NBA Betting: Totals don't always follow form
By: Stephen Nover
Thanks to Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol, the Los Angeles Lakers are the sixth-highest scoring team in the NBA.
When it comes to totals, though, the Lakers rank among the three-best ‘under’ teams. The ‘under’ has cashed in 22 of the Lakers’ first 36 games.
The Lakers have gone ‘under’ in 19 of their past 25 games. They are 11-4 ‘under’ in their last 15 road contests and have been ‘under’ in eight of their past 10 home matchups even though Bryant is the fourth-leading scorer at 25.1 points a game.
Perceptions can prove false when studying ‘over/under’ trends with the NBA regular-season now just past the 40 percent completed stage.
New Orleans’ Chris Paul is in the argument for best point guard in the league. Yet the Hornets are the No. 1 ‘under’ team going below the total in 25 of their first 36 games for 69 percent.
The Hornets have been a particularly strong ‘under’ team on the road with the ‘under’ cashing 17 of the past 22 times.
The San Antonio Spurs have been known for great defense under Gregg Popovich. Yet the Spurs are one of the top ‘over’ teams with a 20-15 mark.
One trend to note with San Antonio is the ‘over’ cashing 10 of the last 11 times the Spurs have played on the road versus a foe with a winning home mark.
Some ‘over/under’ trends do make sense.
Oklahoma City’s Kevin Durant currently leads the league in scoring at 27.9 points a game. The Thunder are the top ‘over’ team going above the total in 23 of their first 37 matchups.
The ‘over’ is 18-8 in Oklahoma City’s last 26 games versus Western Conference opponents.
Golden State is scoring fewer points with the coaching change from Don Nelson to Keith Smart. This has been especially prevalent during its road games.
The Warriors have been held to less than 97 points in six of their last nine road contests. The ‘under’ is 34-17-1 in the Warriors’ last 52 away matchups.
The Indiana Pacers are another surprising ‘under’ team. Indiana rated 23rd in defense last season. This season the Pacers are 13th in scoring defense and fourth in defensive field goal percentage.
The Pacers are averaging 96.8 points per game, down four points on average per game from last season. This caught the oddsmaker off guard as the ‘under’ is 23-9 in the Pacers’ first 32 games.
The Hornets, Pacers and Lakers have been the top three ‘under’ teams with Atlanta fourth going below the total in 22 of its first 38 games.
Here are some other noteworthy ‘under’ trends:
* Washington, breaking in several new players, has gone ‘under’ in 11 of its last 12 games.
* Milwaukee, minus injured point guard Brandon Jennings, has been ‘under’ in 10 of its last 14 home contests.
* Chicago has gone ‘under’ in 10 of its last 14 games making the transition to first-year head coach Tom Thibodeau, a defensive guru.
* Charlotte switched coaches going from Larry Brown, a defensive-minded coach who preferred a half-court style, to Paul Silas, who has a quick pace, up-tempo philosophy.
* The Bobcats, though, still have gone ‘under’ in six of their last eight games. The ‘under’ is 23-10-1 the last 34 times the Bobcats have been underdogs.
* It’s easy to think offense when the Miami Heat comes up in conversation. But even with LeBron James, Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh, the Heat have gone ‘under’ in seven of their last eight road contests.
* Portland has been an ‘under’ team lately, too, when on the road cashing seven of the last 10 times.
* Houston has been a strong ‘under’ team in a favorite’s role. The ‘under’ has cashed 14 of the past 21 times when the Rockets have been ‘chalk.”