NBA Draft Props Analysis
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com
The deepest draft in years will certainly yield gems for the teams at the top and should deliver a few profitable opportunities for you to wet your beak on props.
Although shops will likely offer varying proposition wagers come Thursday, the numbers this column will work with were available at BetOnline.ag Monday afternoon.
Boston has already made major waves by trading the No. 1 pick away, preferring to cash in on Philadelphia's devotion to guard Markelle Fultz as the player they want to pry from this class. The 76ers moved the No. 3 pick and a future first-round pick with "favorably protected rights" to the Celtics for the right to draft the Washington freshman.
GM Danny Ainge believes he'll get a player that he possibly would've selected first at No. 3, so he's going all-in on Fultz potentially not developing into the can't-miss standout that most project he'll be. Whether he selects Kansas wing Josh Jackson, North Carolina forward Jayson Tatum or even UCLA point guard Lonzo Ball, this decision will always hang over his head.
Fultz is -5000 to hear his name first and will. It's his job to make the decision look foolish, while Ainge will move forward with a player he likes third while adding another future lottery pick that can potentially sweeten the deal when packaged with all of his many other pieces to land Boston a long-coveted franchise player.
After the Lakers make their choice between Ball and Jackson -- and it would surprise me if it wasn't the Chino Hills star, Ball -- the Celtics are likely to decide between Jackson, an Ainge-type player, and Tatum a skilled combo forward who would definitely give the Celtics a piece they currently lack.
Suns GM Ryan McDonough has called this a Top-3 draft in terms of talent since he entered the league in 2003, widely considered the best in this century since it included LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Carmelo Anthony, among others. That means there will be a piece he likes at No. 4, where Jackson, Tatum, Kentucky point guard DeAaron Fox and anyone else they may have grown enamored with will undoubtedly fall.
It would be surprising to see the Suns pull the trigger on Fox, but a team that likes the UK point guard would be wise to swing a deal because he won't slip past the Kings at No. 5. That makes the draft props of Fox and Tatum interesting because both are being listed at 4.5. Currently, I'd have to ride with Tatum over Fox as the player who goes first.
Florida State's Jonathan Isaac, a 6-foot-11 pterodactyl of a combo forward whose raw skills merit a look, has said he's only working out for the top four teams, which makes his prop (6.5) awfully intriguing. The Suns have reportedly met with him twice, but they drafted two versatile frontcourt pieces last year in Marquese Chriss and Dragan Bender. Orlando could take the Seminoles standout, which would please many in the fan base who got a good look at him all year.
Arizona forward Lauri Markkanen (7.5), Kentucky shooting guard Malik Monk (8 ), N.C. State point guard Dennis Smith Jr. (8.5) and French League standout Frank Ntilikina (9.5) are among players listed among the Top 10, and I recommend taking the under on Monk, an elite scorer who could go as high as No. 6 to Orlando but shouldn't get past the Knicks at 8, which gets you a push.
It will be interesting to see whether Markkanen, a native of Finland, or the Belgian-born Ntilikina will be the first European-born player selected, so there's no great feel there at the moment. Duke's Luke Kennard (12.5) is the draft's top shooter at a time when that skill is in higher demand than ever before, but there is enough depth that he could potentially fall out of the lottery.
Duke forward Harry Giles (15.5), at one point the No. 1 prep prospect in this class before injuries derailed him, could also be a lottery selection despite having a limited impact with the Blue Devils due to a knee injury that may scare teams off. Still, he's a marvelous athlete who plays with great energy when healthy and looms as a risk-reward play that should land him in the top-half of the first round.
As things stand, this first round should feature the most freshmen ever, shattering the mark of 13. Since everyone understands this, the number being placed at 16.5 seems a little high. The number of internationals selected has been set at 4.5, and with clarification as to who is considered what since there are a few gray areas, take the over on that.
Among colleges, Duke (3.5), Kentucky (2.5), UCLA (2.5) and UNC (1.5) each have props up on the number of first-rounders they'll produce. While Tatum, Kennard and Giles are locks, it's unlikely that freshman guard Frank Jackson will sneak in the Top 30.
