Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Tuesday 2/12/19
Who's Hot and Who's Not
Week of February 11th
While last week's piece focused on college basketball out west, it turned out that the streaks I outlined saw plenty of the regression to the mean. Pac-12 road teams made me look foolish for pointing out their struggles a week ago.
From Wednesday through Sunday, Pac-12 road teams went 10-2 ATS (8-4 SU), highlighted by a pair of double-digit wins by Washington State through the state of Arizona when the Cougars were catching double-digit points in both contests. Oddly enough, one of the two teams to fall ATS was the 1st place Washington Huskies, as they suffered their first SU loss in conference play on Saturday against Arizona State.
Hopefully these trends that get highlighted in this piece every week start to hold serve much better, as this week we shift over to the pro basketball ranks and discuss what we could see from NBA teams as they get ready to head into the All-Star break.
Handicapping the NBA right before the All-Star break can come with unique challenges in terms of trying to figure out focus and motivation for guys. The season has been a grind already as the teams are coming up on 60 games played, and with the relatively new week long break for the entire league, vacation and family time starts to be on the forefront of guys minds.
So let's take a look back at what's happened in the NBA betting market the past few years during this week to see if we can use it to our advantage this week as these teams play their final game of the “first half.”
Who's Hot
NBA teams that are underdogs of 5 or more points in final game before the All-Star Break are 13-5 ATS the last two years – including 7-1 ATS last season
When you think about it, a run like this by bigger underdogs does have some correlation with motivational/focus levels being low for those teams expected to win. It's definitely not ideal to back a team that's expected to win easy in their final game by a big margin, simply because it's those teams that take the approach that they just have to show up to the court and they'll leave with a victory. That's never a spot I like to be in, regardless of the time of year.
Just last year alone, underdogs that were getting +5 or more in their final game before the break finished with a 7-1 ATS record, and while there were only two outright wins in that scenario – LA Clippers over Boston and Portland over Golden State – those two losses came from two teams that finished the year as two of the last four teams standing when the Conference Finals rolled around. So it's not like the league's best are immune from failure in this spot.
This year, we've got three teams playing their final game before the break on Tuesday – LA Lakers, San Antonio, Utah – and with the Jazz visiting Golden State out in Oakland, it's likely that we see them fit this exact scenario. On Thursday there aren't that strong of candidates, but Orlando and New Orleans could fit the bill as home underdogs against Charlotte and OKC respectively, so keep an eye on those point spreads when they come out. Although home teams bring up a whole different scenario which I'll get to in a minute.
The rest of the NBA wraps up their pre-All-Star schedule on Wednesday as there are 11 games on the betting board that day, and there will be some solid candidates that will fit this scenario as well. Oddly enough, Golden State is visiting Portland in the exact same situation as the two teams had a year ago – with Portland winning as +6.5 home dogs, and that is the latter end of a back-to-back for the Warriors. That's definitely a point spread to keep an eye on as well in terms of falling into this role.
Aside from the Blazers being a potentially backable side, Wednesday should also bring us dogs of 5+ with a handful of teams including Sacramento, Phoenix, Detroit and Washington all on the road. Which brings me to...
Who's Not
NBA teams at home in final game before All-Star break went 3-12 ATS last year
From a big picture standpoint, this ties in to bigger favorites struggling as well. For one, favorites tend to lay bigger numbers at home to begin with, and with the road teams still able to treat their final game in a more business-like fashion and not be “lulled to sleep” with family pulling at them the night before/day with off-court plans or vacation arrangements for the next week. It may have only been one year, but being in hostile territory was not that hostile at all at this point a year ago.
A 3-12 ATS record for home teams in their final game is just atrocious, and while that mark is just a one year sample, you can see situational reasoning behind it, and make cases for it to be a popular angle to take for this year and beyond.
Looking at Wednesday's NBA slate alone, chances are we will see plenty of big home favorites on the card as Denver, LA Clippers, Boston, and Toronto all host those four road teams I mentioned at the end of the “Hot” section, with other home sides like Indiana (vs Milwaukee), Cleveland (vs Brooklyn), Minnesota (vs Houston), and Portland (vs Golden State) all having tough matchups as it is, this year could be another rough one to back home teams before the All-Star break.
