Friday's Best NBA Bets
Utah Jazz at Memphis Grizzlies (+1, 195)
Tony Allen is the hottest name around the Grizzlies right now – and it shouldn't be for playing cards.
Allen, the former defensive star with the Boston Celtics, has an absolute hideous jumper and was buried deep on the bench for the majority of the early going. But over the past five games he has emerged as a key cog to the team reaching the postseason. Allen is averaging 5.7 points and 1.1 assists per game, however during his hot five-game streak, he is averaging 10.6 points, 4.2 rebounds and 2.2 assists per game in more than 26 minutes of action.
"I'm a blue-collar guy. I don't mind working hard. I just had to show them [enough to gain] some trust," Allen said. "I'm just gonna play my role and stay within the realm of things … and make some lay-ups." Then he shook his head and smiled.
His recent altercation with teammate O.J. Mayo over a gambling debt could affect this playing time in the eyes of upper management, but if the team wants to win, he needs to keep seeing the floor.
"He's got a different dynamic," Grizzlies coach Lionel Hollins said. "He's always talking. Always upbeat. He's not afraid to say what he feels. And I've never seen a guy who gets his hands on so many balls and is still able to recover."
Pick: Memphis
Cleveland Cavaliers at Golden State Warriors (-9.5, 209)
The Warriors have found a pretty good way to win: give the ball to Monta Ellis.
The guard had 29 points, five rebounds and four assists in a stunning, 110-103 comeback win in New Orleans. For the season, he is averaging 25.4 points and 5.4 rebounds per game. He also is shooting a dynamite 38.8 percent from beyond the arc.
"I think it's because we had been playing good basketball," Warriors coach Keith Smart said. "Sometimes you don't get the real outcome of the game because you don't get the win. But I think our guys have had a great deal of mental toughness. That's what they're trying to get, mental toughness, to keep working when things are not going their way. Because, eventually, somewhere along the line, things are going to fall in place for you."
And despite the Warriors’ struggles, the team is 8-6 at home due to an early, road-intensive schedule. The team plays well in front of its own crowd and is a solid play as a favorite, posting a 6-4 ATS record when laying points.
The Cavs have no one to guard Ellis, meaning he should get into the lane at will and the Warriors should pick up a strong victory as they pad their home record.
Pick: Golden State
NBA Betting Preview: Rockets at Magic
By: Brad Young
Two teams going in opposite directions collide Friday night when Houston (16-19 straight up, 17-16-2 against the spread) visits Orlando (23-12 SU, 15-20 ATS). The Rockets enter this matchup mired in a three-game SU losing skid, languishing in a fourth-place tie in the Southwest Division with Memphis.
Orlando is currently enjoying a seven-game SU winning streak (6-1 ATS) after retooling its team with a recent trade. The Magic remain in second place in the Southeast Division standings behind Miami, and would be the fourth seed in the Eastern Conference if the regular season ended today.
Houston continued its downward spiral with Wednesday’s setback to Portland as 4 ½-point home ‘chalk,’ 103-100. The combined 203 points eclipsed the 194 ½-point closing total, helping the ‘over’ improve to 4-1 the previous five outings. The Rockets are now just 0-4-2 ATS the last six games.
Houston had a six-point lead entering the fourth quarter before being outscored, 29-20. The Rockets dropped the matchup despite leading in rebounding (43-34) and fast-break points (20-6). Houston finished the game by shooting 47 percent (33-of-70) from the field and 55 percent (11-of-20) from 3-point land.
Guard Kevin Martin scored a season-high 45 points in the setback on 13-of-18 shooting, while forward Shane Battier was the only other Rockets player to reach double digits in scoring with 13. Center Jordan Hill had nine and nine rebounds in the loss, while power forward Luis Scola added six and 12.
Orlando upended Milwaukee Wednesday as a 12-point home favorite, 97-87, ending a string of six straight covers. The combined 184 points failed to topple the 188 ½-point NBA odds, enabling the ‘under’ to cash the second consecutive contest.
The Magic prevailed by shooting 46 percent (35-of-77) from the field, but just 23 percent (5-of-22) from behind the arc. Orlando delivered more assists in the victory (23-11), but was outrebounded by the Bucks (48-44).
Orlando had six players reach double digits in scoring, led by center Dwight Howard’s 28 points and 13 rebounds. Guard Jason Richardson accounted for 13 and three in the victory, while forward Hedo Turkoglu provided 13 and four.
The Magic have beaten Houston the previous two meetings SU and ATS, but this is the first encounter this season. The ‘under’ has gone 5-1 the last six games in this series. The Rockets are 12-4 ATS the past 16 meetings.
