NBA Betting Preview
By Bodog
It’s only the biggest experiment in the history of the NBA. We’re about to see if three MVP-quality players can co-exist on the same team. If so, the Miami Heat will toy with the NBA odds all season long. If not, there’s a ton of money to be made from fading Miami. Which will it be?
In case you missed it, LeBron James and Chris Bosh have joined Dwyane Wade in Miami. All three took a little less money as free agents in order to play together; that also allowed the Heat to sign Mike Miller and retain the services of Udonis Haslem, among others. But the focus is on the Big Three, aka the Super Friends. Here’s how they ranked in Player Efficiency Rating (PER) last year:
1. James (31.19)
2. Wade (28.10)
3. Kevin Durant (26.23)
4. Bosh (25.11)
5. Tim Duncan (24.79)
Now we begin to see the enormity of the situation. When the Boston Celtics put together their Big Three of Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen, there were concerns about how the trio would interact on the court. They ended up dominating the league at 66-16 SU and shredding the basketball betting lines at 52-28-2 ATS. But these were not three of the truly best players in the NBA. For comparison sake, here are some PER numbers from 2006-07, the year before they won the championship with the Celtics:
1. Wade (29.04)
6. James (24.56)
8. Garnett (24.20)
17. Bosh (22.72)
23. Pierce (21.73)
24. Allen (21.70)
This is why the Heat are 2-3 favorites to win the Eastern Conference and 7-4 to win the title. The Celtics won’t go away quietly, though. They’ve kept their Big Three together for one more year, adding a pair of O’Neals in Shaquille and Jermaine to bolster the frontcourt while Kendrick Perkins recovers from torn knee ligaments. Shaquille O’Neal (17.92 PER) has been roundly criticized for not bringing championships to Phoenix and Cleveland, even though he played at an astonishingly good level for his age. If he can maintain his output (a legitimate concern for a 38-year-old center), the Celtics will be a strong value pick coming out of the East at 5-1 to win the conference and 11-1 for the title.
But like Ric Flair says, to be the man, you’ve got to beat the man. The Los Angeles Lakers are the man right now, and they made some positive moves of their own during the offseason in search of yet another three-peat for coach Phil Jackson. Joining the proven championship core will be point guard Steve Blake, forward Matt Barnes and center Theo Ratliff. All three are upgrades over the men they replace: Jordan Farmar, Josh Powell and D.J. Mbenga. This is an important step forward for a team whose primary flaw last year was bench strength.
The Lakers managed to beat the Celtics for the title in 2009-10 even without Kobe Bryant (21.95 PER) and Andrew Bynum (20.26 PER) at their best because of knee problems. Both had surgery in the offseason; Bryant is planning to play only 12-16 minutes in L.A.’s first preseason game Monday against the Minnesota Timberwolves in London, while Bynum isn’t expected to see any action until late November. It could be a rough go during the regular season (the oft-injured Lakers were 33-46-3 ATS last year), but come playoff time, L.A. is 4-5 to win the West and 5-2 to complete the three-peat.
The only other team in the West getting much buzz is the Oklahoma City Thunder. They have Durant, who has established himself as an MVP-caliber player. They have point guard Russell Westbrook (17.90 PER) on the verge of becoming an All-Star in his third year as a pro. And they have a talented and deep supporting cast at their disposal. But it was a fairly quiet offseason for the Thunder, so matching last year’s 50-win total won’t be easy. Given a clean bill of health, though, Oklahoma City is in position to move past the Lakers should the champions falter. The Thunder are second favorites at 6-1 to win the West, plus 14-1 for their first title since the Seattle SuperSonics of 1978-79.