Now every situation is going to be different – for example Dallas hosts Miami at the end of a very long road trip for the Heat, which is going to be a tough spot for Miami regardless - and each game will force you to be selective in which games you believe this scenario will fit the best.
But when you can combine these two “Hot” and “Not” situations I've outlined into one game – a home team laying -5 or more – it might be worth your time to dig deeper into those games and build a case for taking the points with the road underdog.
NBA – TRENDS OF THE DAY
There are just five games in the Association this Tuesday, February 12, 2019, but we’ll see some quite interesting matchups including the Atlantic Division showdown between the Boston Celtics and the Philadelphia 76ers. Elsewhere, the Utah Jazz heads to Oakland to meet the reigning champions Golden State Warriors, while the Atlanta Hawks welcome LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers, so let’s take a look at the most important betting trends and notes to help you make the best wagers tonight whether you like to go with the trends or to bet against them.
Featured game: Boston Celtics vs. Philadelphia 76ers
The Boston Celtics (35-21; 27-28-1 ATS) and the Philadelphia 76ers (36-20; 27-29 ATS) will lock horns for the third time this season, and the Celtics lead the series after a couple of wins at TD Garden. The Sixers opened as 5.5-point favorites on this one at Wells Fargo Center with the total at 226.0 points and the Celtics at +200 money line odds, while 70.0% of wagers are on the Sixers to cover mostly because Kyrie Irving won’t suit up tonight. The Celtics are 9-2 straight up and ATS in their previous 11 meetings with the Sixers, while they are 8-2 straight up and 7-3 ATS in the last ten H2H duels at Wells Fargo Center.
The Celtics have dropped two games in a row, losing at home to the Lakers 129-128 and the Clippers 123-112 despite having some big leads on both these occasions. They are 7-3 straight up and 3-6-1 ATS in the last ten games overall, while the Celtics are just 4-6 straight up and 2-7-1 ATS in their previous ten showings on the road. Also, the Celtics are 2-3 straight up and 0-4-1 ATS in their last five road meetings with the Atlantic Division. Boston is the No. 5 seed in the East at the moment, just one game behind the Sixers who are sitting at the 4th spot.
The Sixers have won two games in a row since the trade deadline, beating the Nuggets 117-110 and the Lakers 143-120. They are 4-2 straight up and ATS in their last six games overall, while the Sixers are 5-2 straight up and 4-3 ATS in their previous seven outings on the home court. Also, the Sixers are 4-2 straight up and ATS in their last six home encounters with the Atlantic Division, and are 7-3 straight up and 5-5 ATS in their last ten games when listed as favorites.
Utah Jazz vs. Golden State Warriors
The Utah Jazz (32-24; 28-26-2 ATS) and the Golden State Warriors (40-15; 24-30-1 ATS) will meet each other for the third time this season, and the series is tied after a couple of games in Salt Lake City. The Warriors opened as 8.5-point favorites on this one at Oracle Arena with the total at 229.0 points and the Jazz at +325 money line odds. Interestingly, Utah is 4-1 straight up and 5-0 ATS in its last five meetings with the reigning champions, while the Warriors are 4-2 straight up and 2-4 ATS in the last six H2H duels in Oakland. The Warriors are topping the Western Conference at the moment three games ahead of Denver, while the Jazz is a No. 6 seed just two games ahead of Sacramento at the 9th spot.
The Jazz is coming off a 125-105 home victory over the San Antonio Spurs to record its second consecutive win. The Jazz is 6-2 straight up and 5-3 ATS in its last eight games overall, and is 5-3 straight up and ATS in its previous eight outings away from home. Utah is 8-1 straight up and 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine road meetings with the Pacific Division, and is 3-4 straight up and 3-3-1 ATS in its previous seven games when listed as an out-of-towner.
The Warriors are coming off a narrow 120-118 home win to the Miami Heat which was their fourth consecutive victory. They are 7-1 straight up and just 3-5 ATS in the last eight games overall, while the Warriors are 6-1 straight up and 3-3-1 ATS in their previous seven games on the home court. The Warriors are 4-2 straight up and 2-4 ATS in their six home encounters with the Northwest Division, and are 8-1 straight up and 4-5 ATS in their last nine showings when listed as favorites by eight or more points.
