NBA Betting Roadmap
By Al McMordie
Covers.com
There have been 665 games played so far this season, but none has had the importance as Monday night's clash between the last two NBA Champions. Indeed, the season's first match-up between the Warriors and Spurs is arguably the biggest regular season game in the history of the NBA -- at least until the 2nd, 3rd and 4th meetings later this year. It's not only the first time in NBA history that two teams with .850 (or better) win percentages have met this late in a season, but it could also have serious implications for home court advantage in the Playoffs. Of course, there will be 53 other games played this week, so let's see what's on tap.
Spread Watch
The Toronto Raptors have quietly won eight straight games, and have covered seven of those eight (including all four games last week). And their only ATS defeat in this stretch was by a mere 1.5 points, in a 106-103 road win at Orlando. Admittedly, many of Toronto's wins were against soft, Eastern Conference competition. But Sunday's 112-94 blowout of the Los Angeles Clippers -- a team which had won 12 of its previous 14 -- served notice that the Raptors may be ready to challenge LeBron James for Conference supremacy. This week, Toronto will play three home games against the Wizards, Knicks and Pistons, so there's no reason its win streak cannot stretch to 11 games. And its game against New York looks to be a prime spot to step in and play on the white-hot Raptors. Toronto is 6-0 ATS its last six vs. division rivals, and will be playing with revenge from a 111-109 loss to New York back in November.
Total Watch
Alvin Gentry's New Orleans Pelicans seem to be picking up the first-year coach's offense, as they're (finally) moving the ball around, and have broken out to win their last three games by 15+ points (the first time since January 2008 they've accomplished that feat). The Pels have scored 114, 115 and 116 in those three games, and stretched their streak of 'Overs' to five games. On Monday, New Orleans will welcome the defensively-challenged Houston Rockets to the Smoothie King Center. Later this week, both Sacramento and Brooklyn will pay visits. None of New Orleans' opponents this week rate in the upper half of the league's best defenses, while Houston (26th) and Brooklyn (27th), in particular, are among the absolute worst in adjusted defensive efficiency. Given that 14 of New Orleans' last 17 meetings with Brooklyn have gone 'Over' the total, I look for a high-scoring game between those two teams on Saturday.
Injury Watch
The San Antonio Spurs will be without Tim Duncan for Monday's game at Golden State, and possibly their games later this week, at home vs. Houston, and at Cleveland. Though the "Big Fundamental" is averaging career lows in minutes (26), points (8.86) and rebounds (7.54), it's easy to overlook just how valuable he is -- especially on the defensive end. Indeed, Duncan is really the "quarterback" of their league-best defense, as he works the back line, and communicates to his teammates what's going on. The fact that he's currently ranked #1 (of 431 players) in Defensive Real Plus-Minus illustrates just how effective he remains, at 39-years-old. Certainly, the betting markets appreciate his value. For Monday's Spurs/Warriors game, the pointspread moved from Golden State -3 to Golden State -4.5 upon the announcement that Duncan would not play. San Antonio will likely start David West until Duncan returns. And West has been superb in his first season with the Spurs. He's shooting a career-best 56.3% from the field, and is currently ranked #44 (of 431) in RPM, and #60 (of 333) in PER.
Schedule Watch
The Charlotte Hornets have the biggest home/road dichotomy in the league, in terms of win percentage. At home, the Hornets are 16-8, but they've won just five of 20 games away from "The Hive." This week, the Hornets will embark on a 4-game road trip, with stops at the Kings, Jazz, Blazers and Clippers. Monday's game at Sacramento looks particularly troublesome, as the Kings are on a 5-game SU/ATS win streak (coinciding with the insertion of Willie Cauley-Stein into the starting lineup), including impressive upsets of the Jazz and Clippers on the road. And Sacramento will be playing with revenge from a 127-122 overtime loss at Charlotte, in which they blew a 22-point lead. Even worse for Charlotte: the Kings have turned around their league-worst defense (107.1 ppg), and have held their last four opponents under 42% FG shooting, and their last three foes under 100 points. As the Hornets are 5-16 SU and 5-15-1 ATS this season when they don't shoot better than 42%, that doesn't bode well for Steve Clifford's crew on Monday.
Three-pointer: Kidd back with Bucks
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com
Milwaukee will get its leader back on Tuesday, which means the next few weeks prior to the All-Star break are going to be vital for perhaps the Eastern Conference’s biggest underachievers.
The Bucks, considered to be a team on the rise after finishing last season at .500 and taking a couple of games off the Bulls in the playoffs, opened the season 0-3 and were 11-18 when Jason Kidd took his leave on Dec. 21 to undergo hip surgery, getting a metal prosthesis inserted to ease his stiffness and pain.
