Friday's Best NBA Bet
Detroit Pistons at Miami Heat (-10.5, 190.5)
Don’t buy the Pistons hype in South Beach. Detroit is 5-3 SU in its past eight games and is 26-20 ATS overall this year, the fifth-most wins against the spread in the league this season. But, oddsmakers caught on following a seven-point win in Orlando, making the team a mere 1.5-point favorite in a 109-100 home loss to Denver Wednesday.
The Pistons also have several big lineup issues. All-Star guard Richard Hamilton, who hasn’t played the past eight games while Detroit has improved its play, is pouting about the team’s treatment of him and creating a rift in the locker room.
Starting point guard Rodney Stuckey also is questionable for this game as he banged shoulders with Carmelo Anthony in the first quarter of the loss to Denver and was sidelined the rest of the night.
"He caught me at a good angle and I got hit," Stuckey, who also noted that he felt his shoulder pop, said. "I know I'm going to be sore tomorrow. I'll make the trip and we'll see how it feels.”
Rookie center Greg Monroe also has been on a huge tear lately, scoring in double figures in seven of the past 10 games and grabbing at least seven rebounds in eight of those contests. However, in an earlier game this year against Miami, Monroe had 15 points, eight rebounds and a pair of assists and the Heat still easily covered a 14-point spread in a 97-72 win in South Beach.
Pick: Miami
Magic, Bulls highlight Friday NBA betting card
By: Adam Markowitz
The Chicago Bulls and Orlando Magic both have aspirations of representing the Eastern Conference in the NBA Finals this year, and both know that they are probably going to have to go through the other to get the job done.
The two will look to fire a huge shot at the other on Friday night at Chicago's United Center in NBA betting action. Tip-off from the Windy City is set for 5 p.m. (PT), and the game can be seen live on Sun Sports and Cox Sports Chicago.
If you take out that questionable 103-96 loss at home against the Detroit Pistons on Monday night, the Magic have really played tremendous basketball over the course of the last month or so. They're 14-4 SU, and three of those losses have come by three points or fewer. They're also 12-5-1 against the NBA odds in that stretch to boot.
The offense has been on absolute fire for head coach Stan Van Gundy, as he knows that all of these roster changes really have made the team a lot better and lot more likely to be able to get back to the NBA Finals. The 'O' has dropped at least 111 on three of its last four foes, and dating back to December 23, the Magic are averaging a whopping 107.3 PPG while allowing just 96.8 PPG.
Eight different players scored at least eight points in the win against the Indiana Pacers on Wednesday night, headed up by Dwight Howard who scored 19 and dragged down 16 boards. The big man in the middle is the key for Orlando, as he is leading the team in a ton of categories, including scoring (22.0 PPG), rebounding (13.4 RPG), field goal percentage (56.9%), steals (1.2 SPG) and blocks (2.2 BPG).
For the Bulls though, this is a game that is all about respect. Though they have an amazing 31-14 mark this year, man think that this is a product of the fact that the Central Division is absolutely atrocious. Though it might be true that this is the worst division in basketball (the Pacific Division will give the Central a run for its money), it isn't just the teams in this division that the Bulls are playing well against.
There isn't a team that has scored triple digits against head coach Tom Thibodeau's squad since January 7, and only three teams have gotten there since December 6. Over the course of their last 10 games, the Bulls have held foes to an average of just 84.5 PPG, and they are 8-2 SU and 6-3-1 ATS in that run.
Derrick Rose is fighting the flu, but he is definitely expected to be in the starting five by the time this one tips off on Friday. The former Memphis Tiger is a legitimate MVP candidate this year, as he is averaging 24.6 PPG and 8.1 APG.
Though Joakim Noah is still out of the lineup with a thumb injury and will be for at least a couple of weeks, Carlos Boozer came back last week and now has two games under his belt since recovering from his ankle injury. He has been averaging 17.5 PPG and 9.5 RPG in that stretch, but he is at 19.9 PPG and 10.0 RPG for the duration of the season.