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Atlanta Hawks
The Los Angeles Lakers (28-28; 25-30-1 ATS) will finish their journey at the east coast with the matchup in Atlanta, meeting the Hawks (18-38; 24-32 ATS) for the second time this term. The Lakers have barely overcome the Hawks 107-106 as 11.5-point favorites in their first meeting at Staples Center. The Lakers opened as 5-point favorites on this one with the total at 236.0 points and the Hawks at +175 money line odds. The Hawks are 0-5 straight up and 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings with the Lakers, while they are 1-3 straight up and ATS in the last four H2H duels in Atlanta.
The Lakers are coming off a heavy 143-120 defeat at the Philadelphia 76ers, while they are 3-7 straight up and 5-5 ATS in the last ten games overall. The Lakers are 4-5 straight up and 6-3 ATS in their last nine games on the road, and are 1-4 straight up and ATS in their previous five road meetings with the Eastern Conference. Also, the Lakers are 4-3 straight up and 3-3-1 ATS in their last seven outings when listed as favorites. They are sitting at the 10th spot of the Western Conference standings 2.5 games behind the No. 8 seed Clippers.
The Hawks are riding a three-game losing streak following a 124-108 defeat to Charlotte this past Sunday, and all these three losses came at home. The Hawks are 2-5 straight up and ATS in their last seven games overall, and are 0-5 straight up and ATS in their previous five showings on the home court, while the Hawks are 3-3 straight up and ATS in their six home meetings with the Western Conference this season. Atlanta is far away from the playoff picture in the East, occupying the No. 12 seed eight games behind the Pistons.
By Chris David
L.A. Lakers (28-28 SU, 24-30-2 ATS) at Atlanta (18-38 SU, 24-32 ATS)
Is this a must-win spot for the Lakers? Los Angeles will conclude its six-game road trip and the first-half of its season on Tuesday at Atlanta and this line seems a little short (Lakers -5 ½) and could be a big trap for the betting public. The Lakers were recently listed as 2 ½-point road favorites at Indiana on Feb. 5 and I’ve got a hard time believing that the Pacers are only three points better than the Hawks.
And as much as I like Atlanta and its young core, the kids have been worse at home (8-16 SU, 7-17 ATS) this season and it’s dropped five in a row at State Farm Arena. Bettors should make a note that the point-spread hasn’t mattered when the team is listed as an underdog, which could have you leaning Hawks +180 on the money-line. Their last win at home came on Jan. 15, a 142-126 upset win over Oklahoma City as a 10-point underdog. If the Hawks drop their sixth straight game at home tonight, a bounce back is lined up with the Knicks visiting on Thursday before the break.
Los Angeles has gone 2-3 on its current road trip, which includes an embarrassing 143-120 loss at Philadelphia on Sunday. LeBron James has played in four of those five games as he sat out the loss at Golden State (115-101) on Feb. 2. You could argue that the Lakers could be 0-5 if it wasn’t for an overtime win against the Clippers and Rajon Rondo's buzzer-beater to defeat the Celtics. On the season, they’ve gone 6-7 SU and 5-8 ATS as road favorites.
This is the highest total (236) on the board for Tuesday. Los Angeles has watched the ‘over’ go 7-2 on the road in games against clubs from the East and Atlanta enters this game in terrible defensive form. The Hawks have surrendered 123.7 points per game in their last nine, which has led to a 7-2 ‘over’ mark.
Different faces on these teams but the Lakers have won five straight against the Hawks and they’ve gone 4-1 ATS during this span while the ‘over’ is 3-2. The non-cover came on Nov. 11 of this season as Los Angeles beat Atlanta 107-106 but failed to cover as an 11-point home favorite.
Orlando (25-32 SU, 30-26-1 ATS) at New Orleans (25-32 SU, 27-29-1 ATS)
The Pelicans are going to be a tough team to handicap the rest of the way due to the minute restriction placed on All-Star Anthony Davis. The team has gone 3-7 in their last 10 and that includes Saturday’s 99-90 loss at Memphis. New Orleans has been better at home (16-10 SU, 13-13 ATS) this season but it hasn’t been dominant versus teams from the East (5-4 SU, 3-6 ATS) and Orlando comes into this matchup surging.
