Early Season Thoughts
By The Prez
With Christmas Day generally marking the one-third point of the NBA season, we’ve learned plenty this year. Here are a few things that stand out:
The Hawks are your best bet
No team has more against the spread wins than Atlanta’s 20, and no team has fewer ATS losses than the Hawks’ 8. Other good bets? Houston is 18-11 ATS, Charlotte is 17-10 ATS and Oklahoma City is 17-11 ATS. It’s no coincidence these are all thought of as overachieving teams. The worst bets this season are the Nets (8-21 ATS) and Bulls (8-16-3).
The Bulls miss Ben Gordon
Speaking of the Bulls, they blew it by letting Ben Gordon go to the Pistons as a free agent. They figured they could just move John Salmons to shooting guard and that with Luol Deng back from injury they would build on last season’s epic playoff series against Boston. Instead Chicago enters Christmas at 10-17 and with the fewest ATS wins in the NBA (tied with New Jersey, see above). Salmons has been a disaster, and beleaguered coach Vinny Del Negro recently benched him for Kirk Hinrich. Salmons is shooting a career-low 38.2 percent, and his 31.6 3-point percentage is the second-lowest of his eight-season career. Chicago blew a 35-point second-half lead in losing to Sacramento recently, and that probably spelled the end of Del Negro’s tenure as coach – it’s just a matter of when now. And benching the popular Salmons won’t sit well with players. This team has given up on its coach, so don’t wager on them until Del Negro is gone.
Nuggets are not very deep
Sure, the Nuggets crushed the Atlanta Hawks two days before Christmas, but that was the first time this season that Denver won a game without one of its starters. The Nuggets played Atlanta without Chauncey Billups and had lost their previous two without the point guard, including falling down 23 points at Memphis. Denver also has gone 0-3 this year in games that starting power forward Kenyon Martin has missed. What does this tell you about this team? No depth. Sixth man J.R. Smith is too hot and cold, backup point guard Ty Lawson is an inconsistent rookie, and Chris Andersen can’t shoot to save his life. Denver is arguably the best team in the NBA at home (13-1, 9-5 ATS) but that could be because of the altitude. In the playoffs, this team will be exposed.
The Rockets are the best “team”
Quick, name a lock playoff team that doesn’t have a single recognizable star. I say the only team in the league that qualifies is the Rockets, who enter Christmas at 17-12 (18-11 ATS) and three games behind the Mavericks in the Southwest Division. Yes, Tracy McGrady is on the Rockets, but he hasn’t been star-quality in a while, and he has been a bit player since returning from injury. Trevor Ariza was one of the best free-agent signings of the offseason, and this team could be something next year when Yao Ming returns and if it can deal McGrady for something. As for this season, oddsmakers and foes tend to take Houston lightly. The Rockets have beaten the Lakers at their place and also won at Utah and Portland (Houston is 10-7 ATS on the road). Is this a championship team? No. But it should continue to be good betting value.