NBA Draft Betting News and Notes

Betting the NBA Draft: Five Favorite Prop Picks
By Joe Fortenbaugh

Here’s what we know for certain heading into the 2016 NBA Draft:

It takes place Thursday, June 23 at approximately 8:00pm eastern in Brooklyn.

Here’s what we know for almost certain heading into the 2016 NBA Draft:

LSU power forward Ben Simmons will be selected first overall by the Philadelphia 76ers and Duke forward Brandon Ingram will hear his name called with the second overall selection by the Los Angeles Lakers.

Here’s what we should consider as very likely heading into the 2016 NBA Draft:

Picks No. 3 through No. 8 will feature a combination of the following names: Kris Dunn (PG, Providence), Marquese Chriss (PF, Washington), Dragan Bender (PF, Israel), Jamal Murray (SG, Kentucky), Buddy Hield (SG, Oklahoma) and Jaylen Brown (SG, California).

Got all that? Good. Now let’s get down to the business of identifying some winning proposition bets.

PROP: Who gets picked first: Jaylen Brown or Dragan Bender?

Brown: -130
Bender: +100

Pick: BENDER (+100)

Analysis: This selection highlights the importance of shopping for the best possible price, as Sportsbook.ag is offering the exact same prop, but with Bender listed at -140 and Brown posted at +100.

Bender is a 7-1, 216-pound Croatian power forward who, at the age of 18, spent last season playing for Maccabi Tel Aviv of the Israeli Basketball Super League. Between his elite-level versatility and excellent ball-handling skills, a variety of teams are in play for Bender’s services, including the Celtics at No. 3, Suns at No. 4, Timberwolves at No. 5, Pelicans at No. 6, Nuggets at No. 7, Kings at No. 8 and Raptors at No. 9. With that type of demand existing in the marketplace, it’s tough to pass up on an even-money prop that features Bender coming off the board before Brown.

As for Jaylen Brown, the 6-7, 223-pound small forward from California is an impressive finisher at the rim, amongst his multitude of additional high-level skills, but he needs to improve both his ball-handling and jump shot. However, perhaps more importantly, some believe Brown’s unique personality could cause a slide as far as No. 10 to Milwaukee. I believe this to be unlikely, but still feel that Bender’s draft night comes to a quicker conclusion.

PROP: Total international players selected in Round 1

Over: 13 (-115)
Under: 13 (-115)

Pick: UNDER 13 (-115)

Analysis: Expect to hear the following names called during the first round of Thursday night’s draft: Dragan Bender (PF, Israel), Furkan Korkmaz (SG, Turkey), Ante Zizic (C, Croatia), Ivica Zubac (C, Croatia), Timothe Luwawu (SG, France) and Juan Hernangomez (PF, Spain).

That gives us a total of six international players in the first round.

Other possibilities include: Thon Maker (C, Australia), Petr Cornelie (PF, France), Zhou Qi (C, China) and Paul Zipser (SF, Germany).

Add those four names to our earlier total and you now have ten international players landing in the first round.

That gives us a buffer of three for a push, and that’s assuming each of the ten aforementioned names avoids a draft day slide into the second round.

I like those odds.

PROP: Draft position of Utah center Jakob Poeltl

Over: 9.5 (-175)
Under: 9.5 (+145)

Pick: OVER 9.5 (-175)

Analysis: As mentioned above, we already have a pretty good handle of which players will hear their names called within the first eight picks of the draft. And if you paid close attention, I’m sure you noticed that Poeltl’s name was not among that group, which means in order for our over to hit, the Toronto Raptors at pick No. 9 would need to pass on the 7-1, 239-pound rim protector as well.

Toronto’s biggest area of need is at the 4, where likely targets include Kentucky’s Skal Labissiere, Michigan State’s Deyonta Davis and Marquette’s Henry Ellenson. Additionally, don’t be surprised if the Raptors opt for Gonzaga’s Domantas Sabonis, a physical prospect with high basketball IQ.

Don’t feel bad for Poeltl, however, as he’s likely to find a new basketball home at least a couple of selections before the lottery picks conclude with the Chicago Bulls at No. 14.

PROP: Who gets picked first: Kris Dunn or Marquese Chriss?

Dunn: -175
Chriss: +130

Pick: DUNN (-175)

Analysis: An elite defender with long arms and tremendous athleticism, Dunn has displayed remarkable improvement over the last two years en route to averaging 16.4 points, 6.2 assists, 5.3 rebounds and 2.5 steals in 33.0 minutes per game for Providence this past season. In addition, the 6-4, 220-pound point guard from New London, Connecticut is widely regarded as a plug-and-play prospect who can contribute significant production for his new team almost immediately. After Simmons and Ingram fly off the board to the Sixers and Lakers, respectively, don’t be surprised if Dunn lands at No. 3 with Boston, No. 5 with Minnesota or No. 6 with New Orleans.

Chriss is a freakish athlete in his own right, with the rare and highly coveted combination of shooting ability and rim protection on his resume. But the 6-10, 233-pound power forward from Washington is still a work-in-progress and needs to learn how to avoid the foul trouble that plagued him last season with the Wildcats. Chriss’s upside starts at No. 4 with Phoenix and likely ends at No. 7 with Denver.

PROP: Draft position of Oklahoma shooting guard Buddy Hield

Over: 5.5 (-175)
Under: 5.5 (+145)

Pick: OVER 5.5 (-175)

Analysis: The 2016 Naismith College Player of the Year and two-time Big 12 Player of the Year averaged a lights-out 25.0 points and 5.7 rebounds per game for the Sooners last season while knocking down a career-best 45.7 percent of his three-point attempts. But while the athletic and explosive playmaker may lay claim to the title of “Best shooter in the draft,” Hield’s stock has taken a bit of a hit in recent weeks due to the fact that evaluators believe he is undersized (6-5, 212-pounds) and one-dimensional.

As a result, I’m going to play the over here with the mindset that Hield lands in either New Orleans (No. 6) or Sacramento (No. 8). Perhaps the Timberwolves come into play at No. 5, but Minnesota is more likely to target Providence’s Kris Dunn or Kentucky’s Jamal Murray, assuming either player is still on the board.