NBA betting trends, odds and predictions for Thursday, November 16th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
GOLDEN STATE (11 - 3) at BOSTON (13 - 2) - 11/16/2017, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all games this season.
BOSTON is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in the first half of the season this season.
BOSTON is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 40-25 ATS (+12.5 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 34-22 ATS (+9.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 2-1 against the spread versus GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 2-2 straight up against GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON (11 - 4) at PHOENIX (5 - 10) - 11/16/2017, 10:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 4-3 against the spread versus PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 6-1 straight up against PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
6 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE @ BOSTON
Golden State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Golden State is 17-2 SU in its last 19 games on the road
Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
HOUSTON @ PHOENIX
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games when playing Phoenix
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Phoenix
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Phoenix's last 5 games when playing Houston
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Phoenix's last 9 games when playing at home against Houston
StatFox Super Situations
GOLDEN STATE at BOSTON
Play Under - Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 an excellent offensive team (>=102 PPG) against an average defensive team (92-98 PPG), after allowing 100 points or more 3 straight games 47-19 since 1997. ( 71.2% | 26.1 units ) 2-1 this year. ( 66.7% | 0.9 units )
GOLDEN STATE at BOSTON
Play Against - Any team vs the money line (BOSTON) after 6 or more consecutive wins, in a game involving two top-level teams (>= 75%) 42-26 since 1997. ( 61.8% | 26.9 units )
HOUSTON at PHOENIX
Play On - Underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (PHOENIX) after allowing 100 points or more 4 straight games against opponent after allowing 60 points or more in the first half last game 181-109 since 1997. ( 62.4% | 61.1 units ) 7-5 this year. ( 58.3% | 1.5 units )
NBA Knowledge
Celtics won their last 13 games after an 0-2 start; they’re 5-0 vs spread as an underdog this year. Under is 5-2 in their last seven games. Golden State won its last seven games (6-1 vs spread); three of their last four games stayed under. Warriors are 4-2 vs spread as a road favorite. Road team won last five Warrior-Celtic games; Golden State won its last four visits to Boston, by 20-5-5-16 points. Under is 8-2 in last ten series games.
Mike D’Antoni returns to Phoenix with his 11-4 Rockets, who are 7-1 on road, 4-2 as a road favorite. Houston won six of its last seven games- over is 6-2 in their last eight. Houston won six of last seven series games; they’re 4-2 vs spread in last six visits to the desert. Over is 9-1 in last ten series games. Phoenix lost six of its last seven games; they’re 3-3 as a home underdog. Under is 4-2 in their last six games.
Armadillosports.com
Red-hot Celtics host Warriors
By: Sam Chase
StatFox.com
The upstart Celtics will get a serious test against the visiting Warriors on Thursday.
There's no lens through which the Celtics' double-digit win streak at the beginning of this season isn't wildly impressive. After losing Gordon Hayward to a devastating injury and losing the first two games of the season, Boston seemingly decided to just stop losing, racking up wins in contests that included opponents like San Antonio, Oklahoma City and Toronto. It's a campaign that's been made even more impressive by the fact that Hayward isn't the only one who's been out; PG Kyrie Irving, PF Al Horford, PF Marcus Morris and SG Marcus Smart have all missed some games for various reasons. The one "asterisk" on the streak, if it could be called that, is that the Celtics haven't played very difficult competition. That certainly will change on Thursday night, when Boston hosts the reigning NBA champion Golden State Warriors for a nationally televised matchup. The Warriors are off to an 11-3 start, and it should tell you something about their talent that that record qualifies as something of a disappointment. The Warriors will have had two nights of rest after beating Orlando on Monday, a game in which PG Stephen Curry didn't play. As of Tuesday morning, he was listed as questionable for Thursday's game. Irving was questionable to play Tuesday night after suffering a facial injury last week. Obviously, if he plays against Brooklyn without any issues, he should be good to go against Golden State.
