NBA Midseason Report Cards: Best and Worst Bets
By David Chan
Now that Justin Bieber has been deemed a better basketball player than Scottie Pippen (by virtue of winning the MVP of the NBA All-Star celebrity game, of course), it’s time to get serious again.
We’re at the midway point of the season (or close enough), so let’s take a look at some of the best and worst bets in the league at All-Star break:
Best over team: Oklahoma City Thunder (33-21 O/U)
Oklahoma City was the best over bet at the first-quarter mark of the season and nothing has changed now that we’re at the All-Star break.
The Thunder have exceeded the over mark in seven of their past 10 games, thanks to a generally frenetic pace of play featuring impressive offense and lackluster defense. During that 10-game span, at least one of the two teams involved eclipsed the 100-point mark in nine of those contests. Both teams went over the century mark six times. The only time both squads were held under 100 was a 99-97 Thunder win at Sacramento last Saturday.
Both Kevin Durant (28.9) and Russell Westbrook (22.2) are averaging well over 20 points per game for Oklahoma City. Durant has scored in double figures every time he has taken the court this season and Westbrook has failed to reach double figures only once.
Best under team: New Orleans Hornets (21-37 O/U)
Recently, the smart bet involving the Hornets is to jump all over their opponents. New Orleans has lost three straight games (0-3 ATS) and nine of its last 11 outings (1-10 ATS).
But let’s not let that blind us from the fact the Hornets remain the best under bet in the league, just as they were at the quarter point. They have scored 100 points only once in their last 10 outings and overtime was needed at New Jersey in order for the Hornets to just barely reach triple digits in a 103-101 loss on February 9.
Defensive stalwart Emeka Okafor has missed New Orleans’ last nine games with an oblique strain, part of the reason why the team is 4-5 O/U in that span. When Okafor returns later this month, bettors can count on the under being a huge money-maker with the Hornets again.
Best ATS team: Philadelphia 76ers (35-20-1 ATS)
No team is getting better value this season that the Philadelphia 76ers. And why not? They went 27-55 a year ago and were supposed to be abysmal again this season.
Instead, the Sixers (27-29) have won as many games by the All-Star break as they did all of last season. Not coincidentally, they are best team against the spread in the entire NBA.
Philly won three of its last four heading into the weekend (3-1 ATS), including a 77-71 victory over the Spurs, so the team has plenty of momentum right now.
The Sixers should be able to keep it up, too. Two of their last three games in February will come against the two worst ATS teams in the league - Washington and Cleveland.
Worst ATS team: Washington Wizards (20-34 ATS)
Speaking of the Wizards, they are just downright bad. Betting on Washington, though, is two-fold. The team is respectable at home (14-13, 12-15 ATS) and awful on the road (1-26, 8-19 ATS).
It’s not getting any better for the Wizards, either. They have lost 10 of their last 12 contests (4-8 ATS) and one of the two wins in that period should not even count, as it came against a Cleveland team that had just ended the longest losing streak in NBA history.
Just how bad are the Wizards on the road? Well, just keep reading…
Best home bet: Chicago Bulls (18-9-2 ATS)
Thursday’s showdown between Chicago and San Antonio confirmed what we already knew: the Bulls are the best home bet in the league.
The Spurs went into Chicago with a 6-2 record for their annual “Rodeo Road Trip” (not to mention with the best record in the NBA), but the Bulls handled them 109-99. Derrick Rose went off for 42 points and added eight assists.
As for Rose, how can you bet against the guy? He is averaging 24.9 points and 8.2 assists per game. At home he is draining 41 percent of his threes (29 percent on the road), dishing out 8.9 assists (7.3 on the road) and turning the ball over just 3.2 times per outing (3.9 on the road).
Worst home bet: Atlanta Hawks (9-17 ATS)
When the Hawks signed Joe Johnson to a mega deal in the offseason, they said loud and clear that they were content with being mediocre. And they are just that.
However, the Hawks are way worse than mediocre when it comes to covering home spreads. In fact, they are the worst team in the NBA in that department.
Atlanta has dropped two straight at home (0-2 ATS) to relatively weak competition (Philadelphia and Charlotte) and is 2-6 ATS in its last eight at Philips Arena.
The good news for Hawks’ backers is that they come back from All-Star weekend with five straight on the road. The bad news? Their next four at home come against Chicago, Oklahoma City, New York and the Lakers.
Best road bet: New York Knicks (19-7-1 ATS)
The Knicks have quietly made themselves an outstanding play on the road. Overall they are a pedestrian 28-26 and an even more pedestrian 13-14 away from home. But the Knicks cover road spreads like it’s their job.
Bettors would be wise not to get off the bandwagon just yet. Three of New York's next four road games are against teams with wretched ATS home marks: Cleveland, Miami, and - the icing on the cake - Atlanta.
Worst road bet: Washington Wizards (8-19 ATS)
Like it or not, it's time to hear more about the Washington Wizards. After all, their road losing streak did not get as much attention as it should have. It was overshadowed, of course, by Cleveland's longest losing streak in NBA history.
All the Wizards had to do to end their streak of 25-game winless road slump was make the trip to Cleveland. They prevailed 115-100 last Sunday, needing none of the two points they got to cover the spread.
How did it feel? "Like Christmas," John Wall said.
Betting against the Wizards when they take to the road has felt like and should continue to feel like Christmas for NBA bettors.