NBA Line Analysis
By Joe Nelson
While it would never be recommend to blindly play a game just because a line was at a certain number, it is always interesting to take a look back at the spread results in certain ranges once enough data in a given season has accumulated. Now past the All Star break in the NBA season there is a wealth of information to study and some interesting trends to be considered. Many of these trends are not big surprises and can fall into the common sense category, but in the emotionally charged endeavor that is sports gambling, common sense can often go out the window. Here are a few lessons based off of the most substantial trends on games falling on specific lines this season in the NBA.
Obviously, spreads change considerably and there can be great variation between various outlets so this data should all be taken with the knowledge that this is a very inexact science and this should mainly be viewed as an observation and not a specific set of recommendations. The trends and percentages featured here are all through the games completed on February 22.
Lesson 1: Stay away from double-digit home favorites.
While the NBA has become more of a league of the ‘haves’ and ‘have-nots’ in recent years, particularly with the upcoming collective bargaining situation and the economic turmoil of the past three years, these are still teams of highly skilled professionals and any team can beat any other team. If you are a fan in New Jersey, Oakland, or Minnesota you may not feel that way but the ugly underdogs have still proven to be very profitable this year as it has been in most NBA seasons.
NBA home favorites of ten or more sit at 44-71-2, which would be nearly 62 percent winners if you blindly played double-digit road underdogs this season. The most profitable numbers are those dogs priced between +11.5 and +13, going 35-12-1, or just shy of 75%. Oddly home favorites closing at -13.5 are 4-0 this season, so as you can see that this sample size really is not large enough to produce conclusive data but the numbers are compelling enough that you should make sure that a lot of factors are in your favor before considering laying double-digits in the NBA.
This trend is pretty typical in the NBA, although a bit stronger this season, as many bettors blindly will play against some of the worst teams in the league and play on some of the best teams in the league, so heavy favorites are often shaded with even higher numbers. It certainly takes some courage to bet some of the worst teams in the league on the road but playing games with value on your side is generally a good strategy.
Lesson 2: Five and a half is still dangerous.
Favorites of -5.5 have always had a bit of stigma as that line can be considered a dangerous number and the trends say that concern comes with good reason this season if those teams are at home. In the NBA there is generally a 3 to 4-point swing based on the home court advantage so with a favorite of 5.5 it generally is fairly even match-up in terms of the overall level of the teams. The home team might be slightly better but not enough to go up to being considered a heavy favorite or in an even match-up the oddsmakers might have shaded the home team based on most NBA teams having much stronger S/U marks at home. In the context of a basketball game, a 5.5-point margin would still mean a two possession game so it is easy to justify taking the favorite if you expect that team to win the game.
Unfortunately that logic can backfire often and 5.5-point home favorites are just 16-27 this season, giving nearly 63 percent winners to those blindly taking the road dogs in those situations. The numbers are not much better at -6 but the window does not expand further as -5 favorites and -6.5 favorites have been near .500. When taking a 5.5 point road underdog, you can generally expect a fairly even fundamental match-up and there are certainly many NBA games that come down the final few possessions.
Road favorites in this range actually do well however, so it may be worth considering some of the medium road favorite prices if the situation is right. -5.5 road favorites are 14-9 this season with -5.5 to -6.5 favorites combining to go 24-13 for nearly 65 percent. For a road team to be priced in this range there generally is a significant fundamental advantage in the match-up, yet not such an overwhelming edge to keep the line somewhat in check. Often there might be some tempting home underdogs in these situations, either a decent team presumably fired up to take on one of the elite teams or a losing team that is hosting a somewhat flawed favorite. Either way it has proven to be a profitable number so far this season.
Lesson 3: Home Dogs are lucky at seven.
It takes a lot for a road team to be a seven-point favorite in the NBA but in the few instances it has happened this season the home underdogs have been very profitable. Home teams have an overwhelming S/U advantage in the NBA but the ATS numbers will generally give a slight edge to the road teams. For a team to be favored by as many as seven on the road means they are likely one of the elite teams in the league. Most people like to back good teams and once it is established which teams are the top teams in the NBA both on S/U and ATS levels the spreads will continue to inflate.
Teams laying -7 or -7.5 on the road this season have combined to go just 6-17. Taking the underdogs blindly in those rare instances is cashing at nearly a 74 percent clip for the year. At -6.5 and at -8 the road favorites do well but there is something about the seven-range that has been good for the underdogs. Like all of this data, this could certainly be a short-term statistical anomaly, but while the numbers are this strong it is worth at least noting.
Lesson 4: Solid twos and fours at home.
This is not a trend that should be expected to hold up over multiple seasons but two of the strongest play-on numbers have been home favorites of exactly -2 and exactly -4. The numbers are poor on a half-point difference on either side but the solid twos and fours have been winning. -2 home favorites are 19-9-2 for the season for nearly 68 percent and -4 home favorites are 21-9 for a 70 percent spread winning percentage.
A -2 home favorite would imply that road team is the slightly stronger squad overall but in the NBA home court does mean a lot and difficult travel situations can also take a serious toll which could give the advantage to some of those small home teams. -2.5 home favorites are just 12-19 however so this is likely just a short term statistical outlier. Four-point home favorites again means a very even match-up and some may be hesitant to lay four in such a match-up knowing that many games are decided in the final possession with results falling at 1, 2, or 3-point margins. Home favorites at -3.5 and -4.5 have not been profitable so again, it is not worth trying to justify a logical rationale for these results, rather it is something that may be worth taking note of.
These were the most compelling trends on specific lines so far this season in the NBA. The fundamental match-ups between teams and the travel and emotional situational factors should carry the most weight in handicapping as well as the analysis of the true line value but these number specific trends may be worth keeping an eye on and can serve as a starting point in some situations.