NBA betting trends, odds and predictions for Wednesday, May 3rd, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
NBA Knowledge
All five Cleveland starters were at least +15 in Game 1 win- they led by 22 after third quarter. Cavaliers won six of last seven games with Toronto (over is 6-5 in last eleven series games). Raptors won/covered once in last six visits to Ohio. Toronto won/covered five of last seven road games overall. Under is 5-3 in Raptors’ last eight games. Cavaliers are 5-0 in playoffs (2-2-1 vs spread); they’re 3-2 in last five home games overall. Seven of their last nine games went over total. Cavaliers are 4-3 in this round with Lebron. This is only 3rd time Toronto has been in this round; they won two years ago, lost in 2001.
Houston was 22-50 on arc in easy Game 1 win: their eFG% was 58.6%, which is crazy good. Every Rocket starter was at least +18. San Antonio won eight of last 11 games with Houston (6-5 vs spread); Rockets lost four of last six visits to the Alamo (3-3 vs spread). Under is 4-1-1 in last six series games. Houston won three of its last five road games overall. Spurs won/covered three of last four home games. Over is 8-1 in their last nine games. Over last 20 years, this is only 3rd time Rockets have been in this round (1-1); they won two years ago, lost in 2009. Spurs won five of last seven series in this round. Popovich has won six series after losing Game 1, second only to Phil Jackson (8 ) in NBA history.
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NBA: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Toronto Raptors at Cleveland Cavs
Although Cleveland hadn't played since April 23rd, when they completed a sweep of Indiana the Cavaliers showed little signs of rust in throttling Toronto 116-105 on Monday night in the opener of their Eastern Conference semifinal.
With the victory on Quicken Loans Arena hardwood, the Cavaliers have won 16 of 17 second season games in front of the home audience vs conference opponents (10-7 ATS). With the loss, Raptors have lost 13 of 18 on enemy hardwood during post season with a money-burning 6-12 record against the betting line. And, that includes four consecutive SU/ATS losses in Cleveland by an average 24.8 points/game. Oddsmakers are not giving Raptors much of a chance opening Cavaliers -7.5 point favorites across most shops.
Wednesday's Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Eastern Conference Semifinals
No. 3 Toronto at No. 2 Cleveland
2016-17 Regular Season (Cavaliers 3-1)
Oct. 28 Cavaliers (-2.5) at Raptors 94-91 (Under 206)
Nov. 15 Raptors at Cavaliers (-5.5) 121-117 (Over 209)
Dec. 5 Cavaliers (+2) at Raptors 116-112 (Over 214.5)
Apr. 12 Raptors (-3) at Cavaliers 98-83 (Under 201)
2017 Posteason (Cavaliers 1-0)
May 1 Raptors at Cavaliers (-7) 116-105 (Over 211)
The Raptors have been no match for the Cavaliers at Quicken Loans Arena in the playoffs since last season’s Eastern Conference Finals. Cleveland picked up its four consecutive home playoff blowout of Toronto in Monday’s 116-105 victory in the conference semifinals opener as seven-point favorites.
Although winning by 11 points may not seem like a blowout, the Cavaliers built a 22-point advantage after three quarters before the Raptors outscored Cleveland, 31-20 over the final 12 minutes. LeBron James continued his domination of Toronto with a 35-point, 10 rebound effort, while Kyrie Irving pumped in 24 points and 10 assists for the Cavaliers. Five different Cavaliers knocked down at least two three-pointers, including a trio of treys from Kevin Love, who scored 18 points.
The only way the Raptors have a chance to beat the Cavaliers four times in this series is getting dynamic performances from the backcourt duo of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan. The pair combined for 39 points on 14-of-29 shooting, while Lowry dished out 11 assists. In DeRozan’s first three games against the Cavaliers this season (he sat out finale), the All-Star guard posted 32, 26, and 31 points – all in losses. DeRozan scored only 19 points in Game 1, while putting up 22 points or less in four playoff defeats to Cleveland last season.
The margin of victory by Cleveland over Toronto in the playoffs at home continues to be astounding dating back to last May with the wins coming by 21, 19, 38, and 11 points. In three of the four defeats, the Raptors have been limited to 89 points, while Toronto slipped to 3-8 SU and 4-7 ATS in the previous 11 matchups overall with Cleveland.
With the loss on Monday, the Raptors dropped to 0-7 SU/ATS in their last seven playoff series openers since 2014. However, Dwane Casey’s squad has managed to win Game 2 in four of six opportunities during this span, but one of the two defeats came at Cleveland in last season’s conference finals. Toronto has also been terrible in the underdog role since 2014 by compiling a 5-12 ATS mark when receiving points in the last 17 postseason games.
