NBA Knowledge
Toronto-Cleveland
Home team has dominated series, winning all four games by average of 18 points. Over is 6-3-1 in last ten series games. Raptors lost last four games in Cleveland (0-3 vs spread in last three)- hosts won last seven series games. Four of last six Toronto games went over the total. Lowry/DeRozan went a combined 28-43 in Game 4, scoring 67 points; can they produce close to that in Cleveland? Cavaliers won/covered last four home games; this is a best-of-3 series now.
Playoff tally: Favorites vs spread: 26-18, Over: 13-31
Second round: Favorites: 13-8, over: 12-9
Conference final: Favorites: 3-5, over: 3-4-1
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NBA: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Toronto at Cleveland
In the sports world, people tend to be a little too quick in declaring a playoff series dead in the water. A team that wins the opening 2 games of a series are almost immediately declared a mortal lock, which causes their NBA betting odds to drop dramatically. If history has shown us anything, though, it’s that teams who look dead and buried often find a way to rise up again and make things interesting.
After the first 2 games of the NBA Eastern Conference Finals, the Cleveland Cavaliers certainly looked too good for the Toronto Raptors, but over the course of a couple of days in Canada, that perception shifted dramatically. There was always the belief that Toronto might win a consolation game on home court, but few people saw them taking both games to tie the series at 2-2. That is exactly what they did, though, and they can now apply some real pressure to the Cavs when they head back to Cleveland for Game 5 on Wednesday night. You can keep up to date with all the latest odds at MyBookie.ag
Why bet on the Toronto Raptors
The Raptors were always only ever going to go as far as Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan would carry them, which meant it looked like the end of the road in this series. Both men were shut down in the opening two games of the series, with Lowry leaving the bench to decompress in the 2nd quarter of Game 2. A lot of finger pointing ensued, but both men rose to the occasion back on home court, with DeRozan scoring 32 in Game 3, and Lowry scoring 35 in Game 4. The big question now is whether or not they can take that show on the road to beat a Cavaliers team that is perfect at home in the postseason.
Why bet on the Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavaliers have been left with a couple of questions to answer after failing to show up in Toronto. Is Kevin Love going to be healthy enough to be effective after picking up an injury in Game 4, and is Tyronn Lue really the coach that can lead the Cavs to the Promised Land? Love says that he will be ready for Game 5, but there are an awful lot of people who suddenly doubt that Lue is the man for the job. That seems a little unfair after the Cavaliers took their first postseason loss after winning 10-straight, but the doubts are there just the same, Cleveland have been a formidable bunch at home in these playoffs, and with 2 of the final 3 games of this series on home court, they still have to be the favorites to move on.
Pick and Final Score Prediction
The first 2 games played in Cleveland in this series were one-sided affairs, but I don’t think we are going to see a blowout in this one. The live odds are sure to have the Cavs as the favorite, and while I think they will win, I also think it’ll be a tough battle.
Toronto Raptors 98 Cleveland Cavaliers 101
East Finals Game 5 Essentials
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com
Toronto at Cleveland (-10.5/199)
This will be the first Game 5 of Cleveland’s 2016 postseason.
They’re 0-1 coming off a loss, so the Cavs haven’t necessarily dealt with the adversity they have faced well, but they’re expecting a return home will help them stabilize themselves as they look to move one win from a return to the NBA Finals.
Despite the 2-2 tie, Sportsbook.ag has set the series prices at -1150 for favored Cleveland while enticing Toronto backers with a return of +700. The Cavs are favored by 10.5 in Game 5, while the total has been set at 199.
For Toronto, this will be the third Game 5 of its playoff run, but will also be a new experience since the first two came at Air Canada Centre. Their group won’t have much to reference from personal experience going forward since the organization is making their first appearance in a conference finals and only head coach Dwane Casey and backup point guard Cory Joseph have championship experience, but that hasn’t been a detriment over the past week.
The Raptors are figuring things out as they go, and have proven to be quite resilient in guaranteeing themselves at least a Game 6 in an East finals series where they fell by 50 combined points in the first two contests. Toronto is just 2-6 on the road thus far in the playoffs and was 24-17 in the regular season. The Raptors lost their only regular-season game at Quicken Loans Arena 122-100, so they’ve been outscored by an average of 24 points in three losses in Cleveland.
Of course, none of that really matters at this point. The Raptors find themselves in a situation no one expected they would be in, an upset away from a series lead over heavily favored Cleveland and just two away from a spot in the Finals as Eastern Conference champs. Although they’ve done nothing on the road, the All-Star backcourt of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan did figure things out at the Air Canada Centre against this group. Lowry scored 35 points on 14-for-20 shooting in Game 4 and averaged 27.5 points per game after scoring a total of 18 points on 8-for-28 shooting in his two outings in Cleveland, shooting 1-for-15 3-point range. If he’s his usual fearless self, Toronto will have a puncher’s chance. If he doubts himself, or needs to decompress, odds are good that the Raptors won’t have a chance.
