Betting news, trends, odds and predictions for Saturday, April 28, 2018 from various handicappers and websites
NBA playoffs
Saturday’s games
Bucks @ Celtics (3-3)
Home side won last eight series games, including all six this month; Bucks are 1-4 vs spread in their last five visits to Boston. Over is 6-2 in last ten series games (0-2 in last two). Milwaukee needs either Brogdon/Bledsoe to step up and be Bucks’ third double figure scorer. Bucks lost last four road games overall (0-4 vs spread)- four of their last five road games went over. Celtics won/covered five of last six home games, winning at home by 5-14-6 points in this series. Five of their last six home games went over.
Pelicans @ Warriors (0-0)
Golden State won nine of last ten games with New Orleans but Pelicans won last visit here April 7; this matters lot more now. Pelicans are 5-3 vs spread in last eight series games; they’re 2-3 vs spread in last five visits to Oakland. Over is 8-2 in last ten series games. New Orleans swept Portland 4-0; they’ve won/covered their last nine games, five of which were on road. Warriors beat San Antonio in five games, winning home tilts by 8-15-21 points. Under is 4-2-1 in their last seven games. Curry’s status for this series is unknown.
Saturday NBA Playoffs Best Bet
Milwaukee vs. Boston – Game 7 (TNT, 8:05 p.m. ET)
While it's not certain we will have any more Game 7's in the first round of the NBA playoffs at the time of this writing, we've at least got one, as the Bucks look to knock of Boston on Saturday night and get the first road victory for any team in this series.
To not get by the first round for the second straight year would be a tough blow for this Milwaukee franchise, especially considering Boston is ravaged with injuries this year and likely have their sights set on title runs in the upcoming seasons.
That's not to say Boston's not going to try and go as far as they can this year, but for a Bucks team that is looking more and more like Giannis Antetokounmpo and nobody else (like they were a year ago), not taking advantage of this opportunity would sting.
Yet, the fact remains that no road team has won a game yet in this series, and only once have the visitor's covered the number (Boston in Game 4). Milwaukee is going to have to buck – no pun intended – all of that and some significant history to move on to the next round, and you always know that the ghosts of the Boston Garden may be lurking in a pivotal Game 7 like this.
So who wins?
BetOnline.ag Odds: Boston (-4.5); Total set at 195
During any round of the NBA playoffs in the history of the league, at least during seven-game series, home teams in Game 7 like Boston who have won the prior three home games and lost the three on the road have a 17-4 SU record overall. That's good for a .810 win percentage which makes that uphill climb Milwaukee has to do seem all the more difficult. The good news for the Bucks is that situation has home teams just 2-1 SU specifically in the first round of the NBA playoffs, although it was only fairly recently (2003) that the NBA went to a seven-game format for the first round.
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History is something I always consider during the playoffs, and it's usually not something I like to go against, but each series is looked at on it's own case by case basis. And regarding this Bucks/Celtics series, I think history can be ignored a bit more here, simply because it's actually the Bucks who are the ones with the best player on the floor (Antetokounmpo), and in the NBA, that means a lot.
Game 5 was a big lesson for the Bucks as after the were in a similar position trying to win on the road and take control of the series. It was a brutal start for them (down 11 at half), but they put much of that burden on themselves by trying to let their supporting cast carry the bulk of the workload. Antetokounmpo was fourth on the team in shot attempts (10) as others like Middleton, Parker, and Bledsoe shot the ball more with much less success.
That's a solid formula for success at home, but on the road in the playoffs, you've got to ride or die with your superstars and hopefully for Bucks fans, their team learned that lesson after Game 5. I expect Antetokounmpo to be ultra-aggressive from the outset of Game 7 and if him getting going frees up more space for his supporting cast I've already mentioned, then the Bucks could have something on their hands.
Boston is a team that's gotten comfortable in finding W's at home, but I feel they are relying on home court way too much at times. They've yet to really face the Bucks at their best in any of the three games in Boston, and aside from a Game 2 blowout win, the Celtics have been lucky to survive. They've blown big leads in both Games 1 and 5 to either have Milwaukee tie the game or be within one possession, and playing with fire like that is eventually going to get them burned.
So while history may suggest this Game 7 is Boston's to lose, I would not be surprised to see that exactly be the case. Milwaukee has the best player on the floor and if they allow him to shine the brightest and let everyone come along for the ride, then it will be the Bucks who are still playing basketball next week.