Cleveland has won six consecutive Game 2’s of a series after capturing the opener since 2015, while putting together a 4-2 ATS record in this span. Four of Cleveland’s first five playoff games have sailed OVER the total, including all three contests at Quicken Loans Arena. Tyronn Lue’s offense continues to shine at home in the postseason by scoring at least 108 points in nine of the past 10 at the “Q” since the 2016 semifinals.
The ‘over’ (211) easily cashed in Game 1 and VegasInsider.com NBA analyst Chris David believes you should press wagers to the high side going forward, especially in Cleveland.
He explained, “Even though the number on Game 2 has been pushed up to 213½ for Wednesday, I don’t see anybody slowing down the Cavaliers. They’ve been shooting lights out from the opening tip and are averaging 59.6 points in the first-half in this year’s postseason. The worst performance in the first two quarters thus far was 49 points and that came in Game 3 of the first round at Indiana but they bounced back with a 70-spot in the second-half of that game. The total for the first-half of Game 2 is listed at 108½ and Cleveland has eclipsed that number in each of its postseason matchups.”
“I would also suggest giving Cleveland’s team total ‘over’ (110½) a serious look in Game 2 based on its current form and playoff history versus Toronto. Including last year’s results in the conference finals, Cleveland has scored 115, 108, 116 and 116 points at home against the Raptors.”
After opening the series at -525 odds to advance to the conference finals, the Cavaliers have been pushed up to -800 (Bet $800 to win $100) at Sportsbook.ag to knock out the Raptors. Toronto moved from +400 on Sunday to +525, while the Cavaliers are still the overwhelming favorites to win the Eastern Conference title at 1/3 odds (Bet $300 to win $100).
Western Conference Semifinals
No. 3 Houston at No. 2 San Antonio
2016-17 Regular Season (Spurs 3-1)
Nov. 9 Rockets (+8.5) at Spurs 101-99 (Under 212)
Nov. 12 Spurs (-1.5) at Rockets 106-100 (Under 208)
Dec. 20 Spurs (+1) at Rockets 102-100 (Under 213.5)
Mar. 6 Rockets at Spurs (-3.5) 112-110 (Push 222)
2017 Postseason (Rockets 1-0)
May 1 Rockets (+6) at Spurs 126-99 (Over 215.5)
San Antonio’s 13-game winning streak in home Game 1’s of the playoffs came to a crashing halt on Monday in a 126-99 blowout to Houston. The Rockets jumped out to a commanding 69-39 halftime lead and never looked back as Houston connected on 22-of-50 (yes 50) three-point attempts. Trevor Ariza hit five treys, while Ryan Anderson knocked down four three-pointers as six Rockets scored in double-figures.
The Spurs didn’t play well from the opening tip-off as Gregg Popovich’s team shot just 37% from the floor and 9-of-29 from three-point range. San Antonio allowed a season-high 119 points in a loss at New Orleans in January, but the Spurs gave up at least 30 points in three quarters in Game 1, while the front-court trio of LaMarcus Aldridge, David Lee, and Pau Gasol combined for 14 points. Kawhi Leonard paced the Spurs with 21 points and 11 rebounds, as the MVP candidate averaged 31.6 points per game in the opening round series against Memphis.
Where do the Spurs go from here? San Antonio last lost consecutive home playoff games in the 2010 conference semifinals to Phoenix, while going 7-4 SU and 6-5 ATS off a postseason loss at the AT&T Center since 2011. Off a home loss in the regular season, San Antonio compiled a 6-3 SU and 5-4 ATS record, while Houston improved to 3-0 ATS in three trips to the Alamo this season.
David added his thoughts on the Spurs-Rockets total for Game 2 and what to expect on Wednesday.
“Game 1 jumped ‘over’ the closing total of 215½ and Houston certainly was the main contributor with 126 points,” said David. “It wasn’t surprising to see the Rockets explode but doing so against the Spurs is certainly surprising considering they were ranked second in scoring defense (98.3 PPG).”
“Knowing San Antonio is well coached makes you believe we’ll see a better defensive effort in Game 2 plus it’s hard to imagine Houston drilling another 22 bombs from 3-point land. I dug up the numbers and prior to Monday’s result, San Antonio only gave up 110 or more points in nine games this season. In the ensuing game, the Spurs held their opponents to 98.1 PPG and that bounce back effort helped the club go 7-2 (6-3 ATS). One example happened in the first round when Memphis beat San Antonio 110-108 in Game 4 at home and the Spurs responded with 116-103 victory in Game 5.
