Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Tuesday 1/15/19
Timberwolves won/covered four of their last five games; they’re 4-2 vs spread in last six road games. 11 of their last 14 games went over the total. Philly won five of its last seven games; they are 3-4 vs spread in last seven home games. Seven of their last eight games went over. 76ers won six of last eight games with Minnesota; over is 3-1 in last four series games played here. Wolves covered once in their last five visits here.
Phoenix lost seven of its last nine game, but covered last three; they covered their last six road games. Suns’ last three games stayed under total. Indiana won eight of its last ten games; they’re 5-3 vs spread in last eight home games. Pacers’ last eight games went over. Pacers won six of last seven games with Phoenix (5-2 vs spread); five of last six series games stayed under. Suns are 2-2 vs spread in last four visits to Indiana.
Thunder lost three of last four games; they’re 5-3 vs spread in last eight road games. OKC’s last three games went over the total. Atlanta lost six of its last eight games; they’re 4-8-1 vs spread in last 13 home games. Under is 4-2 in their last six home games. Oklahoma City won five of last six games with the Hawks; they’re 2-2 vs spread in last four visits to Atlanta. Last four series games went over the total.
Heat won 10 of its last 14 games; they’re 4-1 vs spread in last five road games. Eight of their last ten games went over. Milwaukee won eight of its last ten games; they’re 4-2 vs spread in last six road games. Three of their last four games stayed under. Miami won/covered its last six games with the Bucks; Heat is 3-2 vs spread in its last five visits to Milwaukee. Four of last five series games stayed under.
Warriors won six of their last seven games; they’re 2-4 vs spread in last six road games. Five of their last six games went over. Denver won eight of its last ten games; they’re 9-3 vs spread in last dozen home games. Three of their last four games stayed under. Nuggets won four of last six games with Golden State; three of last four series games stayed under the total. Warriors are 2-4 vs spread in last six visits to Denver.
Bulls lost their last six games (2-4 vs spread); they’re 5-3 vs spread in last eight road games. Last five Chicago games went over total. Lakers lost six of their last nine games; they’re 2-5 vs spread in last seven home games. Lakers’ last four games stayed under. Lakers won/covered their last three games with Chicago (under 3-0). Bulls are 3-2 vs spread in their last five series games played here.
January 15, 2019
By Chris David
(SU – Straight Up, ATS – Against the Spread)
Game of the Night - Golden State (29-14 SU, 18-25 ATS) at Denver (29-13 SU, 23-19 ATS)
All eyes will be on the Pepsi Center this Tuesday as two-time defending champion Golden State pays a visit to Denver. The Nuggets currently owns the best record in the Western Conference and most of their success has come at home, where head coach Mike Malone’s team has gone 18-3 SU and 14-7 ATS.
Entering this matchup, the Nuggets have won 12 straight at home and they’ve helped bettors with a solid 9-3 record versus the spread over that span. Despite the hot run, oddsmakers at BookMaker.eu opened Golden State as a 1 ½-point road favorite.
VegasInsider.com NBA expert and writer Tony Mejia weighed in on the heavyweight matchup in the West. He said, “The Nuggets continue to impose their will, coming off an impressive Sunday night victory over Portland that kept them ahead of the Warriors entering this showdown. It’s definitely not lost on Golden State that it doesn’t typically have to look up at anyone in this league, so seeing Denver ahead in the standings will drive the Dubs in this one. We’ll see if the Nuggets reach the level of respected adversary that Houston achieved last season, having already defeated the Warriors early in the season. Houston served notice in the 2017-18 season opener and actually won the season series last year, eventually falling a win short of eliminating Golden State in the Western Conference finals.”
In the first regular season encounter on Oct. 21, Denver nipped Golden State 100-98 as a 4 ½-point home underdog. Just based on the point-spread, you can see the adjustment in the power ratings from the oddsmakers. This decision wasn’t easy on the eyes as neither Golden State (24%) or Denver (19%) could make any shots from 3-point land, plus the Nuggets missed 18 free throws (24-of-42) as well.
Mejia added, “The Nuggets will play through Nikola Jokic, so being home puts some pressure on them to pick up a win since the Warriors will add DeMarcus Cousins to the mix this weekend and will defend Denver differently in their meetings to come in March, April and beyond. With Paul Millsap, Gary Harris and Will Barton back, the Nuggets are deep and in a good rhythm. Golden State has been shaky and needed Stephen Curry’s heroics to get past Dallas on Sunday. I’d say the wrong team is favored in this matchup.”
The Warriors held off the Mavericks 119-114 for their fourth straight win but failed to cover as six-point road underdogs and that’s been a common theme this season for the champs. On the road, Steve Kerr’s squad has gone 12-8 SU and 8-12 ATS but they enter Tuesday on an 8-1 run in their last nine away games. The win over Dallas pushed Golden State to 20-2 against teams below .500, which is expected. However, the Warriors don’t have many quality wins and they own a losing record (9-12) against winning teams.