DeRozan has actually been good in every game in the series. He averaged 20 points per game in Cleveland over the first two games, shooting nearly 50 percent from the field, then stepped his game up in Canada, shooting 26-for-47 (55 pct) while scoring 32 points in the Raptors wins. Despite limiting his game by staying primarily inside the 3-point line, he’s been able to get to the free-throw line while also setting himself up for easy looks.
Because he’s been such a catalyst and this game means so much, it wouldn’t be surprising to see LeBron James find himself defending DeRozan more than he has all series. Offensively, James hasn’t forced the issue at all, shooting 77.5 percent (38-for-49) while averaging 25 points, 8.5 rebounds and 6.5 assists in the series, but after playing a postseason-high 46 minutes in Game 4, he’s ready to do whatever it takes to make sure the Cavs are playing in the NBA Finals next week.
“I’m comfortable playing him whatever he feels good (playing), I’m comfortable with,” head coach Tyronn Lue said Tuesday. “We talked about it before the game and the night before about how his body felt and wanting to play more minutes because we knew it was a big game for us, but it didn’t work out.”
Lineup combinations will be a major point of emphasis in this Game 5, since Kevin Love sat during the fourth quarter for the second straight game and was available despite ankle and possibly tweaking his knee after stepping on an official’s foot. He’s shot 5-for-23 over the last two games, including 3-for-11 from 3-point range, so Lue has gone with Channing Frye in key situations, preferring his height and more accurate shooting touch as opposed to going small and playing Love.
Bismack Biyombo has been the x-factor for the Raptors and has altered the course of the series with his rim protection. Tristan Thompson, considered Cleveland’s primary threat at the basket, has been outplayed by the 6-foot-10 center, who has come up with an average of 20 rebounds and 3.5 blocks over the last two games after grabbing just nine total boards over the course of the first two losses. His activity will be essential on the road.
Besides Love finding his range, the Cavs are hoping that being back home will guarantee Kyrie Irving being a positive factor in the series. He had 26 points and six assists in Game 4, but was just 3-for-19 in Saturday’s 99-84 loss, which came out of nowhere considering he’s averaged 26.5 points while shooting 59 percent from the field in leading the Cavs to a 2-0 lead.
As we anticipated coming in, James/DeRozan and Irving/Lowry is ultimately going to decide this series, but the first time, Toronto is going to take the court in Cleveland confident that they can hang with the Cavs. That could make all the difference.
Wednesday's NBA Conference Finals Betting Preview
By Covers.com
Toronto Raptors at Cleveland Cavaliers (-10.5, 199)
The Cleveland Cavaliers are suddenly locked in a fierce battle in the Eastern Conference finals after once being in position to roll over the Toronto Raptors. Two victories by Toronto changed the complexion of the now-tied series, and it is a best-of-three competition when the series returns to Cleveland for Wednesday's Game 5.
The Raptors lost the first two games in Cleveland by an average of 25 points but they ignored the opinions of people saying they would be swept to post two impressive victories. "We've been playing with our backs against the wall," Toronto shooting guard DeMar DeRozan said at a press conference after scoring 32 points in Monday's 105-99 victory. "We never cared what anybody else thought. It was a challenge for us every single day. We've been counted out and we like that challenge." Cavaliers coach Tyronn Lue didn't play ineffective power forward Kevin Love in the fourth quarter for the second consecutive contest but pinpointed his team's mistakes as the biggest factor in the Game 4 loss. "We came up short," Lue said in his postgame press conference. "We had a few defensive breakdowns that you can't have down the stretch of a game, especially in the playoffs, and they executed every time we made a mistake."
LINE HISTORY: The Cavaliers opened as 10-point home favorites against the Raptors for Game 5. The line was bumped up a half point early Tuesday morning to -10.5, which is where it sits at the time of publication of this preview. The total opened at 198 and was bumped up to 199 at the same time as the spread was moved. Check out the complete line history here.
ABOUT THE RAPTORS (66-34, 52-48 ATS, 49-50-1 O/U): Getting a combined 67 points on 28-of-43 shooting from point guard Kyle Lowry (35) and DeRozan was huge for Toronto as the two All-Stars have both experienced some struggles in the postseason. "One thing about us, we can take the bad with the good any day," DeRozan said. "It's life, man. You can't get too down when things are not going your way, but you understand the work that you put in all summer, all throughout the season, for moments like this. You've got to be ready." The Raptors expect center Jonas Valanciunas (ankle) to be ready for the first time in the series to team up with defensive dynamo Bismack Biyombo, who has averaged 20 rebounds and 3.5 blocked shots over the past two games.