A lack of execution late in Games 1 and 5, and Boston's ability to make Antentokounmpo uncomfortable down the stretch with their defense, forcing others on Milwaukee to hit a shot, has me tentative on taking Milwaukee outright, but I've got no problem grabbing these mufti-possession points as if Milwaukee doesn't win SU, they aren't going to lose this game by more than four.
Odds per - BetOnline.ag
Best Bet: Milwaukee +4.5
Preview: Bucks at Celtics
Gracenote
Apr 27, 2018
The home team won the first six games of the first-round series between Milwaukee and Boston and Bucks superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo is out to change that pattern in Saturday's Game 7. The "Greek Freak" can add to his reputation if he can steer Milwaukee past the Celtics in Boston and into the second round of the Eastern Conference playoffs.
Antetokounmpo recorded 31 points and 14 rebounds as the Bucks forced a Game 7 with Thursday's 97-86 victory, and the seventh-seeded Bucks clearly know what to expect in their fourth game in Boston in the series. "It's going to be crazy. It's do or die at this point," Bucks forward Khris Middleton told reporters. "The crowd in Boston is rowdy, just like they are (in Milwaukee). It's going to be a great game. There are no secrets between teams. It comes down to who has more will." The second-seeded Celtics weren't supposed to receive such a tussle from the Bucks and are unexpectedly in need of a win to keep their season alive. "The result is our guys get to experience a Game 7, which, again, we didn't want," Celtics coach Brad Stevens told reporters. "Game 7 in TD Garden is what you play for. It should be what you're excited most about. What you worked for all summer, what you worked for all year. It's a blast."
TV: 8 p.m. ET, TNT, FS Wisconsin (Milwaukee), NBCS Boston
ABOUT THE BUCKS: Antetokounmpo scored 30 or more points on three occasions in the series but his aggressiveness was back at a star level on Thursday after he took just 10 shots in a Game 5 loss in Boston. "I thought he played great," Bucks interim head coach Joe Prunty told reporters of Antetokounmpo. "I don't think he forced anything. I think he took opportunities that were there for him. He knows the spots to get to, but we also have to give him spacing around him to make sure we are in the right spots so that he has room to operate. ... Overall, Giannis played an outstanding game." The play of Antetokounmpo (26.3 points, 9.7 rebounds) and Middleton (23.5 average) has been consistently good but the duo needs someone from the trio of guard Eric Bledsoe (12 points per game), forward Jabari Parker (10.2) and guard Malcolm Brogdon (9.8) to step up on Saturday.
ABOUT THE CELTICS: The failure to close out the series in Milwaukee didn't faze most of the Boston players as they return to a venue in which they have won three times during the playoff matchup. "This is where home-court advantage comes up, where we've been playing the right way all season," second-year shooting guard Jaylen Brown told reporters. "This is where playing the right basketball all year long is going to come to a benefit. Game 7, a lot of people haven't experienced it on this team. It's crazy, and I expect nothing short of a tremendous performance from everybody." Brown (20.5) is one of five Celtics averaging in double digits in the series with center Al Horford (16.8 points, 8.8 rebounds), guard Terry Rozier (16.2), small forward Jayson Tatum (14.7) and power forward Marcus Morris (13.8) being the others.
BUZZER BEATERS
1. Boston won its three previous home games in the series by an average of 8.3 points.
2. Morris (thigh) was injured in Game 6 and insists he is fine for the series finale.
3. Milwaukee C John Henson (back) will likely miss his fifth straight game.
PREDICTION: Celtics 115, Bucks 113
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ATS Trends
Milwaukee
Bucks are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS win.
Bucks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Bucks are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 vs. Eastern Conference.
Bucks are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 vs. NBA Atlantic.
Bucks are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Bucks are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Bucks are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 Conference Quarterfinals games.
Bucks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
Bucks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.
Bucks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Bucks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games.
Bucks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Boston
Celtics are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.
Celtics are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.
Celtics are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Celtics are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS loss.
Celtics are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss.
Celtics are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 Conference Quarterfinals games.
Celtics are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. NBA Central.
Celtics are 39-15 ATS in their last 54 Saturday games.
Celtics are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Celtics are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. Eastern Conference.
Celtics are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games playing on 1 days rest.
Celtics are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
OU Trends
Milwaukee
Over is 4-0 in Bucks last 4 Saturday games.
Over is 7-1 in Bucks last 8 road games.
Over is 6-1 in Bucks last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Over is 6-1 in Bucks last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Over is 11-2 in Bucks last 13 vs. NBA Atlantic.