A Sunday afternoon matchup against the Raptors marked Horford's return from two games out of the lineup while he was in concussion protocol, while it was Irving's first full game out with an injury (albeit effectively his second). Horford stepped up on offense in Kyrie's absence, scoring 21 points on deadly-efficient 8-of-9 shooting from the floor. Horford has been a beast this season, seemingly playing with a new-found aggression on offense. It's a shift that has largely been brought about by Irving's arrival in Boston, as the two shared an innate offensive chemistry the second they took the court together. Their pick and roll is already one of the most deadly in the NBA. It certainly didn't take Irving to look comfortable in green, as he's made all the same difficult shots he always has while seamlessly integrating into coach Brad Stevens' ball-motion offense. The third banana, depending on the game, has been second-year SG Jaylen Brown or rookie SF Jayson Tatum. Tatum would be the prospective Rookie of the Year if not for injury holdover Ben Simmons, thanks to his already polished offensive game and a defensive awareness that seems miles ahead of what he displayed at Duke next year. There's still plenty of polish to come for Brown, but he's well on his way to becoming an impact player. C Aron Baynes has stunningly looked like a one-man solution to the defensive rebounding issues that have plagued Boston for years. PGs Terry Rozier and Shane Larkin see more ballhandling duties if and when Irving sits, as does Smart.
It's no secret that the Warriors are stacked, as a team would have to be to be overwhelming favorites even with Curry out of the lineup. Such was the case when the Dubs took down Orlando on Monday, 110-100, for their seventh straight victory. SF Kevin Durant picked up the slack with 21 points, seven rebounds and eight assists, while PF Draymond Green ascended from his usual offensive role to score 20 points on 8-of-11 shooting. Green also posted a game-high plus/minus of +25 in 32 minutes, nine points better than anyone else who played. Clearly, his essentialness to the team has not diminished over the years. It was a role reversal from earlier in the month for Steph and KD, as Curry put up a 22-point, eight-rebound, eight-assist statline against Minnesota when Durant sat out with a bruised thigh. It's a luxury for coach Steve Kerr to sit superstar players without truly interrupting his offense, and it's one he's not hesitant to take advantage of these days. Recently, on KD's YouTube channel (seriously), SG Klay Thompson referred to his jumpshot as "art." He's not wrong. Klay's averaging 20.6 PPG on the young season, which would be his lowest such number since 2013-14, but he's shooting the hell out of the ball: His 47.7 three-point percentage needs no contextualizing. He led the team in scoring with 28 points in the game that Durant missed against the Timberwolves. At only 5.1 PPG, SF Andre Iguodala can easily be overlooked, but his 25+ MPG off the bench make him one of the team's most integral contributors. Fellow bench-mobbers PF David West, SG Nick Young and PG Shaun Livingston give the Warriors a depth that is practically unfair, given their talent in the starting lineup.
Inside the Paint - Thursday
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Even though we’re still in the middle of football season, the NBA will receive extra attention this Thursday. The betting slate will feature two teams with the best records in the league when Boston (13-2 SU, 12-2-1 ATS) hosts the defending champion Golden State (11-3 SU, 7-7 ATS) from TD Garden.
After losing All-Star Gordon Hayward to a freak ankle injury in its first game of the season, many pundits including myself wrote off Boston. Despite going down in the opening minutes, the Celtics were competitive but still dropped a 102-99 decision at Cleveland. One night later, Boston was playing on emotions at home and they had a solid Milwaukee team on the ropes. Unfortunately, they ran out of gas late in a 108-100 decision to the Bucks and fell to 0-2.
Fast forward nearly a month and Boston still hasn’t suffered a setback since that defeat to the Bucks. The Celtics have ripped off 13 straight wins and they’ve covered 11 of those games. Brad Stevens and company own the best record on the hardwood and also the top mark at the betting counter.
One week after listing Boston as a 15/1 betting choice to win the 2017-18 NBA Finals, the Las Vegas Westgate SuperBook pushed the club up to 40/1 odds. Their odds to win the Eastern Conference rose from 4/1 to 10/1.
This past Monday, the SuperBook have since readjusted their numbers on Boston and they’re back to 15/1 to capture the finals and 5/1 to win the East.
So who deserves the credit for the results in Boston?
While many would attribute the success to the offseason acquisition of point guard Kyrie Irving, that’s a lazy take when you realize that all of his numbers (21.6 PPG, 5.5 APG, 3.1 RPG) are down this season and the Celtics just beat the Hornets and Raptors without his services due to a facial injury.
Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu told VegasInsider.com that Irving was a 12/1 choice to win this year’s NBA Most Valuable Player award and while those prop numbers aren’t available at this time, the offshore outfit would have him at 5/1. If Boston keeps this pace up, he should be in the running but I'm guessing James Harden captures the hardware this summer.
Some experts are putting stock into Stevens and while he’s highly regarded in coaching circles, it’s hard for me to credit a guy with a career 11-17 record in the playoffs just yet. Plus I’m not sure if you can pat a coach on the back for the improvement from second-year player Jaylen Brown (14.7 PPG) or the steady production from rookie Jayson Tatum (14 PPG, 5 RPG) so far. If anything, Stevens should be thanking general manager Danny Ainge.
Regardless of who deserves credit, the main reason for Boston’s success during the winning streak has been its defense. The club is holding opponents to a league-best 94.5 points per game, which is ridiculous considering how many teams push the pace in the NBA. Along with scoring, they’re also ranked first in field goal defense (42.9%) and they’ve done a great job of keeping teams off the free throw line (20.3 attempts, No. 7) as well.
That unit is going to be tested on Thursday against the Warriors, who lead the league in scoring (119.6 PPG), field goal percentage (51.9%), 3-point shooting (41.2%) and they’re third in free-throw percentage (83.1%) by a few decimals.
Oddsmakers at BookMaker.eu opened Golden State as a six-point home favorite and the number inched up to seven as of Thursday morning.
The Warriors bring a seven-game winning streak (6-1 ATS) into this tilt and on the road, they’ve gone 5-1 this season. Plus, it owns a 4-2 ATS mark in those games. They’ve covered their last four away games and all of those decisions were decided by double digits and that’s been a common theme for Golden State.
Golden State has only played in two games decided by three points or less and it’s gone 1-1 in those contests while Boston has posted a 3-1 mark in those tight scenarios.
Despite owning a 5-1 record versus the East this season, the Warriors are just 2-4 ATS in those games and that includes a non-cover in Monday’s 110-100 win over Orlando as a 12-point favorite. Boston is 4-0 versus the West and wins versus San Antonio and Oklahoma City should be noted.
The Celtics have been listed as underdogs five times (4-1 SU, 5-0 ATS) and this will be the second instance where they’re catching points at home. They stopped Toronto 95-94 this past Sunday and this was the victory with the aforementioned absence of Irving.
Even though Golden State has won seven of the past 10 meetings in this series, Boston has won two of the last three matchups which includes a split last season. Make a note that the Warriors ripped the Celtics 104-88 on the road last November and the Celtics avenged the loss in the Bay Area but Golden State was without All-Star Kevin Durant. Despite the losing record, the Celtics have been very profitable at 7-3 ATS against the Warriors during this span while total players have watched the ‘under’ go 8-2.
Thursday's total is hovering around 215 and that's the second lowest total that Golden State has seen this season. Also, Boston has had three games with totals listed at 215 or above and the 'under' is 3-0 in those contests. It shouldn't come as a surprise that Boston's defensive tendencies have helped the 'under' go 10-5 this season.
While the playoffs are many months away, we asked Cooley for guesstimated odds on possible matchups that his offshore outfit could offer for the Celtics against both the Cavaliers and Warriors at this time.
Potential Series Prices – per BookMaker.eu
Cleveland -130 Boston +100
Golden State -240, Boston +215
A lot can happen between now and June but it’s very apparent that Boston has been adjusted at all major betting shops.
Houston (11-4 SU, 8-7 ATS) at Phoenix (5-10 SU, 6-9 ATS)
The late-night game in the NBA on Thursday takes place in the desert and no overnight numbers were sent out on this matchup but it’s clear that Houston will be a road favorite over a struggling Phoenix squad. Playing away from home hasn’t been an issue for the Rockets this season and VegasInsider.com Tony Mejia hit on their success in his Weekly Six-pack piece.
Mejia noted, “They're 7-1 on the road (5-3 ATS) and will return to Memphis, site of that 103-89 Oct. 28 loss this Saturday. If they can defeat the Suns and Grizzlies on the road this week as likely favorites, they'll enter December having won 90 percent of their roadies.”
