Game Of The Day: Boston Celtics at Atlanta Hawks
By JON KUIPERIJ
The Eastern Conference-leading Boston Celtics visit the Atlanta Hawks on ESPN, renewing acquaintances in what is becoming one of the better rivalries in the NBA.
History lesson
Atlanta gave the Celtics their toughest challenge on Boston’s way to the NBA championship two years ago, extending their first-round series to seven games. The Celtics won all four regular-season contests between the teams last year, but the Hawks won 97-86 in Boston earlier this season.
Injury report
Decimated by injuries the last couple weeks, the Celtics are slowly getting back to full strength.
Forward Paul Pierce returned to the lineup against Miami Wednesday after missing the previous five games with a knee injury. Point guard Rajon Rondo also came back against the Heat after sitting out a game with a pulled hamstring.
The Celtics remain without forward Kevin Garnett (knee), who has missed the last three games. Guard Eddie House, who sat out Wednesday's game with the flu, is questionable for Friday. Atlanta has no significant injuries to report.
Just getting by
Thanks in part to injuries, the Celtics have been far from dominant.
Ten of the Celtics' first 16 victories came by double-digit margins, but only two of their last nine wins have come by 10 points or more. Boston is 5-8 against the spread in its last 13 games and lost three in a row on a recent road trip.
"We haven't been playing that well and we're still at the top of the conference, one of the top two or three records in the NBA," Pierce told reporters. "We know that when we get healthy and have everybody out there, we're going to be a dominant team."
Soaring no more
The Hawks haven't exactly been tearing up the NBA themselves. After starting the year with an 11-2 run (both straight up and against the spread), Atlanta is 3-6 straight up in its last nine. The Hawks snapped a four-game losing streak with a 30-point win over everyone's favorite tonic, the hapless Nets, Wednesday.
The team held a players-only meeting the day before the rout of New Jersey.
"I think that guys just really needed to talk a little bit," guard Jamal Crawford told the media. "You know what you need to do, but it's sometimes good to put it on the table, and that's what we did."
Trends
The home team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings between the Hawks and Celtics. Boston is 1-4 ATS in its last four visits to Philips Arena. The over has cashed in 7 of the last 10 games in the series, and four of the past five in Atlanta.
Friday's Best NBA Bets
Toronto Raptors at Philadelphia 76ers (-1.5, 208)
How do you milk a dinosaur?
The comedic answer is “very carefully”. However, for bettors, milking a dinosaur has been as easy (and safe) as putting down a play on the Toronto Raptors.
The Dinos have gone 11-5 over the past month, covering the spread in nine of those contests. In recent weeks, Toronto has won seven of its last eight games, going 6-2 against the spread. The Raptors’ most recent win came Wednesday night, defeating the Orlando Magic 108-103 as 8-point road underdogs.
“We came out with a focus, a different mentality where we hit first,’’ point guard Jarrett Jack told the Toronto Star. “We have to keep rolling.”
Toronto and Philadelphia have yet to meet this season. Their most recent game was a 111-104 Raptors’ win as 2-point home dogs last April.
Pick: Raptors
Los Angeles Lakers at Portland Trail Blazers (+3, 193.5)
If Wednesday’s loss to the Clippers wasn’t an indication of how valuable Pau Gasol is to the Lakers, the drop off in offense since the All-Star forward went down sure is.
With Gasol sidelined with a strained hamstring, the Lakers have scored just 88 and 91 points in their last two games after averaging 104 points per game on the season. Gasol is scoring almost 17 points a night and making life much easier on fellow forwards Andrew Bynum and Lamar Odom by drawing extra attention from defenders.
Against the Clippers, the Lakers’ triangle offense was out of sorts. They managed to shoot only 38 percent from the field, 31 percent from 3-point range, had just eight assists in the first half and committed 12 turnovers.
"There was just too much individual play," coach Phil Jackson told reporters.
Those last two games have played under the total after Los Angeles had eclipsed the number in five straight games. The Lakers have an over/under record of 17-17-1 on the year.
Pick: Under
Friday Night Card
By Kevin Rogers
The Friday night card in the NBA is one of the better slates we have seen in awhile, with 12 games to choose from. The two nationally televised games involve four of the top teams in the league, with Atlanta hosting Boston and the Cavs traveling to Denver.
Celtics at Hawks - 8:00 PM EST
Atlanta and Boston renew acquaintances at Philips Arena, as the Hawks look for their second straight win following a four-game skid. The Celtics, meanwhile, are coming off a wild overtime victory at Miami, improving to 14-4 SU on the road.
