NBA Betting Roadmap, Week 25
By Big Al McMordie
Covers.com
The Golden State Warriors killed two birds with one stone on Sunday. By defeating San Antonio, 92-86, the Warriors not only snapped a 33-game regular season losing streak in the Alamo City, but they also equaled the Chicago Bulls' record for 72 wins in a season. All eyes will be on Steph Curry & Co. on Wednesday, when they will attempt to win #73, at home vs. the Grizzlies. And, of course, there are still two Playoff berths up for grabs in the Western Conference, as well as seeds to be determined, so let's take a look at the upcoming week.
Spread Watch
The San Antonio Spurs lost for the sixth straight game against the spread on Sunday, and they've failed to cover by 6.08 ppg in this stretch. It's also the longest ATS losing streak for the Silver and Black in the past two seasons. The main problem for the Spurs has been on the offensive end, as they've failed to shoot 50% from the floor in any of the six pointspread defeats (after shooting 50+ percent in five of the eight games previous to the ATS losing streak). And their opponent has outshot them in each of the last five games. This week, San Antonio will attempt to right its ship with a home game against the Thunder, on Tuesday, and a road game vs. Dallas, on Wednesday. The good news for San Antonio -- at least for its game vs. the Thunder -- is that Oklahoma City will be playing without rest following its tilt with the Lakers, on Monday. The Spurs are a solid 74-45-1 ATS since February 24, 2010 when playing against an unrested opponent, including 19-5 ATS if the Spurs are also off an upset loss. Gregg Popovich's crew look to be a solid bet in their final home game of the regular season.
Total Watch
The Oklahoma City Thunder have played five straight games 'Over' the total. And, in each of those five games, both OKC and its opponent have scored more than 100 points. This week, the Thunder will close out their home schedule with a date vs. the Lakers, on Monday. And, then, on Tuesday, the Thunder will travel to San Antonio to play the Spurs, in what could be a preview of a quarter-finals match. I like the Thunder/Lakers game to sail 'Over' the total, as the Lakers gave up 130 points to the Rockets, on Sunday. And they surrendered 110 to the Pelicans in the game before that. Los Angeles has gone 'Over' in 11 of 16 games when playing without rest. Additionally, these two teams have gone 'Over' 14-5-1 in their last 20 meetings.
Schedule Watch
In the final week of the NBA season, there are several situations on which I like to wager that relate to the schedule. One such situation involves playing on teams in their final home game of the season, provided they're off momentum-building SU/ATS wins in their previous two games. These teams have been 'money in the bank' in their last game in front of their home faithful, as they've cashed 66 of 102 since 1991. Of course, there's nothing wrong with 64.7%. But we can tighten our angle up considerably by eliminating all games where our opponent is playing with double-revenge. Then, our 66-36 ATS angle zooms to 51-18, 73.9% ATS! On Tuesday, two teams fit our Last Home Game system: the Pistons (vs. the Heat) and the Clippers (vs. the Grizzlies). Looking ahead to Wednesday, there could be five more plays (depending on Monday's results): the Wizards, Bulls, Timberwolves, Rockets and Suns. Of these games, my favorite would be Detroit, for two reasons. First, Detroit will be playing with revenge from a 107-89 loss at Miami last Tuesday (Detroit's 20-7-2 ATS its last 29 at home when playing with revenge). And, second, Detroit will be playing its final home game with three days' of rest (since 1991, winning teams have cashed 65% in their final home game, if they played with at least two more days of rest than their opponent).