The Magic have done a great job of making the Bulls disappear in recent tussles, going 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS over the course of the last 10 encounters. Orlando won the first meeting on the year 107-78 here at the United Center as short two point underdogs on the NBA betting lines, and it will hope for a similar outcome again on Friday night.
NBA RoundUp for 1/28
by Dan Bebe
Memphis Grizzlies @ Philadelphia 76ers (-3.5) with a total of 192
The Sixers have covered 5 in a row and have won 3 in a row, straight up. The Grizzlies are coming off a loss to the Nets, are playing the final game of a 4-game road trip, and just lost O.J. Mayo for 10 games for "accidentally" taking an "over-the-counter" medication directly into his ass-cheek. Lean to the SIXERS until they give us reason to do otherwise, and the UNDER.
Milwaukee Bucks (-2.5) @ Toronto Raptors with a total of 192
Toronto is a disaster, losing 9 straight games overall. The rebounding butt-kicking they took at the hands of Philadelphia make me wonder just how brutalized they will get by a physical, defensive team like Milwaukee. The Bucks can't score, but this short number, as evidenced by Toronto's miserable effort in their last game, is coverable for the road team. I don't like either side a ton, but I can't back the Raptors right now. Tiny lean to MILWAUKEE and the OVER, because, frankly, this total just looks "eerily" high.
New Jersey Nets @ Indiana Pacers (-5.5) with a total of 193
Oddsmakers really like those totals in the low 190's so far. Jersey is quietly playing better, winning, and covering 4 of 5 games, but those all came at home. Indiana has lost 6 in a row, and is coming off getting spanked by Orlando. I desperately want to back Jersey just because of which team is hot, but Indiana in a second game back home is a better situational spot, and Jersey can't score away from home. Even tinier lean to PACERS, and small lean to the UNDER.
Detroit Pistons @ Miami Heat (-10.5) with a total of 190.5
Miami could have been on a letdown if they had won in New York last night; instead, they're going to be playing angry, if a little tired from the travel. The Pistons are on revenge from getting blasted in Miami earlier this year when in a fatigue spot themselves. Detroit has been keeping most games competitive, but I would almost prefer Miami not be on back-to-back and lay 12.5 or 13. This line is close to correct, but I think Detroit can just barely squirm under double digits with 3-point shooting. Small lean to the PISTONS and the OVER.
New York Knicks @ Atlanta Hawks (-6.5) with a total of 207
I'm torn between thinking the Knicks suffer a monster letdown off the huge win over Miami, and thinking the Knicks ride a tidal wave of momentum into this game and just blow a slumping Hawks team right out of the water. The Knicks are on revenge in this one, so it's possible they get fired back up, and looking back at what the Knicks have done this year, it seems like they take tough losses a lot harder than average, and feed off emotional wins. I know it goes against most of what I typically preach, but I don't actually think New York lets down for one more game, then maybe they collapse against Detroit. Lean to the KNICKS and the OVER.
Denver Nuggets (-10) @ Cleveland Cavaliers with a total of 216
The Cavaliers are turning into a decent value, but I want no part of this game. We're hearing now that Denver has put a special emphasis in getting wins on this road trip and shaking the tag of a "bad road team." So far, so good in that regard, beating two less-than-stellar clubs, but ones that could have posed a problem to a less focused Nuggets club. This one just screams the word, so I'll make it my lean: PASS on the side! Very slight totals lean to the OVER, if indeed Denver continues to impose its tempo.
Orlando Magic @ Chicago Bulls (-1) with a total of 188
There is no angle any stronger than revenge in this game. Chicago had just come home from an epic Circus Road trip earlier this year, and Orlando took full advantage of a tired, sluggish Bulls club, and whipped Chicago by 30 here in the Windy City. Chicago will not take kindly to that, and I expect a colossal effort, especially on the defensive end. Nothing more need be said - lean to the BULLS and the UNDER.