Mike Woodson's club went up to the TD Banknorth Garden in mid-November and handed the Celtics a 97-86 loss. Boston hit just one of 15 attempts from three-point range, while getting outrebounded by Atlanta, 47-29. The victory by the Hawks was the first in the last ten tries in Beantown, dating back to January 2007.
Boston is still playing without the injured Kevin Garnett, but Paul Pierce and Rajon Rondo returned to the C's lineup for Wednesday's dramatic win over the Heat. Rondo was the hero, sending the game into overtime with a layup at the buzzer. The Celtics are 9-9 ATS on the road, but have covered only three of their last eight away from home. Boston is a strong 3-1 ATS as a road underdog, picking up outright victories at Cleveland, San Antonio, and Orlando.
The Hawks began the season 11-2, but all of the sudden are getting exposed against better competition. Atlanta is 2-5 SU the last seven games against teams above .500, including losses to the Cavs twice, Heat, Nuggets, and Magic.
Both teams have been solid ATS off SU victories, with Boston going 8-4 ATS on the road and Atlanta owning an 8-3 ATS mark at home. The Celtics did capture both games in Atlanta last season, winning 88-85 last December, and 99-95 this past March.
Cavaliers at Nuggets - 10:30 PM EST
Two of the top three picks from the vaunted 2003 NBA Draft will meet up for the first time this season at the Pepsi Center when the Nuggets host the Cavs. Carmelo Anthony has missed the last three games for Denver with a knee injury, and is considered a game-time decision. Chauncey Billups is also questionable for the game, as the Nuggets' point guard has sat out eight of the last nine games with a groin injury.
Denver has obviously struggled without its top two players, going 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS over the last nine games. The Nuggets are coming off a controversial 122-121 home victory over the Warriors on Tuesday. The last-second issue stemmed from a questionable foul call on Golden State's Monta Ellis, in which he was whistled for making contact with J.R. Smith on a desperation three-pointer (Smith nailed two free throws for the win).
LeBron James and the Cavs have won 12 of their past 14, including a 7-1 SU mark the last eight on the road. Some of Cleveland's most impressive wins have come away from Quicken Loans Arena, with the Cavs knocking off the Lakers, Hawks, and Suns over the last three weeks. Cleveland's defense is stepping up, allowing six of its last seven opponents below 100 points (the 'under' has hit five times in this stretch).
The Cavs swept the season series last season from the Nuggets, including a 105-88 victory at Pepsi Center as two-point underdogs last December. The Nuggets are just 6-11 ATS this season when facing a team off a win, but five of those covers have come at home.
What else to watch for:
The Wizards play their second game without the suspended Gilbert Arenas, hosting the Magic at the Verizon Center. Orlando sits in a very unfamiliar position, losers of three straight. The Magic have beaten the Wizards in eight of the last nine meetings, with five road victories coming by at least nine points. However, Stan Van Gundy's team is 2-7 ATS in the last nine on the road, including consecutive losses at Chicago and Indiana. Washington is only 4-10 ATS at home this season, but has picked up covers as 'dogs against Boston and Cleveland.
The battle of the Lone Star State takes place in San Antonio when the hot Spurs host the Mavs. Gregg Popovich's squad is 12-3 SU and 10-4-1 ATS over the last 15 games, including a 5-2-1 ATS mark the last eight at home. Dallas is a solid 12-6 SU/ATS on the road, but the Mavs own a 3-7 ATS record against division foes.
The Heat begins a six-game road trip in Phoenix, trying to bounce back from the overtime loss to the Celtics. The Suns have won four of their past five, while going 'over' the total in seven of the last eight. Phoenix has turned into an 'over' machine at home, finishing 'over' in each of the last six in the Valley, including Wednesday's 118-110 victory over Houston.
The Blazers and Lakers meet up for the first time this season, as both teams are coming off losses in their last game. The home team has won each of the last nine meetings, with the Blazers going 4-0 SU/ATS at the Rose Garden. Following Wednesday's loss to the Clippers, the Lakers are 0-4 ATS as a favorite of 5 ½ points or less.
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Toronto Raptors vs. Philadelphia 76ers
The Toronto Raptors and the Philadelphia 76ers will both be trying to pick up a win on Friday when they battle at Wachovia Center.
Andrea Bargnani and Chris Bosh both score 18 points each to lead Toronto to a 108-103 upset win over Orlando on Wednesday night.
The Raps covered the 7-point spread, while the final score played OVER the posted total of 203.5.
Samuel Dalembert went for 20 points and 20 boards for Philadelphia in its 104-97 loss to Washington on Tuesday night.
Washington cashed as 4.5-point road underdogs, while the game played UNDER the 206.5-point total listed by sportsbooks.
Current streak:
Toronto has won 2 straight games.