ABOUT THE CAVALIERS (67-27, 44-47-3 ATS, 47-47 O/U): Love, who tweaked his knee in the second half, averaged just 6.5 points on 5-of-23 shooting in the two games in Toronto and has no explanation for his poor play. "I had a lot of great shots, I just didn't knock them down," Love told reporters. "It's as simple as that. I had a lot of confidence in shooting the ball, a lot of really wide open 3's, especially to start that first quarter. A number of them went in and out so I just need to continue to stay aggressive." Point guard Kyrie Irving bounced back with 26 points and suffering through a 3-of-19 shooting performance in Game 3 when he scored a series-low 13 points.
TRENDS:
* Raptors are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games.
* Cavaliers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games.
* Under is 6-1 in Raptors last 7 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
* Over is 8-2 in Cavaliers last 10 Wednesday games.
* Home team is 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
CONSENSUS: Somewhat shockingly, at the time of publication of this preview, the Raptors are picking up 59 percent of the Consensus action. As usual in the NBA Playoffs, Over is grabbing the majority of the total wagers at 61 percent.
Cavaliers seek 3-2 lead
By Sportsbook.ag
TORONTO RAPTORS (66-34) at CLEVELAND CAVALIERS (67-27)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Cleveland -11.0, Total: 198.5
The Raptors will be looking to take their first lead in the series when they face the Cavaliers in Game 5 on Wednesday.
Toronto looked buried after two miserable performances in Cleveland, but the team has now swung the momentum of this series with two straight home victories. The Raptors most recently defeated the Cavaliers 105-99 as six-point home underdogs to even up the series at 2-2. They shot 53.8% from the field in that game and turned the ball over just eight times as well. If they can continue to play efficiently then they will stay competitive for the remainder of this series.
The Cavaliers will, however, be hoping to get back on track at home on Wednesday. They have not lost a postseason game at Quicken Loans Arena and they’ll be looking to leave that unchanged in this one.
One thing that favors the Raptors in this game is the fact that Cleveland is just 8-20 ATS after two straight games where its opponent was called for 18 or less fouls over the past three seasons. The Cavaliers are, however, 14-3 ATS after allowing 55 points or more in the first half of two straight games over the past two seasons. Both teams are expected to be at full strength in this game, so injuries shouldn’t play a major role in determining the outcome of this one.
The Raptors have evened up this series after looking like a beaten team when they left Cleveland after Games 1 and 2. The big swing for Toronto has been that the team’s All-Star backcourt has finally started to play to its potential.
PG Kyle Lowry (18.6 PPG, 6.1 APG, 1.7 SPG in playoffs) was the one that was really dominant in Game 4, finishing the contest with 35 points, five rebounds, five assists and three steals. He was 14-for-20 from the floor and 4-for-7 from three in the game as well. Lowry must continue to attack the rim against Irving, as he has plenty of strength and knows how to use it to finish around the rim.
SG DeMar DeRozan (21.3 PPG, 1.1 SPG in playoffs) also came up huge for the Raptors in Game 4. He had 32 points on 14-for-23 shooting from the field, but it was the way he did it that really stood out. DeRozan scored whenever Toronto needed a clutch bucket and he’ll need to bring his confidence into Cleveland.
One big story for this game is that C Jonas Valanciunas (15.0 PPG, 12.1 RPG, 1.4 BPG in playoffs) is set to return for Toronto. He is one of the better post scorers in the game and should be able to make a mark in this series.
The Cavaliers are coming off of two lousy performances and SF LeBron James (24.0 PPG, 8.7 RPG, 7.0 APG, 2.3 SPG in playoffs) is going to need to start being more aggressive for his team moving forward. James had 29 points on 11-for-16 shooting in Game 4, but he did not shoot the ball enough for the Cavs. He’s getting a ton of good looks around the rim, but needs to stop being so passive.
It’d also be big for Cleveland if PF Kevin Love (16.4 PPG, 10.0 RPG in playoffs) can find a way to make an impact in this series. He’s averaging just 6.5 PPG over the past two contests and is just 3-for-11 from the outside in those games. The Cavaliers are relying on Love to knock down his open looks and he has not been doing it recently.
PG Kyrie Irving (23.9 PPG, 1.3 SPG in playoffs) is also going to need to be better, but his struggles are on the defensive end. He can’t afford to let Kyle Lowry continue to drive to the bucket at will in this series. If he does then the Cavaliers may be looking at their first series deficit of the postseason.