NBA Betting Roadmap, Week 23
By Al McMordie
Covers.com
With 17 days left in the NBA's regular season, it appears that we will have six teams in the playoffs that were left out last season. In the Eastern Conference, Miami, Charlotte, Indiana and Detroit are poised to replace Chicago, Washington, Milwaukee and Brooklyn. And out West, Oklahoma City and Utah will likely take spots filled by Houston and Dallas last season. Some new blood in the playoffs is good for any sports league, though I will certainly miss the presence of the Dirk Nowitzki, should the Mavericks fail to make it for just the 2nd time of the last 16 seasons. With much playoff jockeying still going on, let's take a look at the upcoming week.
Spread Watch
The Chicago Bulls are currently on the outside of the Eastern Conference post-season picture. After losing back-to-back games to the Knicks on Wednesday and Thursday, power forward Taj Gibson proclaimed that he was "embarrassed" by his team's play, and that the Bulls were "just laying down" and needed to "man up." Following those comments, the team traveled to Orlando to play the Magic, on Saturday. Gibson, himself, lived up to his words, and went 8-for-9 from the floor. But his teammates combined to go just 28-for-79. Orlando, already eliminated from the playoffs, crushed Chicago, 111-89, as a 7-point underdog. And the Bulls suffered their fourth straight pointspread defeat. It certainly won't get any easier this week, as the Bulls will be saddled with five games in seven days. And the first four are all against teams fighting for playoff positioning (Hawks, Pacers, Rockets, Pistons). Perhaps, then, the game to circle to play on the Bulls will be its fifth game this week -- at Milwaukee, on Sunday. This season, teams playing their fifth game in seven days are a solid 50-32-1 ATS. And the Bulls have dominated the Bucks, as they're 27-11 SU and 25-13 ATS in the last 38 meetings.
Total Watch
The Utah Jazz are in a desperate push to make the playoffs, after missing out entirely the past three seasons. And coach Quin Snyder has his troops playing solid defense. The Jazz rank among the Top 10 in defensive efficiency, and have held 11 of their last 13 opponents to less than 100 points (92.38 ppg, on average). Only the Warriors and Thunder -- the NBA's top two offensive teams -- have cracked the century mark against Utah since March 4. Not surprisingly, the Jazz are 9-3-1 'Under' the total during this span. This week, Utah will host games against the Lakers, Warriors and T-Wolves, before traveling to Phoenix, to play the Suns. Utah's game vs. the Lakers, on Tuesday, is a good candidate to be low-scoring, as the Jazz have held Los Angeles to 74 and 82 points in their two meetings this season. And this series has gone 19-10-2 'Under' the total since April 23, 2009.
Injury Watch
Blake Griffin has been cleared to play by the Clippers' medical staff. He still must serve a four-game suspension, so he'll finally see the court on Sunday, against the Wizards. Certainly, this is welcome news for Doc Rivers' troops, notwithstanding the fact the team actually played better without him. The Clippers were 17-13 SU and 10-16-4 ATS with Griffin healthy, but are 28-14 SU and 23-19 ATS with him sidelined. Still, the recent trend (with Griffin sidelined) has been bad. Since March 9, the Clips are a dismal 4-6 SU and 2-8 ATS. Besides getting their star player back, Los Angeles will have a nice advantage against the Wizards conferred by the schedule. Los Angeles will play that game with 2 days' of rest. And NBA teams are 55-23-1 ATS their last 79 with at least 2 days' of rest, provided their opponent is not as well-rested.
Schedule Watch
At 66-7, the Golden State Warriors are very likely to set the record for most wins in a season. Though some may point to the two games in April against San Antonio as potential roadblocks, it's hard for me to see that happening. First, Gregg Popovich officially raised the white flag this past Saturday when he rested his five best players against Oklahoma City. So, San Antonio has officially withdrawn from the race for home court advantage. And, second, from a gamesmanship perspective, I would be very much surprised if the Spurs played either of those two games with a full contingent of players. San Antonio already defeated Golden State, 87-79, nine days ago. That game provided his team with the confidence necessary for a possible playoff series down the road. The last thing Popovich will want to do is have his team's confidence eroded in any way. When the Warriors and Spurs meet in April, I expect to see a lot of Kyle Anderson, Jonathon Simmons, Boban Marjanovic and Andre Miller. The one team, however, which I like to defeat Golden State (and snap the Warriors' 53-game, regular season home win streak) is Washington. The two teams will hook up this Tuesday, at Oracle Arena, and the Wizards will be a double-digit road underdog. Golden State did win at Washington, 134-121, last month. But John Wall scored 41 in defeat for the Wizards, who outscored the Warriors 93-91 in the last three quarters. Don't be surprised if Washington shocks the world, and wins on Tuesday.
Hopeless/Hopeful
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com
It’s the time of year where NBA teams are starting to drop like flies. Unless you’re following LeBron James’ lead and locking in on the mission ahead, gearing up for the postseason, odds are your brain starts to shift into vacation mode.
In this week’s 3-pointer, we’ll break down the hopeless, hopeful and those on cruise control.
Hopeless
How about those Lakers? They’re 52 games back of Golden State in the Pacific Division and appear to be a lock to finish with the second-worst record in the NBA, improving their chances of keeping this year’s draft choice, which would otherwise go to Phoenix if it doesn’t end up top-three. Beyond a proper send-off for the legendary Kobe Bryant, you know L.A. isn’t interested in finishing strong.
