NBA Eastern Conference Playoff Series Picks
By LARRY JOSEPHSON
Let’s lay the cards on the table.
Dealing from the top of the deck you peel off LeBron James, Dwight Howard, Joe Johnson, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett.
Unless something really bad happens to one of those players early in the playoffs, their teams will all make it to the Eastern Conference Final Four. Unlike in the West, there is a substantial talent gap between the No. 4 seed (Boston) and the other teams who will not be around much longer than a week.
Miami is one-dimensional, Milwaukee has shot its load and has been forced to change its style of play on the fly, Charlotte has too many bangs and bruises and Chicago always seems to be fighting itself.
Chicago Bulls (+1650) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (-2600) (Season series 2-2)
Joakim Noah says the Bulls “are going to shock the world.” Sure. The Bulls deserve props for surviving a 10-game losing streak, then winning six of their last eight to grab the last playoff spot in the East, but beating everyone’s presumed Eastern Conference champ is ludicrous to the Nth degree.
The Bulls, to their credit, will scrap, the same way they did in forcing Boston to seven games in the opening series last season. But we all know this is LeBron’s year and getting a call against James in the final minutes of a close game is damn near impossible.
Cleveland’s issues are all chemistry related – how to run the offense with James back in the mix after resting since April, how many minutes to play Shaquille O’Neal. It’ll be interesting to see how Shaq and Zydrunas Ilgauskas divide time, plus how intent the Cavs will be on stopping Derrick Rose. Three of the four regular-season games between the teams went under. Cleveland wants the ball in James’s hands every possession and doesn’t push the ball a lot.
Interesting statistic: Forward Luol Deng (66) and reserve guard Kirk Hinrich (85) both had more steals this year than Derrick Rose (57).
Prediction: Cavaliers in four
Charlotte Bobcats (+700) vs. Orlando Magic (-1000) (Magic won season series 3-1)
The Bobcats finished with a flourish, grabbing the No. 7 seed by winning nine of their last 12 in the regular season. But seven of those nine victories came at the expense of teams that have pretty much cashed it in already.
More importantly, any chance Charlotte has of making this series even remotely competitive depends on the health of several key rotation players – Stephen Jackson (hamstring), Gerald Wallace (shoulder), Larry Hughes (toe) and Tyrus Thomas (thumb) are all ailing.
Orlando just needs to pay a little more attention to things – last season the 76ers made life a little uncomfortable by taking the opening round to a sixth game before the Magic put the hammer down. Casting a substantial shadow in this series is the rumor that Charlotte coach Larry Brown is getting restless again and is eyeing another stint with the 76ers.
Bettors should take a hard look at the totals. The under and over each hit twice in the four regular-season games, but one of the games needed to go overtime for the over to cash. Brown is likely to try to play this series at a snail’s pace and keep the games in the 80s.
Interesting statistic: Charlotte was the No. 1 defensive team in the league this season, holding opponents to 93.8 points per game.
Prediction: Orlando in four
Milwaukee Bucks (+550) vs. Atlanta Hawks (-725) (Hawks won season series 2-1)
Losing Andrew Bogut late in the season didn’t stop the Bucks cold in their tracks, but it did force them to alter their style of play. Without Bogut (maybe the NBA’s most improved player this season) Scott Skiles has re-tooled the Bucks’ offense on the fly. Milwaukee now relies on isolations and high screens, forcing opponents to play 20 seconds of defense before a shot goes up.
Teams with disciplined defenses and half-decent bigs (Cleveland, Boston, Orlando) can deal with that without much problem, but Atlanta is man-up club that relies on athletic ability and that gives the Bucks half a shot to take this series to six. Atlanta has troubles on the front line, where undersized Al Horford plays bigger than he really is, but Milwaukee doesn’t have anything to exploit that.
At some point Joe Johnson, Jamal Crawford, Josh Smith and Mike Bibby will take control of the series offensively and wear down the Bucks. Milwaukee’s chances of stealing one in Atlanta are slim.
Interesting statistic: Atlanta’s starters missed a total of only nine games to injury this season.
Prediction: Atlanta in five
Miami Heat (+155) vs. Boston Celtics (-175) (Celtics won season series 3-0)
For 81 games, Doc Rivers said the Celtics would be fine come playoff time. Then before Game 82 last night, he said he doesn’t know what to expect. Huh? Looks like Rivers is finally starting to either realize or admit that the Celtics’ problems run deeper than just getting healthy.
Boston’s hopes of playing into late May are directly proportionate to the strength in Kevin Garnett’s knees. Without him at peak efficiency (and right now that’s at about 65-70 percent of what he was when the Celtics won the title two years ago) this team goes down hard even if it finds a way past Dwyane Wade and the Heat.
Wade and the Heat have made a nice recovery from a slow start and come into this series with an 18-4 record since March 2. Last season Miami pushed Atlanta to a seventh game in the opening series when Wade went off and couldn’t be handled after a sluggish Game 1.
Interesting statistic: The Celtics were 25th in the league in rebounding this season.
Prediction: Boston in six