Riding rival North Carolina looks like the lock of the prop game, since you can expect both freshman center Tony Bradley and small forward Justin Jackson to represent the defending champs among the top 30 picks.
Jackson (19.5) is a fantastic individual value play since he's climbing up draft boards with his potential as smart, valuable wing, while Bradley should be selected somewhere in the 20s by a team interested in his size and agility since he projects as a standout rebounder.
Meanwhile, the overs for the 'Cats, and Bruins look strong since I expect Kentucky big man Bam Adebayo to be selected, joining Fox and Monk as draftees. Forwards Ike Anigbobu and TJ Leaf should join Ball and rep UCLA.
Betting the NBA Draft
Covers.com
It’s NBA Draft week which means it’s also NBA rumor red-alert week. The gossip leaks out so fast and hot from the oven - even aggregate kings like HoopsHype.com can’t keep basketball fans current.
The increased frequency of Woj-bombs dropped on Twitter make the Association as stable as the tectonic plates in San Andreas.
The good news for NBA Draft bettors is that all this uncertainly shouldn’t affect where the top 10 prospects are taken. This is a deep draft – maybe the best in terms of talent depth since the famed 1996 draft – but there does seem to be a clear picture of how the top 10 picks will play out on Thursday.
The order shouldn’t be affected too much if the ownership of the pick switches hands during a trade. Look no further than the Boston Celtics – Philadelphia 76ers trade from Monday. The Celtics didn’t want to draft Fultz but they knew he was the consensus top pick. Fultz still would have been the No. 1 pick if the C’s had traded this pick to just about any team in the league.
Luckily for bettors, the books don’t ask prop players to bet on which team will pick which player; degenerates like yours truly just have to pick the over or the under on pick position. So Fultz, for example is set at O/U 1.5 while Lonzo Ball is set at 2.5. There’s a lot of juice on this numbers so keep that in mind before placing your wagers.
Here are three prop plays to give bettors a little extra skin in game as they watch Jalen Rose and Jay Bilas try to pronounce Frank Ntilikina during the draft on Thursday.
Frank Ntilikina
O/U: 9.5 (-138, +100)
Speaking of Ntilikina, the international point guard was mocked as high as No. 4 or No. 5 earlier this year seems likely to be taken by the New York Knicks with the eighth pick or Dallas Mavericks at nine. We know the Knicks need a point guard and Phil Jackson knows he’d have to pull some Kurt Russell-type maneuvers to escape from New York if he traded the pick.
Chad Ford dropped the best hint early this week. Ford reported Dallas hired Ntilikina’s former coach to work with the team’s Summer League squad.
That’s a clear sign Ntlikina, a long-limbed guard who projects as a solid defender, won’t make it past the Mavs at No. 9.
Pick: Under 9.5
De’Aaron Fox
O/U: 4.5 (-110, -125)
This is a point-guard heavy draft but taking the under here essentially means there would be three PGs will be taken within the top four picks.
Sixers center Joel Embid already told us Fultz is Philly’s man with the pick the team acquired from Boston, and while the Lakers are sending out smokescreens, we all know Lonzo’s going to be in the Purple and Gold next year. Ball’s game is too much like another former Laker legend for Magic Johnson to pass on.
Now, the drop off in talent from Fultz and Ball to Fox is significant. Fox can’t shoot and if you watch today’s NBA, you’ll know point guards who can’t shoot aren’t very helpful.
The Celtics don’t want a PG or they would have stayed where they were and picked Fultz. Phoenix has Eric Bledsoe and not much at small forward. The only way Fox is taken before No. 5 is if another team loves him and trades for Boston or Phoenix’s pick. And the price – keep in mind – will be marked up more than Lonzo Ball’s signature shoes.
Pick: Over 4.5
Malik Monk
O/U: 7.5 (+125, -175)
Monk is an explosive athlete who shoots at an elite level from all over the floor. He filled up the hole in a hurry in college, most notably when he lit up the Tar Heels for 47 points in December. But Monk’s scoring slowed down drastically by March and he averaged just 13 points per game over his final eight college games.
He doesn’t handle the ball well enough to play the point and he’ll be a small two-guard in today’s game at 6-3, 200 lbs. Defense isn’t his calling card either. The team that drafts him will do so solely based on his offensive talent.
