Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Thursday 9/17/20
NBA public betting, line movement September 17
Patrick Everson
The Heat’s impressive playoff work aside, DraftKings opened Game 2 at Celtics -2 and moved to -2.5 early Wednesday. Tipoff is at 7 p.m. ET Thursday.
NBA betting odds are back on the board after a one-day respite, with Game 2 of the Eastern Conference finals on the Thursday playoff schedule. The red-hot Miami Heat aim to take a 2-0 lead in their best-of-7 series against the Boston Celtics.
DraftKings Sportsbook provided insights on NBA opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Thursday’s matchup.
NBA line movement
Miami is a scorching 9-1 SU and ATS in the NBA playoffs, including a 117-114 overtime victory against Boston in Game 1 on Tuesday. The Heat’s impressive playoff work aside, DraftKings opened Game 2 at Celtics -2 and moved to -2.5 early Wednesday. Tipoff is at 7 p.m. ET Thursday.
DraftKings opened the total at 208 and moved to 208.5 early Wednesday.
NBA public betting
Ticket count at DraftKings is running almost even, with a slight lean toward the Celtics at 52 percent. But the money is a little more impressed by the Heat’s Game 1 victory, with Miami getting 61 percent of point-spread cash as of Wednesday afternoon.
The public is also hitting the Over early, at 78 percent of tickets and 76 percent of money. Moneyline wagering has two-way action, with 54 percent of bets on Miami and 55 percent of money on Boston.
701MIAMI -702 BOSTON
BOSTON is 52-29 ATS (20.1 Units) versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game in the last 3 seasons.
NBA
Dunkel
Thursday, September 17
Miami @ Boston
Game 701-702
September 17, 2020 @ 7:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Miami
123.560
Boston
128.555
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Boston
by 5
205
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boston
by 2
209 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Boston
(-2); Under
NBA
Long Sheet
Thursday, September 17
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MIAMI (53 - 30) vs. BOSTON (56 - 28) - 9/17/2020, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 8-17 ATS (-10.7 Units) in road games after scoring 115 points or more this season.
BOSTON is 48-32 ATS (+12.8 Units) in all games this season.
BOSTON is 158-116 ATS (+30.4 Units) in road games revenging a home loss vs opponent since 1996.
BOSTON is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
BOSTON is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games off a upset loss as a favorite this season.
BOSTON is 29-14 ATS (+13.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
BOSTON is 39-28 ATS (+8.2 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
BOSTON is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
BOSTON is 37-27 ATS (+7.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
BOSTON is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
MIAMI is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in all playoff games this season.
MIAMI is 44-28 ATS (+13.2 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 7-4 against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 6-5 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NBA
Thursday, September 17
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Trend Report
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Miami @ Boston
Miami
Miami is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Boston's last 10 games
Boston is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Miami
Game 2 Odds: Heat vs. Celtics
Michael Crosson
The Eastern Conference Finals will continue Thursday from the NBA Bubble in Orlando, Florida and the Boston Celtics will look to rebound after dropping an overtime setback to the Miami Heat in Game 1 on Tuesday.
Betting Resources
Matchup: Eastern Conference Finals Game 2
Series: Miami Heat lead 1-0
Venue: ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex
Location: Orlando, Florida
Date: Thursday, Sept. 17, 2020
Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Miami Heat rookie Tyler Herro almost recorded a triple-double in Game 1, finishing with 12 points, 11 rebounds and nine assists. (AP)
Line Movements
The red-hot Miami Heat pulled off the 117-114 overtime upset in Game 1, but that has not swayed the oddsmakers prior to the second contest of this series as the Celtics still head into Game 2 as two and a half-point favorites, already trailing Miami 1-0.
It has been a bad month to be an ‘over’ bettor in the 2020 NBA Playoffs so far, as the ‘under’ has cashed in 19 out of 26 post-season games inside the bubble.
Game 1 between the Celtics and Heat was not one of those games though, as these teams combined for 212 points in regulation – securing ‘over 209’ before they tacked on almost 20 more in the OT stanza. The line for Thursday night’s tilt fallen a little bit though, siting at a tempting line of OU 208.5.