Washington Wizards @ Oklahoma City Thunder (-10) with a total of 206.5
The Wizards begin a 4-game in 5 night road trip through some of the West's tougher destinations. Do they finally get a road win in this set? I have to think that, yes, they do. And I mostly just say that because this might be the Wizards' toughest 4-game road trip of the year, so it makes zero sense that they'd get a win here. And because nothing makes sense, they'll win one. Will it be this one? I doubt it, but Oklahoma City is hosting Miami on Sunday, so they might look a little past the pathetic Wiz, and you know darn well that Washington's effort on the road gets more and more intense with every loss. WASHINGTON keeps it under double digits, and the Thunder suffer a sandwich letdown off the crazy OT game with Minny before the showdown with the Heat, keeping it UNDER.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Utah Jazz (-9) with a total of 215
Utah has lost 6 in a row, Minnesota has lost 5 in a row. Do we really want to put a bet on a team that can't win? Either way, we're screwed. Minnesota is on a little revenge, but that team isn't good enough to care about those types of angles, at least not as much as they might against a team near their own skill level. Minnesota might sense Utah is struggling and try to take advantage, and with Deron Williams hyperextending a wrist (and likely playing through it), the line won't reflect his injury. There may be a hair of value on MINNESOTA (lord knows I wouldn't touch Utah), and Utah's recent sloppy play rubs off and keeps it UNDER.
Sacramento Kings @ Los Angeles Lakers (-13) with a total of 199.5
A rivalry game that you know the kid brother takes more seriously, and one where said kid brother has had 2 days off to prepare. Meanwhile, the Lakers (you didn't think LA was the kid brother, did you?) is coming off a merciless beating of the Jazz, and has Boston on the horizon. This is a big-time game for the young Kings who lost by 12 and 33 to the Lakers, so far this year, and this is a meaningless distraction game for the Lakers, who likely feel they have bigger fish to fry. Lean to the KINGS and the UNDER.
Boston Celtics (-4.5) @ Phoenix Suns with a total of 202
The results of Boston's game in Portland do weigh a bit on how we break this one down, but Boston's failures in back-to-back spots are fairly well-documented this year, and the flight from Portland to Phoenix (while losing an hour) is no cheapie. This is a horrible spot for the Celts, who play the Lakers after the Suns, and this is a game that Phoenix needs to get back on track. Side note - these teams haven't played since late 2009. Thought that was kind of interesting. Lean to the SUNS and the OVER.
Charlotte Bobcats @ Golden State Warriors (-4) with a total of 203.5
More revenge at hand, I do declare. The Warriors beat the Bobcats by a single tally right after Paul Silas took over, and something tells me the new-tempo Bobcats haven't forgotten. Plus, they're rolling, winning in Sacramento and Phoenix back-to-back, and now taking aim at a Warriors team that is having all kinds of trouble defending anybody. I would love to see Charlotte keep this one close to the finish, since they play a 4th in 5 nights tomorrow against the Clippers, and we can set up to fade them then. For now, though, I prefer to ride the hot hand, especially when it's on revenge. Lean to the BOBCATS and the OVER.
Tips and Trends
Orlando Magic at Chicago Bulls
MAGIC: Orlando is in a close race with Miami for the best record in the Southeast Division. The Magic are 30-16 SU and 21-24-1 ATS overall this season. If the playoffs started today, Orlando would be the 4th seed in the Eastern Conference. The Magic are 13-10 SU and 9-13 ATS on the road this year. Orlando is 1-4 ATS this season when not listed as the betting favorite. The Magic are playing well offensively with their new stars in the fold, as they've scored more than 110 points in 3 of their last 4 games overall. The Magic are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 road games. Orlando is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Friday games. The Magic are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU win. Orlando is 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games playing on 1 days rest. The Magic are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Orlando is 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS win. The Magic are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games against the NBA Central.
Magic are 12-5-1 ATS last 18 games overall.
Over is 7-1 last 8 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600%.
Key Injuries - F Malik Allen (ankle) is questionable.