“The team total for Houston in Game 2 is listed at 105 and Houston has eclipsed that number in six of its seven playoff games while posting exactly 105 in the other. San Antonio held Memphis to 89 PPG at home in the first round, which could have you believing even more that Monday’s offensive effort by the Rockets was an anomaly.”
Houston moved to 4-10 in its last 14 road playoff contests with the Game 1 blowout, but the Rockets haven’t won consecutive away games in the postseason since 2005 against Dallas.
Sportsbook.ag lists the Rockets at -120 favorites to win the series after starting at +200. If you see value in San Antonio advancing to the Western Conference finals, now is the time to jump on the Spurs at +100 for the series.
Wednesday’s NBA Playoffs Betting Preview
Covers.com
Toronto Raptors at Cleveland Cavaliers (-7.5, 213.5)
ABOUT THE RAPTORS (55-34 SU, 48-40-1 ATS, 47-42 O/U): "We've just got to play defense and not let them go up and down and do what they do, play defense for 48 minutes," Raptors point guard Kyle Lowry told reporters after Game 1. "We got to find ways to limit their spurts." Toronto coach Dwane Casey bristled when it was suggested his team was dominated in Game 1 but the final margin of the contest didn't reflect Cleveland's supremacy. The Raptors trailed by 22 points after three quarters and cutting the deficit in half in a quarter in which the outcome was long decided left the impression on shooting guard DeMar DeRozan that the Game 2 effort needs to be substantially better. "We already got that foot in the hole and that's where we kick in and understand we fight well under adversity," DeRozan told reporters. "We have done it all year. That has been our mantra, so that's something we have to exploit next game."
ABOUT THE CAVALIERS (56-31 SU, 39-45-3 ATS, 51-35-1 O/U): The Cleveland Cavaliers have yet to stumble in the postseason and aim for their sixth consecutive victory when they host the Toronto Raptors in Wednesday's Game 2 of the Eastern Conference semifinals. The defending champion Cavaliers jumped on the third-seeded Raptors from the outset of the series opener and rolled to a 116-105 victory. James contributed 35 points and 10 rebounds in the opener and needs just 25 points to pass Hall of Famer Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (5,762 points) for second place on the all-time postseason scoring list. Point guard Kyrie Irving also stood out in the opener with 24 points and a career playoff-best 10 assists while setting the tone for the victory. "We wanted to come out, make a conscious effort to move the basketball as well as get out in transition, keep the pace up, make them play our game and go from there," Irving told reporters. "Coach (Tyronn Lue) was right. It could have gone either way, but I'm glad it went in the direction of us getting out in transition and getting some easy shots as well as moving the basketball."
LINE HISTORY: The Cavaliers opened as 7.5-point home favorites for Game 2. The total hit the betting board at 214 and was dropped slightly to 213.5 on Tuesday afternoon.
INJURY REPORT:
Raptors - No injuries to report.
Cavaliers - SG J. Smith (Probable, thumb), PG K. Felder (Out Indefinitely, leg).
TRENDS:
* Raptors are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss.
* Cavaliers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
* Over is 4-0 in Raptors last 4 Conference Semifinals games.
* Over is 8-1 in Cavaliers last 9 home games.
* Road team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
Houston Rockets at San Antonio Spurs (-5.5, 215)
ABOUT THE ROCKETS (60-28 SU, 46-42 ATS, 44-43-1 O/U): The Houston Rockets delivered a stunning beat down in the opener of their series with San Antonio and aim to take a 2-0 series lead when they visit the Spurs on Wednesday. The opening salvo from the Rockets included 22 3-point baskets and bolstered the club's already-high hopes of claiming the series from San Antonio. Star guard James Harden contributed 20 points, 14 assists and four steals in the opener and downplayed the large margin of victory. "We are going to have to be in sync and focused like this in every game," Harden told reporters. "San Antonio is a veteran team, and they are capable of getting hot at any moment. I have to limit them. We were just taking what their defense gave us. "It was important for us to get off to a really good start, especially on the road, and our energy level was up and we were very active." Forward Trevor Ariza added 23 points and knocked down five 3-pointers in an eye-opening performance after he averaged just 6.2 points in the five-game first-round series against the Oklahoma City Thunder.
