NBA Betting Roadmap, Week 24
By Al McMordie
Covers.com
When the NBA schedule resumes Tuesday, there will be just nine game days left in the season. I don't think anyone thought, when the season started, that the Warriors would win 73 games. But they've been brilliant the entire season, and I can't see them losing another regular season game. Minnesota and Memphis don't have the talent to defeat a motivated Warriors team. The Spurs do, but it's doubtful coach Gregg Popovich will give many minutes to his best players in either of their two remaining games vs. Golden State. Of course, there's still lots of jockeying left in the race for the Playoffs, so let's take a look at the upcoming games.
Spread Watch
The Utah Jazz are in a dogfight with Dallas and Houston for the last two Playoff spots in the Western Conference. Just one game separates the three teams and, barring a complete collapse by the 41-36 Memphis Grizzlies, only two of the Jazz, Mavericks and Rockets will reach the post-season. The Jazz have won and covered 10 of their last 13 games. Their 3 losses: in overtime to Golden State; at Oklahoma City (without rest); and at Chicago. After Sunday's blowout of Phoenix, the Jazz are now 8-0 ATS their last eight games as a favorite. Utah will be favored to win at least four of its last five games (and possibly all five, should Popovich decide to rest the Spurs' best players on Tuesday). I really like the Jazz on Friday against the Clippers. Utah will be playing with revenge from a 5-point home loss to Los Angeles back in December. And the Clips are a dreadful 3-15 ATS their last 18 games against revenge-minded foes.
Total Watch
The New York Knicks have played their last six games 'Under' the total, and are 18-6 'Under' the total since Kurt Rambis succeeded Derek Fisher as head coach. A big reason for this is New York's pace of play. For the season, the Knicks rank in the bottom five in pace (93.4). As their season winds toward a close, the Knicks' offensive production might take a hit. Last week, Carmelo Anthony (21.9 ppg), Robin Lopez (10.2 ppg) and Jose Calderon (7.5 ppg) suggested to Rambis that he decrease their minutes in favor of giving more time to the team's younger players. Rambis played Anthony just 25 minutes in Friday's game vs. Brooklyn, and then gave him the entire night off on Sunday, vs. Indiana. Rookie Kristaps Porzingis (14.3 ppg) also missed the last two games, and could be held out of the Knicks' last four games. New York's game at Philadelphia, on Friday, looks to be a great candidate to sail 'Under' the total, as the Sixers have gone 'Under' in six of their last seven games.
Injury Watch
Kyrie Irving sprained his ankle in Friday night's overtime win, at Atlanta. Irving missed Sunday's game vs. Charlotte (a 112-103 Cleveland victory), and it's unclear how long he will be sidelined. Irving is averaging 19.5 ppg and 4.6 apg, so his production is critical for the Cavaliers, as they make their push for the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference. This season, the Cavaliers are 20-8 straight-up, but 12-15-1 ATS with Irving off the court. Their game on Wednesday, at Indiana, looks especially problematic if Irving is out. Cleveland will be playing that game without rest, as it will be in Milwaukee on Tuesday, while Indiana will have had the previous two days off. Moreover, the Pacers will be playing with revenge from three losses suffered to the Cavs earlier this season. All of this spells trouble for Cleveland, as revengers have gone 58-37 ATS in the final five games of a season since 1991, if they played with at least two more days' of rest than their foe.
Schedule Watch
When an NBA regular season enters its final days, most players have their eyes either on the Playoffs or the golf course. So, one of the things I try to do at the end of a season is find games where the players might not be fully focused. A good place to start is the schedule. For example, unrested teams that are playing their fourth game in five nights are especially bad, at Game 77 forward, against rested opponents. Since 1991, they've covered just 28 of 85 games! This upcoming Saturday, the New Orleans Pelicans will host the Phoenix Suns. And it will be New Orleans' fourth game in five nights, while Phoenix will be rested following its game, at Houston, on Thursday. It's true that the Suns are currently mired in a six-game losing streak (and likely eight games, by the time they reach New Orleans), but my money will still be on the underdog Suns in this contest.
NBA Weekly Dose for 4/06- 4/10
By Brandon Shively
Covers.com
Here are some key betting opportunities that I have identified for the upcoming week in the NBA. Enjoy and the Best of Luck as Always!
