Betting Notebook
By PJ Laferla
VegasInsider.com
As we approach one month in the books in this shortened NBA regular season, let’s take a look at how teams are performing around the league.
Eastern Conference
Are you Surprised?
In the Eastern Conference, you are really good or really bad. In fact, only six teams boast a winning record and three of those teams are from the same division. Six other teams are at least five or more games under .500 and show no sign of improving.
Philadelphia is clearly the surprise of the East and the league for that matter. They lead the Atlantic Division by four games and are the only team with a winning record in their group. And where it matters most, to people like us, they are an outstanding 11-3 record against the spread – that’s a 78% point spread cover ratio, easily tops in the NBA.
Chicago is dominating the Central Division with a 13-3 record and have yet to lose a game at home (6-0). They make for a good bet as well, with backers seeing them cover 62.5% of the time. Atlanta, Orlando and Miami are battling for the top spot in the Southeast Division, but the Heat is well behind in the ATS category, with a losing record of 6-7 versus the number.
The bottom feeder teams (which is almost everyone not mentioned above) are also the ATS disasters of the East. Detroit and Washington are a combined 5-24 straight up, with just one win on the road. More importantly, the pair owns an 8-21 (28%) ATS record.
New Jersey, Toronto, Milwaukee and Charlotte – all teams with no more than four wins are also losers against the spread thus far in the early going; but no one is anywhere near New York and its woeful 3-11 ATS (21%) ledger.
For the most part, the winning teams are also covering, but proceed with caution and don’t make a play solely for that reason. You still need to do your research, find value and then and only then put yourself in action.
Western Conference
There’s No Place Like Home!
With the exception of Oklahoma City (7-3) and Denver (4-3), no other team in the West has accumulated more than two wins on the road.
San Antonio, Dallas and the L.A. Lakers have combined for an embarrassing four wins playing away from their house. Even worse, both the Pacific and Southwest divisions (10 teams) have only tallied 16 wins as visitors.
As a conference however, they fair much better in the ATS category. The entire Northwest Division has been positive for gamblers this season, with the Nuggets leading the way versus the number (11-4 ATS).
Overall, the West has a much different pattern than the East. As I pointed out, in the East the losers also tend not to cover the spread, but in the West, teams like Houston and Mavericks, who are both hovering around the .500 mark are covering the spread just about 65% of the time.
Even the last place Minnesota Timberwolves get the job done in Vegas, owning a 9-5 ATS record.
Then you taka a team like Oklahoma City who seems to have their sites set on a title, but can't get the job done against the spread (8-7).
The Los Angeles Clippers have created a buzz with the Lob City frenzy, and the bettors have been impressed with the results as they own a pedestrian 7-5 ATS record.