Houston guard Aaron Brooks is ‘questionable’ versus the Magic due to an ankle injury, while center Chuck Hayes (ankle) is ‘out.’ The Rockets follow this matchup with Saturday’s home game against Utah. Houston has seen the ‘under’ go 16-5 the previous 21 games against Southeast Division opponents.
Orlando ranks fifth in the league in points allowed (92.9), ninth in rebounds per game (42.3) and 16th in points per game (98.1). The Magic embark on a tough five-game road trip following this contest against Dallas, New Orleans, Oklahoma City, Minnesota and Boston. Orlando has struggled to a 3-11 ATS ledger its past 14 Friday games.
ESPN will provide coverage of Friday’s matchup beginning at 5:05 p.m. PT from Orlando’s Amway Center.
Inside the Paint - Friday
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Three Straight?
San Antonio (29-6 straight up, 20-14 against the spread) still owns the best record in the NBA but the club has its first speed bump of the season. After getting lit up by New York (115-128) on Tuesday at Madison Square Garden, the Spurs came up short again on Wednesday at Boston (103-105). It’s the first time this season that head coach Greg Popovich and his troops suffered back-to-back losses. Does the club bounce back on Friday when it visits Indiana (14-18 SU, 14-16 ATS)? The Spurs have won seven (4-3 ATS) consecutive battles against the Pacers, including a 122-109 shootout win on opening night (Oct. 27) this season.
Indiana has played better at home (9-8 SU, 8-8 ATS) this season but Jim O’Brien’s team has defined inconsistency. The Pacers may’ve covered their last two games (1-1 SU), but their record as a home underdog (1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS) this season isn’t impressive at all. And when you delve into those numbers further, the lone win occurred on Nov. 9 against Denver (144-113) in a game that Indiana couldn’t miss a shot. The other setbacks came to playoff contenders in the Thunder, Hawks, Lakers and Celtics. Seems like the Spurs fit in this bunch, which is why they’re favored at Conseco Fieldhouse.
Total players might want to make a note that Indiana has watched the ‘under’ cash in seven straight games and the ‘under’ has gone 12-5 at home this season. Keep in mind that San Antonio has watched the ‘over’ go 10-4 ATS on the road, and that includes five winning tickets in their last five away from home.
Abracadabra!
Orlando (23-12 SU, 14-19 ATS)lost its first two games with the new trio of Hedo Turkoglu, Jason Richardson and Gilbert Arenas, but have been on fire since. The Magic have won seven straight games, and they’ve helped gamblers by covering six. Orlando could be 7-0 ATS during this run but it failed to cover as a 12-point favorite in its 97-87 win over Milwaukee on Wednesday. Standing in the Magic’s way for their eighth straight win on Friday will be Houston (16-19 SU, 17-16 ATS). The Rockets had a great December, posting an impressive 12-4 record (10-4-2 ATS) and three of the losses were on the road. Unfortunately the club has opened January with three consecutive setbacks, which includes a 100-103 home loss to Portland on Wednesday. Last season, the Magic swept the two-game series over the Rockets, winning both games by 18 and 15. The ‘under’ went 2-0. This contest will be televised nationally on ESPN with a starting time of 8:05 p.m. EST.
Road Chalk
Miami (28-9 SU, 18-18 ATS) continues to put the pedal to the metal after its 9-8 start. The club has won 19 of 20 and owns a seven-game winning streak heading into the weekend. The most impressive feat during this run has been the Heat’s defense, which has only given up 100-plus points twice and the team still managed to beat up-tempo squads in Houston (125-119) and Golden State (114-107). Gamblers backing Miami for the past 20 games have watched the squad produce a solid 13-6-1 ATS ledger.
When will it end? Coach Erik Spoelstra and his troops begin a five-game road trip in Milwaukee (13-20 SU, 13-19 ATS) on Friday before heading out West to Portland on Sunday. After the Trail Blazers, the real test begins with three games in four nights against the Clippers, Nuggets and Bulls. Back to tonight, the Bucks will be looking to already avenge two losses to the Heat this season, the last defeat coming on Tuesday (89-101) in South Florida. Milwaukee actually led the Heat by four at the half in the most recent loss, but was outscored 54-38 in the final two quarters.
Miami opened as a 6½-point road favorite. The Bucks have gone 1-2 both SU and ATS as home ‘dogs this year, the lone win coming last Saturday against a banged-up Dallas squad. Milwaukee (10-5) has been an ‘under’ team at home this season, plus the Heat (12-6) has also leaned toward low-scoring affairs on the road. The total is hovering around 183 points.
