Eastern Conference
By Larry Ness
As Gerald Ford once said back in 1974, “Our long national nightmare is over.” Updating to the NBA circa 2011, the Nuggets, like Ford did for Nixon, ‘pardoned’ Carmelo Anthony. The story reads like this; The New York Knicks have acquired Carmelo Anthony, league sources said. The swap is a three-way deal including Minnesota. The Knicks will send Wilson Chandler, Raymond Felton, Danilo Gallinari, Timofey Mozgov and a 2014 first-round draft pick to the Nuggets, who would get additional picks and cash. Along with Anthony, New York would acquire Chauncey Billups, Shelden Williams, Anthony Carter and Renaldo Balkman. New York will send Anthony Randolph and Eddy Curry to Minnesota as part of the deal in exchange for Corey Brewer. Are the Knicks better? It depends on who one asks. Let’s move on to my Eastern Conference update.
The Celtics begin play post-All Star break with a 41-14 record (.741), percentage points ahead of the “boys from South Beach,” who are 41-15 (.732). The 38-16 Bulls (.704) are two games back, after entering the All Star break with a winning percentage over .700 for just the fifth time in franchise history. The 36-21 Magic currently hold the No. 4 position, one game ahead of the 34-21 Hawks. The final three playoff spots in the East are currently held by the 28-26 Knicks plus two sub-.500 clubs, the 27-29 76ers and the 24-30 Pacers. The 24-32 Bobcats are one game out of the East’s final playoff spot, the Bucks 3 1/2 games back and the Pistons 4 1/2 out. Unlike the West, where if the playoffs were to begin today, just one postseason team from last year would miss this season (the Suns being replaced by the Hornets), the East would currently feature three new postseason entries in 2011.
Which teams made last year’s postseason in the East and are in danger of missing this year’s ‘party?’ Let’s start with the Cavs. After playing in the NBA Finals in 2007, the Cavs fell to just 45 wins the next year while losing in the second round (in seven games) to the eventual NBA champion Boston Celtics. However, Cleveland won 66 games in 2008-09 and 61 in 2009-10, each year representing the most of any team. However, you may have heard, the Cavs had a significant ‘defection’ prior to the opening of this season and come out of the All Star break with an NBA-worst 10-46 record. The Bucks went 46-36 last year (earning the No. 6 seed) but at 21-34, come out of the All Star break 3 1/2 games out of the final playoff spot with the Bobcats 2 1/2 games in front of them. There’s little to indicate that the Bucks are about to make a ‘playoff push’ post-All Star break. As for the Bobcats, they posted the franchise’s first-ever winning season last year (44-38), as well as making its first-ever playoff appearance. The team dumped Larry Brown after a 9-19 start this year and replaced him with Paul Silas. Charlotte is 15-13 since and has a solid shot at making it two straight playoff appearances this year. If the Bobcats don’t make a late-season push, the East could have three new playoff entrants this season, although none of them will be serious contenders.
The Knicks are on the verge of ending a six-year playoff drought, which matches that of the T-wolves for the longest active of any NBA team (note: the Knicks haven’t posted a winning season since 2000-01). Carmelo virtually guarantees 20 to 25 points per night and is the ultimate blessing for Amare Stoudemire. Some say that the Knicks traded away too much but Billups is surely an upgrade at point guard, especially come playoff time. By the way, if Chandler, Felton, Gallinari and Mozgov were really that good, wouldn’t the Knicks be better than 28-26 at the break? ‘Melo and Billups have 28 games to “get accustomed.” The 76ers missed the postseason last year (27-55) but had been postseason participators the previous two seasons. Doug Collins has done an excellent job in Philadelphia, after a poor start. His Philly team opened the year 3-13 but has gone 24-16 over its last 40 games. The Pacers, like the Bobcats, have benefited by a coaching change this season. Team president Larry Bird was unhappy with Jim O’Brien’s handling of Indiana’s young players and fired O’Brien in late January after a 17-27 start. Assistant Frank Vogel was promoted and the Pacers won seven of his first eight games, before losing the final two before the break. The Pacers have missed the playoffs the last four years, after making 16 postseason appearances the previous 17 years.
