NBA betting trends, odds and predictions for Wednesday, November 8th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
NBA Knowledge
Knicks won/covered four of last five games with Orlando; under is 6-3 in last nine series games. New York is 3-1-1 vs spread in last five visits here. Knicks won six of last seven games; three of their last four went over the total. NY is 1-2 vs spread as a road underdog. Orlando lost their last two games; they’re 0-2 vs spread as a home favorite. Last three Magic home teams stayed under the total.
Pacers won/covered their last six games with Detroit; they’re 3-2 vs spread in last five visits to the Motor City (over 3-2). Indiana lost at home last night, their third loss in row; Pacers are 3-2 as a road underdog. Over is 4-2 in Indiana road games. Detroit won five of its last six games; they’re 3-2 vs spread as home favorites. Under is 3-2 in their home games this season.
Lakers lost their last three games with Boston, but covered seven of last nine, three of last four in Beantown. Under is 5-2 in last seven series games. Lakers won three of last four games; they are 2-1 as road underdogs. LA’s last three games went over the total. Celtics won their last nine games (8-1 vs spread); they’re 3-1 as home favorites. Under is 6-3 in their last nine games.
Miami won/covered nine of last ten games with Phoenix; under is 7-2 in last nine series games. Heat covered four of their last five visits to the desert. Miami lost five of last seven games; they are 1-3 on road, 0-1 as a road favorite. Last four Heat games stayed under the total. Suns lost their last three games; four of their last six games went over total. Phoenix is 2-1 vs spread as a home underdog.
Minnesota is 8-1-1 vs spread in its last 10 games vs Golden State (2-8 SU); they’re 4-0-1 vs spread in last five visits to Oakland. Under is 7-3 in last ten series games. Wolves won their last five games (4-0-1 vs spread); they’re 2-2 as road underdogs. Over is 4-1 in Minnesota road tilts. Golden State won four in row, seven of last eight games; they’re 1-4 vs spread as home favorites. Over is 4-2 in their last six games.
Armadillosports.com
Red-hot TWolves, Warriors battle
StatFox.com
The new-look Wolves get their first shot at the kings of the West.
Heading into Monday night's game with the Heat, the Warriors had lost six straight games when scoring under 100 points—they hadn't won one since April of last year against the Spurs. But, despite a tough shooting night, Golden State broke that streak against Miami with an easy 97-80 win. It was the team's fourth straight victory, and their seventh in eight games after a surprising 1-2 start to the year. On Wednesday night the Dubs will host Minnesota in one of the more anticipated matchups of the young season, as the upstart Timberwolves have added superstar SF Jimmy Butler to a lineup that could pose a challenge to Golden State's Western Conference supremacy in years to come, if perhaps not this season. The Wolves are 7-3 on the year but 7-1 in games in which Butler has played, including recent victories over Dallas and Charlotte that have come by a combined 31 points. Minnesota has won five in a row. Over the last five seasons, teams coming off of three consecutive covers as a favorite (GSW) are 3-10 ATS in November games. Since 1996, road underdogs of 10 or more points allowing an opponent shooting percentage of at least .480 on the season (MIN) are 134-81 ATS.
The Warriors had trouble finding the mark against the Heat on Monday, shooting 29.2% from the floor in the first quarter before going on to shooting 36.8% on the night. As the final score suggests, though, the Heat fared worse (36.1%) thanks to some strong Golden State defense. The long-limbed Warriors also forced 23 turnovers from Miami, while committing only 15 of their own. Last season, the Warriors were second to only the Spurs in allowing 101.1 points per 100 possessions. Their defense hasn't been quite as stingy this year at a defensive rating of 102.9, but that mark is still good for 13th in the league and, as the Miami performance showed, they're gelling quickly. SF Kevin Durant led the team in scoring against the Heat with 21 points, while also pitching in eight rebounds and six assists. He's shooting 53.0% from the floor this year. SG Klay Thompson and PF Draymond Green are also at least at the 50.0% mark (50.8% and 50.0, respectively), a mark that is unsustainable but representative of the team finding plenty of open looks. Green was one of the few Warriors who shot well against the Heat, as he was 4-of-6 from three-point land. PG Stephen Curry leads the team in scoring at 25.7 PPG, but is yet to score more than 22 points in a game through three November contests.