Late-Night Love
Three late-night games on the pro hoops hardwoods give gamblers an opportunity to press or chase their bets. Two of the contests are non-conference affairs, plus one of the battles will be nationally televised. Let’s take a closer look.
New York (20-14 SU, 22-12 ATS) at Phoenix (14-19 SU, 12-19 ATS): The Suns are done! Those betting on the NBA nightly know this, yet the public perception still thinks Phoenix is legit, especially at home. And the recent acquisition of Vince Carter via trade made the team worse. The Suns are 1-6 SU and 3-4 ATS in their last seven and the lone win came against Detroit (92-75). New York visits the desert as a two-point underdog and this will be the first of a four-game road set for the club. When you look at the next three opponents (Lakers, Blazers, Jazz), for the Knicks, this could be the winner. Plus, it helps to know that New York has gone 10-7 SU and 13-4 ATS on the road.
Cleveland (8-27 SU, 12-21 ATS) at Golden State (14-21 SU, 19-16 ATS): When you see the Warriors listed close to double-digit favorites (9.5), it tells you a lot. Golden State, a team that plays no defense, shouldn’t be laying heavy wood to anybody except for maybe Cleveland. The Cavs stink and they’re garbage on the road (3-15 SU, 6-10 ATS) too. However, if you bet the NBA on a regular basis, you know it’s smart to fade a team in their first game back after a long roadie, which is Golden State. The Warriors went 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS, giving up 100-plus in four of the contests. It’s never smart to bet on a team that has dropped eight straight (1-7 ATS) and 18 of 19, but the home team could be flat tonight.
New Orleans (21-15 SU, 18-16 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (25-11 SU, 16-19 ATS): Since losing three straight at the end of December, the Lakers have won four of five, including a 99-95 win over Phoenix on Wednesday. Even though the Purple and Gold already own a 9 ½-game in the Pacific Division, the team certainly isn’t clicking on all cylinders. The Lakers look like they go through the motions and it’s been evident at the betting counter. The team is 2-6 ATS in the last eight games and their 6-11 ATS mark at Staples Center is far from good. The books have adjusted and only made L.A. a 7 ½-point home favorite over New Orleans on Friday. The Hornets haven’t been a great bet on the road (7-10 SU, 7-8 ATS) this season, plus their average (91 PPG) has helped the ‘under’ go 14-3. The Lakers have gone 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS in the last five against New Orleans, including a 15-point win (103-88) in the “Big Easy” on Dec. 29. The ‘over’ has gone 4-1 during this span.
vegasinsider.com
Tips and Trends
New York Knicks at Phoenix Suns
KNICKS: New York continues their feel good season, as they are 20-14 SU and 22-11-1 ATS overall. The Knicks are currently in 2nd place in the Atlantic division, trailing just Boston. New York is 10-7 SU and 13-4 ATS in road games this year. New York is also 13-3 ATS as the listed underdog this year, proving just how underrated this team really is. The Knicks lead the NBA in scoring at 107.8 PPG. F A'mare Stoudemire is averaging 26.4 PPG this year, 2nd most in the NBA. The Knicks are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games as a road underdog. New York is 15-3 ATS in their last 18 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The Knicks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 2 days rest. New York is 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games following an ATS win. The Knicks are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following a SU win. New York is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Friday games.
Knicks are 9-0 ATS last 9 games against the Western Conference.
Over is 13-6-1 last 20 games as a road underdog.
Key Injuries - F Danilo Gallinari (knee) is out.
Projected Score: 113
SUNS: (-2, O/U 218.5) Phoenix is really struggling, and it appears it's just a matter of time before this team is rebuilt. The Suns have lost 7 of their last 10 games overall, and are just 14-19 SU and 12-19-2 ATS for the season. Phoenix is 8-8 SU and 6-10 ATS at home this year. The Suns are just 5-8 ATS as the listed favorite this year. Phoenix is averaging 106.1 PPG this year, the 3rd most in the NBA. G Vince Carter is averaging 16.8 PPG in the 4 games he's played for Phoenix. The Suns are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. The Suns are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against the NBA Atlantic. Phoenix is 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a SU loss. The Suns are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.
Suns are 1-4 ATS last 5 games as a home favorite.
Under is 4-0 last 4 home games against a team with a winning road record.
Key Injuries - None Reported.