"I think people from the outside thought it was just going to be automatic and we'd pick up from last year," Kidd told the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. "Expectations were a lot higher. But also, we had new pieces, with Jabari (Parker) being one of them, and Moose (Greg Monroe). Our defense did take a step back. Sometimes, you have to get games under your belt and see the good and bad and hopefully make the adjustments. As you can see, the guys are starting to play as a team."
Assistant Joe Prunty fared slightly better than Kidd upon taking over on an interim basis, but Saturday night’s 116-89 loss in New Orleans dropped the Bucks to 8-9 (10-7 ATS) under his guidance. Once again, the Bucks failed to defend the 3-point line and went into lulls offensively. Kidd has expressed his displeasure with the team’s defense and will look to place more of an emphasis on that end of the floor upon his return against Orlando. The under prevailed in six of Milwaukee’s 11 wins when Kidd was at the helm, so look for his return to be a major catalyst in the team picking up its attention to detail at that end of the floor.
Milwaukee gave up 100 or more points in 13 of the 17 games where Prunty filled in. The situation has been so poor that 116 scored by the Pelicans over the weekend ranked as only the fourth-highest total given up during his stint. Houston and New Orleans combined for 32 3-pointers in handing the Bucks their last two loss.
Michael Carter-Williams was expected to lead the charge in taking a step forward in his own development, but he’s been wildly inconsistent. Having Kidd back can only aid his development. He’s averaged 11.3 points in January, but comes off his best shooting game of the season, going 9-for-12 in New Orleans. If the Bucks can get him going, they will have a decent shot at righting the ship and coming through on their short-term goal.
"We would like to finish on a high note before the (All-Star) break and then come back after the break ready to make a push," Kidd said.
Following Tuesday’s home date with Orlando, Milwaukee faces a back-to-back on Thursday and Friday, visiting Memphis and returning home to face injury-riddled Miami. The Bucks open February on the West Coast for games at Sacramento, Portland and Utah, a stretch that will be followed up by a few days off and home dates with the Celtics and Wizards.
Clips taking cautious approach with Griffin
L.A. power forward Blake Grifffin was expected to be back in action this past weekend, or at the very least, ready to go as the Clips closed out a five-game Eastern road swing. Neither happened.
Griffin was sent home to L.A. despite the organization stressing that the change in plans was not setback-related. He won’t play in stops at Indiana and Atlanta and was considered doubtful for a meeting with the Lakers on Jan. 29. After a fight with a member of the team's equipment staff, he's now expected to be out another 4-6 weeks.
Griffin hasn’t played since posting a Christmas night double-double in helping rout the Lakers, suffering a partially torn tendon in his left quad. The Clippers won the first nine games without him, but enter the week with losses in three of their last five as his absence has begun to catch up to them. Sunday’s 112-94 loss in Toronto was the team’s worst of the season, so it’s going to be interesting to see how Doc Rivers prepares his team to bounce back as they wrap up the road trip with a Tuesday-Wednesday back-to-back against the Pacers and Hawks. Both teams have winning records, which is of importance since the Clippers haven’t seen many teams with more wins than losses throughout Griffin’s absence. L.A. is just 2-2 against teams over .500 without their star power forward.
Given the stiff competition for reserve spots in the West, Griffin’s run of five consecutive All-Star nods will certainly end on Thursday despite averages of 23.2 points, 8.7 rebounds and 5.0 assists over 30 games.
Warriors/Spurs blowout fallout
When it was all over, Gregg Popovich had jokes.
"We almost got them," said the Spurs coach following a 120-90 blowout loss at Golden State. "My opening comment here will be, I'm just glad my general manager wasn't in the locker room, because it might have gotten me fired."
San Antonio fields the team least likely to let a loss like the one suffered on Monday night fester. The 30-point deficit was the largest the Spurs have lost by since 2012, when they fell in Portland by 40. The Warriors shot over 50 percent, won every quarter and out-rebounded San Antonio.
Since the Spurs had won 13 consecutive games prior to the demolition in Oakland, they’ve already been installed as a double-digit favorite against Houston on Wednesday. They’re 17-6-1 at home against the spread and are 24-0 overall, so you can expect they’ll be at their best against the Rockets. San Antonio hasn’t lost consecutive games all season and has covered the spread after every setback, winning by double-digits each time.
The Warriors, now 21-0 at home, have won four straight and are a whopping 15.5-point favorite against Dallas. The Mavericks handed Golden State its worst loss of the season by a 114-91 count on Dec. 30. The teams will play twice more in March, which will give us an opportunity to see whether the lopsided setback was a fluke or the beginning of an interesting trend. The over is 7-3 in the Warriors last 10 games. It’s also 4-0 of late for the Mavs.