Over is 5-1 in Bucks last 6 games following a ATS win.
Over is 13-3 in Bucks last 16 vs. Eastern Conference.
Over is 4-1 in Bucks last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.
Over is 14-4 in Bucks last 18 games playing on 1 days rest.
Over is 7-2 in Bucks last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Over is 20-6 in Bucks last 26 overall.
Over is 9-3 in Bucks last 12 games following a straight up win.
Over is 6-2 in Bucks last 8 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Boston
Over is 4-0 in Celtics last 4 games following a ATS loss.
Over is 9-1 in Celtics last 10 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.
Over is 6-1 in Celtics last 7 home games.
Over is 14-3 in Celtics last 17 Saturday games.
Over is 8-2 in Celtics last 10 overall.
Over is 4-1 in Celtics last 5 games following a straight up loss.
Over is 8-2 in Celtics last 10 vs. Eastern Conference.
Over is 6-2 in Celtics last 8 vs. NBA Central.
Over is 6-2-1 in Celtics last 9 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Over is 39-15-1 in Celtics last 55 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Over is 5-2 in Celtics last 7 games playing on 1 days rest.
Head to Head
Over is 10-2-1 in the last 13 meetings in Boston.
Favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
Home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.
Bucks are 2-7 ATS in the last 9 meetings.
Bucks are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Boston.
Preview: Pelicans at Warriors
Gracenote
Apr 27, 2018
The New Orleans Pelicans were surprisingly dominant in sweeping the third-seeded Portland Trail Blazers in the first round of the playoffs, but a much bigger challenge looms. The Pelicans will try to get an early advantage when they visit the defending NBA champion Golden State Warriors in Game 1 of the Western Conference semifinals on Saturday.
New Orleans superstar Anthony Davis averaged 33 points on 57.6 percent shooting and 11.8 rebounds in the four-game sweep of Portland, and the team is not intimidated by facing the defending champs. "Our guys have a hunger and they see an opportunity here and I think we'll play at our highest level and compete like crazy, and then whatever happens from that we're willing to accept," Pelicans coach Alvin Gentry, who was an assistant on Golden State's staff during its 2015 championship run, told The Undefeated. "I just say we just got to be able to compete to the point where we give ourselves an opportunity to win." The Warriors knocked out the San Antonio Spurs in five games in the first round without star point guard Stephen Curry (knee), who is practicing with the team but remains a question mark for Game 1. "He’s questionable," Golden State coach Steve Kerr told reporters of Curry. "A big part of (whether Curry will play) is how he (looks Saturday) after a night’s rest. It’s the first time he’s scrimmaged in about five or six weeks. It’s not as simple as he feels good, let's put him out there. It's more about, give him a few days and see how he responds."
TV: 10:30 p.m. ET, TNT
ABOUT THE PELICANS: Davis is the unquestioned leader of the team, but guards Jrue Holiday and Rajon Rondo and power forward Nikola Mirotic are keys to an offense that is running at high speed. Holiday averaged 27.8 points on 56.8 percent shooting against the Trail Blazers while Rondo averaged 13.3 assists. "The unselfishness," Rondo told the team's website, when asked which area the Pelicans have shown the most growth this season. "I think we’re rooting for the next man beside us. Early in the season, I couldn’t really say that for this team. But now, it seems like guys are happy for one another, genuinely. Regardless of whether guys are playing bad or playing great, when we come in that locker room, if we got a ‘W’, everyone has the same mindset, the same joy for each other."
ABOUT THE WARRIORS: Curry sat out the last 15 games with a knee sprain and is itching to get back on the floor. "I'm getting there, for sure," Curry told reporters. "I've done a lot in the last two weeks, especially on my feet moving, getting back to movements that I expect to do in the games and try to build that tolerance and intensity. My knee feels pretty good. I don't have any pain with doing the things that I've been doing." Kevin Durant averaged 28.2 points in the first round to help cover some of Curry's lost scoring while shooting guard Klay Thompson averaged 22.6 points and shot 51.6 percent from 3-point range.
BUZZER BEATERS
1. Mirotic averaged 18.3 points on 57.1 percent shooting against Portland.
2. Warriors PF Draymond Green averaged 11.2 rebounds in the first round but shot 35.7 percent from the floor.
3. Golden State swept New Orleans in the first round of the playoffs in 2015 and took three of four meetings during the regular season.
PREDICTION: Warriors 120, Pelicans 115
__________________
ATS Trends
New Orleans
Pelicans are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
Pelicans are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Pelicans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Pelicans are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 vs. NBA Pacific.
