Futures to Watch
By Bruce Marshall
Can the NBA season really be upon us?
Yes, it's true, pro hoops begin this week, with college action commencing a few weeks down the road. Before it's too late, however, here are some preferred season "over/under wins" recommendations.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
ATLANTIC DIVISION...Coach Doc Rivers wouldn’t have enlisted for another tour of duty with the Boston Celtics (54½) unless he believed his troops had another title run in them. And Boston hardly stood pat in the offseason, adding a pair of big O’Neals (Shaquille and Jermaine) to compensate for the retirement of Rasheed Wallace and the knee injury to Kendrick Perkins that figures to keep him out until after New Year’s. Not to mention giving Rivers a size advantage over Miami in case the Celts run into the Heat in the postseason. But we saw the road map Doc used to get to the Finals last June, granting liberal rest in the regular season to his aging, injury-prone core of vets that also includes Paul Pierce and sore-kneed Kevin Garnett. Boston will be ready for a last hurrah in the playoffs, but sources don’t expect Doc to push things too much in the regular season; look "under" in Beantown...Doug Collins returns to the sidelines after several years behind the TNT microphone, but we suspect he might soon be wishing he were back alongside Dick Stockton at courtside rather than trying to coax the Philadelphia 76ers (34½) back to the playoffs. We doubt Collins is going to be able to extract anything more out of oft-sidelined PF Elton Brand than did the last three coaches in Philly. There are some interesting pieces (swingman Andre Iguodola, F Thaddeus Young, first-round pick Evan Turner from Ohio State) in the mix, but unless some frontline upgrades materialize, this is a rebuild process until further notice. At least all of the Eagles callers on 610 WIP won’t be wasting Howard Eskin’s time talking hoops; look "under" at Wachovia Center.
SOUTHEAST DIVISION...We’d be smiling if we were Dwyane Wade, too, escorting Gabrielle Union around South Beach and welcoming LeBron James and Chris Bosh as new teammates with the Miami Heat (64½). But before coronating this bunch, we’d like to see how the on-court chemistry develops, and if young HC Erik Spoelstra can deal with Maverick Carter and the rest of LeBron’s posse while reminding his stars they can only play with one ball at a time. The Heat will be plenty good, but we foresee some bumps in the road; look "under" at AA Arena...With all of the attention being paid to the Heat, don’t be surprised if the Orlando Magic (54½) plays with a chip on its figurative shoulder. Although we might have reacquired Hedo Turkoglu if we had the chance in the offseason, there are still plenty of scorers and shooters in the mix to take the pressure off Dwight Howard, whose offense remains maddeningly unrefined. Regardless, look "over" at the new Amway Arena.
CENTRAL DIVISION...Worldwide Wes wasn’t able to deliver LeBron as Windy City fans hoped, but the Chicago Bulls (45½) landed a couple of nice consolation prizes from the Jazz in PF Carlos Boozer and deadeye swingman Kyle Korver. And even with Boozer out until December with a broken hand, there is plenty of depth on hand to compensate. Eventually, Boozer’s presence in the paint and new HC Tom Thibodeau’s many defensive schemes will make Chicago a much tougher playoff "out" than in the past. "Over" at United Center...We don’t think the Cleveland Cavaliers (30½) will regress to the Ted Stepien days in the wake of LeBron’s departure, but they could come close. The roster has been gutted, and new HC Byron Scott might eventually have even less to work with if F Antawn Jamison gets shopped around at the trade deadline as expected. Thanks a lot, LeBron; under at "The Q"...Would the Milwaukee Bucks (45½) have been able to make some serious noise in last spring’s playoffs had C Andrew Bogut not been out with his hand/wrist injury? Maybe so. Bogut still isn’t 100%, and G Michael Redd is recovering from knee surgery, but there’s a lot of time for both to get well between now and April. In the meantime, don’t be surprised if 6-11 VCU rookie Larry Sanders, with the wingspan of Rodan, emerges as the kind of defensive force HC Scott Skiles loves. "Over" in Brewtown.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
SOUTHWEST DIVISION...We’ll believe it when we see it regarding C Yao Ming actually getting back on the court for the Houston Rockets (48½). But even for 20 minutes pg (don’t expect much more), Yao could prove a boost, and HC Rick Adelman has quietly added some valuable complementary pieces (especially G Kevin Martin at the last trade deadline and FA C Brad Miller in summer) to a mix that already included underrated G Aaron Brooks & F Luis Scola. We’re still not sure how Yao factors into the equation, but at full strength the Rockets could be a scary matchup for somebody in the playoffs. We’ll cross our fingers and go "over" at Toyota Center...The championship window seems almost closed for the aging San Antonio Spurs (50½). And as the wear and tear reduces the number of games in which Tim Duncan can be his old self, HC Gregg Popovich will continue to pace his star frontliner in hopes the "Big Fundamental" can be fresh for the playoffs, and cross his fingers that Euro import Tiago Splitter can provide some relief in the paint. At least the cameras can always find Mrs. Tony Parker in the crowd (by the way, have you seem Eva’s new rap video?). Look "under" at AT&T Center.
NORTHWEST DIVISION...The seeds of discontent has already been sewn with the Denver Nuggets (43½), thanks to some ham-handed tactics by agent Leon Rose to force a trade of client Carmelo Anthony to the Nets or Knicks. Now, ‘Melo is so desperate to get out of Denver that he is even enlisting Spike Lee’s help to get back to the Big Apple. What next, calls to Donald Trump and Regis Philbin? We can sense this coming to an unsatisfying conclusion by the trade deadline, distracting attention from HC George Karl’s return to the bench. "Under" at Pepsi Center...Underestimate the Utah Jazz (49½) and HC Jerry Sloan at your own risk. True, Utah surrendered a lot in the offseason when 31% of its offense (Carlos Boozer, Kyle Korver, and Wesley Matthews) left Salt Lake City, but Sloan immediately liberated Al Jefferson from Minnesota to take Boozer’s place and added versatile G Raja Bell, as well as first-round pick Gordon Hayward, the Butler ace who could actually provide more dimensions than Korver. As usual, expect Sloan to quickly fit in the new pieces, so we’re looking "over" at EnergySolutions Arena.
PACIFIC DIVISION...More than ever, it’s all about the ring this year with the Los Angeles Lakers (56½), as HC Phil Jackson looks to complete his career with another three-peat (which would be his fourth). But the window might be closing quicker than most realize at Staples Center, with a lineup mostly on the wrong side of 30 and durability becoming a real concern (Kobe already nursing knee problems in preseason). Expect Jackson to pace his aging stars accordingly in the regular season before ramping up for one more title push next April. Look "under" for the Lake Show...The Sacramento Kings (27½) took a risk when drafting Kentucky’s man-child C DeMarcus Cousins in the first round; this pick intrigues, as it could turn into another LaRue Martin or Joe Barry Carroll bust, or a Patrick Ewing-like dominator. If Cousins can mature, however, HC Paul Westphal might be overseeing the best collection of young talent in the league, with the complementary pieces (Carl Landry, Omri Casspi, and Beno Udrih) already beginning to fit nicely around LY’s Rookie of the Year, Tyreke Evans. They haven’t placed the bar too high in Sacto; expect an "over" at Arco Arena.