball up.
The Warriors are not going to be happy with their Game 1 performance. There were a few points in the game where it seemed as if they were going to blow it open, but they turned the ball over 14 times and shot just 44.0% from the floor.
It was the first time the Warriors shot less than 45% from the field since Game 3 against the Rockets in the opening round. Even after the Game 1 loss, Golden State is still 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS when hosting Oklahoma City over the past three seasons.
One trend to keep an eye on when looking at this game is the fact that the Warriors are 30-13 ATS revenging a straight up loss as a favorite versus an opponent over the past three seasons.
The Thunder shocked the world by defeating the Warriors in Game 1 on Monday. PG Russell Westbrook (25.7 PPG, 10.9 APG, 6.8 RPG, 2.3 SPG in playoffs) really played a good game on both ends of the floor in the victory. He finished the contest with 27 points and 12 assists, but he also had seven steals on the defensive end.
He has been relentless when attacking the rim, but he’s also 7-for-17 from the outside over the past three games. When Westbrook is shooting the ball well, the rest of his game is really able to come easier for him. He will need to continue to play good defense on Steph Curry moving forward.
SF Kevin Durant (27.3 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 3.6 APG in playoffs) struggled a bit with his shot, going just 10-for-30 from the floor in the game. He did have 26 points and 10 rebounds and also hit a clutch jumper late in the fourth quarter that sealed the game for the Thunder. He’ll need to continue to be aggressive in the remainder of this series, as he’s a huge mismatch for all the guys that the Warriors are throwing at him on the defensive end.
The Warriors are going to play Game 2 with a ton of desperation, as they know that this series might be over if they lose on their home floor on Wednesday. One guy that is going to need to come out and play well is PG Stephen Curry (25.0 PPG, 6.6 APG, 6.2 RPG, 1.6 SPG in playoffs).
Curry had 26 points, 10 boards and seven assists in Game 1, but he was just 9-for-22 from the floor and turned the ball over a miserable seven times. Golden State needs the MVP to be more efficient in the remainder of this series or the team’s magical season could be coming to an end sooner than planned.
PF Draymond Green (18.2 PPG, 9.9 RPG, 6.7 APG, 2.3 BPG, 1.5 SPG in playoffs) is also going to need to be better for the Warriors. He had just five rebounds and four assists in Game 1 and that is not going to be good enough for Golden State moving forward. Green is one of the team’s best rebounders and passers and he must display that the rest of this series.
SG Klay Thompson (27.0 PPG, 1.1 SPG in playoffs) played a very good game for the Warriors in Game 1, though. He had 25 points, nine boards and four assists on 11-for-25 shooting from the floor. If he can continue to knock down shots and play good defense then the Warriors should find their way back into this series.