Wednesday 4/06
Cleveland at Indiana---This could be a potential first round Playoff preview as the Pacers are currently in a battle with the Pistons for the 7th/8th seed in the East. The Pacers need to win this game obviously and are playing with same season triple revenge. I will note that all three meetings have been decided by four or less points this year and the Pacers won both of their home meetings last year. Cleveland played last night and are playing their fifth game in seven nights. HC Lue will more than likely sit some starters so don’t be shocked if the Pacers are a favorite here. (Cleveland is 0-4 ATS this year without Lebron James).
Oklahoma City @ Portland----The Thunder just played last night in Denver and now have to travel to Portland while having the No.3 seed in the West secured. Portland is looking to claim the No.5 seed in the West as the Memphis Grizzlies are falling, and are looking to make amends from a 34 point loss to the Thunder last month. The home team has won the last five meetings. While this is Oklahoma City’s 3rd road game in 4 nights, it is Portland’s 4th game in 5 nights, and fatigue could be an issue for both teams. With a total that will be hovering around the low 120’s, the ‘Under’ might be worth a second look.
Thursday 4/07
Toronto at Atlanta----Atlanta is trying to stop the bleeding as the Raptors have beaten them by eight or more points in all three meetings this season. The Hawks will be looking to avoid the season sweep and earn some respect while fighting for the 3rd/4th seed in the East which would give them homecourt in the first round of the playoffs. Toronto’s Kyle Lowry has been struggling and HC Casey might use this game as a spot to give his starters some rest, as they look like they will be the No.2 seed and have game back home Friday night against the Pacers.
San Antonio at Golden State----While this game should get all of the national attention, there is not much to play for here. The Warriors undefeated home streak got snapped last week against the Celtics. The Warriors have the No.1 seed locked in while the Spurs are locked in at the No.2 seed. Neither team will want to show the other too much here and I would expect some starters to rest and for the reserves to play a bigger role here. If the total is in the 210 range or higher, I think the ‘UNDER’ is worth a second look here.
Friday 4/08
NY Knicks @ Philadelphia----This might be the last winnable game for the 76ers. They already have the NBA’s worst record set in stone which comes with the higher probability of getting the No.1 pick in the 2016 Draft. The 76ers should use this game as some kind of motivation to come together and try to win a game. The Knicks will likely be without their rookie center Kristaps Porzingis, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Carmelo Anthony and some other starters took the night off here. The 76ers might be the favorite here, but don't’ let that shy you away from them as these kids should be hungry for a win.
San Antonio @ Denver----The Spurs are coming off the game against the Warriors and heading into the altitude against the Denver Nuggets who are a team that has shown some fight down over the last month, even though their playoff hope are eliminated. This line might be short considering the Spurs will probably be sitting some starters with the No.2 seed locked in. Denver has lost the last 10 regular season meetings to the Spurs and last won on April 10th, 2013 as a 3.5 point home favorite when they had won 21 straight home games. Clearly this Denver team is not up to par as the one in 2013, but the feeling here is they might have enough in the tank to keep this one competitive against an unmotivated San Antonio team.
Saturday 4/09
Cleveland at Chicago---If the Bulls are still in the playoff hunt come Saturday, this is a ‘must win’ for the team, no questions asked. The Bulls opened up this season with a 97-95 win at home against the Cavaliers. They also beat them 96-83 on the road in January, so the Bulls should have confidence here . Cleveland is playing this game on two days rest, but there is still not motivation for the team as a whole playing in their final road game of the season. Don’t let this line fool you as the Bulls might be listed as a small favorite. It’s do or die for the players along with HC Hoiberg in his first season as the Bulls coach. I like Hoiberg better than Tyronn Lue for the Cavs in a close game to make the better personnel and play calling decisions.
Sunday 4/10
Golden State @ San Antonio----The Spurs should be playing this game to keep their undefeated home winning streak in tact, something the Warriors did not do. So there is motivation here for the Spurs playing at home, coming off a three game road trip. This is the 4th and final regular season meeting between the two best teams in the West. The Warriors just played last night in Memphis and will be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. With the Overall No.1 seed locked in, Steve Kerr would be wise to give Curry or Thompson the night off. If that’s the case, the Warriors have lost games this season when Curry or Thompson has missed and that was against Milwaukee and Dallas. The Warriors are 2-5 ATS their last seven games on a back to back, which includes a 87-79 loss as San Antonio on March 19th. This is the same situation here.