NBA Betting Roadmap
By Al McMordie
Covers.com
It's been 44 years since the NBA has had two teams in the same season, like Golden State and San Antonio, that have smashed their opponents. One has to go back to 1972, when the Bucks (+11.16 ppg) and Lakers (+12.28) were at a level similar to that of the Spurs (+14.21) and Warriors (+11.15). And, like this season, those two teams were both in the Western Conference, so the "de facto" NBA Championship was in the semi-finals, and won by the Lakers, four games to two. We're still a week away from the first regular season meeting between these two juggernauts, so let's take a look at what is on the horizon this week.
Spread Watch
The San Antonio Spurs are, by most metrics, not only the best team in the league this season, but also the best team "in Vegas." The Spurs have, by a wide margin, the best point differential (+14.21), the best pointspread differential (+4.72), and the best ATS win percentage (.682). To illustrate just how dominant the Spurs have been, consider that the second-best point differential belongs to Golden State, which trails San Antonio by 3.06 ppg. The second-best pointspread differential is owned by Detroit, which has covered the spread by 2.07 ppg, a whopping 2.65 ppg less than San Antonio's margin. And the second-best ATS win percentage is Orlando's .605, significantly less than the Spurs' .682 mark. To further illustrate how special a season San Antonio is having, consider that the Spurs have only lost back-to-back games against the spread once, and that was back on November 18-20, against the Nuggets and Pelicans. This week, San Antonio will play the Suns and Lakers. And an argument can easily be made that the Suns -- and not the 76ers or Lakers -- are currently the NBA's worst team. Phoenix has won just one of its last 14 games, and has been outscored by 13.42 ppg in this stretch. For the season, the Suns have covered just 38% of the time, and have failed to cover the spread by an average of -3.63 ppg. Both of those stats rank dead last in the league! And, lest one think the Spurs might be "overvalued" vs. Phoenix, consider that, since 1991, in the 2nd half of the season, teams have covered 76.1% of the time if they had a total pointspread differential of +6.79 or better (i.e., by how many points a team has covered the spread, relative to its opponent). Also, teams have cashed 65.3% since 1991 in the second-half of the season, if they've covered the spread in 26.8% more of their games than their opponent. Look for the Spurs to rout the Suns on Thursday.
Total Watch
For years, the Memphis Grizzlies have been marketed as "Grit-N-Grind," to reflect their defensive-oriented principles and blue-collar attitude. Indeed, over the previous four seasons, Memphis had allowed 92.9, 89.2, 94.5 and 95.0 ppg. And they went 'under' the total in 55.6% of their games (195-156 'under'). But this season, there's been very little "grit" on Beale Street, and the Grizzlies have seen their defensive average balloon to 98.7 ppg. Memphis also ranks in the bottom half in defensive efficiency. Last week, Memphis played all four of its games 'over' the total, as it gave up 100.2 ppg. This week, the Grizz will play New Orleans, Denver and Minnesota. Each of those three teams ranks in the bottom 10 in defensive efficiency. The game against the Nuggets, especially, looks like a prime game to go 'over' the number as the Nuggets also played all of their games last week 'over' the total.
Injury Watch
On Saturday, the Chicago Bulls announced center Joakim Noah will need surgery to repair his dislocated left shoulder. He's expected to miss the rest of the season. Noah initially injured himself on December 21 against Brooklyn. He returned three weeks later, on January 11, only to get re-injured four days after that vs. Dallas. This is a significant blow for the Bulls. But not just because Noah was averaging 8.8 rebounds a game. It was also widely speculated he would be used as trade bait next month to fetch Chicago additional scoring help. So, with this injury, the Bulls' hopes on that front are dashed. Additionally, Kirk Hinrich was also injured in that Dallas game, and he'll miss Monday's game against the Pistons, at the least. The Bulls are currently on an 0-5 ATS run, and own (along with the Pelicans) the NBA's second-worst ATS win percentage (.384). With games against Detroit (.578 ATS %), Golden State (.600 ATS %), and Boston (.550 ATS %) on deck this week, it could get much worse before it gets better.
Schedule Watch
The Los Angeles Clippers open their week with a big game against Houston, the team which knocked them out of last year's Playoffs. The Clips have already lost the first two games of this regular season vs. Houston, and have dropped five straight to the Rockets dating back to last season's Playoffs. Certainly, Los Angeles will desperately want to win this game, on Monday night. Following that, the Clippers will travel to Cleveland on Thursday, and then play without rest the next night, in New York. That Friday game, at the Knicks, looks to be a potential landmine for the Clippers, and especially if LA comes into that game off back to back wins. Over the past 2+ years, the Clippers are 18-24 ATS when playing without rest, including 5-13 ATS off back-to-back wins.
