Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Thursday 12/13/18
Inside the Paint - Thursday
December 12, 2018
By Chris David
Game of the Night (TNT, 8:05 p.m. ET)
L.A. Lakers (17-10 SU, 11-15-1 ATS) at Houston (12-14 SU, 10-16 ATS)
Despite a rough start to the season, oddsmakers are still respecting the Houston Rockets in this primetime matchup against the Los Angeles Lakers. BookMaker.eu sent out the Rockets -5 ½ with a total of 221 ½. VegasInsider.com NBA expert Tony Mejia provided his quick thoughts on the Western Conference matchup.
“While Houston faces an uphill climb after falling to the back of the pack in the loaded Western Conference, L.A. takes its act on the road for a four-game set that will open against James Harden, Chris Paul and their gang of underachievers. The Lakers have managed to overcome losing talented young wing Brandon Ingram and haven’t had Rajon Rondo back in the mix for weeks, but that hasn’t stopped them from winning six of seven since Nov. 29,” said Mejia.
“James has flawlessly played closer while ensuring that young co-stars Kyle Kuzma and Lonzo Ball stay in rhythm throughout. Making sure both get going on the road will be his primary objective early on, but what we’re about to see what killer instinct LeBron has brought to Lakers, especially since a win over the slumping Rockets would increase the gap between the teams to six games if they’re able to get their road swing off to a strong start. Stops in Charlotte, Washington and Brooklyn will follow after that, so L.A. can go on a run that may see it in first place ahead of the Warriors when the teams meet for the first time on Christmas Day. The Lakers are just 6-6 on the road and have won only once away from Staples Center since Nov. 23, so the first quarter of this contest should be telling.”
As Mejia mentioned, the Golden State matchup is less than two weeks away and I’m curious to see how many points the Lakers will catch in that game. The reason for my interest is because L.A. has only been an underdogs six times this season and it’s gone 3-3 both SU and ATS, four of the instances (2-2) coming on the road. This is the most points that they’ve received this season and the spread hasn’t matter in any of the first six outcomes so perhaps a money-line (+188) on the Lakers may intrigue you more if you're leaning to L.A.
Houston just snapped a three-game losing skid on Tuesday with a 111-104 win over Portland as a 6 ½-point home favorite but a 6-5 SU and 5-6 ATS record at the Toyota Center is still shaky, especially for a team that went 34-7 at home in last year’s regular season.
This year’s squad has plenty of new pieces and Mejia noted how the team is still trying to find the chemistry that helped them dominate their way to the No. 1 seed in the West last year.
He added, “Houston head coach Mike D’Antoni made a switch to his lineup, placing top sixth man Eric Gordon in his first five to ensure another shooter is out there taking advantage when Harden or Paul is double-teamed. That tweak didn’t yield early results since the Rockets trailed the Blazers 19-10 when Paul was replaced by James Ennis midway through the opening quarter in Tuesday’s eventual 111-104 Rockets win, but we should see him stay in the lineup anyway since Ennis is out at least a week after straining his hamstring. Gerald Green and rookie Danuel House are expected to get more minutes off the bench as a result.”
In the first meeting between the pair on Oct. 20 from the Staples Center, the Rockets captured a 124-115 road win over the Lakers as 3 ½-point favorites. The game was marred with a late scuffle between Chris Paul, Rajon Rondo and Brandon Ingram. No drama should be expected tonight, on the court at least, since Rondo and Ingram are both nursing injuries. Including that victory, Houston has won eight of the last 10 against the Lakers while going 6-4 ATS. Total bettors should note that the ‘over’ is on an 8-2 run in this series.
Along with the big matchup tonight from Houston, we have three other games on Thursday and below is my quick handicap.
L.A. Clippers (17-10 SU, 11-15-1 ATS) at San Antonio (14-14 SU, 14-13-1 ATS)
These teams met just under a month ago in Los Angeles and the Clippers captured a 116-111 win but the Spurs managed to cash as six-point road underdogs. Since that loss, San Antonio has gone 7-7 while Los Angeles has posted an 8-5 record but it limps into this game with losses in three of its last four.
San Antonio opened as a short favorite (-2) for the rematch and I thought the number should be a little bit higher knowing the Spurs have been much stronger at home (10-4 SU, 9-5 ATS). Plus, the Clippers are starting to show some flaws and they just lost the best bench player in the NBA in Lou Williams (hamstring) for at least a couple weeks. The Spurs have also shown more fight defensively at home (106.6 PPG) compared to their awful road numbers (118.1 PPG) and the Clippers (115.3 PPG) have shown less fight on the road as well.
