Betting news, trends, odds and predictions for from various handicappers and websites for Wednesday 12/25/19
Christmas Day Trends
Marc Lawrence
With presents stacked under the Christmas tree, here's my gift to you, for all NBA fans to see.
With the Bucks and Lakers taking off in flight, a Merry Christmas to all and to all a good night!
CHRISTMAS PAST
Here’s a breakdown of the 10 teams playing on Christmas Day this season and how they’ve performed in games played on Dec. 25 since 1991:
-- Boston Celtics: 4-5 SU and 5-4 ATS and 5-4 O/U
Trending: 4-0 ATS last four games
-- Denver Nuggets: 2-3 SU and 2-3 ATS and 3-2 O/U
Trending: 2-0 SU and ATS at home
-- Golden State Warriors: 3-4 SU and 1-6 ATS and 2-5 O/U
Trending: 0-6 ATS last six games
-- Houston Rockets: 5-3 SU and 7-1 ATS and 3-3-2 ATS O/U
Trending: 7-0 ATS last seven games
-- L.A. Clippers: 5-5 SU and 5-5 ATS and 5-5 O/U
Trending: 5-2 ATS last seven games
-- L.A. Lakers: 9-12 SU and 13-7-1 ATS and 6-13-2 O/U
Trending: 6-1 ATS last seven games
-- Milwaukee Bucks: 1-1 SU and 1-1 ATS and 1-1 O/U
Trending: 1-0 SU and ATS last game
-- New Orleans Pelicans: 0-2 SU and 0-2 ATS and 0-2 O/U
Trending: 0-2 SU and ATS and O/U last two games
-- Philadelphia 76ers: 0-2 SU and 0-2 ATS and 1-1 O/U
Trending: 0-2 SU and ATS last two games
-- Toronto Raptors: 0-2 SU and 0-2 ATS and 1-1 O/U
Trending: 0-2 SU and ATS last two games
WHAT HAVE YOU DONE FOR ME LATELY?
Most recent noteworthy team trends wrapped inside each Christmas Day game for games played this season thru Sunday, Dec 22…
-- Boston Celtics: 7-3 SU and 9-1 ATS vs. .636 or greater foes
-- Denver Nuggets: 10-19 O/U
-- Golden State Warriors: 1-8 SU and ATS on Wednesdays
-- Houston Rockets: 6-11 ATS vs. sub .450 foes
-- L.A. Clippers: 3-1 SU and ATS vs. division
-- L.A. Lakers: 3-1 SU and ATS off SU favorite loss
-- Milwaukee Bucks: 12-2 SU and 10-4 ATS when not favored 9 more points
-- New Orleans Pelicans: 3-11-1 ATS vs. foe off a win
-- Philadelphia 76ers: 1-5 ATS vs. conference foe off a win
-- Toronto Raptors: 8-2 ATS home vs. conference foes
LIKE FEDEX, DEFENDING CHAMPIONS DELIVER
For the most part, Christmas Day has been a gifting experience for NBA’s defending champions.
It seems the better the opponent the better they perform. That’s confirmed by a 4-5 SU and 2-7 ATS mark against sub .666 foes, but a 9-7 SU and 9-6-1 ATS record against .666 or greater opponents.
Better yet, defending champions are 9-3 SU and 9-2-1 ATS on Christmas Day against foes playing with two or more days of rest.
UNDER THE CHRISTMAS TREE
Christmas Day brings solid defensive efforts out in teams on Santa’s Day.
Since 1991 all games are 35-52-5 O/U, including 5-21-2 O/U in games involving .777 or greater teams.
Expect low scoring contests in the Clippers-Lakers and the Bucks-76ers tilts on Wednesday.
THE GIFT THAT KEEPS ON GIVING
Since 1997, teams on Christmas Day playing off back-to-back SU and ATS losses (Los Angeles Lakers), the last as a favorite, are 10-2 SU and 11-1 ATS... including 10-1 SU and 10-0 for teams that are not installed as double-digit dogs.