Three-pointer: Spurs face light week
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com
After surviving a week that began with a road back-to-back at Brooklyn and Detroit, followed by a home dates with Cleveland and Dallas, the Spurs are off until Thursday and face a two-day work week where they’ll have to visit the Suns and Lakers. Entering the week, Phoenix had lost 12 of 13. L.A. has dropped seven of eight.
Can you say bye week?
San Antonio carries an 11-game winning streak into these game where they’ll almost certainly be double-digit road favorite. Even though they’ve got a Monday night visit to Oakland, their first game against the Warriors this season, the rationale that they’ll be looking ahead to the Golden State showdown is a little trite. It’s the NBA, not the NFL, so even if Gregg Popovich chooses to expand his rotation or give guys a night off to reduce wear-and-tear, it will have more to do with the situation that has presented itself due to light competition than anything related to the Warriors.
As a road favorite of 9.5 or more, the Spurs are a perfect 4-0 straight up and against the spread, beating the Nets, Bucks, Timberwolves and 76ers by a combined margin of 128 points, which includes a 129-68 demolition of Philly but also features wins of 25 or more in the three other games. They take care of business against teams they’re expected to dominate. Though they failed to cover at home against the Cavs, San Antonio is 8-3 against the number during its current winning streak and 21-8-1 ATS over the last 30 since Nov. 21. While it’s not quite the run Atlanta went on last year, the Spurs have truly been impressive considering they’ve been favored in every single one of those games.
In fact, San Antonio has laid points in every single game this season except for a season-opening loss at Oklahoma City, which is remarkable in its own right. Look for the Warriors to end that streak, since they’ll likely be favored by at least a 3-spot at Oracle, where it hasn’t lost in 19 outings this season entering its Jan. 22 date with Indiana.
Conversely, the Suns have only been favored once in their last 10 games, while the Lakers have only been favored in three games all season. Point guard Tony Parker has been dealing with a hip issue, so Pop may take a cautious approach this week to ensure his availability for next Monday. Patty Mills would start if that’s the case. Everyone else is healthy and playing well, so fade them at your own risk. The big number the Spurs will be laying will undoubtedly be tempting, but taking points against them hasn’t paid off yet.
Miami not so hot
A Heat team that saw San Antonio in consecutive NBA Finals is obviously far removed from those days with LeBron James back in Cleveland, but they still fancy themselves a title contender when healthy given the collection of talent Pat Riley did manage to keep in South Florida.
After a fairly strong start that has seen Miami lead the Southeast Division for much of the season, they’ve fallen out of the top spot after a Western road swing that saw them go 2-4 and lose Goran Dragic for a few weeks due to a calf injury. The team is considerably banged up and will be back home for just one game (Tuesday vs. Milwaukee) before heading right back out on the road for another five games.
Between Jan. 8-Feb. 5, the Heat will have played 14 of 16 games on the road, likely defining whether the first half of the season that started so promisingly will wind up being a success. Miami is 8-10 straight up thus far in road games.
With Dwyane Wade playing through a shoulder injury, the x-factor is likely to be young guard Tyler Johnson, who must help take pressure off Wade with Dragic and Beno Udrih (neck) both sidelined. Miami’s next road stretch begins Wednesday night at the John Wall-led Wizards and continues Friday against Kyle Lowry and the Raptors.
Key road stretch awaits Indiana
The Pacers have also had a promising first-half of the season thus far, hitting the 41-game mark at 22-19, which is a positive since they transitioned away from the halfcourt style they had grown so accustomed to in parting ways with Roy Hibbert and David West in the offseason.
Paul George has been a dominant force and has warmed up to his new role, but his Pacers have now lost three consecutive games for the fourth time this season and will look to avoid their longest losing stretch of the season on Tuesday night in Phoenix.
Center Ian Mahinmi is attempting to return from an ankle injury and point guard George Hill remains away from the team tending to a personal matter. After playing the Suns, a four-game road swing continues in Golden State and Sacramento, games in which they’ll likely be underdogs.
With Detroit, Boston, Orlando, New York, Washington, Charlotte and Milwaukee all in the hunt for the final few playoff spots in the East, the Pacers are going to have a lot of competition that they’ll look to stay in front of to avoid a final frantic stretch where they’re trying to make the postseason. This week’s West Coast visits could dictate how the next few weeks before the All-Star break play out.