NBA Finals Predictions
VegasInsider.com
The 2017 NBA Finals begins on Thursday June 1st from Oracle Arena as Golden State will be looking to avenge a loss to Cleveland in last year's finals. This will also be the third consecutive year that the pair will be meeting in the finals, which makes this series the first trilogy in league history.
Throughout the 2017 playoffs our trio of NBA experts listed below have offered up their fearless predictions on every series and their records aren’t too shabby through 14 series (Exact Games).
Below are each of their predictions for the NBA Finals between the Warriors and Cavaliers, which includes their analysis as well.
Analysis - Kevin Rogers
Most people believe Golden State will roll through Cleveland to avenge last year’s NBA Finals meltdown. The Warriors led the Cavaliers, 3-1 before Draymond Green was suspended for Game 5 and things went downhill for Golden State. Two seasons ago, the Cavaliers played without Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love as the Warriors won in six games over LeBron James and a bunch of role players.
This time around, Irving and Love are healthy, while the role players around James have improved with veterans Deron Williams, Kyle Korver, and Channing Frye being key pieces off the bench along with J.R. Smith and Iman Shumpert. Golden State obviously has four stars on the court with Green, Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and the offseason addition of Kevin Durant.
What worries me about Golden State is the supporting pieces around that Big 4. Andre Iguodala won the NBA Finals MVP two seasons ago, while Shaun Livingston can contribute double-figures off the bench anytime. But there aren’t any other role players that be significant options if the shots aren’t going down for Curry, Durant, and Thompson.
The two teams combined for only one loss in the postseason, as the Cavaliers threw away a 21-point lead in a Game 3 setback to the Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals. Both opponents for Golden State and Cleveland lost their best player early in the series, while neither was significantly tested in the first three rounds.
The Warriors and Cavaliers have been preparing for this rematch since Cleveland stunned Golden State in Game 7 of the Finals last June. The pressure is squarely on Golden State to prove last year’s meltdown was a fluke, but with Steve Kerr’s availability to coach in-game in question, that has to be another concern for the Warriors.
Analysis - Chris David
This isn’t an easy handicap because both clubs enter this matchup with incredible form and that’s a large part of my handicapping. However, it’s hard to ignore the defensive numbers that Golden State brings to the table and I believe that will be the decisive edge in this series.
The Warriors led the NBA in defensive efficiency while the Cavaliers were ranked 21st. During the playoffs, they’ve held opponents to 41.6 field goal percentage and just 102 PPG and I’m well aware that Cleveland will be a much stiffer test. What the Cavaliers have done offensively in the playoffs is remarkable and if they continue to shoot that well from distance (43.5%), you can make an argument that Cleveland could easily sweep Golden State. While it’s certainly possible and the Cavaliers have a ton of gunners, I don’t see them winning any games by outshooting the Warriors. In its one loss during the postseason to Boston, we saw Cleveland take 70 shots and 39 of them came from 3-point land. They tried to play keep-up with the Celtics and that backfired.
You often hear that the NBA is a “make-or-miss” league and that was evident in last year’s finals, especially for the Warriors. Golden State shot 49 and 54 percent in the first two games, which resulted in a pair of double-digit wins. In the next five, they never surpassed 42 percent and the only game they won occurred when they hit 17 bombs from 3-point land. The biggest difference with this year’s version of the Warriors is Kevin Durant, which is obvious. He’s the 2nd best player in the NBA and one underrated factor of his game is getting to the free throw line, something Golden State hasn’t done well in previous seasons. KD is a matchup nightmare for anybody and those freebies are huge, especially when the team isn’t connecting from the field. He made 27-of-31 in the conference semifinals against the Spurs and if he produces a similar stat line in this series, then expect a MVP award to go with his first finals trophy.
When it comes to my exact game prediction, I’m hoping for a combination of the worst and best decisions – I think. As fans we’ve been treated to some great sporting events over the last 18 months and this year’s NBA postseason has been unwatchable at times unless you’ve got action. I do believe we’ll see competitive games but that doesn’t mean we’ll get to watch five, six or even seven of them. When LeBron lost in his previous final appearances, those series ended in 6, 6, 5 and 4 games. I’ve been riding Golden State in sweeps in each of their first three series and I hope we get treated to history and watch the Warriors produce a perfect 16-0 record in this spot.
Analysis - Tony Mejia
Although the Cavs were impressive in closing out the Celtics in Boston, never giving them a chance to even hang around, Tyronn Lue now has to deal with a team that's truly difficult to stop. Understanding that he didn't mean to slight the Western Conference champs by saying that Brad Stevens' team was harder to prepare for due to their unpredictable sets and creativity minus injured leading scorer Isaiah Thomas, but it was a silly comment given what lies ahead.