Spread: Boston -2.5
Money-Line: Boston -140, Miami +120
Total: 208.5
Updated Series Price: Miami -150, Boston +130
Game 1 Recap
It sure is a shame that there are no fans present to witness these grueling playoff battles in the bubble, because there is no doubt Boston’s TD Garden would have been rocking for Game 1 on Tuesday night.
It could have even been just what some of the Celtics’ young stars needed to push them over their competitive edge in overtime during their first battle with Miami in these Eastern Conference Finals.
No complaints from Brad Stevens’ corner though as Jayson Tatum and Marcus Smart combined for 56 points on 45% shooting in their 2020 ECF debuts – putting their team in a reasonable position to extend/win the game by closing the gap to a two-point differential in OT with just 12 ticks remaining on the clock.
Tatum had his game-tying dunk attempt emphatically denied at the rim by Bam Adebayo though, earning Erik Spoelstra’s team its first victory in an Eastern Conference Finals matchup since the LeBron James years (2014).
Game 1 Betting Results
Outcome: Heat 117 Celtics 114 (OT)
Game: Heat Win, Heat Cover (+2), Over 2019
First Quarter: Celtics Win (26-18), Celtics Cover (-0.5), Under 54.5
First-Half: Tied (55-55), Heat Cover (+0.5), Over 108
Second-Half: Heat Win (62-59), Heat Cover (+1.5), Over 103.5
Heat Betting Outlook
Inside the Stats
Overall: 12-6 SU, 12-6 ATS, 8-9-1 O/U
Bubble: 9-1 SU, 9-1 ATS, 4-6 O/U
Miami came out of the gates flat and it looked like the Celtics might run away with the opening game of this series in the early-goings when they jumped out to a 26-18 first quarter lead. However, that shifted rather quickly as the Heat lit up the scoreboard in the second stanza for 37 points on 68.2 percent shooting to close out the half.
The Heat managed to post another insane offensive column of basketball in the fourth quarter of Game 1, racking up 35 points on 71.4 percent shooting to force OT in the final stanza of the contest.
The Heat needed every bit of the 72 points they dropped in the second and fourth quarters to force overtime in series opener, PLUS and insane block from Adebayo at the buzzer to seal the deal.
Not to rain on Miami’s parade here, but they cannot afford to ride the roller coaster in this series like they did in Game 1. The Heat need to string together four good quarters of basketball in Game 2 if they want to take a two-game advantage over a Boston team that has been devastatingly consistent this season. And somebody tell Duncan Robinson to stay out of foul trouble, holy cow.
Celtics Betting Outlook
Inside the Stats
Overall: 13-6 SU, 11-7-1 ATS, 6-11-2 O/U
Bubble: 8-4 SU, 8-4 ATS, 3-9 O/U
No need to panic if you are a Celtics series bettor following their loss on Tuesday night, but if Boston fails to get over the hump again in Game 2 then it might be time to admit that Jimmy Butler and company are just on a magical run and may need to avoid betting against them at all costs for the near future.
I do not believe that is the kind of situation we are dealing with here though, as the heroes in Game 1 for Miami were Goran Dragic and Jae Crowder who went for a combined 51 points in the contest on 60% shooting.
The Dragic-Crowder-Butler trio shot a combined 10 of 18 from downtown in the contest, and I have a tough time believing they are going to be able to replicate those numbers over the course of a series.
I think Boston ultimately comes out on top in this series, but there is no doubt the Heat will make me eat those words if their role-players keep burying 3’s at a 55% clip the rest of the way.
Key Injuries
Miami
PF Chris Silva: Pelvis - Out
Boston
SG Javonte Green: Knee - Game Time Decision
SF Gordon Hayward: Ankle - Game Time Decision
Celtics forward, Gordon Hayward, has been upgraded to a “game-time decision” for Boston’s Game 2 tilt with the Heat on Thursday night.
The Butler product has not played since injuring his ankle in Game 1 of their opening round playoff series with the 76ers – his return should add some much needed size and scoring depth to Celtic rotation moving forward in this series.