It's no surprise that Butler has fit in so well considering he's coached by Tom Thibodeau, the guy whose system he bought into so fully in Chicago. Butler is an old-school, hard-nosed hard worker, and the fact that he emphasizes full effort on the defensive end of the floor despite his superstar status serves as a positive example for teammates. He's only scoring 15.1 PPG, putting him third on the team, and has taken different roles in the offense depending on the game. On October 27th, he scored 25 points in a tight win over the Thunder. This past Saturday, he only managed four points in a 112-99 win against Dallas. The Timberwolves' leading scorer (and rebounder and shot-blocker) is 21-year-old C Karl-Anthony Towns, whose scoring 21.8 PPG (10.9 RPG; 2.0 BPG). His 33 pt/19 reb and 31/12 lines in those OKC and Dallas games, respectively, show the kind of dominant force he can be on offense and the boards. His incredibly poor defense, though, has come under fire already this year. He certainly has the physical tools, and if Thibs of all people can't straighten him out on that end, it will soon become a real concern. PG Jeff Teague and PF Taj Gibson join Butler as new starters in Minnesota this season, and Teague is averaging a career-high 8.4 APG. Former No. 1 draft pick SF Andrew Wiggins has noticeably improved his offensive skills in what is now his fourth year in the league.
Wednesday's Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Game of the Night: Wolves at Warriors
Minnesota (7-3 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) is finally coming around to become a legitimate playoff team in the Western Conference following a 13-year postseason drought. The Wolves own a solid 7-1 record when guard Jimmy Butler is in the lineup, while coming off five consecutive victories. Minnesota cruised past Dallas and Charlotte at home by double-digits, while limiting three straight opponents to below 100 points. Tom Thibodeau’s squad heads out west for a three-game road swing that extends to Phoenix on Saturday and Utah on Monday.
Golden State (8-3, 5-6 ATS) is fresh off four blowouts following a home loss to Detroit on October 29. The Warriors rolled past the Heat on Monday, 97-80 to cash as 14½-point favorites in spite of shooting 37% from the floor. Steve Kerr’s club began the season with a dreadful 1-6 ATS record, but has covered in each of their last four victories, although only one of those ATS covers came as a double-digit favorite.
Last season, the Warriors captured three of four meetings from the Wolves, but Minnesota managed a 3-0-1 ATS record in the series. Minnesota has compiled an incredible 8-1-1 ATS mark in the past 10 matchups with Golden State since 2014, including a 4-0-1 ATS ledger in its past five visits to Oracle Arena. Minnesota forward Andrew Wiggins was limited to 16 points in the first meeting last season, but scored 25, 24, and 24 points in the final three matchups with Golden State.
New Bird vs. Magic?
The Lakers/Celtics rivalry from the 1980’s is long gone although these teams met in the NBA Finals are recently as 2010. Young stars for each of these legendary franchises have taken over with Boston’s Kyrie Irving squaring off Los Angeles rookie Lonzo Ball at TD Garden for the first time. Boston (9-2 SU, 9-2 ATS) lost its first two games of the season before ripping off nine consecutive victories. The Celtics failed to cover in their last contest on Monday in a three-point win at Atlanta, snapping an eight-game ATS hot streak.
Los Angeles (5-5 SU, 6-4 ATS) leaves the west coast for the first time this season, trying to build off back-to-back home wins over Brooklyn and Memphis. The Lakers are currently on a 4-0 ATS hot streak, which includes a cover in their last road game, a 113-110 setback at Portland as 6½-point underdogs. Ball has struggled to score in his rookie campaign as he reached double-figures only twice, while scoring a combined 15 points in his past three games.
The Lakers have seen success in their last few visits to Beantown from an ATS perspective by covering in the past two trips to Boston as double-digit underdogs, including a 112-104 victory in 2015.
Addition by Subtraction
Suddenly the Knicks (6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS) look like a new team since dealing Carmelo Anthony to the Thunder prior to the season. New York has overcome an 0-3 start by winning six of its last seven games, including pulling off another epic second half comeback in Tuesday’s 118-113 home triumph over Charlotte as short underdogs. Kristaps Porzingis led the rally for New York by scoring 28 points on 10-of-15 shooting, while former OKC sharpshooter Doug McDermott put up 20 points off the bench on 7-of-8 shooting.