Meanwhile, Denver is 16-7 versus teams above .500 and that’s the best record in the NBA. Versus losing teams, the club has had letdowns (13-6) and we just witnessed one last Saturday at Phoenix (102-93). Including the aforementioned win over Golden State, the Nuggets are 2-0 both SU and ATS this season as home underdogs and the ‘under’ cashed in both those games as well.
The total on this game opened 228. The ‘over’ is 13-7 for Golden State on the road while Denver has seen the ‘under’ go 11-10 at home.
Brotherly Love?
Jimmy Butler will meet his former team for the first time on Tuesday as Philadelphia (28-16 SU, 20-24 ATS) clashes with Minnesota (21-22 SU, 23-20 ATS) at home. Since Butler was traded, the Timberwolves have gone 17-13 and are less than two games out of the eighth and final playoff spot in the West. For the 76ers, they’ve gone 20-10 and sit in fourth place of the Eastern Conference.
Mejia offered up his thoughts on the intrigue for Tuesday. “Jimmy Butler hasn’t been thrilled with how he’s been used in Philadelphia, but Joel Embiid balked at how much he was required to roam out to the perimeter to accommodate him and quickly won that power struggle. Butler views his role in the offense as a work in progress but often says he’s capable of impacting the game with his defense and hustle, which is why you can expect him to play a huge role against his former team,” said Mejia.
“While Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins have been much better since his departure, both are vulnerable to the fact he knows their tendencies and often got the better of them in practices, so the 76ers will be well-equipped to try and make this an unpleasant night for the Timberwolves. Although Minnesota won its first road test under Ryan Saunders, pulling an upset at Oklahoma City, this will be a far different test. It doesn’t help matters that Robert Covington won’t play since he quickly emerged as an emotional leader for his new team and would’ve been fired up since he wasn’t pleased Philly GM Elton Brand moved him or that he found out on social media five minutes before being notified by Brand. This game will require fire, and I don’t believe the Wolves can rely on Dario Saric to supply it.”
Philadelphia is listed as a six-point favorite for this game and the club hasn’t been in great form recently, going 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS to a trio of weaker foes (Wizards, Hawks, Knicks). The 76ers have been much better at home (18-4 SU, 12-10) but this line seems a little short, especially against a T-Wolves team that has struggled on the road (6-15 SU, 9-12 ATS).
Along with missing Covington, guards Jeff Teague and Derrick Rose are both 'questionable' for tonight.
Best of the Rest
Along with those matchups, Tuesday’s card has four other games as well.
Miami (21-20 SU, 23-18 ATS) at Milwaukee (30-12 SU, 24-17-1 ATS): The Bucks opened -8 ½ at a few offshore books on Tuesday and similar to the Nuggets and 76ers, they’ve owned teams at home this season (19-4 SU, 15-8 ATS). However, the Heat will be looking to win and cover its seventh straight encounter against Milwaukee. The pair met on Dec. 22 from South Florida and Miami captured a 94-87 win as a two-point home underdog. The Heat have played better on the road (10-8) this season and they’ve been one of the best teams to back at the betting counter (12-6).
Phoenix (11-33 SU, 20-24 ATS) at Indiana (28-14 SU, 21-20-1 ATS): No overnight line was posted due to the status of Suns guard Devin Booker but he’s expected to go. Phoenix (4-16 SU, 9-11 ATS) hasn’t been much of a test on the road but it’s playing with confidence lately, going 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS in its last three and that includes a 102-93 upset over Denver last Saturday. Indiana snapped out of a 0-5 ATS slump last Friday with a 121-106 win at New York last Friday and it will be rested for this game. The Pacers have won and covered four straight games in this series, which includes a 109-104 win at Phoenix on Nov. 27.
Oklahoma City (26-16 SU, 23-19 ATS) at Atlanta (13-30 SU, 19-24 ATS): The Thunder ran past the Hawks 124-109 on Nov. 30 as a 13-point home favorite and many would expect a repeat performance. What’s strange about the Hawks is that they’ve been more competitive for bettors on the road (13-12 ATS) than at home (6-12 ATS). OKC has gone 8-7 SU and 7-8 ATS as a road favorite this season.
Chicago (10-33 SU, 20-23 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (23-21 SU, 18-25-1 ATS): After watching the LeBron-less Lakers fall to the Cavaliers 101-95 as 10 ½-point home favorites on Sunday, the oddsmakers quickly made sure not to list them that high (-6 ½) against the Bulls. Since James went down with an injury, Los Angeles is 3-7. Making a case won’t be easy for Chicago, who has dropped seven straight games (3-4 ATS). The Bulls haven’t played much defense recently, allowing 123.2 PPG in their last five games and that’s produced a 5-0 ‘over’ run.