Now, who said Santa Claus isn’t real?
Weekly Essentials
Tony Mejia
Games to Watch
Wednesday – Celtics at Raptors
Toronto keeps getting themselves into holes and digging out of them with Nick Nurse employing gimmick defenses one might face in a rec league. They rallied from 30 points down at Dallas and forced overtime Monday at Indiana despite falling behind by 15 points thanks to a box-and-one and 2-3 zone. With Pascal Siakam, Marc Gasol and Norman Powell all sidelined, Serge Ibaka and Patrick McCaw have joined the starting five and OG Anunoby is getting more touches. Boston remains without Marcus Smart and Gordon Hayward but could get the latter back from a sore foot for this one. Smart has begun practices but remains unlikely to play on Christmas Day. The team got a big boost with Enes Kanter being allowed to enter Canada after years skipping the road trip due to his issues with the Turkish government forcing him to feel unsafe outside of the U.S. Boston has won three of the past four meetings between these Atlantic Division rivals, averaging 112 points per game and giving up exactly that figure as well due to a blow out loss (118-95) last time they visited the ScotiaBank Arena in February. The Raptors have won eight straight home games against Boston, last losing in April of 2015.
Wednesday – Bucks at 76ers
Joel Embiid played through a flu bug on Monday, while Ben Simmons did the heavy lifting in a rout of overmatched Detroit with 16 points, 13 boards and 17 assists, helping facilitate Tobias Harris’ 35-point outburst. The 76ers have dropped their last three games against teams with winning records and are were installed as just a one-point favorite, by far the smallest figure they’ve been saddled with at home this season. Following a 14-0 start at Wells Fargo Arena, Philly has fallen in two of its last three in its gym. Milwaukee’s 12-2 road mark is the best in the NBA, but it remains without Eric Bledsoe (fibula fracture) for at least another week. The Bucks have won four of seven between these teams since 2018 began and the last five games have all seen 225 combined points scored, including over 250 in each of last season’s final two meetings.
Wednesday – Clippers at Lakers
Although the Clips have won 20 of 24 matchups in what is undoubtedly the worst nightmare for fans of the Purple and Gold, the only game that really matters for our purposes is that 112-102 loss at the beginning of the season. Paul George didn’t even suit up, but LeBron James and Anthony Davis shot a combined 15-for-40 and the Clippers’ much better bench outscored the Lakers 60-19 to complement Kawhi Leonard’s 30-point outburst. Rajon Rondo and Kyle Kuzma are both back to improve the Lakers’ depth, but Davis is questionable with a knee issue and James is likely to suit up despite sitting Sunday’s home setback to Denver with discomfort near his ribs in addition to an ailing elbow. The Lakers are just 10-4 at Staples this season and 14-2 outside L.A. The Clippers are 14-2 on their home floor but will have to deal with a Lakers’ crowd here.
Thursday – Spurs at Mavericks
After destroying the Grizzlies 145-115 on Monday night behind monster games from LaMarcus Aldridge and DeMar DeRozan and 67 percent shooting, the highest clip in the league this season, the Spurs look to win consecutive games for just the third time this season. They made 19 of their first 22 shots and wil look to avoid dropping multiple games against Dallas in the same season for the first time since the 2014-15 season. The Mavs won last month at home 117-110, snapping a run that had seen them lose 15 of 17 against their in-state rival. Luka Doncic scored 42 points and finished with 11 boards and 12 assists but isn’t likely to suit up here since he’s still working his way back from an ankle sprain. Jalen Brunson has excelled as the primary facilitator in helping keep Dallas right behind Houston in the Southwest Division title chase, averaging 14.6 points, 5.0 rebounds and 9.2 assists in relief of the fallen phenom.