The Knicks head to Orlando with no rest to take on the surprising Magic (6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS). Orlando looks to finish off its homestand with a victory after losing to Chicago and Boston by double-digits. The Magic thrived offensively through their first eight games by topping the 113-point mark seven times, but Orlando has taken a step back of late by putting up 83 and 88 in the last two contests. Last season, the Knicks claimed three of four meetings from the Magic, including a pair of victories in central Florida.
All Systems Go
Was this finally the season that Stan Van Gundy’s Pistons would break out and return to the playoffs in the East? Detroit (7-3 SU, 7-2-1 ATS) is one of the top teams from an ATS perspective, while owning a 3-1-1 ATS mark at brand new Little Caesars Arena. The Pistons continue a five-game homestand with the Pacers after beating the Bucks and Kings on a back-to-back set last weekend. Detroit has plenty to play for against an Indiana squad that swept the Pistons last season, while limiting the Pistons to 98 points or less three times.
Indiana (5-6 SU, 6-5 ATS) continues to ride a roller-coaster this season, winning three straight with victories over Cleveland and San Antonio in a four-day span, but now riding a three-game skid. The most recent loss came at home to New Orleans on Tuesday, 117-112, as all three teams the Pacers have lost to in this stretch have been on fire of late (Pelicans, Knicks, 76ers).
Fire Starters
The Heat and Suns will look to keep the building hot in Phoenix when they meet up. Miami (4-6 SU, 2-6-2 ATS) continues a six-game road trip as the Heat have posted a 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS record so far. The Heat dropped a one-point decision at Denver last Friday, but bounced back by holding off the Clippers on Sunday, 104-101. Miami’s defense performed well on Monday, but its offense was non-existent in a 97-80 loss at Golden State as the Heat are riding a four-game UNDER streak.
The Suns (4-7 SU, 5-6 ATS) finally moved on from Eric Bledsoe as the disgruntled guard was dealt to Milwaukee on Tuesday. Phoenix heated up following the firing of head coach Earl Watson by going 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS from October 23 through November 1, but have gone backwards of late by posting an 0-3 SU/ATS the last three games. The Suns lost eight straight meetings with the Heat from 2012 through 2016, but split a pair of matchups last season, including a 99-90 home victory as five-point favorites.
NBA Pick 'n' Roll: Wednesday's Picks and Analysis
Covers.com
New York Knicks at Orlando Magic (-5.5, 213.5)
Not many teams can get by when the two guys at the top of the point guard depth chart go down to injury. Magic starter Elfrid Payton strained his hamstring in the second game of the season and backup D.J. Augustin pulled his hammy at Memphis last week.
Orlando is trying to make due with third stringer Sheldon Mack sharing the point guard duties with swing man Jonathan Simmons. The experiment is not working out very well. The Magic are 0-2 straight up and against the spread since Augustin joined Payton on the injured list.
“It’s just a challenge because you have to put in a different guy in that position who has to run the team and he doesn’t really know all the sets from that position,” Magic center Nikola Vucevic told the Orlando Sentinel. “It was such a short time for Simmons to learn them all. So you kind of have to go away from some of the stuff that was working really well for you because he’s not at that position.”
Making matters worse, the Magic have to dream up a game plan for slowing down the Big Apple’s Big Unicorn. Aaron Gordon will likely get the assignment guarding Knicks big man Kristaps Porzingis. Gordon should be able to keep up with the Zinger, but he’s giving up six inches. It could mean a lot of clean looks at the rim for Porzingis.
Pick: Knicks +5.5
Minnesota Timberwolves at Golden State Warriors (-11, 229.5)
This is a larger spread on the surface than you would expect just by looking at the two records of the teams playing. The 7-3 T-Wolves enter the Bay Area riding a five-game win streak and own a tidy 5-0-1 ATS mark vs. the Warriors in their last six matchups.
The difference between the two sides is the numbers say the Wolves aren’t as good as their record and the Warriors are better than theirs.