I mentioned John Hollinger’s (ESPN’s NBA guru) rankings in part 1 of this article and will note here that he has the 27-29 76ers ranked eighth (among all 30 teams), despite them owning just the league’s 17th-best record. He also ranks the 34-21 Hawks (owners of the East’s fifth-best record) just 18th overall. I’m not arguing with Atlanta’s low ranking, as the Hawks have been eliminated in each of the last two postseasons by second-round sweeps. The Cavs did the honors in 2009, outscoring the Hawks on average 96.3-to-78.3 PPG, while the Magic disposed of the Hawks last year by an average margin of 107.3-to-82.0 PPG. That brings us to the East’s current top-four.
The Magic represented the East in the NBA Finals in 2009 and seemed to be heading back for another shot at the Lakers in 2010, by opening the postseason with four-game sweeps of the Bobcats and Hawks, outscoring them 101.0-to-83.8 PPG in the two series. However, the Magic promptly lost Games 1 and 2 of the Eastern Conference finals at home to the Celtics, eventually losing that series in six games. The Magic made two major trades this past December, in hopes of keeping up with the Celtics and Heat. They acquired Gilbert Arenas (he looks washed up) from the Washington Wizards plus Hedo Turkoglu and Jason Richardson from the Phoenix Suns, who have both fit in nicely. Orlando sent forward Rashard Lewis to Washington plus Vince Carter, Mickael Pietrus and Marcin Gortat to Phoenix in a separate trade. The Magic also gave Phoenix their 2011 first-round draft pick and cash plus received Suns forward Earl Clark. Dwight Howard is still the team’s centerpiece but the jury is still out on this team. The Magic went on a 1-8 slide just before and after the big trade, then won nine straight from Dec 23 through Jan 8, but in the 20 games since that winning streak ended, the Magic are 11-9. You tell me if this team is a contender or an also-ran.
Just how good are the Bulls? More than a few people will argue that Derrick Rose (24.9-4.4-8.2) is this year’s MVP, as the Bulls opened the season with Boozer (17.4-10.1 in his career) missing the team’s first 15 games and then shortly after he got back on the court, Noah (14.0-11.7 TY) was sidelined with that thumb injury. Boozer’s missed 18 games in all this year with the Bulls going a respectable 11-7 while they’ve gone 22-8 in Noah's absence. The good news is, that the Bulls say Noah’s ready to return on Wednesday. For the Bulls to be a serious playoff contender, they’ll have to start proving they can win on the road. Chicago is 25-4 at home through the All Star break but just 13-12 on the road. Let me point out that Chicago is one of five NBA teams to come out of the break with a record of better than .700 but it’s very significant that those other four teams, the Spurs, Celtics, Heat and Mavs are a combined 76-35 away from home, a winning percentage of .685 (compared to Chicago’s .520). That won’t cut it!
That leaves us with the Celtics and Heat. The Celtics barely edged out the Heat for the East’s top record at the break but have beaten Miami in all three meetings this year, which would give them the tie-breaker if these teams wound up with similar regular season records (not so far-fetched). If one believes that defense wins championships, then you’ll like both of these teams. Boston is allowing the fewest points at the break of any team (91.1 PPG) while holding opponents to 43.6 percent of their FGs, ranking third. Miami is allowing a few more points than Boston at 94.1 per game (6th-best) but leads in defensive FG percentage (42.6), as well as in opponents’ three-point percentage (33.0). While we all focus on LeBron (26.1-7.4-7.3), Wade (25.4-6.9-4.3) and Bosh (18.5-8.1), three players can’t guard five, so someone (other than the Big 3) is doing something right down in Miami on the defensive end of the court.
The reason I favor Boston over Miami the rest of the way (although let me note that the Heat do own the easier schedule), is on the offensive side of the game. Boston is shooting an NBA-best 49.3 percent as a team. LeBron shoots 48.5 with Wade and Bosh both shooting 49.7 percent with those three ‘carrying’ the team to an overall 47.4 percent mark which ranks second. Let me go back to when these teams last met on Feb 13. Despite Boston’s leading scorer (Pierce at 18.8 PPG) playing 40 minutes and scoring just one point (he was 0-of-10 from the floor, including 0-of-5 on threes), the Celtics won, 85-82. Six other Celtics scored in double figures that game, something Miami does not have the capability of doing. Miami’s Big 3 combined for 62 of the team's 82 points (76 percent) in that contest and in the end, I see that being Miami’s downfall. However, we have almost 30 games to go and I reserve the right to change my mind.
