NBA Betting Roadmap
By Al McMordie
Covers.com
It's been a fantastically entertaining first half of the NBA season, with Golden State garnering most of the attention, due to its 24-game win streak to start the season. But a number of teams are starting to play very good basketball, among them the Clippers and Knicks. And that must make Commissioner Adam Silver very happy, as he no doubt wants relevant teams in the two biggest markets. Let's take a look at some of the stories making news around the NBA.
Spread Watch
The Brooklyn Nets are an absolute train wreck. They're 10-27, and fired GM Billy King and coach Lionel Hollins yesterday. Tony Brown, who played a season for the Nets in 1986-87, has been named interim head coach. Owner Mikhail Prokhorov claimed that he made the moves because the franchise needed a "fresh start and a new vision for the direction of the team." But it was Prokhorov's impatient "Win Now" vision, which was at the root of Billy King's player moves the last few years, that started the team down this path. Brooklyn has failed to cover its last four games, and has been installed as a 14-point home underdog to the Spurs on Monday night. Given that the Nets are 8-20-1 ATS their last 29 vs. the Spurs does not bode well for Tony Brown's first day on the job. Brooklyn's best chance in the near term for a win seems to be Friday, at home, vs. Portland.
Total Watch
Two weeks ago, I highlighted the Atlanta Hawks, who were on a 6-game streak of going 'Over' the total. Well, all the Hawks have done since then is go 'Over' the total in five of their last six (so, 11 of their last 12), including the last five in a row. One of the main reasons for Atlanta's high-scoring run has been the insertion of Kent Bazemore into the starting lineup by coach Mike Budenholzer. And, in their last 12 games, the Hawks have averaged 110.08 ppg, compared to 100.1 ppg prior to the insertion of Bazemore into the starting five. Atlanta will attempt to go 'Over' the total for the sixth straight time when it takes the court on Wednesday, at Charlotte. And the Hornets have been a red carpet on defense, lately, as they've allowed five of their last seven opponents to reach the century mark, and have given up an average of 107 ppg over their last seven games (compared to 98.9 ppg prior to that point). Another high-scoring game by the Hawks wouldn't surprise.
Injury Watch
Rudy Gobert missed 18 games with a sprained MCL, but returned last Thursday, and played 15 minutes vs. the Rockets. But his playing time expanded to 28 minutes against the Heat on Saturday, and 30 minutes at the Lakers, on Sunday. Gobert's one of the best defensive players in the league. And his value is illustrated by the fact that, in the 18 games he missed, Utah's defense was the 4th-worst in the NBA, but ranked as the 7th-best defense in the games Gobert's played this season. The Jazz held the Miami Heat to 83 points, in a 15-point win on Saturday, and followed that up with an 86-74 victory against the Lakers the next night. With games this week against Portland, Sacramento and the Lakers, I look for Utah to continue its strong defensive play, and extend its win streak to five games.
Schedule Watch
The Cleveland Cavaliers will embark on the dreaded "Texas Triangle" this week. That is, they'll play three consecutive road games at Dallas (Tuesday), San Antonio (Thursday) and Houston (Friday). LeBron James' Cavs have been a money-burner on the road in the regular season the past two years, as they're 25-34-1 ATS. And, since 1990, NBA teams are an awful 133-260 straight-up on this Lone Star State trip. And they're especially poor when the Texas teams are off back-to-back SU/ATS wins, as they're 12-47 SU and 22-36 ATS in that situation. So, check the recent results of the Mavericks, Spurs and Rockets prior to playing the Cavs to see if any of the games qualify under this angle.
Clips to be tested
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com
The nonsensical hot take that the Clippers are better off without Blake Griffin is growing louder. The All-Star power forward, who was playing at an all-NBA level before being lost to torn quad tendon following a Christmas night win against the Lakers, has now watched his team win eight consecutive games without him.
For the record, they’re winning in spite of his absence, not because of it. Griffin is averaging 23.2 points, 8.7 rebounds and 5.0 assists per game. The Clips run a lot of offense through him, which helps take pressure off Chris Paul, making the game easier since they flourish playing the two-man game.
While it’s great that the Clippers have responsibly stepped up with Griffin gone, they haven’t beaten a single team with a winning record on the nine-game winning streak they take into Wednesday’s home date against Miami. The Heat have been nursing their own injuries over the past week, but represents the best team L.A. has seen since a 100-99 loss to Oklahoma City on Dec. 21.