Minnesota is 5-1 this season in games decided by 10 or fewer points. The club has also been blown out by Detroit and Indiana which helps explain why it owns a mediocre -0.5 net rating. Golden State, meanwhile is outscoring its opponents by 13.5 points per 100 possessions and sits first in Covers.com NBA power rankings – 11 spots above the Timberwolves.
Pick: Warriors -11
Yesterday’s picks: 1-1
Season record: 22-22
Total Streaks
*The Under is 12-3 in the Pistons’ last 15 home games.
*The Under is 4-0 in the Magic’s last four games.
*The Under is 4-0 in the Heat’s last four games.
Injury to Watch
Pacers center Domantas Sabonis missed Tuesday’s home loss against the Pelicans and is questionable to play against the Pistons because of a strained calf. Sabonis was the fill-in starting center while Myles Turner was out and he played great. The second-year pro is the Pacers’ fourth-leading scorer at 13.5 points per game and leading rebounder at 10.3 per game.
Trends
*The Knicks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games.
*The Lakers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games.
*The Celtics are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games playing on one days’ rest.
*The Heat are 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 games.
Consensus
Nearly 65 percent of players like the C’s to cover as 8.5-point home favorites tonight against the Lakers.
NBA GOTD Betting Preview: Timberwolves at Warriors
Covers.com
Minnesota Timberwolves at Golden State Warriors (-10.5, 229.5)
The Golden State Warriors wow fans with their offensive exploits, but they also do strong work on the other end of the floor. The Warriors, who led the NBA in defensive field-goal percentage en route to the championship last season, will try to follow up their best defensive performance of the 2017-18 campaign with another strong effort when they host the Minnesota Timberwolves on Wednesday.
Golden State did not get off to the best start on the defensive end this season but is coming on of late and put everything together while holding the Miami heat to 36.1 percent shooting in a 97-80 victory on Monday. "I thought it was our best defensive effort of the year," Warriors coach Steve Kerr told reporters. "It was tremendous. We forced 23 turnovers, we were attentive on our switching. ... I thought we made really good decisions out there." The Timberwolves should pose a challenge to that defense after averaging 114.4 points during a five-game winning streak. Minnesota boasts five scorers averaging double figures, led by Karl-Anthony Towns' 21.8 points, and is enjoying the franchise's first five-game winning streak since 2009.
LINE HISTORY: The Warriors opened as 10-point home favorites and that spread has been bet up slightly to -10.5. The total hit betting boards at 228 and has been bumped to 229.5. Check out the complete line history here.
INJURY REPORT:
Timberwolves - C J. Patton (Out Indefinitely, Toe).
Warriors - No injuries to report.
POWER RANKINGS: Timberwolves (-7.8 ) - Warriors (-18) + home court (-3) = Warriors -13.2
CHAMPIONSHIP FUTURES:
T-Wolves +4,000
Warriors -200
ABOUT THE TIMBERWOLVES (7-3 SU, 5-4-1 ATS, 6-3-1 O/U): Minnesota brought in veterans Jimmy Butler and Jeff Teague over the summer to supplement a solid young corps, and they believe the team is only scratching the surface. "This is still a work in progress," Teague told the Minneapolis Star Tribune. "We're still trying to figure out each other. It can be a lot better. We all know that. We're starting to get into a groove here. But we have miles to go to be the team we want to be." Teague recorded 18 points and 12 assists in a 112-94 win over the Charlotte Hornets on Sunday to continue his own groove with a fourth double-double in five games.
ABOUT THE WARRIORS (8-3 SU, 5-6 ATS, 7-4 O/U): Golden State leads the NBA in scoring average (118.5 points) and assists (30.5) but suffered through a rare off shooting night while connecting at 36.8 percent in Monday's win. That slump did not extend to forward Draymond Green, who scored 18 points on 5-of-10 shooting and is 23-of-34 from the floor during a four-game winning streak. The reigning NBA Defensive Player of the Year averaged 7.1 points on 36.4 percent shooting in the first seven games but scored at least 15 points in each of the last four contests.
TRENDS:
* Timberwolves are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Warriors are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
* Over is 5-1 in Timberwolves last 6 road games.
* Over is 10-2 in Warriors last 12 vs. Western Conference.
* Timberwolves are 5-0-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
CONSENSUS: 62 percent of the spread wagers are on the road underdog Wolves while 72 percent of the totals selections are on the Over.