Friday's Best NBA Bets
New York Knicks at Atlanta Hawks (-11.5, 204)
The Hawks will play their third game in four days and are coming off back-to-back losses to the Cavaliers where they surrendered fourth quarter leads.
Atlanta combined to score 26 fourth quarter points in each of those losses and now face a Knicks team that has been a defensive stalwart as of late.
Save for New York’s last outing, the Knicks had held opponents to under 100 points in 11 straight games. A primary reason for the team’s turnaround after starting the season 1-9 is the alteration of the starting lineup by head coach Mike D’Antoni that included benching Nate Robinson.
A somewhat unknown starting five has created turnovers and grabbed rebounds – Danilo Gallinari, Jared Jeffries, Chris Duhon, David Lee and Wilson Chandler is the latest rotation getting it done for D’Antoni.
“You look for combinations with the chemistry, you look for guys who take to coaching and you look for what you think you could build on,” D’Antoni said. “Some combos are better than others. It’s not against the player or anything, but you have combinations that work for whatever reason.”
The Hawks haven’t lost three straight this year and are 12-3 inside the confines of Philips Arena. One of those losses came at the hands of the Knicks, who defeated Atlanta 114-107 on Dec. 4.
The visiting team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings of this series.
Pick: Knicks
Sacramento Kings at Los Angeles Lakers (N/A)
Both Tyreke Evans and Ron Artest are questionable for this matchup which is why no line has been released.
Artest has missed the last three games after falling down a flight of stairs on Christmas Day and the Lakers have struggled on defense without his prowess, giving up 113.0 ppg without its best defender in the lineup. Artest was still experiencing dizziness from the concussion on Wednesday and Phil Jackson said he was “very doubtful” for the game against the Kings.
Evans has missed last two games with a sprained left ankle, but Sac-Town is still managing to put up points and win without him. The Kings have posted 106 points in each of their last two games – a win over Denver and a loss to Philadelphia – and are averaging 104.2 ppg over their last five.
"Tyreke is a big piece of our team and he's been showing that the whole year," said Beno Udrih. "But we can't feel sorry for ourselves. Injuries are a part of the game and you deal with it."
Even with a broken right finger, Kobe Bryant is absolutely unconscious right now. Since fracturing his finger on Dec. 11, the Black Mamba is averaging 34.5 ppg and 5.2 apg and has posted 34 or more in five straight.
These two teams have played to the over in six straight and nine of their last 10 meetings.
Pick: Over
New York Knicks vs. Atlanta Hawks
The New York Knicks and the Atlanta Hawks will both be trying to pick up a win on Friday when they battle at Philips Arena.
Al Harrington came off the bench to lead New York with 25 points in a 104-95 loss to New Jersey on Wednesday night.
The Knicks did not cover the 2.5-point spread, while the final score played OVER the day's posted total of 196.5.
Joe Johnson scored 35 points and Mike Bibby added 20 for Atlanta in a 106-101 loss to Cleveland on Wednesday night.
The Hawks did not cover the 5.5-point spread, while the final score played OVER the posted total of 196.
Current streak:
Atlanta has lost 2 straight games.
Team records:
New York: 12-20 SU, 15-17 ATS
Atlanta: 21-10 SU, 22-9 ATS
New York most recently:
When playing on Friday are 2-8
Before playing Indiana are 4-6
After playing New Jersey are 5-5
After a loss are 4-6
Atlanta most recently:
When playing on Friday are 3-7
Before playing Miami are 5-5
After playing Cleveland are 4-6
After a loss are 7-3
A few trends to consider:
New York is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of New York's last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New York's last 8 games when playing Atlanta
New York is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Atlanta's last 8 games when playing New York
Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Atlanta's last 13 games at home
Next up:
New York home to Indiana, Sunday, January 3
Atlanta at Miami, Monday, January 4
Orlando Magic vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
The Orlando Magic and the Minnesota Timberwolves will both be trying to pick up a win on Friday when they battle at Target Center.
Orlando put up 76 points in the second half to run away from Milwaukee 117-92 on Wednesday night.
Orlando covered the 10.5-point spread, while the final score played OVER the day's posted total of 195.
The Timberwolves were defeated 107-103 by the Jazz last time out, as 7.5-point underdogs. That game's 210 points made it OVER the night's posted total of 202.
