NBA Eastern Conference Finals Preview and Pick
By LARRY JOSEPHSON
Orlando Magic (-275) vs. Boston Celtics (+244)
Anybody mind if we interrupt the constant yammering about LeBron James and his impending free agency to remind everyone that the world hasn’t ended and that we will actually have an Eastern Conference championship series and that it actually will start in a few days and that the Orlando Magic and Boston Celtics are actually pretty good?
The Magic no doubt are as stunned as anybody else outside the 02114 area code that they’ll be taking on the Celtics, starting Sunday, in the East finals. The teams met in the second round a year ago when the Magic bested the C’s in a seven-game series on their way to The Finals. And while many of the same characters have remained the same, there are also significant differences.
How the Magic have remained the same
Orlando is still an inside-out team that can beat you by 25 if its outside shots are dropping and lose to a mediocre opponent if they aren’t. Last season the Magic took advantage of the absence of injured Kevin Garnett, sent Rashard Lewis to the corner and chuckled as Glen Davis, more comfortable in the paint defensively, struggled to close on him.
Lewis was Orlando’s most consistent offensive player, raining 3-pointers on the Celtics for seven games. He averaged 20.5 points a game in the series, scoring no fewer than 17 in any game.
Dwight Howard remains every bit the defensive force he was last season but appears to be whining less about not getting the ball enough on the offensive end.
How the Magic have changed
So far so good on the Vince Carter deal. With Jameer Nelson, who missed the Celtics series last year due to injury, back at full speed and Carter on board, the backcourt gives the Celtics different concerns this time around. Both players can go off at any time – the inconsistent play of Courtney Lee, Rafer Alston and Hedo Turkoglu actually allowed the Celtics to keep the series alive last season.
Orlando won’t have an advantage over Celtics starters Rajon Rondo and Ray Allen, but they won’t be as overmatched as Cleveland backcourt was. Matt Barnes has been a nice addition and has wormed his way into the rotation.
How the Celtics have remained the same
Dwight Howard has called Kendrick Perkins the best low-post defender in the league, and if Perkins can stay out of foul trouble (no easy feat), it make life much easier on the Boston front line. Orlando likes to get Howard the ball early and often in the first period, and that won’t change.
The Celtics were somehow able to get past Cleveland despite a subpar performance from Paul Pierce, but that was partly because Rondo’s emergence. Allen’s 3-point shooting has been streaky – if he’s on, the defense is stretched, opening up things for Pierce to slash.
How the Celtics have changed
Magic fans might not recognize Garnett, who was hobbling around the last time the teams played in Orlando. Lewis drove by an immobile Garnett for the winning hoop way back on Jan. 28, but Garnett’s knee is greatly improved. Last season Lewis abused Davis, but a rejuvenated Garnett is able close on Lewis’ perimeter game faster than Davis could.
And then there is the matter of Rondo, who will most likely be a constant visitor in Mike Brown’s dreams for the next two or three decades. If Rondo is a reasonable duplicate of the player who dominated Cleveland’s backcourt, Nelson is in for an interesting next couple of weeks.
The overall matchup
Any team that wins eight consecutive playoff games, like Orlando has done in swatting away the Bobcats and the Hawks by an average winning margin of 17.5 points, should be oozing with confidence. And the Magic certainly don’t lack swagger.
But if the Magic think that the Celtics are going to wet their pants the way the Hawks did against Orlando, well, it just ain’t going to happen.
Boston was one of the best road teams in the league (better on the road than at home, actually) and the Celtics’ starting five has never lost a playoff series. Boston’s veterans, who struggled all season when they appeared worn out by travel, nagging injuries and back-to-back sets, appear energized again as they take advantage of days off between games and longer TV time-outs.
Look hard at the under
Five of the seven games in the Eastern semis last season went under, and low over/under totals are expected again this season, perhaps in the 187-188 range for Games 1 and 2. Miami and Cleveland both attacked the Celtics the same way, slowly down the ball and insuring that their superstars (James and Dwyane Wade) had the ball in their hands on every offensive set, hoping to force the Celtics defense to work for large portions of the 24-second clock.
Working in favor of the under is the increased playing time given to Boston defender Tony Allen. When he’s on the court, games can resemble an Ohio State football game from the 1980s.
Prediction
Assuming it goes 7, this series will be played out over 15 days, with the only 3-day break coming between Games 2 and 3 as the series shifts to Boston.
Rashard Lewis, who as mentioned earlier was the x-factor in last year’s series, is not playing great basketball. If he isn’t knocking down corner 3-balls, then KG can cheat down low in the paint.
Liking a slow start in Game 1 for Boston, then agita for Stan Van Gundy from that point on as Boston wins in 7.