NBA Betting News and Notes Wednesday, May 22

Pacers at Heat: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat (-7.5, 182.5)

The last time the Miami Heat had a long layoff between series, they came out rusty and dropped Game 1 of the Eastern Conference semifinals. The Indiana Pacers, who visit the Heat for Game 1 of the conference finals Wednesday, are hoping that same rust allows them to get a quick leg up on the defending champs. The Pacers battled Miami for six games in the semifinals last spring before falling short and are determined for a different outcome this time.

Indiana held a 2-1 lead in the series last spring before LeBron James asserted himself with 40 points, 18 rebounds and nine assists in Game 4 as the Heat cruised through the final three games. James is already in attack mode for the series this season, taking offense at a rather benign comment by Pacers coach Frank Vogel and turning it into a two-day news story. “We’re not just another team,” James said. “I don’t understand what he’s saying. But we’re not just another team. That’s not true. He said we’re just another team in their way. We’re a great team.” Of course, Vogel never said the Heat were “just another team,” and simply referred to them as the team that happened to be next on the schedule.

ABOUT THE PACERS: Indiana’s great advantage over Miami is on the interior, where Roy Hibbert, David West and Paul George form a frontline bigger than anything the Heat have seen. The Pacers led the NBA in rebounding average during the regular season while Miami finished last. George did a fine job of locking up Carmelo Anthony and forcing him to take bad or contested shot in the semifinals, and will be tasked with doing the same thing to James in the finals. George’s maturation is a big reason the Pacers feel they are better prepared to face the Heat this spring. The All-Star forward averaged 9.7 points and 6.6 rebounds in the 2012 postseason but has lifted those numbers to 19.1 and 8.3, respectively, this postseason while assuming more of the ball handling responsibilities and guarding the oppositions best player. “It’ll be fun,” George told the Indianapolis Star about the chance to guard James. “I always embrace challenges.”

ABOUT THE HEAT: Miami did not have Chris Bosh for much of the series against the Pacers last spring due to an abdominal injury. Bosh is now a key to what the Heat like to do offensively and will operate as the center in an offense that spreads the floor. Miami is counting on Bosh’s ability to hit jumpers from 15 feet and further out to pull Hibbert away from the basket and open up driving lanes for James and Dwyane Wade. The Heat lost to the Pacers twice during the regular season, and James was held to a season-low 13 points in the lone win against Indiana, a 105-91 triumph that marked win No.18 during their 27-game streak. Miami has won 45 of its last 48 games overall. “It only gets more difficult and more challenging,” Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said after closing out the semifinal win over the Chicago Bulls. “That’s what competitors want.”

TRENDS:

* Pacers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
* Heat are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 vs. Eastern Conference.
* Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
* Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. Indiana has only one player with experience in the conference finals in backup C Ian Mahimni. James will be making his fifth trip to the conference finals in the last seven years while Wade and Udonis Haslem have helped lead the Heat to five of the last nine including 2013.

2. Wade (knee) has been practicing and does not expect to miss any time.

3. West (right calf) has been limited in practice but is expected to go in Game 1

2013 NBA Playoffs

Miami is 9-1 in playoffs, with only loss in Game 1 to Bulls, would look for Heat to be anxious to get off to good start vs defensively-stout Pacer squad that beat New York in six games. Heat is 2-3 as home favorite in playoffs; over is 2-2-1 in their home games. Indiana beat Miami twice in three meetings this season, with home team winning all three. Heat won last meeting 105-91 (-6.5), only one played here- wouldn't put whole lot of stock in that, but its my job to tell you. Pacers are 2-4 on road during playoffs, with all four losses by 10+ points (2-4 as road underdogs).

Armadillosports.com

Heat-Pacers Outlook
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

No. 1 Miami Heat vs. No. 3 Indiana Pacers

Series Price: Miami -700, Indiana +500

Series Format: Miami, 2-2-1-1-1

Game 1 - Wednesday, May 22 (8:30 PM EST, TNT)
Game 2 - Friday, May 24 (8:30 PM EST, TNT)
Game 3 - Sunday, May 26 (8:30 PM EST, TNT)
Game 4 - Tuesday, May 28 (8:30 PM EST, TNT)
Game 5* - Thursday, May 30 (8:30 PM EST, TNT)
Game 6* - Saturday, June 1 (8:30 PM EST, TNT)
Game 7* - Monday, June 3 (8:30 PM EST, TNT)

Skinny: The Heat cruised through the first two series against an underachieving Bucks' squad and undermanned Bulls' roster to reach the Eastern Conference Finals for the third straight season. Miami beat Milwaukee by double-digits in each of the four games of a first round sweep, while posting a 3-1 ATS record. Following an opening game upset by Chicago in the conference semifinals, the Heat rebounded with four straight victories.