Western Conference
By Larry Ness
The Celtics went 66-16 on their way to the team's 17th NBA title in the 2007-08 season, the first season of the team’s current “Big 3” of Allen, Garnett and Pierce. Boston went 62-20 the next year, the East’s second-best record next to the Cavs, who matched Boston’s win total from the previous season by going 66-16 (easily surpassing the best single-season win total in franchise history). The Lakers, who lost to the Celtics in the NBA Finals in 2008 went 65-17 in 2008-09, marking the first time in NBA history in which two teams have won 65 or more games in the same season.The Lakers won the title that year, although not by beating the Cavs but rather the 59-23 Magic. The Lakers, despite winning “just” 57 games last year, made it back-to-back titles by winning the team’s 16th NBA title by beating the Celtics (only 50-32 during the regular season) in a seven-game series. The lone 60-win team last year was the Cavs (61-21) but as everyone knows, LeBron “took his talents to South Beach” during the past off-season, making the theme for Miami in the 2010-11 season, “NBA title or bust.”
Teams return from the All Star break on Tuesday to complete the regular season but it’s a misnomer to claim this represents the halfway point of the season. Teams have, on average, completed about two-thirds of their games. The Spurs have been the league’s best team since the opening tip and will host the Thunder Wednesday night, owners of a 46-10 (.821) record. The Spurs have made 13 consecutive postseason appearances and will obviously extend the NBA’s longest active playoff streak to 14 straight this postseason. In fact, the Spurs are “on pace” to win 67 games, easily the best in franchise history. However, it should be noted that the franchise’s previous high of 63 wins came in the 2005-06 season, when the Spurs lost in the second round to the Mavericks.
San Antonio has won four NBA titles since the 1998-99 season with only the Lakers winning more titles in that span (five). The Spurs’ first title came in the strike-shortened ‘98-‘99 season, when they went 37-13 (a projected 60 wins over 82 games). San Antonio won 60 games in 2002-03, 59 in 2004-05 and 58 in 2006-07, the team’s other title years. Popovich stated before the year began that it was his intention to play a “different type of game” this year and he’s been true to his word. The four previous San Antonio championship teams averaged 92.8 (1999), 95.8 (2003), 96.2 (2005) and 98.5 (2007) points per game while this year’s team is averaging 103.5 (just under 11 PPG higher than the team’s first title averaged). Is that good or bad news? The Spurs are allowing 96.3 PPG this season, ranking 10th in the league. A look back at the team’s previous four title seasons reveals that the Spurs ranked first in points allowed in 1999 (88.5), third in 2003 (90.4), first in 2005 (88.4) and first in 2007 (90.1). Only time will tell if Pop’s “offense-first” philosophy will pay off.
The Mavericks have played ‘second-fiddle’ to the Spurs since Duncan arrived on the scene but also own the NBA’ second-longest active postseason streak at 10 in a row. The 40-16 Mavs are six full games behind the Spurs at the break, even though Nowitzki missed nine games in which Dallas went just 2-7. That makes the Mavs 38-9 (.809) with their best player on the floor, a winning percentage which would be better than any other NBA team this year, other than the Spurs. The Mavs will clearly make their 11th straight playoff appearance this year and likely get the West’s No. 2 seed but it’s hard for me to take this team seriously and I doubt I’m alone. The Mavs are best known for their playoff failures, none more brutal than the back-to-back seasons of 2005-06 and 2006-7.
