NBA Betting Roadmap
By Al McMordie
Covers.com
With the NFL's Super Bowl now in the rear view mirror, the NBA takes center stage on the American sports landscape. This week, though, will be an abbreviated one, with just 58 games on the schedule, as the league heads into the All-Star break. And there are few, if any, marquee match-ups in the coming days. The best of the lot is the Miami/San Antonio tilt on Tuesday, though the game between Kobe Bryant's Lakers and Le Bron James' Cavaliers also merits attention. Let's take a look at some of the goings-on around the NBA, so we can fatten our wallets.
Spread Watch
The Denver Nuggets are on a 7-game pointspread win streak. And it's the fifth time this season that a team has accomplished that feat. The first four times all resulted in an ATS loss, which is not surprising, as teams on exactly a 7-game ATS win streak are a money-burning 45.5% ATS since 1990. This week, the Nuggets will play at Brooklyn, on Monday night, and then play at Detroit, on Wednesday, before going on holiday. Denver's been installed as a road favorite at Brooklyn, which I feel is too high a tariff for a team which has won just 10 road games this season. Indeed, this will be just the second time all season the Nuggets have been a road favorite. The first time was at Philly, in early December, and the Nuggets pushed the 3-point spread, in a 108-105 victory. Even worse for the Nuggets: they're 0-3 SU/ATS the last three meetings, and have covered just 14 of the last 40 games between these two teams (6-14 ATS on the road). I look for Denver's ATS win streak to come to a halt on Monday.
Totals Watch
San Antonio has the league's best defense, but has been playing without its defensive stalwart, Tim Duncan, for the last seven games. When it was announced that Duncan would miss the much-anticipated game at Golden State, on January 25, because of a sore knee, some assumed coach Gregg Popovich was trying to cloak his intention to test out some unusual lineups against the Warriors. Of course, nothing worked that night, and the Spurs gave up a season-high 120 points. Since then, the Spurs have gone 'under' the total in just one of their six games. Not having Duncan on the floor clearly hurts. Going into the game at Golden State, the Spurs had given up just 89.7 ppg. But with Duncan sidelined over the last two weeks, the Spurs have surrendered 102.4 ppg. It's possible that Duncan may return prior to the All-Star break, as he's resumed participating in 3-on-3 scrimmages with the team. However, if Popovich chooses to keep him in street clothes, then Wednesday's game against the Magic has all the earmarks of another high-scoring contest, as 12 of the last 17 between these two teams have flown 'Over' the number.
Injury Watch
Manu Ginobili suffered a cringeworthy injury last Wednesday vs. New Orleans. With just over two minutes remaining, the Pelicans' Ryan Anderson kneed Ginobili in the groin. Normally, players are able to shake off such contact. But Manu absorbed such force, a surgical procedure was required the following day to relieve swelling in his testicles. Ginobili has been terrific this season (19.31 PER), so his absence over the next six weeks will no doubt be felt by his team. This season, San Antonio is 28-14-1 ATS with him on the court, but a pedestrian 4-4 ATS with him not in the lineup. Both of San Antonio's opponents this week (Miami, Orlando) have been playing decent basketball. The Heat have covered six of eight, while the Magic have covered four of five. And both have played well this season as home underdogs (Miami 2-1 ATS; Orlando 9-4 ATS). Though San Antonio has generally played well (75-34 SU; 57-48 ATS) on its "Rodeo Road Trip" -- its annual trek which coincides with the San Antonio Stock Show and Rodeo -- I would be surprised if it was able to start its trip with two SU/ATS wins, without Ginobili in the lineup.
Schedule Watch
This season, not only is Golden State destroying teams on the court (46-4 SU; 31-18-1 ATS), but it also seems to be having an effect on its opponents before they even play. And that's because teams are severely under-performing in the game immediately prior to playing the Warriors -- perhaps because they're looking ahead to the match-up against the NBA Champions. This year, teams are a dismal 16-34 ATS in this situation. On Monday, the Suns could fall victim to this scheduling spot, as they'll host the Thunder prior to welcoming the Warriors to Talking Stick Resort Arena two days later. With OKC in an ornery mood following a loss at Golden State this past Saturday (OKC's 128-86 ATS in the regular season off a loss since Nov. 22, 2008), it could get ugly for Phoenix.
Three-pointer: Bulls avoid disaster
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com
The Bulls came face-to-face with their mortality this season as Jimmy Butler writhed around in pain in Denver over the weekend, ultimately being wheeled off to the locker room to await on MRI on his left knee.
No, Chicago wouldn’t have been booted from the NBA or immediately forfeited the remaining games on their schedule, but as far as any legitimate playoff aspirations are concerned, those would’ve realistically ceased to exist.
“Sure, it’s scary,” head coach Fred Hoiberg told reporters. “He took off. He heard a pop. You expect the worst when you hear that. It happened on the takeoff. I saw the film of it and it didn’t bend funny. But anytime the ligaments are intact, it’s a relief.”
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Fortunately, Butler’s MRI indicated no structural damage, just a strain of the soft tissue around the knee. Although he’ll probably miss this week’s two games and may or may not play in the All-Star Game, Chicago is likely to have its leading scorer and top defender back when it returns to action on Feb. 18 at Cleveland.
After looking like the top contender to take down the Cavs and ascend to the Eastern Conference throne as recently as Jan. 7, a disastrous last 30 days have the Bulls fighting simply to make the playoffs. Since beating Boston that night, Chicago is 5-12 in its last 17 entering Wednesday’s game at Atlanta. They were blown out Monday in Charlotte on the final leg of a seven-game road trip that closed out a stretch of 10 straight games in a different arenas.