Al Jefferson tossed in 21 points with nine rebounds in the loss.
Current streak:
Minnesota has lost 2 straight games.
Team records:
Orlando: 23-8 SU, 16-13-2 ATS
Minnesota: 7-26 SU, 16-16-1 ATS
Orlando most recently:
When playing on Friday are 6-4
Before playing Chicago are 4-6
After playing Milwaukee are 6-4
After a win are 7-3
Minnesota most recently:
When playing on Friday are 3-7
Before playing Indiana are 4-6
After playing Utah are 2-8
After a loss are 4-6
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Orlando's last 7 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Orlando is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Orlando is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Orlando is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Minnesota's last 7 games when playing at home against Orlando
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Minnesota's last 9 games when playing Orlando
Minnesota is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Minnesota's last 21 games at home
Next up:
Orlando at Chicago, Saturday, January 2
Minnesota at Indiana, Saturday, January 2
Sacramento Kings vs. Los Angeles Lakers
The Sacramento Kings and the Los Angeles Lakers will both be trying to pick up a win on Friday when they battle at STAPLES Center.
The Kings were defeated 116-106 by the 76ers last time out, as 2.5-point favorites. That game's 222 points sailed OVER the posted total of 205.5.
Jason Thompson collected a double-double with 15 points and 11 rebounds for the Kings.
Kobe Bryant poured in 44 points and dished out 11 assists to lead the Lakers past the Warriors 124-118 on Tuesday night.
Los Angeles failed to cover as 11.5-point home favorites, while the teams played OVER the 217.5-point total listed by oddsmakers.
Team records:
Sacramento: 14-17 SU, 18-12-1 ATS
Los Angeles: 25-6 SU, 13-18 ATS
Sacramento most recently:
When playing on Friday are 5-5
Before playing Dallas are 1-9
After playing Philadelphia are 5-5
After a loss are 5-5
Los Angeles most recently:
When playing on Friday are 7-3
Before playing Dallas are 6-4
After playing Golden State are 8-2
After a win are 7-3
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Sacramento's last 5 games when playing LA Lakers
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Sacramento's last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Lakers
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Sacramento's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Sacramento's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the LA Lakers last 5 games when playing Sacramento
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the LA Lakers last 5 games when playing at home against Sacramento
LA Lakers are 12-1 SU in their last 13 games at home
LA Lakers are 18-3 SU in their last 21 games
Next up:
Sacramento home to Dallas, Saturday, January 2
LA Lakers home to Dallas, Sunday, January 3
Trend Report - New Year's Day
By Ed Meyer
Knicks at Hawks - The Knicks are 6-0 ATS (12.0 ppg) since February 13, 2007 on the road after a game in which their opponent shot less than 60% from the free-throw line. The Hawks are 7-0 ATS (8.6 ppg) since March 25, 2007 at home with at least one day of rest off a loss in which they led by 10+ points. The Hawks are 5-0 ATS (8.4 ppg) since February 24, 2004 at home off a loss as a dog in which they led at the end of each of the first three quarters.
Kings at Lakers - The Kings are 7-0 ATS (8.6 ppg) since January 24, 2009 on the road with at least a day of rest after a loss at home in which Jason Thompson was not the Kings’ high scorer. The Lakers are 0-7 ATS (-8.9 ppg) since November 27, 2005 with two or more days of rest off a home win in which they trailed by 10+ points. The Lakers are 6-0 ATS (8.9 ppg) since January 14, 2009 when they have a revenge game at home next. The Lakers are 0-7 ATS (-7.4 ppg) since March 17, 2009 at home after winning the previous matchup in which Pau Gasol had a double double.
Magic at Timberwolves - The Magic are 10-0 ATS (7.5 ppg) since November 27, 2006 on the road after a double digit home win in which they allowed less than 40% from the field. The Magic are 0-7 ATS (-14.0 ppg) since February 07, 1996 on the road after a double digit win in which they had at least 15 fewer shot attempts than their opponent. The Timberwolves are 0-9 ATS (-12.7 ppg) since April 09, 2008 at home with at most one day of rest after a game in which they shot at least 50% from the field. The League is 0-8-1 ATS (-5.9 ppg) since January 24, 2007 at home off a loss of four points or fewer as a home dog in which they trailed by 15+ points. The Timberwolves are 0-6 ATS (-8.5 ppg) since January 10, 2004 at home with at most one day of rest after a game at home in which they had at least thirty assists. The Timberwolves are 0-7 ATS (-9.9 ppg) since December 20, 2008 at home after a loss at home in which Ryan Gomes took fewer than 10 shots.