Projected Score: 89
BULLS: (PK, O/U 187.5) Chicago has been playing great basketball of late, winning 8 of their last 10 games SU. As a result of their stellar play, Chicago has a commanding 13 game lead within the Central Division. The Bulls are 31-14 SU and 25-18-2 ATS overall this year. Despite their current success, their is a black cloud over the team. PG Derrick Rose, a a potential league MVP, was just diagnosed with stomach ulcers. Losing Rose would be catastrophic to Chicago. The Bulls are 21-4 SU and 14-10 ATS in home games this season. Chicago is 15-15 ATS as the listed favorite this season. The Bulls have revenge on their minds tonight, as they lost by 29 PTS at home earlier this season to the Magic. The Bulls are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600%. Chicago is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record. The Bulls are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 games against the NBA Southeast. Chicago is 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win.
Bulls are 10-3 ATS last 13 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
Under is 5-0 last 5 games overall.
Key Injuries - G Derrick Rose (stomach) is questionable.
Projected Score: 91 (UNDER-Total of the Day)
Sacramento Kings at Los Angeles Lakers
KINGS: On the surface, it appears that Sacramento is one of the worst teams in the NBA. However, the Kings are far more competitive than their record indicates. Sacramento is 10-33 SU and 16-26-1 ATS overall this season. The Kings have already lost by double figures to the Lakers twice this season, so they are hopeful the 3rd meeting is the charm. Sacramento is 4-16 SU and 9-11 ATS in road games this year. The Kings are 14-19 ATS as the listed underdog this year. PG Tyreke Evans has been playing well of late, as he's looking to work past personal issues he's been dealing with this year. Evans is averaging team highs of 17.9 PPG and 5.5 APG this year. The Kings are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss. Sacramento is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against a team with a winning SU record. The Kings are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU loss. Sacramento is 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog of 11 PTS or more. The Kings are 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 games against the Western Conference. Sacramento is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Friday games. The Kings are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games playing on 2 days rest.
Kings are 4-1 ATS last 5 games as a road underdog.
Under is 15-6 last 21 games playing on 2 days rest.
Key Injuries - G Francisco Garcia (calf) is out.
Projected Score: 96 (SIDE of the Day)
LAKERS: (-13, O/U 198) Playing Sacramento used to be quite the battle for Los Angeles. Times have changed however, as the Lakers have won the past 8 meetings SU against the Kings. The Lakers have been successful of late thanks to their defensive intensity. Los Angeles is 33-13 SU and 21-24-1 ATS overall this season. The Lakers have a dominating lead in the Pacific Division, but are attempting to catch San Antonio for the best record in the Western Conference. Los Angeles has held 8 of their last 10 opponents under 100 PTS. G Kobe Bryant leads the Lakers in scoring, averaging 24.9 PPG. Bryant has become a better overall fit in this Lakers offense, as he's not attempting to press the issue this year. The Lakers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. Los Angeles is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite. The Lakers are 27-57 ATS in their last 84 games as a home favorite of 11 PTS or more. Los Angeles is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win. The Lakers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 2 days rest. Los Angeles is 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games against the NBA Pacific.
Lakers are 4-11 ATS last 15 home games against a team with a road winning percentage less than .400%.
Over is 14-3 last 17 games against a team with a losing SU record.
Key Injuries - F Matt Barnes (knee) is out.
Projected Score: 102
Inside the Paint - Friday
By Chris David
Back-to-Back Sets
Six teams played last night on the hardwood and the two televised games on TNT watched the Knicks beat the Heat 93-88 as 3 ½-point home underdogs before the Celtics stifled the Trail Blazers 88-78 from the Rose Garden as 4 ½-point road favorites. Shortly after those contests New York, Miami and Boston all boarded planes and tried to rest up for games today. Let’s take a closer look.
Miami vs. Detroit: The Heat has gone 7-3 straight up and 5-5 against the spread on zero days rest. All three of the losses came outside of South Beach to quality teams in the Grizzlies, Mavericks and Nuggets. Including last night’s loss, Miami is 1-5 ATS in its last six games. Detroit (5-19 SU, 11-13 ATS) isn’t a powerhouse on the road but its playing better and could make a late playoff run. The Pistons are 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS in their last five road games, and three of those games were against quality foes in the Bulls (82-95), Celtics (82-86) and Magic (103-96). The win over Orlando was solid and Detroit should’ve beaten Boston too but collapsed late. Point guard Rodney Stuckey (shoulder) is ‘out’ for tonight. The two teams played once this season on Dec. 1 and Miami rolled Detroit 97-72 as an 11 ½-point home favorite.