Friday – Pacers at Heat
Indiana is hoping to have point guard Malcolm Brogdon back from a hamstring issue as they try and spoil Miami’s league-best 13-1 home record. The Heat rallied past Utah on Monday night and will be suiting up for the first time since that game here, so they should be well-rested fresh off the holiday. The same could be said about the Pacers, who have won six of seven despite nagging injuries as Domantas Sabonis has blossomed into an All-Star, averaging 16.8 points and 14.3 rebounds in December. This will be the first matchup of the season between these teams, which gives us an opportunity to see how another budding first-time All-Star, center Bam Adebayo, fares against Sabonis and Myles Turner. Indy has won four straight in the series, last losing in January of 2018.
Saturday – Raptors at Celtics
Boston should be back at full strength for this one barring any setbacks for Hayward and Smart, so count on it being favored here regardless of what happens on Christmas Day considering that it should be 13-1 at TD Garden after handling Cleveland on Friday. The Celtics are 2-1 SU and ATS on the second night of back-to-backs and entered the week with covers in seven of nine.
Saturday – Nets at Rockets
Houston won for the sixth time in seven games in Sacramento on Monday and will be heavily favored to close out a 4-0 road trip on Christmas night at Golden State. This will be their first home game since Dec. 16 and probably won’t feature Kyrie Irving’s only visit of the season since there’s a report out there that he’s now dealing with thoracic bursitis in addition to his shoulder impingement that has kept him out for weeks. Spencer Dinwiddie has averaged 27.3 points despite shooting just 29 percent from 3-point range this month. Brooklyn swept the Rockets last season, averaging 134 points in ending a five-game losing streak at the hands of Houston.
Saturday – 76ers at Heat
After splitting their first two meetings with Miami at home in this budding rivalry, the Sixers pay former teammate Jimmy Butler a visit looking to return the favor after absorbing their first home loss against the Heat (108-104) on Dec. 18. Embiid used to terrorize former Miami center Hassan Whiteside in winning five of six matchups entering the season but has found the going much tougher against Adebayo. The Sixers haven’t been an underdog since Nov. 13 but may be placed in that role here after playing in Orlando on Friday. Both teams will be playing the second of a back-to-back. Philly is 5-1 straight up (3-2-1 ATS) while Miami is just 1-4 SU in that situation.
Saturday – Lakers at Trail Blazers
After competing against the Clippers, L.A. will play its only road game between now and Jan. 10, returning for a five-game homestand that opens on Sunday. Portland had its season-best four-game win streak snapped in an upset loss to New Orleans on Monday and hopes to rebound at Utah mid-week. The Blazers surrendered 136 points in the first meeting between these teams. Only the Bucks have scored more (137) against Terry Stotts’ team this season.
Saturday – Jazz at Clippers
Mike Conley remains sidelined by a hamstring issue, but Joe Ingles is playing the best ball of his career to help keep Utah in the Northwest Division mix. The addition of Jordan Clarkson should help matters too. Among the teams with the Western Conference’s six best records, the Jazz are the only one with a losing record away from home.
Sunday – Thunder at Raptors
Considering they host the Grizzlies and visit Charlotte to open the week, OKC may carry a six-game home winning streak entering this one if they hold serve in games it should be favored in. Canadian second-year guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a Toronto native who scored 19 points in his lone visit to his hometown arena with the Clippers last season. He should be in every DFS lineup you utilize on Sunday considering he’s averaging over 20 points per game this month, scoring 32 in each of last weekend’s wins over the Suns and Clippers, shooting 58 percent from the field and making four of five 3-pointers.
Sunday - Mavericks at Lakers
Will Doncic be back for this one? He made Staples Center his playground in a 114-100 upset on Dec. 1, evening the season series between these teams.