Pelicans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Pelicans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Saturday games.
Pelicans are 22-6 ATS in their last 28 games following a ATS win.
Pelicans are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games following a straight up win.
Pelicans are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 vs. Western Conference.
Pelicans are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
Pelicans are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games overall.
Pelicans are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Pelicans are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Pelicans are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
Pelicans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Conference Semifinals games.
Golden State
Warriors are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Saturday games.
Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
Warriors are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
Warriors are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Warriors are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
Warriors are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Warriors are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games.
Warriors are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
Warriors are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games following a straight up win.
OU Trends
New Orleans
Under is 4-0 in Pelicans last 4 Conference Semifinals games.
Under is 6-1 in Pelicans last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Under is 6-1 in Pelicans last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Under is 5-1 in Pelicans last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Over is 5-1 in Pelicans last 6 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 7-2 in Pelicans last 9 road games.
Over is 7-2 in Pelicans last 9 vs. NBA Pacific.
Over is 7-2 in Pelicans last 9 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Over is 6-2 in Pelicans last 8 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
Over is 5-2 in Pelicans last 7 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
Golden State
Under is 5-1 in Warriors last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Over is 4-1-1 in Warriors last 6 home games.
Under is 4-1-1 in Warriors last 6 games following a ATS loss.
Over is 5-2 in Warriors last 7 Conference Semifinals games.
Under is 14-6 in Warriors last 20 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 11-5 in Warriors last 16 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
Head to Head
Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Golden State.
Over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.
NBA
Long Sheet
Saturday, April 28
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NEW ORLEANS (52 - 34) at GOLDEN STATE (62 - 25) - 4/28/2018, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GOLDEN STATE is 132-97 ATS (+25.3 Units) in April games since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 59-37 ATS (+18.3 Units) in all playoff games since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 61-35 ATS (+22.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
NEW ORLEANS is 49-36 ATS (+9.4 Units) in all games this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 28-15 ATS (+11.5 Units) in road games this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in April games this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in the second half of the season this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games against Pacific division opponents this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 23-14 ATS (+7.6 Units) after scoring 115 points or more this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 36-48 ATS (-16.8 Units) in all games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 35-43 ATS (-12.3 Units) as a favorite this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 17-29 ATS (-14.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 6-5 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 10-1 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
8 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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MILWAUKEE (47 - 41) at BOSTON (58 - 30) - 4/28/2018, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 37-46 ATS (-13.6 Units) in all games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 15-24 ATS (-11.4 Units) in the second half of the season this season.
MILWAUKEE is 153-192 ATS (-58.2 Units) on Saturday games since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 134-171 ATS (-54.1 Units) after a win by 10 points or more since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 19-29 ATS (-12.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
MILWAUKEE is 9-18 ATS (-10.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
BOSTON is 52-32 ATS (+16.8 Units) in all games this season.
BOSTON is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) on Saturday games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 19-5 ATS (+13.5 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
BOSTON is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 28-16 ATS (+10.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
BOSTON is 28-18 ATS (+8.2 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
BOSTON is 31-17 ATS (+12.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
MILWAUKEE is 135-101 ATS (+23.9 Units) in road games against Atlantic division opponents since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 11-6 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 10-7 straight up against MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
11 of 16 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
NBA
Saturday, April 28
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Trend Report
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Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 19 of Milwaukee's last 23 games
Milwaukee is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Milwaukee is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Milwaukee's last 8 games on the road
Milwaukee is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Boston
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Milwaukee's last 8 games when playing Boston
Milwaukee is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Boston
Milwaukee is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Boston
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 5 games when playing on the road against Boston
Boston Celtics
Boston is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Boston's last 10 games
Boston is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Boston is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Boston's last 7 games at home
Boston is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Boston's last 8 games when playing Milwaukee
Boston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
Boston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
New Orleans Pelicans
New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Orleans's last 9 games
New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of New Orleans's last 9 games on the road
New Orleans is 1-14 SU in its last 15 games when playing Golden State
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing Golden State
New Orleans is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Golden State
New Orleans is 1-12 SU in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Golden State
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing on the road against Golden State
Golden State Warriors
Golden State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Golden State's last 6 games
Golden State is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Golden State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Golden State's last 6 games at home
Golden State is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Golden State's last 5 games when playing New Orleans
Golden State is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against New Orleans
Golden State is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Golden State's last 5 games when playing at home against New Orleans