Last season, the Spurs won and covered both games at the AT&T Center against the Clippers with the margins coming by 18 and 13 points. Since getting run by Houston (136-105) on Nov. 30, San Antonio has won and covered all four of its home games in December and every win was by double digits.
Chicago (6-22 SU, 13-15 ATS) vs. Orlando (12-15 SU, 15-12 ATS) - (Mexico City, Mexico)
The NBA Global Games will head to Mexico for this matchup and remain in the country for another game on Saturday when the Magic host the Jazz. Orlando opened as a four-point favorite and the early action moved the number up to 4 ½ at most books. It’s a tough game to bet due to the venue and even though the Magic are the more talented and deeper team, they’re not in great form (0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS) recently.
However, Chicago is a mess and they’re coming off back-to-back blowout losses at home by 56 and 19 points. They actually played well for the first 24 minutes in Monday’s loss to Sacramento (108-99) but they couldn’t buy a bucket in the second-half as they were outscored 63-33. The Bulls are ranked last in scoring offense (101.8 PPG) and maybe a change of scenery will change things up. It’s been reported that the Bulls are the second most popular team in Mexico behind the Lakers, largely due to many of the fans falling in love with the team during the Michael Jordan championship era.
This will be the first meeting between the pair this season but the recent encounters have leaned heavily to Orlando, who is 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in the last eight games against the Bulls.The total on this game opened 207 ½ and jumped to 209 ½ quickly. The high altitude could play a factor and looking back at the past six games played in Mexico, we’ve seen an average combined scored of 207.3 PPG.
Dallas (15-11 SU, 17-9 ATS) at Phoenix (4-24 SU, 9-19 ATS)
Even though the Mavericks have been the best team for bettors this season, most of their damage has come at home (13-2 SU, 12-3 ATS) although they got squeezed late on Wednesday in a 114-107 win over Atlanta as a 10-point favorite. On the road, the Mavericks have been awful (2-9 SU, 5-6 ATS) and a lot of the covers have come in the role of an underdog. As a road favorite, Dallas is 1-2 and one of the losses came on opening night at Phoenix (121-100).
A lot has changed for the Suns since then and they’re still not expected to have Devin Booker (hamstring) available. Phoenix (+9 ½) did show some fight on Monday in a 123-119 overtime loss at home to the Clippers but that setback dropped them to 3-11 SU and 6-8 ATS at Talking Stick Resort Arena this season. Including the loss to L.A. and Tuesday’s 111-86 defeat to the Spurs on no rest, the Suns have dropped 10 straight games (1-9 ATS) headed into this matchup and the only cover during this skid came in the aforementioned contest to the Clippers.
If you’re looking for another angle to pass the game altogether or fade Dallas, you can point to its 0-3 record (1-2 ATS) when playing on no rest this season. Make a note that the Mavs defense has allowed 120.6 PPG in those games, which has led to a perfect 3-0 ‘over’ mark.
Thursday’s NBA
Lakers won six of their last seven games; they’re 3-5 as AU. 16 of their last 20 games stayed under the total. Rockets lost seven of their last ten games, are 4-7 as HF. Houston’s last four games stayed under the total. Lakers lost eight of last ten games with Houston but covered three of last four; LA is 2-3 vs spread in its last five visits here. Eight of last ten series games went over.
Clippers lost four of their last six games; they’re 3-6 as AU this season. Six of their last nine road games went over. San Antonio won/covered its last three games; they’re 7-4 as HF this season. 12 of their last 16 games went over the total. Home side won last four Clipper-Spur games; LA is 2-3 vs spread in its last five visits to the Alamo. Last four series games went over.
Chicago lost nine of its last ten games; they’re 2-5 vs spread in last seven road games. Three of their last four games stayed under. Magic lost its last three games; they’re 1-3 as HF this season. Four of their last five games stayed under the total. Bulls won their last five games with Orlando; they covered three of last four visits to the Magic Kingdom. Last ten series games stayed under total.
Mavericks won 12 of their last 15 games; they’re 1-2 as AF this season. Six of their last seven games stayed under the total. Phoenix lost its last ten games; they’re 1-5 vs spread in last six home games. Seven of last nine series games stayed under. Suns won their last six games with Dallas; under is 6-4 in last ten series games. Mavericks are 1-3 vs spread in their last four visits to the desert.
NBA
Long Sheet
Thursday, December 13
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LA LAKERS (17 - 10) at HOUSTON (12 - 14) - 12/13/2018, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 111-145 ATS (-48.5 Units) in home games against Pacific division opponents since 1996.