Projected Score: 116 (OVER-Total of the Day)
NBA RoundUp for 1/7
by Dan Bebe
New Jersey Nets @ Washington Wizards (-5.5) with a total of 189
Washington just really does not enjoy playing on the road. I thought they had a nice shot to steal one against a Philadelphia team in a letdown spot, but they managed to throw that one away with some poor 4th quarter defense. New Jersey had been playing just horrid basketball, home and road, but inexplicably came up with a big home win over the Chicago Bulls in their last game. So, from a momentum standpoint, the Nets seemed to play with a solid level of energy, and if they bring that same defensive tenacity to this one, they could really force some big turnover numbers. Of course, Washington remains a relatively decent home team, so we can't write them off, and they lost to Jersey in mid-December, so revenge could be sneaking into the equation, but they still would have to cover 5.5. This one is a close call for me, but I do give a tiny nod to WASHINGTON and the UNDER.
San Antonio Spurs (-6) @ Indiana Pacers with a total of 200.5
This game confuses me a little, I will admit. The Spurs are coming off back-to-back losses, so they're in sort of uncharted waters this year, in terms of how well they've been playing. Indiana has seemed to slip into a more O'Brien-y style of game, relying ultra-heavily on small lineups, sacrificing defense for offense, and sacrificing consistency for the potential to explode on any given night. If Roy Hibbert could get his act back together, maybe he would force his Coach to play a bigger lineup, but his recent struggles have given O'Brien every opening he could want to go to small-ball. I don't trust Indiana right now, though catching 6 points at home is pretty solid for a middle-tier team. I believe San Antonio is definitely overvalued, so they're not necessarily a team I'd want to back, but I don't really feel all that excited about Indy, either. PASSEROO on the side, with a slight totals lean to the OVER.
Chicago Bulls @ Philadelphia 76ers (Pk) with a total of 191
This is, classically, a spot where I'd like to back Philadelphia, though it's not as strong an angle as some of the others we discuss. Philadelphia is in their 2nd game back home off an 8-game road trip, and though they did, in fact, shoot the ball extremely well in their first game home, the second game is usually where a team finds its footing. Chicago, meanwhile, had its 5-game win streak snapped with an ugly performance in Jersey, and looking at Chicago's season, after the Circus Road Trip, they've played a very home-heavy schedule, and I think people aren't really seeing that. Chicago has played 11 home games in their last 16 before this current road trip, and they won most of 'em, but Chicago hasn't actually been that impressive on the road, at least lately. They're just 2-5 ATS on the road in December and January, and Philadelphia got beat by Chicago by 45 points the last time these teams met. Revenge much? Lean to PHILADELPHIA and the UNDER.
Toronto Raptors @ Boston Celtics (-9.5) with a total of 199
This spread feels pretty low, given that Boston was laying 6 on the road in Toronto just 5 days ago. Yes, Bargnani is back for Toronto, so that makes them stronger, but 2.5 points stronger? I don't know. Regardless, if Boston cares, this is a team they can lock down and hold to 85-90 points. But, does Boston care? They play in Chicago tomorrow, so Toronto might be the team more interested in showing up, and they're coming off a nice offensive game against the pathetic Cavs. Boston is playing the sandwich game between San Antonio and the aforementioned Chicago, too. This line feels low to me, but I happen to think there are a few reasons the line is hovering where it is. Slight lean to TORONTO and the OVER.
Houston Rockets @ Orlando Magic (-10) with a total of 207
Don't look now, but Houston has stopped playing defense, entirely! The team is 4-1 to the Over the last 5 games, and the only reason they're not pitching a perfecto in that stretch is because they clanked their way to only 85 points up in Portland. They've given up 100 points in each of those 5, and over 110 in 2 of the 5. Houston just can't stop anyone, and Orlando's monster size advantage with Howard, and suddenly impressive offense would seem to be a pretty strong test for Houston. The way I see this one, if Houston shoots 55% from 3-point land, they cover, but probably still lose, since they just give up too many points, but if they struggle to shoot from the perimeter, this has the potential to get ugly. I hate to lay the chalk, so I'm most likely just going to toss this one aside and keep moving, but with a gun to my head, I'd actually lean ORLANDO, and the OVER.
Utah Jazz @ Memphis Grizzlies (-1) with a total of 195
Did the loss to Atlanta wake up the Jazz? That, to me, is the only question we need answered in this game, because outside of that, this is Memphis's game to lose. I wonder if the betting public has completely caught on, or if we might be sneaking in 1 game ahead of the curve. Heaven knows we watch enough basketball to know who's playing well, and we're probably already a game late on the real value, since Memphis is now favored by a point, but with Utah beating Memphis by 6 in Salt Lake City (failing to cover), and Memphis really playing its best basketball of the season this very week, I think you just have to go with the warm team and go against the cool one. If Utah jumps up and turns things around overnight, more power to them, but they look tired and listless without Millsap giving them energy points, and I wonder if Deron Williams might be putting too much on his own plate. Lean to MEMPHIS and the UNDER.