Team records:
Toronto: 18-18 SU, 17-19 ATS
Philadelphia: 10-24 SU, 14-20 ATS
Toronto most recently:
When playing on Friday are 3-7
Before playing Boston are 5-5
After playing Orlando are 6-4
After a win are 7-3
Philadelphia most recently:
When playing on Friday are 3-7
Before playing Detroit are 4-6
After playing Washington are 3-7
After a loss are 4-6
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Toronto's last 9 games when playing Philadelphia
Toronto is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Philadelphia's last 9 games when playing Toronto
Philadelphia is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games when playing Toronto
Philadelphia is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Toronto
Philadelphia is 5-15-1 ATS in its last 21 games when playing at home against Toronto
Next up:
Toronto home to Boston, Sunday, January 10
Philadelphia at Detroit, Saturday, January 9
Orlando Magic vs. Washington Wizards
The Orlando Magic and the Washington Wizards will both be gunning for a victory on Friday when they meet at Verizon Center.
Rashard Lewis scored 24 points, while Dwight Howard had 20 for Orlando in a 108-103 loss to Toronto on Wednesday night.
The Magic did not cover the 7-point spread, while the final score played OVER the posted total of 203.5.
Antawn Jamison scored 26 points to lead Washington in a 121-98 loss to Cleveland on Wednesday night.
The Wizards did not cover the 13-point spread, while the final score played OVER the day's posted total of 196.5.
Current streak:
Orlando has lost 3 straight games.
Team records:
Orlando: 24-11 SU, 17-16-2 ATS
Washington: 11-22 SU, 12-21 ATS
Orlando most recently:
When playing on Friday are 7-3
Before playing Atlanta are 5-5
After playing Toronto are 5-5
After a loss are 7-3
Washington most recently:
When playing on Friday are 3-7
Before playing New Orleans are 8-2
After playing Cleveland are 4-6
After a loss are 3-7
A few trends to consider:
Orlando is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Washington
Orlando is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
Orlando is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Orlando's last 6 games when playing Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games when playing Orlando
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 9 games when playing at home against Orlando
Washington is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Washington is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Next up:
Orlando home to Atlanta, Saturday, January 9
Washington home to New Orleans, Sunday, January 10
Boston Celtics vs. Atlanta Hawks
The Boston Celtics and the Atlanta Hawks will both be trying to pick up a win on Friday when they battle at Philips Arena.
The Celtics forced overtime and came away with a 112-106 win over the Heat on Wednesday. The Celtics won the game as a 1-point underdog, while the 218 points sailed OVER the posted total of 186.
Rajon Rondo netted 21 points and dished out eight assists for the Celtics, who got 19 points from Kendrick Perkins.
Jamal Crawford had 29 points to lead Atlanta to an easy 119-89 win over New Jersey on Wednesday night.
The Hawks covered the 14-point spread, while the final score played OVER the day's posted total of 199.5.
Current streak:
Boston has won 2 straight games.
Team records:
Boston: 25-8 SU, 15-18 ATS
Atlanta: 22-12 SU, 23-11 ATS
Boston most recently:
When playing on Friday are 7-3
Before playing Toronto are 8-2
After playing Miami are 7-3
After a win are 8-2
Atlanta most recently:
When playing on Friday are 3-7
Before playing Orlando are 4-6
After playing New Jersey are 7-3
After a win are 5-5
A few trends to consider:
Boston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Atlanta
Boston is 16-4 SU in its last 20 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Boston is 14-4 SU in its last 18 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Atlanta's last 15 games at home
Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Boston
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing at home against Boston
Atlanta is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games at home
Next up:
Boston at Toronto, Sunday, January 10
Atlanta at Orlando, Saturday, January 9
Indiana Pacers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
The Indiana Pacers and the Minnesota Timberwolves will both be gunning for a victory on Friday when they meet at Target Center.
Roy Hibbert went for 26 points, eight rebounds, and four blocks to lead the Pacers over the Magic 97-90 on Tuesday night.
Indiana cashed as 11-point home underdogs, while the teams played UNDER the 210-point total posted by sportsbooks.
Al Jefferson collected a double-double with 26 points and 14 rebounds in the Timberwolves 107-101 loss to the Warriors on Wednesday. The Timberwolves were 2.5-point favorites in that game, while the 208 points went UNDER the posted total of 223.
Current streak:
Minnesota has lost 5 straight games.