The Mavs finally got past the hated-Spurs in 2006 (winning a Game 7 in San Antonio) and advanced to the NBA Finals after beating the Suns. However, after taking a 2-0 lead over the Heat in The Finals, the Mavs imploded. Leading 89-76 in the fourth quarter of Game 3 in Miami, the Mavs were outscored 22-7 by the Heat to end the game, giving Miami a 98-96 win. The Heat then went on to win the next three games and take the title. The Mavs seemingly recovered from that ‘meltdown’ by posting an NBA-best 67-15 record the following year. However, the Mavs promptly lost their first-round series that postseason to the eighth-seeded Warriors, four games to two. The Warriors became only the third eighth-seed to upset the No. 1 seed and the first since the opening round went from best-of-five to the current best-of-seven format. Looking back into the NBA archives also reveals that the 2007 Dallas-Golden State series (at that time) was the 20th in NBA playoffs history in which one team had at least 25 more wins than the other in the regular season, as the Warriors were 42-20 that year. Not only were the Warriors the first underdog to win such a series but the previous 19 teams had combined to win only six games with none of those teams winning more than one game in a series. I’ll let you bet on the Mavs come the postseason.
The two-time defending champs (Lakers) hardly look as if they are ready to make a run at a third straight title or make a fourth consecutive appearance in The Finals, off the team’s pre-All Star performance. LA owns the West’s third-best record at 38-19 but at this point, catching the 40-16 Mavs seems unlikely, as the Lakers should be more worried about getting caught from behind by the 35-19 Thunder, who last year gave the Lakers a real scare in the first round (LA won in six games). Rumors surfaced a few weeks ago that the Lakers were in talks with the Nuggets about possibly acquiring Carmelo Anthony from the Nuggets but over the All Star weekend (trade deadline is Thursday), all the talk seemed to involve ‘Melo landing in either New York or New Jersey. This year’s Lakers remind me of the current Tiger Woods. Both have accomplished so much that one can’t say “never” but neither the Lakers nor Tiger give any indication that they are capable of returning to past form.
Last year’s Western Conference playoff-field was pretty tight. The Lakers claimed the No. 1 seed with a 57-25 record while just five games separated the No. 2 through No. 8 seeds. In fact, No. 6 Portland, No. 7 San Antonio and No. 8 Oklahoma City all finished at 50-32 with tie-breakers deciding the teams’ playoff seeding. The bottom-four West seeds at the All Star break are the the 32-24 Blazers, the 33-25 Hornets, the 32-25 Nuggets and the 31-26 Jazz. Currently “on the outside looking in,” are the 31-26 Grizzlies (losing a tie-breaker to the Jazz), the 27-27 Suns, the 26-29 Warriors and the 26-31 Rockets. Just 1 1/2 games separate Portland from Utah with Memphis currently only a tie-breaker away from being in and the Suns 2 1/2 games back. A close look at the current playoff field would see just one change from last year, the Hornets (No. 6) taking the place of the Suns (No. 3 last year).
A closer look reveals that there could easily be some changes at the bottom. The Blazers may be a safe bet to stay inside the ‘cut line,’ as both Roy and Camby are expected back soon. However, who is to say that when those players return, they’ll stay healthy. The Hornets have been the league’s streakiest team this year, opening 8-0 (and 11-1) but then losing nine of their next 12. After a 50-50 run, the Hornets won 10 straight from Jan 12 through Jan 26 but enter the All Star break having lost nine of 11 with Okafor missing the last nine games of that streak (2-7), although he’s expected shortly. Again, who knows? I’ll make no comment on the Nuggets because by the weekend, the team could have a completely different roster. Then we have the Jazz, who saw Jerry Sloan retire, Ty Corbin get promoted but little change. Utah was 27-13 back on Jan 14 but has lost 13 of its last 17 (0-3 under Corbin), including five straight at home for the first time since 1982, before Sloan even took over.
The Grizzlies made three consecutive playoff appearances from 2004 through 2006 (eliminated 4-0 all three times) but have a real shot of ending a four-year playoff drought this season with that terrific frontcourt of Gasol, Gay and Randolph plus up-and-coming point guard, Conley. The Suns were the West’s No. 3 seed last year and have participated in the postseason in each of the last seven seasons, so I’d be hesitant to count them out just yet in 2011, but of course, this year’s team has quite a different roster from the one which one 54 games last year. If one were to but real stock in John Hollinger’s (ESPN’s NBA guru) team rankings, he has the Suns at No. 13 in the entire NBA. He also has the 26-31 Rockets at No. 14, well ahead of the Jazz (ranked 22nd). I’ll be back with a look at the Eastern Conference on Tuesday.