In fact, they’re currently interested in avoiding implosion. According to ESPN, D’Angelo Russell pulled a stunt where he videotaped Nick Young without his knowledge, shedding light on his indiscretions in spite of being engaged to rapper Iggy Azalea. You can’t make this type of things up if you tried, but it’s apparently bled into the fabric of an already bad team, leading to him being ostracized by many teammates. Russell, dealing with a sprained ankle, shot 2-for-11 in Monday’s 123-75 loss to Utah and has only dished out three assists in the last three games. The Lakers enter Wednesday’s contest against Miami as owners of four consecutive double-digit losses.
By comparison, the 76ers have been very competitive over the past week or so, covering in tight losses at Denver, Portland and Golden State before falling by 15 points and failing to cash against Charlotte at home. They’re looking for a 10th win that will help the franchise avoid tying the 1972-73 group’s record for futility (9-73), but aren’t likely to get it this week given a road date with the surging Hornets in addition to a home game with Indiana.
Beware of those massive point spreads – surrendering double-digits at home is rarely a good look -- but understand that there are some teams who will be no-shows over the final two weeks. The Pelicans have already shelved Anthony Davis the rest of the way due to knee issue and have declared Ryan Anderson’s injury a sports hernia. Jrue Holiday’s toe trouble and Alonzo Gee’s knee injury have been deemed season-ending. With Eric Gordon and Tyreke Evans out, the Pelicans lost three games by a combined 46 points before Monday’s home win over the Knicks.
The Bucks had a surge when initially putting the ball in Giannis Antetokounmpo’s hands as the point forward, but enter the week on a five-game losing streak they’ll take into a March 30 home date against Phoenix. With Orlando and Chicago coming into town, they have an opportunity to string a few wins together, but are currently right there with the Knicks and Magic vying to avoid the third-worst record in the Eastern Conference.
Whispers over players tuning out Scott Skiles in Orlando has him facing an important week considering their next four games are winnable, but it remains to be seen whether the team is going to play out the string. There have been positive signs in blowouts of the Bulls (111-89) and Nets (139-105), but a team that’s been besieged by injuries needs to finish strong to inspire home for next year. The Magic will have a lot of cap space to attract upper-tier free agents and will want a stable environment in place.
Hopeful
Chicago looked dreadful in that loss in Central Florida, digging itself a major hole in its quest to make the playoffs. The Bulls then lost at home to Atlanta before being rescued by Jimmy Butler in Indiana on Tuesday. Now at .500 with eight games to go, they’ve at least given themselves a chance by surviving at the Pacers. Butler, Pau Gasol and Derrick Rose have all been banged up but have made it back into the lineup. Where they go from here will depend on how well those three play over the next few weeks, which essentially means the postseason has started early for this group. Fred Hoiberg has lamented his inability to reach his players of late, as they’ve suffered lopsided losses in a home-and-home against the Knicks before being throttled in Orlando. They’ll go to Houston on Thursday for one of the more meaningful games of the week.
Washington also finds themselves on the outside looking in, underachieving under Randy Wittman again. The Wizards have only eight games left after coming up short at the Warriors, so being two games under .500, leaves them with little room for error if they’re to catch Indiana or Detroit for No. 8. Their fate will likely be decided on the West Coast road trip they’re currently embarked upon, which started with a win over the Lakers and continued in Golden State on Tuesday. Games against the Kings, Suns and Clippers will all be winnable if they’re playing well, but coming up empty could put them too far behind the pace to take advantage of a favorable looking closing slate that features a pair of games against lowly Brooklyn.
The Western Conference is tightly packed, as Memphis continues to hang on to No. 5 and Portland has separated itself some from the group that includes Utah, Houston and Dallas. Each of those teams had playoff aspirations entering the season, but one will find themselves home watching when the postseason begins. The Rockets are currently hanging on at No. 8, coming back from 19 points down at halftime in Cleveland to rally past the LeBron James-less Cavs, but can’t get comfortable with Chicago and OKC up next. The Rockets travel to Dallas for a huge game on April 6, so it will be interesting to see where the Mavericks are entering that encounter since they’ll face the Knicks, Pistons and Timberwolves next, doing so with Chandler Parsons done for the season and Deron Williams looking to return from an abdominal strain.
It would definitely appear that the Jazz are in better shape than the Mavs or Rockets, as they have dates with the Timberwolves, Suns, Nuggets and Lakers remaining, not to mention a key home game with Dallas on April 11. One team they’ll deal with that doesn’t sound like a favorable matchup is Golden State, who comes into town Wednesday.
The Warriors have already defeated Utah three times, but aren’t likely to rest guys on the second night of a back-to-back since their pursuit of 73 wins has them tackling every game like a must-win. We’ll see whether that catches up to them in May and June, but for now they’re still in this hopeful category, looking at every game as one they’ll pull out all the stops to win.
Cruising
San Antonio has already gone into conservation mode, with Gregg Popovich resting players wherever he sees fit. It will be interesting to see whether Pop shows his hand against the Warriors, since although both of their remaining meetings are involved in back-to-backs, both will be the first leg of one. It would be surprising to see the Spurs play any game for the remainder of the regular season at full strength.
LeBron and Kevin Durant each sat Tuesday as both feel comfortable with their current place in the standings. Although the Cavs are still in jeopardy of being caught by Toronto, James is taking care of his body first and foremost, assuring people that he feels healthier than he has in years at this stage of the season. Watching teammates Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love implode in surrendering a massive lead in a nationally-televised home game against the Rockets on Tuesday had to be frustrating, but it does help his case that things must be done his way in order to emerge victorious. Cleveland is now 1-3 in games where James doesn’t play and will undoubtedly get a few more cracks without him as April rolls around.