Pick: Over 7.5
Top NBA Draft Props
Sportsbook.ag
Now that we are in that stretch of sports betting lull time in the calendar with basically only MLB action going on of the four major North American sports leagues, bettors have no problem reaching out a bit to other ventures to find action in other places.
The NBA draft is one of those options and with it taking place in a couple of days, there is no better time to get a few bucks down if you are going to be watching.
Yet, with all one off prop bets like this, things like bankroll management are critical because as I've said before, there is no need to go all out on draft props because you simply can't dig into the stats, history, game scenarios that you can on a given contest in a particular sport.
So with that being said, let's get right to a few NBA draft props offered at Sportsbook.ag for this year that are seemingly quite attractive.
Draft Prop Bet #1: UCLA Players Drafted in 1st Round: Under 2.5 (+325)
I'll start with the biggest underdog that seems reasonable to take a stance on as more than 3-1 on your money would be a nice return. The line at Sportsbook.ag makes the statement that Jonah Bolden is considered an International for this wager, so keep that in mind as well.
We all know that Lonzo Ball is going to go in the Top 2 or 3 picks (likely to the Lakers) and his freshman teammate TJ Leaf should be plucked off the board in Round 1 as well.
That means that this prop is going to hinge on 6'10'' C Ike Anigbogu in all likelihood and while the big man definitely has NBA-caliber skills – especially on the offensive glass – there are plenty of weaknesses in his game as well. His scoring abilities are sub-par with most of his points coming on putbacks or lobs, forces bad shots and possessions with bad decision making, has minimal perimeter game, and doesn't always show his explosiveness in traffic when other exceptional athletes are guarding him.
Given those negatives and the NBA coming a more speed, perimeter, and smaller game, I'm not sure anyone in the first round will take a shot with him. There are more polished big men prospects ahead of them, and everyone's looking for those backcourt players that can change the course of their franchise. Anigbogu doesn't rank highly in any of those aspects and while he will be a great value pick in the 2nd round, it's those final 30 picks where we should see his name get plucked off the board.
Draft Prop Bet #2: Oregon Players Drafted Overall: Over 2.5 (-375)
This is a very chalky play, but after the Ducks made their run to the Final Four this spring, scouts and NBA executives definitely raised their stock on the players coming out of this program.
Three Oregon Ducks should get drafted within the 60 draft selections, as PF Jordan Bell is a likely 1st rounder, while Tyler Dorsey and Dillon Brooks definitely opened a lot of eyes back in March. The latter two are likely to find NBA homes in the 2nd round, but oddsmakers expect them to be taken and It's very difficult not to agree with them.
Draft Prop Bet #3: Gonzaga Players Drafted Overall: Under 1.5 (+115)
Gonzaga had a nice NCAA Tournament run themselves making it all the way to the Final, but they really lost some stock when a much more athletically talented UNC team dictated the bulk of that game.
The knock on the Bulldogs all season (and for years actually) was their lack of quality foes they go up against and while that's a heated debate in the college game, things like that definitely play on the minds of NBA teams and their talent evaluators.
Recent history suggests teams won't be afraid to shy away from Gonzaga players either as the last six Bulldogs drafted to the league are not exactly a who's who of NBA stars.
Those six guys include names like Domas Sabonis (who did start to come into his own late in 2016-17), Kelly Olynyk, Robert Sacre, Austin Daye, Adam Morrison, and Ronny Turiaf. Olynyk is by far the best of the bunch as big men seem to be Gonzaga's speciality in terms of the NBA of late – in the post John Stockton era obviously – and you'd have to go all the way back to 2002 to find the last time the Bulldogs had two players drafted in the same year.
This year's crop of talent includes arguably the best C in the draft in Zach Collins, who will like be a Top 10-15 guy, but after that it's going to be about whether or not teams will want to use a pick to take G Nigel Williams-Goss.
Williams-Goss is a veteran player that has plenty of skill, but in nearly all the mock drafts you can see out there he's either not in them or picked with the last two or three picks. At +115 the price is there to risk him not getting his named called and instead getting a training camp invite or something as a rookie free agent.