NBA Central Division Preview and Win Total Picks
By JAMES BISSON
The Central takes a huge hit in talent by losing LeBron James to the Miami Heat. The King’s exodus shakes up the entire division, leaving the Bulls and Bucks to battle for the top spot while the Cavs, Pacers and Pistons seem lost in basketball limbo.
Chicago Bulls
2009-10 record: 41-41 straight up, 42-38-2 against the spread
2010-11 season win total: 46.5
With LeBron James taking his circus to South Beach, the Bulls become the de facto team to beat in the Central Division. Chicago didn't make the offseason splash it was looking for, failing to lure either James or Dwyane Wade to town. It did, however, land a star power forward in Carlos Boozer to complement a talented young core that includes electrifying point guard Derrick Rose and rebounding machine Joakim Noah.
Boozer will begin the season on the injured list with a broken pinkie finger. When he returns, he'll be expected to contribute plenty to a team that finished as the top rebounding unit in the NBA last season but finished a dismal 24th in scoring.
The Bulls fared well against the spread, but may struggle to repeat that performance in 2010-11 with the team facing greater expectations. That said, they're still the best of a subpar bunch and if they can survive an opening month without Boozer, a 50-win season is clearly within reach.
Pick: Over
Milwaukee Bucks
2009-10 record: 46-36 SU, 52-28-2 ATS
2010-11 season win total: 42.5
The Bucks surprised everyone, especially oddsmakers, with a 46-victory performance in a season when most experts chose them to finish in or near the Central basement. Milwaukee dominated ATS from start to finish in 2009-10 and you can safely assume that the Bucks will be given far more credit by just about everyone this season.
Milwaukee benefited from a number of breakout performances, the most significant of which came from rookie Brandon Jennings. The first-round pick, who decided to forgo college ball in favor of playing overseas, averaged 15.5 points and was the key cog of the Bucks' offense. He'll be expected to perform even better this season, with star center Andrew Bogut nursing an arm injury that may not be 100 percent until next year.
If their chemistry continues to evolve, Milwaukee could find itself back in the postseason picture for a second straight year.
Pick: Over
Indiana Pacers
2009-10 record: 32-50 straight up, 40-41-1 against the spread
2010-11 season win total: 33.5
An injury-plagued 2009-10 campaign prevented fans from seeing what the Pacers were capable of accomplishing with a full roster. Aside from a few preseason nicks, Indiana should be healthy for the start of the season and could surprise out of the gate.
The Pacers are led by dynamic scorer Danny Granger, who is looking to bounce back from a season that saw the majority of his offensive numbers take a slight dip. He'll have the benefit of a new starting point guard in Darren Collison, who showed flashes of brilliance last season as Chris Paul's injury replacement in New Orleans. Collison is one of the fastest players in the league and if he's able to open up floor space, Granger could be the biggest beneficiary on the offensive end.
Longtime Pacer Troy Murphy was shipped out in the Collison deal and his rebounding and scoring will be missed. Towering center Roy Hibbert and college rebounding phenom Tyler Hansbrough should help in this regard. With the division so wide open, it won't come as a surprise to see the Pacers improve upon their forgettable 2009-10 season.
Pick: Over
Detroit Pistons
2009-10 record: 27-55 straight up, 34-46-2 against the spread
2010-11 season win total: 32.5
The Pistons' scoring hit rock bottom last season, as the team ranked second-last in offense in the NBA. The drop was particularly precipitous from beyond the arc, where Detroit made just over 31 percent of its shots. Backcourt mates Richard Hamilton and Rodney Stuckey were the biggest offenders, both finishing under 30 percent from 3-point range for the season.
Making matters worse was a crumbling defense that has long stood as the Pistons' strong point. Detroit finished as one of the worst defensive clubs last year and will be hard-pressed to improve upon that showing with an aging Ben Wallace as their centerpiece on D.
Despite adding college standout Greg Monroe through the draft and one-time star Tracy McGrady through free agency, the rest of the roster is largely the same. Although they battled through a slew of injuries in 2009-10, the Pistons aren't going to be any better this year.
Pick: Under
Cleveland Cavaliers
2009-10 record: 61-21 SU, 38-43-1 against the spread
2010-11 season win total: 32.5
What a difference a King makes.
After going 349-225 in seven seasons with LeBron James at the helm, including back-to-back 60-win campaigns and a berth in the 2007 NBA Finals, the Cavs are back to life as a bottom-feeder after losing James to the Miami Heat in the most publicized free-agent move in NBA history.
While fans in Florida are salivating at the thought of watching James, Wade and Chris Bosh tear through the competition, Cavs supporters must feel like they've been clubbed in the head with a ball peen hammer.
It’s unclear who will carry the bulk of the offensive responsibility. A projected starting lineup featuring Mo Williams, Jamario Moon, Anthony Parker, JJ Hickson and Anderson Varejao may perform well in short bursts, but isn't going to intimidate the majority of opponents. Antawn Jamison should see plenty of burn and provide a scoring spark, but there isn't much to get excited about in Cleveland this season – and likely the next few years, as well.
Pick: Under