HOUSTON is 6-14 ATS (-9.4 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 4-4 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 6-2 straight up against LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
6 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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LA CLIPPERS (17 - 10) at SAN ANTONIO (14 - 14) - 12/13/2018, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CLIPPERS are 227-281 ATS (-82.1 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 1061-932 ATS (+35.8 Units) in all games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 841-718 ATS (+51.2 Units) as a favorite since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 36-20 ATS (+14.0 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) in home games in December games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in home games in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 217-165 ATS (+35.5 Units) in home games after a win by 10 points or more since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 301-246 ATS (+30.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1996.
LA CLIPPERS are 36-23 ATS (+10.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 4-4 against the spread versus LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
LA CLIPPERS is 5-3 straight up against SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
6 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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CHICAGO (6 - 22) vs. ORLANDO (12 - 15) - 12/13/2018, 9:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in December games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) against Southeast division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
ORLANDO is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in December games over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 120-157 ATS (-52.7 Units) when playing with 2 days rest since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 6-2 against the spread versus ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 7-1 straight up against ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
8 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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DALLAS (15 - 11) at PHOENIX (4 - 24) - 12/13/2018, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 508-430 ATS (+35.0 Units) in road games since 1996.
DALLAS is 83-53 ATS (+24.7 Units) in road games in December games since 1996.
DALLAS is 188-142 ATS (+31.8 Units) in road games after a non-conference game since 1996.
PHOENIX is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) in all games this season.
PHOENIX is 9-18 ATS (-10.8 Units) as an underdog this season.
PHOENIX is 20-34 ATS (-17.4 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) in the first half of the season this season.
PHOENIX is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
PHOENIX is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
PHOENIX is 7-1 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
PHOENIX is 7-1 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NBA
Thursday, December 13
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Trend Report
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Los Angeles Lakers
LA Lakers is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
LA Lakers is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of LA Lakers's last 12 games
LA Lakers is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Lakers's last 5 games on the road
LA Lakers is 5-13 ATS in its last 18 games when playing Houston
LA Lakers is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Houston
The total has gone OVER in 8 of LA Lakers's last 10 games when playing Houston
LA Lakers is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games when playing on the road against Houston
LA Lakers is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Houston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Lakers's last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston
Houston Rockets
Houston is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games
Houston is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Houston's last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games
Houston is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Houston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games at home
Houston is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 games when playing LA Lakers
Houston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing LA Lakers
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Houston's last 10 games when playing LA Lakers
Houston is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 games when playing at home against LA Lakers
Houston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against LA Lakers
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games when playing at home against LA Lakers
Los Angeles Clippers
LA Clippers is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
LA Clippers is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games
LA Clippers is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 11 of LA Clippers's last 16 games
LA Clippers is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of LA Clippers's last 9 games on the road
LA Clippers is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing San Antonio
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Clippers's last 5 games when playing San Antonio
LA Clippers is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
LA Clippers is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
The total has gone OVER in 17 of LA Clippers's last 25 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
San Antonio Spurs
San Antonio is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
San Antonio is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 10 of San Antonio's last 13 games
San Antonio is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
San Antonio is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Antonio's last 6 games at home
San Antonio is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing LA Clippers
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Antonio's last 5 games when playing LA Clippers
San Antonio is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against LA Clippers
San Antonio is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games when playing at home against LA Clippers
The total has gone OVER in 17 of San Antonio's last 25 games when playing at home against LA Clippers
Chicago Bulls
Chicago is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games
Chicago is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 7 games
Chicago is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Chicago is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games on the road
Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Orlando
Chicago is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Orlando
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing Orlando
Chicago is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Orlando
Chicago is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against Orlando
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing on the road against Orlando
Orlando Magic
Orlando is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games
Orlando is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Orlando's last 5 games
Orlando is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Orlando's last 15 games at home
Orlando is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
Orlando is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Orlando's last 5 games when playing Chicago
Orlando is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Chicago
Orlando is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Orlando's last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago
Dallas Mavericks
Dallas is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games
Dallas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games
Dallas is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Dallas is 2-14 SU in its last 16 games on the road
Dallas is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Phoenix
Dallas is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Phoenix
Dallas is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Phoenix
Dallas is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Phoenix
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing on the road against Phoenix
Phoenix Suns
Phoenix is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games
Phoenix is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Phoenix's last 9 games
Phoenix is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Phoenix is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Phoenix's last 12 games at home
Phoenix is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
Phoenix is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
Phoenix is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Dallas
Phoenix is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Phoenix's last 5 games when playing at home against Dallas
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