No, the Warriors certainly aren't a mystery, but they're not exactly predictable. JaVale McGee was the leading scorer at the half of one of the games against San Antonio simply because the team took what the Spurs defense gave them, often leading to size mismatches at the rim. Ball movement always creates advantages for a team that features three elite shooters in Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson in addition to Draymond Green's high IQ and ability to make the right pass or set a perfect screen. There's a reason the Warriors haven't lost through 12 playoff games and are 27-1 SU since March 14, losing only the penultimate game of the regular season at home against Utah. Offensively, they've found a groove. Occasionally, Thompson may struggle to find his shooting rhythm, but if he's on, the Dubs are unbeatable.
Defensively, there's no team in the league that is better, which is a problem since the Cavs have improved on that end since their late-season swoon but haven't seen an attack as prolific as the one they're about to face in months. Sure, LeBron James playing with great intensity at that end of the floor elevates the level of everyone else, but Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love are poor defenders and Tristan Thompson is a true rim protector. With Golden State enjoying homecourt advantage and the better roster, it's hard to imagine the defending champs winning more than twice in this latest NBA Finals sequel, much less the four times required to win another ring. Barring injury or suspension, look for the Warriors to be too difficult to solve at both ends, which will undoubtedly leave Lue with a different opinion than the one he foolishly expressed before claiming the Eastern Conference.
Analytics back Golden State
By ASAWins.COM
Defense wins Championships!
There is so much to be said regarding this series, and you've already read most of it, so it's going to be difficult to write a comprehensive analysis in just a paragraph but we'll do our best.
The Warriors are going to win this series (-$255) and our numbers support a shorter series than most of you might think.
Golden State has one of the best rosters ever assembled in the NBA and could be compared with the Showtime Lakers of the mid-80's along with the Bird, McHale, Parrish, Johnson roster of the Celtics around that same time. This is coming from a guy that is a diehard NBA fan who has watched games religiously for the past 35 years.
To keep this as short as possible we'll focus on the keys to the series.
Defense: The Warriors had the 2nd best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA during the regular season allowing just 1.04 points per possession and they've bettered that number in the playoffs allowing just 1.018PPP. Cleveland was 21st in DEFF this regular season and have been slightly better in the post-season allowing 1.083PPP, which would still have ranked them 11th in the regular season. Don't forget the slight post-season improvement came against a Raptor and Celtics team missing their All-Star points guards in Lowry and Thomas.
Kevin Durant: Last year in the Finals the Cavaliers game plan was to allow Harrison Barnes to shoot from beyond the arc and take their chances of him beating them instead of Curry, Thompson and Green. Barnes missed 19 three-pointers in the Finals last year and was a big reason why the Cavs won a Ship last year. KD has made 20 of 48 3-pointers this post-season which is nearly 42% and better than his regular season average of 38%. Durant's PER or player efficiency rating is 25.1 during the playoffs which is essentially 3rd best in the post-season among meaningful players (4th LeBron, 6th Curry).
Let's not forget, IF Draymond Green doesn't get suspended for Game 5, along with the injury to Andrew Bogut, the Cavaliers likely don't win a Championship last year. The Cavaliers are clearly a very good team, and LeBron is one of the all-time greats, (NO not the GOAT - that still belongs to Jordan) but we have to factor in they are playing in the watered-down Eastern Conference. To make our point about the strength of the two conferences we'll use some basic math and percentages.
The six best NON-conference records in the NBA this season all belong to Western Conference teams and those six teams beat the East at a 71% rate. In fact, the Cavs 16-14 non-conference record (versus Western teams) is 12th best in the NBA. If we equate that 53.3% winning percentage and place them in the West this year they would have gone 28-24 in the Western Conference. Then we factor in their 67% winning percentage against the East and they would have gone 20-10 in those games. Combined that would make them 48-34 on the year, good for 6th overall in the Western Conference and barely better than Oklahoma City.
In summary the Warriors have depth to defend LeBron James with Iguodala, Durant, Matt Barnes and Draymond Green and can change up defensive looks throughout games. JaVale McGee gives them a rim-protector they didn't have last season when Bogut was injured.
Pachulia is a physical presence that can neutralize Tristan Thompson on the offensive glass. Offensively the Warriors were the #1 ranked regular season offensive efficiency team in the league averaging 1.156 points per possession. In the playoffs they have improved that number to 1.181PPP and that uptick comes after playing the Spurs and Jazz who were 1st and 3rd in defensive efficiency ratings.
Golden State has too many options for a poor defensive Cavs or any other team in the NBA to contend with. If Klay Thompson can dial in his shot starting in Game 1 then we'll predict a 5 game series at most and wouldn't be surprised with a sweep.