The Pacers went back and forth in the opening round against the Hawks, splitting the first four contests with the home team winning each time. Indiana routed Atlanta in both Games 5 and 6 to return to the second round for the second consecutive postseason, but this time the Pacers took care of business. Frank Vogel's club knocked out the Knicks in six games, including three home triumphs by an average of 9.6 points per game.

Four members of the Heat averaged double-digits through the first two rounds, led by LeBron James with 24 ppg. Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, and Ray Allen are averaging between 12 and 13 ppg, while Norris Cole has impressed off the bench by knocking down 68% of his three-point attempts. In last season's second round meeting, the Heat won the final three contests against Indiana after falling behind, 2-1. Bosh missed the last five games with an abdominal injury, while Wade put up one of his best performances in the series clincher by scoring 41 points.

Indiana has played a majority of this season without last year's leading scorer Danny Granger, as Paul George stepped into the star role. George is averaging 19 ppg and eight rebounds a game in the postseason, while George Hill, David West, and Roy Hibbert are each putting up double-figures on the scoring sheet. The Pacers and the Grizzlies are the two teams left that haven't lost at home in the postseason, as Indiana has won all six contests at Bankers Life Fieldhouse by at least nine points.

Head-to-Head Matchups: The home club captured all three meetings this season, including two victories by the Pacers in Indianapolis. The two teams didn't hook up until early January when the Pacers cruised past the Heat as two-point underdogs, 87-77. The game was tied at halftime, but Indiana used a 25-15 third quarter spurt, while opening up a lead as high as 17 points in the second half. Past 66 points combined from James, Wade, and Bosh, the rest of the Heat squad put up just 11 points.

The Heat's final loss prior to their 27-game winning streak came at Indiana on February 1, a 102-89 defeat as two-point road favorites. The Pacers shot a blistering 55% from the field, led by West's 30 points on 12-of-15 shooting. Lance Stephenson scored 15 points against the Heat, nine months after making zero impact in the playoff defeat to Miami, which included a choking gesture towards James in a Game 3 blowout of the Heat last May.

Miami picked up a modicum of revenge in the midst of its long hot streak by blowing out Indiana in South Florida, 105-91 on March 10 as 6 ½-point favorites. Mario Chalmers paced the Heat with a terrific showing from downtown, hitting 5-of-6 attempts from three-point range, while scoring a game-high 26 points. Miami's offense finally figured out Indiana's stingy defense by hitting 55% of its shots, while Bosh missed just four of 15 field goal attempts en route to a 24-point effort.

Betting Notes: VegasInsider.com's Chris David breaks down the key numbers in this series, "When Indiana wins, its covers. The Pacers have gone 8-4 both straight up and against the spread in the playoffs and that includes a perfect 6-0 mark at home. Plus five of those six wins came by double digits. Meanwhile, the Heat has covered seven of their eight victories and they won all seven of those games by double digits. Miami has been favored in all nine of its playoffs games and the team should be giving up points in every battle during this series and most likely the NBA Finals as well."

David believes the best look in the series is when the Pacers play at the friendly confines, "You have to look at Indiana as underdogs, in particular as a home 'dog. That situation happened four times this season, twice against Miami and ironically the other two instances came against the two other teams still fighting, Memphis and San Antonio. The Pacers went 3-1 in those games, the lone loss to the Spurs."

From the totals perspective, David analyzes the fluctuation of the numbers between these teams, "Game 1's 'over/under' is hovering between 182 and 183 points. In last year's postseason, the number was as low as 179 and as high 186. The 'under' cashed in the first three games before the 'over' closed out the series on a 3-0 run. During this year's regular season meetings, the numbers were between 184½ and 188 points. The 'over' went 2-1 in those affairs and the lone 'under' occurred when Miami scored 77 points."

Series Outlook: The Pacers have won three series the last postseasons, which included two overwhelming victories over the Magic and Hawks. Indiana pulled the slight upset over New York, but won just once on the road in the last series. The Heat owns an impressive 9-1 series record since James, Wade, and Bosh have played together, while knocking out this Pacers' squad last season. Miami will advance to the NBA Finals in five games.