New York at Atlanta: The Knicks are 6-5 SU and 8-2-1 ATS when playing the second game of a back-to-back spot. This includes a road record of 3-3 SU and 5-1 ATS mark, the lone non-cover coming in an overtime setback to the Cavaliers. What’s funny about that setback is Cleveland (see below) hasn’t won since. New York earned a solid win last night even though they couldn’t buy a shot (36%) from the floor. The Knicks are catching points (6.5) tonight and they’ve been a beast on the road this season for gamblers (16-8 ATS). Plus, Atlanta does own a solid 14-7 SU mark at home but it’s only 7-14 ATS (33%). The Hawks beat the Knicks 99-90 on Nov. 27 at Madison Square Garden.
Boston at Phoenix: The Celtics are 6-5 SU and 3-8 ATS with no rest. On the road, Boston is 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS with zero days rest and the two wins came as the role of an underdog. Tonight, the C’s are laying and that’s produced a 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS mark for Doc’s team. Betting against Phoenix (17-25 ATS) has been rewarding, especially at home (8-13 ATS). After winning and covering five in row, the Suns have lost their last three. Including last night’s victory over Portland, Doc Rivers’ squad has gone 13-7 SU and 12-8 ATS on the road. Keep in mind that you have a possible look-ahead on tap for Boston with a big game looming against the L.A. Lakers on Sunday. Phoenix has gone 1-3 both SU and ATS as a home ‘dog this season. This will be the first meeting between the pair this season.
19 Straight?
On Dec. 18, Cleveland defeated New York 109-102 in overtime from Quicken Loans Arena. Since that victory, the Cavaliers have dropped 18 consecutive contests and what’s even worse is the win over the Knicks also snapped a 10-game losing streak. Doing the quick math, head coach Byron Scott has watched his Cleveland squad go 1-28 over the last 29 games. The team has had some injury issues and the roster looks a NBADL squad at times. The record for consecutive losses in a season sits at 23 and the Cavaliers have a great shot of eclipsing that number. For our purposes, bettors have been making serious cash by fading the Cavaliers (15-27 ATS). During the current losing streak, the team is 4-14 ATS and 12 of those losses were by double digits and 16 by eight points or more.
Tonight, Denver opened up as a 10-point road favorite over Cleveland and you wonder if this could be the spot that Cleveland finally wins. The Nuggets have won and covered seven of nine but six of those victories came at Pepsi Center. Denver is a different team on the road (7-13 SU, 9-11 ATS), especially on defense (107 PPG).
The pair squared off on Jan. 15 in Denver and the Nuggets ripped the Cavaliers 127-99 in wire-to-wire fashion. After this game, Cleveland plays two straight on the road against Orlando and Miami.
Cats or Dogs
We touched on this in yesterday’s ITP column and we’ll hit on it again. Should we be surprised that Charlotte (19-25) is a playoff team in the Eastern Conference? The Bobcats don’t have a lot of great pieces but they’re playing well under Paul Silas, especially as a ‘dog. The club is 10-6 overall under the new coach, and 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS when catching points. Charlotte has started its West Coast swing with two wins and is catching points at Golden State tonight. This is a revenge game too from New Year’s Eve, when the Warriors clipped the Bobcats 96-95 as 3 ½-point road underdogs. Prior to this loss, Charlotte won and covered three straight in this head-to-head series.
Total Notes
# Memphis has been an ‘under’ team on the road (16-10) this season, which includes a 3-0 run
# The Bulls have watched the ‘under’ cash in five straight
# The last eight meetings between Minnesota and Utah have gone ‘over’ the number, plus the Wolves (4-0) and Jazz (7-1) are both on ‘over’ runs as well
# Golden State has seen the ‘over’ go 8-0, plus the last 11 in Oakland have gone ‘over’ the number too
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