Houston is coming off its worse loss of the season on Tuesday, a 129-113 setback to Toronto as a 6 ½-point home favorite. The loss snapped a six-game winning streak for the Rockets and it was their worst defensive effort of the season.
The first month of the season for the Suns has been a rollercoaster and that description is a little subtle. After starting 0-3, the fired their coach Earl Watson and suspended their point guard Eric Bledsoe, who has since been traded to Milwaukee. They went on a bit of a run after shaking up the team with a 4-1 record and they covered all five of those games.
Since that hot spell, Phoenix has gone 1-6 both SU and ATS. The Suns own the worst scoring defense in the league (115.1 PPG) and they’re second to last in fouls per game, which often puts the opposition in the free throw bonus early.
If you’re taking the Suns tonight, you’re hoping for high percentage from the field because that’s the only way they have any chance to win yet alone cover. They just beat Minnesota 118-110 last Saturday as a 10-point home ‘dog but they shot a blistering 53.5 percent from the field. Overall, the Suns have gone 2-4 SU and 3-3 ATS in the desert.
Houston has won all four meeting against Phoenix last season and they covered three of the wins. The ‘over’ cashed in every contest and the high side is on a 9-1 run in this series.
The Rockets are expected to get point guard Chris Paul back in the lineup after sitting out the last 14 games with a knee injury. It will be interesting to see the chemistry for Houston tonight but it’s a perfect situation for Paul knowing Phoenix has by far the least talented point guards (Mike James, Tyler Ulis) in the NBA.
Phoenix was sent out as an 11-point home underdog early this morning and the number has been climbing. The total is 228.
NBA Pick 'n' Roll: Thursday's Pick and Analysis
Covers.com
Golden State Warriors at Boston Celtics (+7.5, 215)
This is a rare line. It’s not often a team with Boston’s win percentage is a home underdog. We looked back as far as 1990 and couldn’t find an NBA team with an .800 or better win percentage after at least 12 regular season games this large of a home underdog.
The closest we found was in 2014 when the Houston Rockets were 4.5-point home dogs against the Los Angeles Clippers. Part of the reason for that was Dwight Howard was missing. Howard might be a non-factor to the line at this point in his career but back in 2014 his absence would have meant an adjustment to the spread.
Home underdogs with a record as good as Boston are 10-4 against the spread and 9-5 straight up, again, since 1990.
Pick: Celtics +7.5
Yesterday’s picks: 0-2
Season record: 27-31
Total Streaks
*The over is 13-3 in Warriors' last 16 road games.
*The under is 5-2 in Celtics' last seven overall.
*The over is 6-0 in the last six meetings between the Suns and Rockets.
*The over is 6-2 in Rockets' last eight overall.
Injury to Watch
Chris Paul will make his return to the Rockets after sitting out the last 14 games with a knee injury. The former All-Star point guard is expected to start and there’s been no word on any type of minutes restriction.
Warriors point guard Steph Curry sat out Monday night against Orlando due to a thigh injury but is listed as probable to play against the Celtics on Thursday.
Ref to Watch
Home teams are 8-1 against the spread and 9-0 straight up in games worked by James Capers. He’s the lead official in tonight’s Warriors-Celtics game and the C’s are 7.5-point home underdogs.
Trends
*The Warriors are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.
*The Celtics are 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13 games.
*The Suns are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.
Consensus
About 62 percent of users expect the Celtics to cover as 7.5-point home underdogs against the Warriors on Thursday.
Hoop Trends - Thursday
By Vince Akins
VegasInsider.com
ATS TREND OF THE DAY:
The Warriors are 11-0-1 ATS (7.92 ppg) since Mar 20, 2017 on the road off a double-digit win.
OU TREND OF THE DAY:
The Suns are 17-0 OU (9.47 ppg) since Nov 12, 2015 with more than one day of rest when it is before the All-Star break.
PLAYER TREND OF THE DAY:
The Rockets are 0-9 OU (-8.61 ppg) since Jan 29, 2017 on the road after James Harden had at least half of the teams assists last game.
CHOICE TREND:
The Celtics are 9-0 ATS (6.89 ppg) since Apr 23, 2017 with rest off a win in a road game.