NBA Betting Roadmap
By Al McMordie
Covers.com
In a week in which there were two meetings among the top three contenders for the Larry O'Brien Trophy, the games were overshadowed by a development off the court. Los Angeles Clippers forward Blake Griffin decided to further sabotage his team's chances by breaking his hand on a team equipment manager's face. Of course, in the sports business, off-court drama often fuels the industry more than the games, themselves. Still, a lot is happening ON the court, so let's take a look.
Spread Watch
It is true that first impressions die hard. And, after getting embarrassed by the Chicago Bulls in coach Tyronn Lue's first game, many might have assumed that the firing of David Blatt was ill-advised. Some even went further and proclaimed that Lue should not be allowed to coach in this year's All-Star Game. But Lue's Cavaliers rebounded off that Chicago loss to win their next four games (and cover their last three), including a 117-103 beatdown of the San Antonio Spurs. Lue wants his team to play at a much faster pace than did Blatt, and Cleveland has scored 114+ points in each of the last four games. Even more impressive is the fact that the Cavaliers' "Big Three" of LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love have all been important cogs in a more balanced offense. In Cleveland's last two wins (over the Spurs and Pistons), all three players reached the 20-point plateau. This week, the Cavs will play road games at Indiana and Charlotte, before coming back home to take on Boston and New Orleans. And, should Cleveland win its first two games this week, Lue would surpass Steve Kerr for the best win percentage of any coach in NBA history! Certainly, Monday's game at Indiana will be a tough test (the Pacers have covered four straight vs. the Cavs), but the upcoming schedule is not daunting. If Lue's men can get out of Indiana with a win, then I would expect Cleveland to have an 11-game win streak going into its game at Oklahoma City on February 21.
Total Watch
In our last two weekly articles, I highlighted the Memphis Grizzlies and New Orleans Pelicans, as both had started to play a lot of games 'Over' the total. And each team has continued on that front. New Orleans has played its last eight games 'Over,' while Memphis has done the trick in nine of its last 10 games. Interestingly, a team I've yet to focus on this season is the defensively-challenged Houston Rockets. But I cannot ignore James Harden & Co. any longer. Houston has played 16 of its last 19 games 'Over' the total, including its last five. And in those last five games, Houston's allowed an average of 116.8 ppg. For the season, the Rockets' defense is the worst, by far, of any team with a .500 (or better) record. Houston ranks #28 in defensive efficiency. In comparison, the next-worst team, with a .500 (or better) record, is Memphis, which ranks #17. On Saturday, Houston will host the Portland Trail Blazers. And, given that 14 of the previous 17 meetings have sailed 'Over' the total (including eight of nine at the Toyota Center), we could see yet another high-scoring affair.
Injury Watch
Is any team more disliked than the Los Angeles Clippers? If were talking about the feelings of those employed within the NBA, then surely not. Of course, fans will always hate successful teams like the Lakers, Celtics, Spurs, Heat, Bulls, etc. because those teams have stood in the way of less successful franchises in the Playoffs. But the Clippers are hated not for their success (as there's been none), but for the way they carry themselves. Indeed, the one thing that's rubbed league insiders the wrong way is how much they whine and act like babies on the court. Their sense of entitlement is off-the-charts, especially for a team which has never won anything. But over the last seven months, it's been the off-court turmoil, which has cemented the franchise as the most unpopular. First, there was the soap opera drama of DeAndre Jordan's free agency. Jordan agreed to sign with the Dallas Mavericks, but he reneged on his promise and returned to the Clippers. Then, this past week, their 6'10", 250-pound star forward Blake Griffin beat up a 5'8" equipment manager, and broke his hand in the process. Griffin was scheduled to play this week after rehabbing a quad injury sustained on December 25, but he now will be sidelined until late March. So his team's already-dwindling Championship hopes are hampered further. The good news for Los Angeles is that it's been playing well in his absence. Since Christmas, the Clippers are 15-3 straight-up and 13-5 ATS (though mainly against soft competition). But the bad news is that Griffin will miss LA's three most important home games in the season's second half: Spurs (Feb. 18), Warriors (Feb. 20) and Thunder (Mar. 2). Without Griffin, the Clips have realized that their games against the NBA's lightweights are 'must-wins,' and they've generally taken care of business. This week, LA will play Minnesota (3-19 SU their last 22), Orlando (2-12 SU their last 14), and Miami (5-7 SU last 12), so the opportunity to pick up three wins is very good. I especially like their chances to cover against the T-Wolves, as the Clippers have won 14 straight in the series (8-5-1 ATS). Even worse for the T-Wolves: they'll be unrested, and playing their third game in four nights, while the Clippers will have had the previous two days off.
Schedule Watch
The San Antonio Spurs have been unbeatable at home this season. They're 25-0 straight-up and 17-7-1 ATS. But away from the Alamo City has been a different story. The Spurs are a mortal 14-8 SU and 13-9 ATS, including 6-7 SU/ATS vs. non-losing teams, and 0-3 ATS their last three, overall. This week, San Antonio will travel to Dallas on Friday. The Mavericks have controlled the series at home, of late, as they're 4-1 SU and ATS vs. their bitter rivals. Dallas will be playing with revenge from a 29-point loss less than three weeks ago, in San Antonio. And the Mavs are 26-15-1 ATS when playing with revenge from a 20-point (or worse) defeat. Don't be surprised if Dallas delivers some payback on Friday night.
