NBA betting totals level in early going
By: Willie Bee
When it comes to choosing a hotel to stay at there's an old adage that is still true today: Don't get sucked in by the lobby. The 2010-11 NBA season is roughly in the lobby stage right now with about 10 percent of regular season games in the books.
Exactly 1,000 regular season games remain on the schedule, and that presents a lot of opportunity for early trends to do a 180. A key injury here or there will affect the standings and the betting odds. One blockbuster trade next January or February can turn a team from a simple contender into the favorite overnight. Heck, we haven't even had the first arrest for guns/drugs/both.
Here's a quick look at a few things we've seen that bear watching, a couple of trends plus some of this weekend's action.
Hornets on 82-0 pace
Forget about the fact that New Orleans is 7-0 straight up. In the end the team isn't going to even come close to the 72-10 mark the '95-'96 Bulls pulled off, even a 62-win season is stretching it.
Still, the Hornets' 7-0 start to the season against the spread is worth keeping an eye on in the short- and long-term. New Orleans' latest double triumph came Tuesday at home in a 101-82 thumping of the Clippers. The Hornets were 9½-point favorites and featured six players in double figures on the scoreboard, paced by Willie Green's 19 off the bench.
The injury to Chris Paul last season showed how easy a team like New Orleans can go from playoff hopeful to the bottom of its division. Paul missed 37 games and wasn't 100 percent for some of the 45 he did play. The Hornets sunk to the bottom of the Southwest Division and posted a rather puny 11-19 record against the Eastern Conference which was nowhere near as deep and strong as the Western Conference.
Next up for the Hornets is a Saturday matchup with the Portland Trail Blazers (6-3 SU, 5-3-1 ATS) who begin the weekend atop the Northwest Division by the slimmest of margins.
The king and his court
So what's more surprising, New Orleans' 7-0 start or the Heat scuffling along at 5-4 despite their wealth of talent?
Miami players might say it's their own struggles since they've seen firsthand that the Hornets are serious. New Orleans took down LeBron James and his pals about a week ago, 96-93, with the Heat 6½-point road chalk. That loss snapped a four-game winning run, SU & ATS, and Miami heads into this weekend on a four-game slide versus the number after dropping their second game of the season to the Celtics on Thursday. Boston built an early lead as 7½-point underdogs before cruising to the 112-107 win.
Miami entered the campaign with a big target on its back, and that has certainly played into some of the losses on the court as well as the 4-5 record at the window. The Heat do have an easier five-game string on their upcoming schedule with games against the Raptors, Suns, Bobcats, Grizzlies and Pacers. First up is a Saturday date in Miami against Toronto with the homestand continuing next Wednesday and Friday versus Phoenix and Charlotte respectively.
Comedy Central (Division)
There's parity, and then there's parody. The Central Division seems to be a bit of both.
The only thing in this group that we've learned is that the Detroit Pistons are bad and appear to be the only team incapable of winning the division title. At 2-6, at least the Pistons are finding ways to help their backers with a 5-3 spread mark.
Chicago enters the weekend as the only squad in the group above .500. The Bulls are 4-3, SU & ATS, and have a Saturday tilt on their own court against the Washington Wizards. Indiana (3-3, 3-3), Cleveland (4-4, 4-4) and Milwaukee (4-5, 5-4) fill in between Chicago at the top and Detroit on bottom.
NBA betting totals just about level
Forget following either just the 'over' or just the 'under' to date. Totals through the first 230 games have gone 117-113 for the low side. Five of the 30 teams have split their marks 50-50 in the early going.
The best bet for 'over' backers has been the Oklahoma City Thunder who are 6-1 to the high side. It's not because of Kevin Durant finding the net a lot, as you might think. Oklahoma City is 22nd in the NBA in scoring defense at 103.9 points per game.
New Orleans has provided the most green for 'under' bettors with a 6-1 record. The Hornets rank first in scoring defense at 90.1 PPG. In case you were wondering, the Hornets and Thunder don't face each other until the end of this month in New Orleans (Nov. 29).