NBA RoundUp For 1/1/10
By Dan Bebe
Knicks @ Hawks - Atlanta by 11.5 with a total of 204. A pretty hefty spread for a New Years game, though I'd say it's pretty safe the say the Hawks are not going to be in good spirits going into this one, and may very well be looking to take out their aggression on someone. Atlanta has already knocked off the Knicks twice this year, once by 13 and once by 7, and not surprisingly, this line falls right in between. I would prefer to back the Knicks on double revenge here, but they're coming off a truly ugly performance against the Nets, and I'm not convinced they're the type of team that can bounce back quick enough to stay close to the high-flying Hawks. Atlanta has been trading off covers and losses ATS, so it's not as though they're clobbering quite as hard as they were earlier in the year, and I do believe this number is a little bit on the high side. I lean to New York on the side. For the total, it might look a little high, given the way the Knicks have been slowing games down lately, and it might very well be a little steep, but interestingly, the Knicks game with the Nets was their first Over in the last 9 games! So it goes to show the players that if they don't play defense, they don't win games. I'm not confident that they'll get the defensive side of the ball turned around that quickly, though at the same time I think Atlanta is ripe to have a little bit of an emotional lull after the two WARS with the Cavs. I lean just slightly to the Under.
Magic @ Timberwolves - Orlando by 8.5 with a total of 205. Another hefty spread, this time for a road team that heads into Minnesota off a second-half stomping of the Bucks. Orlando trailed for a large portion of that game, then somehow managed to win by 25, as they scored over 70 points in the second half, and held the Bucks to under 40. Of course, in that one, the Magic were coming off about a week without a game - that's a slight exaggeration, but the time off left the Magic a little rusty in the first half, but their energy level really ramped up late in the game. I think this could be a very tough match-up for the Wolves, who only seem to be able to compete with the teams they can outrebound. In terms of ability to grab boards, Orlando is among the best defensive rebounding teams in the NBA because of a hefty fellow by the name of Dwight. I really don't like the Wolves chances in this one, and I think this line is pretty sizable for a reason. I rarely like huge road favorites, but I lean to Orlando in this one, since I think this time is right on the cusp of going on a beastly run, and I get the feeling the Wolves made their little push about a week ago. In terms of the total, I think we may very well see the Magic shoot over 50% and score close to 110. My concern is whether the Wolves will get up near 100. I lean slightly to the Over, but it's a weak lean, more of a tilt than a lean, really.
Kings @ Lakers - This line is OFF. For good reason, too. Tyreke Evans and Ron Artest are both probable, but this just won't be a game without Evans. We all know about Kobe's laundry list of nagging injuries (groin, finger, elbow), but he just seems to get tougher every year. More important in this match-up is that Kobe is rolling right now while the rest of his team is seeming to get less and less interested in the regular season. Lamar Odom and Andrew Bynum aren't doing much of anything right now, and if it weren't for Gasol, I'm not sure how many of these games the Lakers would actually win. It took 2 overtime periods for the Lakers to knock off these Kings up in Sacramento a week ago, but the Kings are a much, much better team when they're at home, and I'm not sure that coming into LA on New Year's Day after getting beat up by a surging Sixers team at home. This play will depend largely on the line. I think that both teams will be a little groggy, so my favorite play here would be an Under, but obviously we need to see where the line opens up. I also think that grogginess favors the Lakers, since they get the easiest shots of the two teams, and Kobe is immune to, it seems, just about everything. Mike Hook and I predicted the opening line on this game -- thought 10.5, I thought 9, and he's probably right, since I think I'm giving the betting public too much credit with the lower line. We always have to remember that the Lakers are such a marquee team, that almost every line set for them is going to come at a premium, despite the fact that LA has covered just 1 of the last 5 games, and that was, of course, the game in Sacramento. Also interesting, the Lakers have played to 3 consecutive Overs, as their defense without Ron Artest has suffered markedly.