Injuries to Monitor
Karl-Anthony Towns has missed four straight games with a knee injury, contributing to the Timberwolves’ brutal 11-game winning streak. He’s been listed as questionable every time he’s sat so there’s a chance he’ll return for Thursday’s matchup at Sacramento… Phoenix center Deandre Ayton has returned from suspension but is nursing an ankle injury and hasn’t suited up since his 18-point, 12-rebound game in his one contest against the Clippers but should be back at some point this week since he’s considered day-to-day. Phoenix has dropped seven straight entering a four-game road trip that begins on Friday… Detroit got a terrible effort from Blake Griffin in Monday’s loss due to the flu and was also missing shooter Luke Kennard due to a knee injury. Bruce Brown has been dealing with a calf issue… Brooklyn’s Caris LeVert should be closing in on a return date since he’s been back at practice this week for the first time, which means he’ll beat Irving back… Cavs reserve forward Larry Nance, Jr. is working through knee soreness… Heat wing Justise Winslow has returned to the active roster, so he should be back after being sidelined with nagging injuries for the better part of the last month… Wizards forward Davis Bertans has been one of the team’s biggest surprises but is dealing with a quad injury, which is disappointing since he was filling in nicely for injured rookie Rui Hachimura, who is out a indefinitely with a groin injury.
523BOSTON -524 TORONTO
BOSTON is 12-2 ATS (9.8 Units) vs. winning teams in the current season.
525MILWAUKEE -526 PHILADELPHIA
MILWAUKEE is 11-2 ATS (8.8 Units) versus good passing teams, averaging >=23 assists/game in the current season.
527HOUSTON -528 GOLDEN STATE
HOUSTON is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) in road games after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games in the current season.
529LA CLIPPERS -530 LA LAKERS
LA CLIPPERS are 28-15 ATS (11.5 Units) in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game in the last 3 seasons.
NBA
Wednesday, December 25
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Trend Report
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Toronto Raptors
Toronto is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Toronto is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Toronto is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games at home
Toronto is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing Boston
Toronto is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Boston
Toronto is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing at home against Boston
Boston Celtics
Boston is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games
Boston is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
Boston is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Boston is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Boston's last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games when playing Toronto
Boston is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Boston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Philadelphia 76ers
Philadelphia is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Philadelphia is 15-5 SU in its last 20 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games
Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Philadelphia is 16-2 SU in its last 18 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games at home
Philadelphia is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Milwaukee
Philadelphia is 5-15 SU in its last 20 games when playing Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing Milwaukee
Philadelphia is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
Philadelphia is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 7 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Milwaukee is 21-1 SU in its last 22 games
Milwaukee is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Milwaukee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Milwaukee is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
Milwaukee is 15-5 SU in its last 20 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Milwaukee is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Milwaukee is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 7 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Golden State Warriors
Golden State is 5-19 SU in its last 24 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Golden State's last 11 games
Golden State is 6-11-1 ATS in its last 18 games at home
Golden State is 4-13 SU in its last 17 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Golden State's last 8 games at home
Golden State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Houston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Golden State's last 6 games when playing Houston
Golden State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Houston
Golden State is 16-5 SU in its last 21 games when playing at home against Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Golden State's last 8 games when playing at home against Houston
Houston Rockets
Houston is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Houston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Houston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Houston's last 22 games on the road
Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Golden State
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games when playing Golden State
Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Golden State
Houston is 5-16 SU in its last 21 games when playing on the road against Golden State
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 8 games when playing on the road against Golden State
Los Angeles Lakers
LA Lakers is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
LA Lakers is 17-4 SU in its last 21 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Lakers's last 6 games
LA Lakers is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 games at home
LA Lakers is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Lakers's last 6 games at home