Take a look at the Clippers’ victims. The 76ers are on the list, 130-99 losers at home. L.A. has beaten the Pelicans twice, only running into Anthony Davis once. Injury-plagued Charlotte, which enters the week with seven straight setbacks, have also lost a pair. The Jazz were without Derrick Favors and Rudy Gobert in their loss. Slumping Portland had Damian Lillard back, but he shot 7-for-25.
This isn’t to disparage L.A.’s role in its success, but to point out they haven’t exactly faced murderer’s row. Paul Pierce, Wesley Johnson and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute have gotten the bulk of the frontcourt minutes in Griffin’s absence, which served to reduce expectations enough that the last seven of L.A.’s wins before Sunday’s OT win over New Orleans also managed to cover the spread.
Six of the wins came on the road, which is impressive regardless of the competition, but don’t listen to the noise that Griffin’s contributions somehow hold them back. Odds are good that he’ll be back by the time the Clippers go back to living out of suitcases for a five-game East trek that begins in Cleveland on Jan. 21, so this stint of Staples Center games against Miami, Sacramento and rival Houston should be particularly challenging. All three teams will be underdogs at Staples, but have been playing at a significantly higher level than the opponents L.A. has defeated of late.
Spurs, Cavs remain on collision course
The teams that entered the week with the second-longest winning streaks in the NBA just happen to be my projected Finals participants, San Antonio and Cleveland. Both carried seven-game surges into action and have a few hurdles to clear before squaring off in a nationally-televised Thursday night showcase. The Spurs already cleared their first in winning their eighth straight by destroying Brooklyn.
Head coach Gregg Popovich has done a masterful job building around Kawhi Leonard while getting LaMarcus Aldridge settled in, accomplishing this without over-working any of the veterans. The Spurs have lost two games out of 21 since December began. Their largest loss of the season came by six points on opening night. Overshadowed by Golden State’s incredible 36-2 start, San Antonio’s dominance has flown under the radar.
Cleveland has lost only once in games that Kyrie Irving has appeared in since his return from a kneecap fracture suffered in Game 1 of the 2015 Finals. Although he’s still working his way back into a rhythm, his mere presence has made LeBron James and Kevin Love more efficient. Tristan Thompson, who will be vital against Aldridge and Tim Duncan, has been impressive defensively and on the boards. Over the past four wins, J.R. Smith, who is going to be the beneficiary of open looks due to the attention everyone else gets, has shot 22-for-42 from 3-point range, averaging 22.5 points per game. He’s got the green light and the Cavs offense is flourishing.
These teams will meet again in Cleveland on Jan. 30, but you can expect this one to be played with a playoff intensity. The Spurs are perfect 22-0 at home this season, which makes this a tremendous opportunity for both teams to send a message to an opponent they’ll be expecting to see come June.
Raptors-Magic goes international
Both Orlando and Toronto will play only one game this week, but they’re already on the clock as ambassadors for the NBA in London before playing at O2 Arena on Thursday.
For Europeans like Orlando’s Nikola Vucevic, Evan Fournier and Mario Hezonja as well as Toronto’s Jonas Valanciunas, it’s an opportunity to play a game on their home continent, but it’s always worth monitoring to see how the teams are handling their roles off the floor in a Global Games setting.
The Raptors have been over to London back in 2011, marking the first time a regular-season game was played in Europe, while a young Orlando team actually has a lot of experience in other countries, playing in Rio de Janeiro this preseason and exhibitions in China and Mexico over the past decade.
Toronto has won and covered in each of its last three games, all on the road. The Raptors have pulled four games ahead of Boston in the Atlantic Division and own a 1-0 edge on the Magic in the season series, having won in Orlando on Nov. 6. They’re playing without small forward DeMarre Carroll, who got his knee scoped last week and is out indefinitely, which means James Johnson and Terrence Ross have gotten extended minutes.
The Magic have been without Elfrid Payton since suffering an ankle contusion on Jan. 2 and are 1-5 in ’16. Orlando has covered only once in its last seven games and has seen a dip in the production of Fournier, once the team’s leading scorer due to multiple nagging injuries as well. After averaging 17.8 points in November, he averaged 11.6 in December and is down to 9.5 through the first six games in January, shooting less than 26 percent from 3-point range.