A loss against the Hawks would drop the Bulls to just two games above .500, their worst mark since they fell to 4-3 on Nov. 7. Entering the week, only the Knicks and Nets have had worst runs in the East over the last 10 games.
Fortunately, since Butler received good news about his knee, the Bulls should be able to turn things around in a season that has already seen Joakim Noah be lost for the duration after shoulder surgery and Nikola Mirotic sidelined by an appendectomy to remove a hematoma. Kirk Hinrich is finally playing regularly again and Mike Dunleavy just returned, but Chicago is still quite short-handed and likely drained. Few teams need the All-Star break more.
One positive is that Derrick Rose has found his legs and could be set to be a force down the stretch. Despite the fact the Bulls have been losing, Rose has averaged 17.6 points over the last 16 games and is definitely being more aggressive. He sat out the Hornets loss with general soreness, but if Rose can remain on an upward trend, Butler returns and Pau Gasol continues playing at a high level, then Chicago’s Big Three can be as formidable as Cleveland’s is.
The Bulls have dodged a bullet in spite of their current slump, but you shouldn’t count them out. There are a lot of quality veterans on the roster who could respond under first-year coach Fred Hoiberg’s looser style. A lot hinges on Butler picking up where he left off. He’s the LeBron in the equation. If you’ve watched his season, the discrepancy between the two is nowhere near as vast as one would think.
Incidentally, if Butler does need an injury replacement for Sunday, there isn’t a better candidate than Gasol, who has averaged 17.0 points and 10.9 rebounds in giving the franchise a consistent presence inside.
Knicks fire Fisher, forge ahead
Early Monday, the Knicks let go of Derek Fisher.
In the second season of a relatively large contract, Fisher being fired certainly came as a surprise, one of those moves that can only truly be explained if we could get in Phil Jackson’s head and decipher what he’s really thinking.
Jackson, who settled on Fisher after Steve Kerr rebuffed him to stay closer to home and coach the Golden State Warriors, said all the right things in discussing the move. He called Fisher a hard worker, essentially giving him his public blessing for future employment, but felt a change was necessary. Considering Fisher has had his dirty laundry aired due to his fight with Matt Barnes over being involved with his ex-wife, Jackson’s approval is important, but actions speak louder than words. If Knick players lost respect for him as part of tuning him out in his first coaching stint, it’s going to require the right opportunity for him to get his next shot.
Fisher’s Knicks tenure ends after five consecutive losses and a 1-9 mark (2-8 ATS) over his last 10 games. New York is 23-31 entering the final game before the All-Star break, a home date against the Wizards on Tuesday, five games behind in the playoff chase.
While Jackson’s actions are a tad drastic, promoting trusted lieutenant Kurt Rambis gives the Knicks an opportunity to have renewed faith entering the final two months. It would be hard to believe that Carmelo Anthony wasn’t consulted, which tells you that Fisher had to play a part in his dismissal beyond results. New York plays at Brooklyn on Feb. 19 to open the season’s “second half.”
The appointment of Rambis shouldn’t come as a surprise since he was the team’s associate head coach, but it’s definitely worth noting that he’s only won 28 percent of his games in the head seat, going 24-13 in L.A. way back in 1998-99 as interim Lakers coach and 32-132 at Minnesota from 2009-11. The Timberwolves recorded a pair of last-place finishes under his watch, and while he did have a disparity in talent to overcome, he certainly didn’t help his own cause strategically.
The Knicks have seen the under prevail in their games in eight of the last 10, but that’s a testament to their offensive inefficiency, not a nod to an improved defense. Since they come out of the All-Star break playing in Brooklyn, the Knicks are currently in a stretch where they’re playing 18 of 24 games in New York from Jan. 10 to March 1. Thus far, they’re 5-11, and you get the sense that if they’re not able to take advantage when the season starts back up, they’re not going to be a factor down the stretch. Making matters worse, New York’s first-round pick will end up in Toronto or Denver this season due to previous trades.
New East Beasts
At the opposite end of the spectrum from the woeful Knicks, Atlantic Division neighbors Toronto and Boston have ascended to No. 2 and No. 3 in the Eastern Conference, going 9-1 over the last 10 games. The Raptors and Celtics join the Cavs as the only teams in the East with records above .500 at home and on the road. Since Golden State's Kerr missed nearly half the season, it would appear the Coach of the Year race will be wide open and is likely to include the Raptors’ Dwane Casey and the Celtics’ Brad Stevens.
Toronto (10-5 ATS L15) will play host to the NBA All-Star Game this coming weekend, so the team will already be the center of the basketball universe, but if the Raptors can take care of business as a road favorite in Minnesota on Wednesday, they’ll enter the break with wins in 15 of 16 games. Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan are looking like the conference’s top backcourt, behind only Golden State’s Splash Brothers in the league’s hierarchy. The Raps are home at the Air Canada Centre for 10 of the first 13 coming out of the All-Star break, giving them an opportunity to strengthen their hold on the second spot and make a run at Cleveland for the top seed and homecourt advantage.
Boston closes in Milwaukee on Tuesday and back home for a date with the Clippers on Wednesday. The Celtics have covered eight of 10 during the 9-1 run they take into Bradley Center. Isaiah Thomas and Avery Bradley have been excellent as a backcourt combination that is really making Stevens look smart.