Top NBA Betting Trends of the Day 01/15/2019
Date 15th Jan 2019
Admir Aljic
NBA – TRENDS OF THE DAY
There are six games in the Association today including the Western Conference showdown between two top teams as the Golden State Warriors will visit the Denver Nuggets at Pepsi Center. Here are all need-to-know betting trends and notes for this matchup along with a couple of more to help you find the best wagers tonight.
Featured game: Golden State vs. Denver Nuggets
The Denver Nuggets (29-13; 23-19 ATS) are leading the Western Conference and are on a whopping 12-game winning streak on the home court following a 116-113 victory over the Portland Trail Blazers this past Sunday, but they opened as 1-point dogs on this one with the Warriors at -115 money line odds and total at 227.5 points. This will be their second head-to-head duel of the season as the Nuggets overcame the Warriors 100-98 as 4.5-point underdogs at home on October 21, 2018. Denver is 5-4 straight up and 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine meetings with the Warriors and is 4-2 straight up and ATS in the previous six H2H duels at Pepsi Center.
The Nuggets have won eight of their last ten outings, losing only at Houston and Phoenix during that span, but have covered the spread just four times in the process. However, during that 12-game winning streak at Pepsi Center, they’ve covered nine times, beating some tough teams such as Toronto, Oklahoma City, San Antonio, and the Los Angeles Clippers among the others. Nikola Jokic is leading the Nuggets, averaging 26.2 points, 11.4 rebounds, and 8.1 assists per game over his last ten appearances, tallying three triple-doubles in that stretch.
On the other side, the Golden State Warriors (29-14; 18-25 ATS) are on a four-game winning streak following a 119-114 win at the Dallas Mavericks last Sunday. They have won six of their last seven encounters, covering the spread four times in the process and averaging 127.8 points per contest over that seven-game span. The Warriors are 8-1 straight up and 5-4 ATS in their last nine games on the road, winning their previous four tilts away from home. Stephen Curry is leading the reigning champions in five games in January, averaging 33.4 points and 7.0 assists per contest.
Chicago Bulls vs. Los Angeles Lakers
The Los Angeles Lakers (23-21; 19-25 ATS) continue to struggle without injured LeBron James and are 3-7 straight up and 4-6 ATS in King James’ absence. They are on a two-game losing streak following a painful 101-95 home defeat to the Cleveland Cavaliers who are the worst team in the league at the moment. The Lakers are just 2-5 straight up and ATS in their last seven games at Staples Center and the under is 5-2 in that stretch. On the other side, the Chicago Bulls (10-33; 20-23 ATS) are riding a seven-game losing streak following a 110-102 defeat at the Utah Jazz and are 3-8 straight up and 6-5 ATS in their last 11 games overall, while the Bulls are 2-5 straight up and 4-3 ATS in their previous seven outings on the road and the over is 5-2 in that span.
The Lakers opened as 6.5-point favorites here with the total at 214.5 points and the Bulls at +225 money line odds, while 55.0% of wagers are on the hosts to cover. The Lakers are 4-3 straight up and ATS in their last seven meetings with the Bulls, winning the previous three in a row, while the Lakers are 3-3 straight up and ATS in the last six H2H duels at Staples Center. The Bulls are just 1-9 straight up and 3-7 ATS in their last ten games on the road versus the Western Conference, whilst the Lakers are only 4-6 straight up and 2-8 ATS in their previous ten encounters at home with the Eastern Conference.
Phoenix Suns vs. Indiana Pacers
The Indiana Pacers (28-14; 21-20-1 ATS) are coming off a 121-106 road win over the New York Knicks which was their eight consecutive matchup that was finished in the over. The Pacers are 8-2 straight up and 5-5 ATS in their last ten games overall and are 11-2 straight up and 7-6 ATS in their previous 13 showings on the home court. Also, the Pacers are 3-3 straight up and ATS in their six home games versus the Western Conference this season. On the other side, the Phoenix Suns (11-33; 20-24 ATS) are coming off a surprising 102-93 home win to the Denver Nuggets which was their second victory in the last three outings. The Suns are 3-7 straight up and 5-5 ATS in their last ten games overall and are 3-7 straight up and 6-4 ATS in the last ten games on the road.
The Pacers opened as massive 12-point favorites on this one with the total at 215.0 points. They are 6-1 straight up and 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Suns, while the Pacers are 3-3 straight up and 2-4 ATS in the previous six H2H duels on the home court. Also, the Pacers are 9-1 straight up and 4-6 ATS in their last ten outings when listed as double-digit favorites, whilst the Suns are 2-8 straight up and 5-5 ATS in their previous ten showings as double-digit underdogs and the under is 8-2 during that ten-game span.