The Magic have won and covered three straight and five of their last six games, two of those wins coming on the road. The team is playing with confidence and is only two games out of the eighth and final playoff spot in the East. Orlando has gone 2-1 both SU and ATS in its last three trips to New Orleans, which includes a 115-99 victory last season as a 7 ½-point underdog.
Boston (35-21 SU, 27-28-1 ATS) at Philadelphia (36-20 SU, 27-29 ATS)
The nationally televised double-header on TNT will begin in Philadelphia, who opened as a five-point home favorite and the number has been pushed up to -6 ½ as of Tuesday morning. Boston won’t have point guard Kyrie Irving (knee) available for this game.
The Celtics come into this game off back-to-back collapses at home, losing to the Lakers 129-128 last Thursday before falling to the Clippers 123-112 on Saturday. While Boston was falling apart to the pair from Los Angeles, Philadelphia posted a pair of impressive wins over the Nuggets (117-110) and Lakers (143-120). The club added Tobias Harris from the Clippers at the trade deadline and he’s averaging 18 PPG and 7 rebounds in his first two games with Philadelphia.
These teams have met twice already this season and Boston won and covered both contests, however those games were played at TD Garden and Irving was active in both contests, scoring 40 points in the Celtics’ 121-114 win on Christmas over Philadelphia. To say he’ll be missed tonight would be an understatement. Boston hasn’t been great on the road (13-13 SU, 9-16-1 ATS) and it’s been terrible when listed as an underdog this season, going 2-6 both SU and ATS. Make a note that the ‘over’ has gone 6-2 in those games. While the Celtics have been pedestrian on the road, Philadelphia has been a beast at home (23-6 SU, 16-13 ATS) this season.
Both clubs will be in action again tomorrow as Boston hosts Detroit and Philadelphia visits New York.
San Antonio (32-26 SU, 31-26-1 ATS) at Memphis (23-34 SU, 25-31-1 ATS)
Another possible trap game here with the Spurs listed as four-point road favorites but when you look at the series, it seems like a fair number. This will be the fourth and final meeting of the season between the pair and Memphis has gone 2-1 both SU and ATS versus San Antonio. The most recent encounter took place at FedEx Forum on Jan. 9 and the Grizzlies stifled the Spurs 96-86 as 2 ½-point home underdogs.
As solid as the Spurs have been this season, their road mark (10-19 SU, 13-15-1 ATS) hasn’t been great. However, their record when laying points as visitors (5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS) has been a tad better.
After going 7-23 in a brutal 30-game stretch, the Grizzlies have sort of found their footing with a 4-4 record over their last eight games. More importantly, they’ve been productive for bettors with a 6-1-1 ATS record and Memphis has gotten back to the grind with its defense and slow-tempo, and that’s helped the ‘under’ go 6-2 during this stretch.
This is the lowest total (208) on the board for Tuesday and while Memphis has been a great ‘under’ (36-21) lean, make a note that San Antonio has been the best ‘over’ (20-8-1) wager on the road.
Utah (32-24 SU, 28-26-2 ATS) at Golden State (40-15 SU, 24-30-1 ATS)
The Warriors and Jazz will conclude their three-game season series on Tuesday and Golden State has been installed as a healthy nine-point favorite. The first two games took place earlier in the season from Salt Lake City and they were split. Golden State earned a 124-123 win on Oct. 19 and Utah avenged that loss with a 108-103 victory on Dec. 9. The Jazz were 2 ½ and 2-point underdogs, covering both games and they’ve now cashed in five straight against the Warriors.
Utah has gone 2-3 SU and 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to Oracle Arena and the spread ranged between 9 and 14 points. As a road underdog this season, the Jazz have gone 5-7 SU and 5-6-1 ATS. This will be the final game of the first-half for the Jazz and they enter this game with wins and covers in three of their last four games.
After posting identical 13-7 records in the first two quarters of the season (26-14), the Warriors have been much better in the third stanza (14-1). For bettors, they’ve gone 8-6-1 ATS but they limp into this game with a 1-4 skid over their last five games. The ‘over’ has gone 9-6 during this stretch and tonight’s total (226) is definitely high for this series. The Jazz have seen the ‘over’ go 15-13 on the road.
TNT will provide coverage of this game at 10:35 p.m. ET.