Heat ride out wild month
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com
January was a wild roller-coaster of a month for a number of Eastern Conference teams. Cleveland won six straight, lost two of three and then fired David Blatt. New coach Tyronn Lue closed a 6-1 run in style with Saturday night’s 117-103 rout of the Spurs. Toronto lost two of its first three, then finished the month with 11 consecutive victories, a streak that currently ranks as the NBA’s best. The Bulls won their first four, lost the next three and then basically alternated wins and losses the rest of the way.
All of those sound like wild rides, but if you really like twists, turns and walking off with your legs wobbly and your lunch threatening to make a reappearance, hope you were on the Miami Heat bandwagon. Not only did starters Dwyane Wade, Goran Dragic, Hassan Whiteside and Luol Deng all miss games, they had multiple road trips of five games or more to navigate. After opening January with three straight wins, they lost eight of 10 and closed out with four consecutive victories.
Sunday’s 105-87 win over Atlanta, the fifth straight game they played with Amar’e Stoudemire filling at center for Whiteside, helped the Heat pass the Hawks by a half-game for first place in the Southeast Division. Considering all the drama they’ve been through, from veiled references to Whiteside being selfish to the inability of backups Tyler Johnson and Beno Udrih to help the offense flow the way Dragic has, it’s fairly remarkable that the Heat have been able to not only stay afloat, but surge back ahead in a competitive division.
Miami will open February right back out on the road, which is nothing new since it has only played at American Airlines Arena twice since Jan. 8. The Heat won’t be back home until Feb. 7, hosting the Clippers and Spurs two nights later before the All-Star break arrives.
This week’s challenges will take the Heat to Houston, Dallas and division rival Charlotte, teams with a combined home record of 46-28. Miami is 11-12 on the road thus far, but did put together wins in Chicago, Brooklyn and Milwaukee to close its last excursion on a high note.
Johnson has been scheduled to undergo shoulder surgery, which likely means he’ll be out until very late in the regular season. There’s no timetable for Whiteside’s return from a nagging hip injury, but the Heat haven’t missed a player averaged 12.3 points, 11.2 rebounds and an NBA-best 3.9 blocked shots per game, which has fueled speculation that they may look to move him prior to the trade deadline since he’ll be seeking a maximum contract this offseason. Rest assured, Miami’s roller-coaster ride will likely have a few more twists before the month is up.
Rockets crashing into mediocrity
At the 50-game mark a season ago, Houston was 35-15. Two seasons ago, the first in which James Harden and Dwight Howard joined forces, the Rockets went 33-17. This season, they’re 25-25 as the Heat come into town on Tuesday to begin a pre-All-Star stretch that also features a home-and-home against Portland and road games at Phoenix and Golden State.
The frustration is certainly bubbling over. Howard has been ejected in consecutive games, accumulating four technical fouls that the team is hoping the league will look at and potentially rescind. The NBA suspended Howard for Tuesday's matchup with Miami for striking the arm of a game official and fined head coach J.B. Bickerstaff$10,000 for criticizing refs.
“The last two games have been kind of tough for this ballclub,” the recently reacquired Josh Smith told ESPN Houston. “We felt like we haven’t gotten a fair whistle, but we just got to move forward and focus on having a must-win game on Tuesday.”
Must-win? In February? That slip tells you the Rockets are certainly feeling the strain of falling below everyone’s expectations. Between Howard’s injury struggles and Harden’s defensive miscues, Houston’s stars haven’t been their best. Kevin McHale already paid with his job, leaving Bickerstaff a difficult situation to work with in his first time in the head chair.
Must-win means that no matter what happens without Howard in the Heat game, you can count on the Rockets to play with a sense of urgency Thursday night in Phoenix. The Suns just fired a coach themselves, relieving Jeff Hornacek of his duties as they shop pieces like Markieff Morris around the league. If Houston can’t find a way to pick up a win there, it might be time for a major move of their own. Following Saturday night’s home date with the Trail Blazers, the Rockets begin a stretch where they close out the month with six of seven on the road. The only home date is against the Spurs. Following a home date to open March, Houston departs on a five-game East Coast swing. Unless they get matters figured out quickly, things could get ugly.
Wonderful Warriors face light week
After Wednesday night’s stop in Washington, D.C., Golden State closes a stretch of 12 road games in 19 outings from Dec. 30-Feb. 3. Considered a major hurdle in the Warriors’ pursuit of the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls NBA-best 72-10 record, the Dubs have gone 15-3 and are 44-4 overall.
At the 48-game mark in ’96, the Bulls were 43-5, having already come out of the All-Star break that season. They progressed to 50-6 by March and won 54 games before they lost their seventh. Following the Wizards game, the Warriors only play three more times before the upcoming All-Star break. They get a few days off before Saturday night’s showcase game against Oklahoma City, next hosting Houston on Tuesday. They’ll head to the break off a Feb. 10 visit to slumping Phoenix.
Expect Golden State to be favored in every game they play in between now and a Feb. 27 visit to Oklahoma City. They’ll open action after All-Star in Portland, part of a six-game road swing that ends against the Thunder and also includes dates with the Clippers, Hawks, Heat and Magic. There are a couple of trouble spots where they could slip up if they’re not sharp, but the Warriors have enjoyed terrific health thus far and should be formidable if that continues going forward.
To appreciate the monumental challenge they’ll face in looking to break Chicago’s record, consider that the Bulls had five separate winning streaks of at least five games following the All-Star break. They suffered their last three losses of the season by a single point. Steve Kerr, who played all 82 games and shot a team-best 52 percent from 3-point range, will have that experience to lean on as he attempts to coach the Warriors to greatness. He knows that Golden State will wear a special kind of target on its back over the next 30-plus.