LA Lakers is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing LA Clippers
LA Lakers is 4-20 SU in its last 24 games when playing LA Clippers
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of LA Lakers's last 20 games when playing LA Clippers
LA Lakers is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against LA Clippers
LA Lakers is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against LA Clippers
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of LA Lakers's last 9 games when playing at home against LA Clippers
Los Angeles Clippers
LA Clippers is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
LA Clippers is 15-5 SU in its last 20 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Clippers's last 6 games
LA Clippers is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
LA Clippers is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Clippers's last 5 games on the road
LA Clippers is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing LA Lakers
LA Clippers is 20-4 SU in its last 24 games when playing LA Lakers
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of LA Clippers's last 20 games when playing LA Lakers
LA Clippers is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Lakers
LA Clippers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Lakers
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of LA Clippers's last 9 games when playing on the road against LA Lakers
Denver Nuggets
Denver is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 6 games
Denver is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Denver is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New Orleans
Denver is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games when playing at home against New Orleans
New Orleans Pelicans
New Orleans is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games
New Orleans is 2-14 SU in its last 16 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games
New Orleans is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
New Orleans is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Orleans's last 7 games on the road
New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Denver
New Orleans is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing on the road against Denver
NBA
Dunkel
Wednesday, December 25
Boston @ Toronto
Game 523-524
December 25, 2019 @ 12:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Boston
125.264
Toronto
123.917
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Boston
by 1 1/2
223
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boston
by 3
212 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Toronto
(+3); Over
Milwaukee @ Philadelphia
Game 525-526
December 25, 2019 @ 2:30 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Milwaukee
125.969
Philadelphia
127.016
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 1
223
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Milwaukee
by 3
220
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(+3); Over
Houston @ Golden State
Game 527-528
December 25, 2019 @ 5:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Houston
123.155
Golden State
108.700
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 14 1/2
213
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 11
226 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(-11); Under
LA Clippers @ LA Lakers
Game 529-530
December 25, 2019 @ 8:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
LA Clippers
119.415
LA Lakers
125.355
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Lakers
by 6
219
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Lakers
by 2
222 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Lakers
(-2); Under
New Orleans @ Denver
Game 531-532
December 25, 2019 @ 10:30 pm
Dunkel Rating:
New Orleans
112.794
Denver
125.925
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 13
215
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
by 9 1/2
218 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(-9 1/2); Unde
NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up
Wednesday, December 25
Celtics–Raptors
Boston won/covered its last three games; they’re 4-2 ATS as a road underdog. Three of their last four road games went over. Toronto won five of its last five games; they’re 10-5 ATS as a home favorite. Under is 4-2 in their last six games.
Home side won last ten Boston-Toronto games; Celtics are 0-5 ATS in last five visits to Canada. Four of last five series games went over.
Bucks-76ers
Milwaukee won 21 of its last 22 games; they won their last eight road games SU. Four of their last five road games went over. Philly split its last six games; they’re 8-4 ATS in last 12 games as a home favorite. 76ers’ last three games went over.
Bucks won six of last nine games with the 76ers; they’re 3-2 ATS in last five visits to Philly. Last five series games went over.
Rockets-Warriors
Houston won its last four games; they covered five of their last six road games. Three of their last four road games went over. Golden State won its last two games after a 1-9 skid; they’re 5-3 ATS in last eight home games (under 7-1).
Rockets are 3-5 in last eight games with Golden State; they covered four of last five trips to the Bay Area. Over is 4-1-1 in last six series games.
Clippers-Lakers
Clippers lost three of their last five games; they covered four of last five games at Staples. Five of their last six games went over. Lakers lost their last three games, are 0-5 ATS in last five; they’re 8-6 ATS at Staples TY. Three of their last four games went under.
Clippers won seven of last ten games with the Lakers; this is a home game for both sides. Under is 5-4-1 in last ten series games.
Pelicans–Nuggets
New Orleans won two of last three games after an -13 skid; they covered three of last four road games. Pelicans’ last four games stayed under. Denver won its last seven games; they’re 6-4 ATS in last ten home games. Ive of their last six games went over.
Pelicans won three of last four games with the Nuggets; they’re 2-3 ATS in last five trips to Denver. Over is 5-3 in last eight series games.