ABOUT THE SPURS (65-24 SU, 45-42-2 ATS, 49-38-2 O/U): The Spurs shot just 36.9 percent in Game 1 and had no answers on the defensive end during the highly disappointing effort. "We really have to step up, and it's hard to pinpoint something because we got outplayed in just about everything," San Antonio veteran guard Manu Ginobili told reporters. "We were not ready or attentive, and they were inspired - they played great." Star small forward Kawhi Leonard was just 5-of-14 shooting while registering 21 points and 11 rebounds in the opener and power forward LaMarcus Aldridge was inept with just four points on 2-of-7 shooting. "I just have to take my time," Aldridge said after Game 1. "I have to ask for the ball more for sure. And when I get it, take my time. I was trying to rush because there were so many mismatches on me." Point guard Tony Parker was unable to follow up his strong effort (27 points on 11-of-14 shooting) in the closeout win over the Memphis Grizzlies and had just 11 points on 3-of-9 shooting.
LINE HISTORY: The Spurs opened as 5.5-point home favorites for Game 2. The total hit the board at 216.5 and has dropped to 215.
INJURY REPORT:
Rockets - PF C. Onuaku (Elig. Friday, suspension).
Spurs - No injuries to report.
TRENDS:
* Rockets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Southwest.
* Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Conference Semifinals games.
* Over is 7-1 in Rockets last 8 Conference Semifinals games.
* Over is 5-0 in Spurs last 5 overall.
* Road team is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
Wednesday's Best Bet
By Sportsbook.ag
Houston vs. San Antonio
Best Bet: Houston/San Antonio Under 216
The Houston Rockets put on a shooting clinic in Game 1 as they blitzed the Spurs right from the get go, getting up 34-23 after the first quarter, 69-39 at half, and finished with a 126-99 victory.
It was Houston's strategy of three-pointers and layups played out to perfection as they knocked down 22 three-point shots on the hole and everyone was getting involved. Four different Rockets hit three or more shots from beyond the arc and the shooting barrage they put on gave them a 1-0 series lead and home court advantage in this series.
Tonight it's Game 2 and while everyone is interested to see how the Spurs and coach Gregg Popovich respond, San Antonio really has no choice but to respond well. Going down 0-2 and heading to Houston where the Rockets typically always shoot the ball well would be disastrous to the Spurs long-term hopes this year.
As of now, action on this point spread is basically split down the middle with a few more bettors grabbing the points with Houston again, but gun to my head, Popovich and the Spurs have been great at making adjustments and should be a play ON team tonight. That being said, the side isn't the best bet out there tonight as it's the total I'm looking to attack once again as I did so successfully in Game 1.
At initial glance, this play may be tough to hit “confirm wager” on giving the shooting clinic we saw from the Rockets in Game 1, but there's a good chance we don't see that again and San Antonio's top ranked defense shows up tonight. The Spurs have to make a concerted effort to chase Houston's shooters off the three-point line and not turn the ball over to get easy looks in transition. All year team's have struggled scoring consistently against the Spurs half-court sets and we should see much more of that in tonight's game.
Secondly, let me suggest a betting anecdote that does apply to this Game 2 tonight. As a sports bettor, after you hit a big selection – whether it be a 20-1 shot in golf, a four-team parlay, or anything in that regard – what tends to happen in the following day or two?
Typically, most bettors are feeling good about their handicapping process after a day like that and almost go out of their way to “take a shot.” These shots could come in the form of more parlays, much bigger wagers etc, but when you're playing with house money, taking those “shots” doesn't seem like a bad idea at the time.
However, almost inevitably it's those larger wagers or parlays that end up coming up short and all that profit you had 24-48 hours ago is down quite a bit and you're kicking yourself for being so loose with your bankroll and spoiling a great wager.
Well, the Houston Rockets are definitely playing with house money tonight and after watching everything drop through the hoop in Game 1, they won't be shy about letting things fly early and often tonight.
Now, obviously if things stay as hot as they were in the first game, this 'under' wager could be cooked rather early, but a general regression is coming in the very near future and Houston could very easily shoot themselves out of this game. That “house money” mentality could very well come back and bite the Rockets in the ass tonight if that's the case, and if San Antonio is to win – either SU or ATS – as they are favored to do, you've got to expect a lower-scoring game that finishes in the low 200's.
That leads me back to how the regular season meetings between the two played out with the total going 0-3-1 O/U and of those three 'unders', no game had more than 206 points scored. Tonight's game is as close to a “must-win” as it gets for San Antonio this early in a series, and for a Spurs defense that only allowed an average of 97.5 points per game at home this year, expect the Rockets to finish somewhere around that number.
That may be good enough for an outright win or ATS cover by Houston as the Spurs aren't exactly offensive juggernauts, but when you combine San Antonio's history of being great at making adjustments, the strong likelihood of Houston's shooting numbers to regress significantly, and the Spurs wanting to rely on their strength (defense) to get back on level ground in this series, the 'under' 216 is the best way to go on this game.