Portland Trailblazers (-3) @ Minnesota Timberwolves with a total of 200
This game is interesting, mostly because Portland is finding ways to get it done, even without Brandon Roy, and I think we have to give a ton of credit to Patty Mills and of course, LaMarcus Aldridge. Portland is in a weird spot, playing a team they beat at home by only a handful, now on the road, right before a home date with the Miami Heat. Minnesota has shown an ability to get off to quick starts and rebound well, and one of Portland's strongest attributes is getting on that offensive glass. This line is extremely low, but again, I can't help but think that Portland is not in the best of spots. My greatest concern with backing Minnesota is that they seem to be finding ways to lose close games, dropping a heartbreaker at home to Denver, a heartbreaker on the road in Boston, and with a win sandwiched in, also losing in OT to Charlotte. If this one comes down to it, won't Minnesota lose by 3 or more? Despite all that, I still have to favor the WOLVES by a shade, and the OVER.
Miami Heat (-6.5) @ Milwaukee Bucks with a total of 183
This is a bit of a revenge spot for the Bucks, as they lost by a dozen to the Heat in Miami just a couple days back. This is also the start of a 5-game road trip for the red-hot Heat, and really, for as badly as I want to back Milwaukee, the darn Heat just aren't showing any signs of slowing down. The lines are slowly inflating more and more, and after laying just 9.5 at home, laying 6.5 on the road is is an awful lot of points. That either tells us that the line at home was eerily low, or this one is eerily high. Either way, Milwaukee is a team that is strong of will, and if John Salmons can keep up his nice pace, and actually get some help from other guys now that the Bucks are back home, they might just jump up and surprise someone. Lean to the BUCKS and the UNDER.
New York Knicks @ Phoenix Suns (-1.5) with a total of 218.5
I have almost no faith in Phoenix these days, and this line looks almost too easy to me, but then, maybe I'm giving the rest of the World too much credit? Maybe not. Who knows? Either way, the Knicks have what the Suns don't, and I am really curious to see how Amar'e plays against his old team, and maybe moreso, how his old teams plays against the man that spurned them and went to the Big Apple. That emotional angle is huge, no doubt about it, and I'm not 100% certain how it plays out. You have to think Amar'e is going to get whatever he wants, and no one understands Steve Nash better than Mike D'Antoni, so with those intangibles in our back pocket, we're just weighing if we think Phoenix has anyone on its roster that can overcome Amar'e. I don't think so, and I lean KNICKS and UNDER.
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Golden State Warriors (-9.5) with a total of 209
Normally I would look to fade a team in the first game home off a 5-game road trip, but normally they wouldn't be playing a team that actually had to travel farther, and are in nearly as bad a spot. The Warriors are returning from a 5-game set that took them through the Southeast, and ended in New Orleans. So, by all accounts, they should be tired, but then, they throttled the Hornets in the 4th quarter of their last game on the trip, and that right there is completely bonkers. The Cavs, meanwhile, should have had an edge in this one, but they're actually coming from Toronto, one of the most distant locales in the league from California teams. This game has sluggishness written all over it, and my first look would be to the UNDER though even that is tainted by Cleveland's terrible defense. As far as the side goes, I suppose I'd still have to take the points against a team with minimal defense and lean CAVS, but that's a stretch.
New Orleans Hornets @ Los Angeles Lakers (-7.5) with a total of 190
The question here is how much revenge is a factor. The Lakers stomped on the Hornets on the road, getting what felt like a pretty rare win for a slumping championship team from LA. The Lakers have, however, won 4 of 5 SU, even though they continue to struggle with covering spreads. This game might not be too different. The Hornets are a defensive-minded team that tends to have issues putting the ball in the hoop. Lately, the Lakers are a hyper-talented team that has had issues with energy. If you're not playing with a ton of fire, it's going to be hard to cover 7.5 points against a team on revenge. Think about this line for a moment. The Lakers were laying 3 in New Orleans on the second night of a back-to-back. By that token, they should be laying more like 10-11 at home, but we're not even in the vicinity! Does that mean this line is a monster value on LA, or ultra-low because the Hornets are going to win the game outright? Ah, good old line analysis. I tend to lean towards the HORNETS bringing the noise (and maybe the funk), and the total squeaking UNDER.