Team records:
Indiana: 11-23 SU, 13-21 ATS
Minnesota: 7-29 SU, 16-19-1 ATS
Indiana most recently:
When playing on Friday are 5-5
Before playing Oklahoma City are 5-5
After playing Orlando are 6-4
After a win are 5-5
Minnesota most recently:
When playing on Friday are 4-6
Before playing Chicago are 7-3
After playing Golden State are 3-7
After a loss are 3-7
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indiana's last 5 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indiana's last 5 games
Indiana is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Indiana's last 11 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing Indiana
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 7 games when playing at home against Indiana
Minnesota is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Indiana
Next up:
Indiana at Oklahoma City, Saturday, January 9
Minnesota at Chicago, Saturday, January 9
Utah Jazz vs. Memphis Grizzlies
The Utah Jazz and the Memphis Grizzlies will both be gunning for a victory on Friday when they meet at FedExForum.
Carlos Boozer tossed in 20 points and grabbed six rebounds to lead the Jazz over the Grizzlies 117-94 on Wednesday. The Jazz covered the 5.5-point spread, while the combined score made it OVER the posted total of 203.5.
C.J. Miles poured in a game-high 24 points for the Jazz, and Wesley Matthews added 15 in the win.
Zach Randolph had 18 points and seven rebounds for the Grizzlies, and Sam Young added 22 points in the loss.
Team records:
Utah: 19-16 SU, 19-16 ATS
Memphis: 17-17 SU, 19-15 ATS
Utah most recently:
When playing on Friday are 4-6
Before playing Dallas are 5-5
After playing Memphis are 8-2
After a win are 4-6
Memphis most recently:
When playing on Friday are 2-8
Before playing Charlotte are 4-6
After playing Utah are 2-8
After a loss are 7-3
A few trends to consider:
Utah is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Memphis
Utah is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Memphis
Utah is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Memphis
Utah is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Memphis
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Memphis's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Memphis's last 6 games when playing Utah
The total has gone UNDER in 20 of Memphis's last 24 games when playing at home against Utah
Memphis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Next up:
Utah at Dallas, Saturday, January 9
Memphis at Charlotte, Saturday, January 9
New Jersey Nets vs. New Orleans Hornets
The fans at New Orleans Arena will be treated to a game between the New Jersey Nets and the New Orleans Hornets when they take their seats on Friday.
Yi Jianlian scored 19 points and grabbed 11 boards for New Jersey in a 119-89 loss to Atlanta on Wednesday night.
The Nets did not cover the 14-point spread, while the final score played OVER the day's posted total of 199.5.
The Hornets extended its win streak to four games on Wednesday withn a 97-92 win over the Thunder. The Hornets managed to cover the 4.5-point spread, but the teams played UNDER the posted total of 192.5.
David West drained 19 points and hauled down eight boards, while Emeka Okafor added 15 points.
Current streak:
New Jersey has lost 3 straight games.
New Orleans has won 4 straight games.
Team records:
New Jersey: 3-32 SU, 11-23-1 ATS
New Orleans: 17-16 SU, 16-17 ATS
New Jersey most recently:
When playing on Friday are 4-6
Before playing San Antonio are 4-6
After playing Atlanta are 3-7
After a loss are 1-9
New Orleans most recently:
When playing on Friday are 4-6
Before playing Washington are 6-4
After playing Oklahoma City are 5-5
After a win are 6-4
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Jersey's last 6 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Jersey's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Jersey's last 6 games on the road
New Jersey is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of New Orleans's last 11 games
New Orleans is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing New Jersey
Next up:
New Jersey at San Antonio, Sunday, January 10
New Orleans at Washington, Sunday, January 10
Dallas Mavericks vs. San Antonio Spurs
The Dallas Mavericks and the San Antonio Spurs will both be trying to pick up a win on Friday when they battle at AT&T Center.
Jason Terry dropped 26 points off the bench to lead the Mavericks over the Pistons 98-93 on Tuesday night.
Dallas couldn't cover as 8.5-point home favorites, while the teams played OVER the 189.5-point total listed by oddsmakers.
The Spurs dominated the fourth quarter to help them defeat the Pistons 112-92 on Wednesday. The Spurs covered the 10-point spread, and the combined score sailed OVER the posted total of 188.
Tony Parker led the way with 23 points and dished out six assists, while Richard Jefferson netted 17 points in the win.
Team records:
Dallas: 24-11 SU, 17-18 ATS
San Antonio: 21-12 SU, 18-14-1 ATS
Dallas most recently:
When playing on Friday are 9-1
Before playing Utah are 7-3
After playing Detroit are 7-3
After a win are 5-5
San Antonio most recently:
When playing on Friday are 8-2
Before playing New Jersey are 7-3
After playing Detroit are 8-2
After a win are 7-3
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games on the road
Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing San Antonio
Dallas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Antonio
Dallas is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
San Antonio is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
San Antonio is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
San Antonio is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
San Antonio is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Next up:
Dallas home to Utah, Saturday, January 9
San Antonio home to New Jersey, Sunday, January 10
Chicago Bulls vs. Milwaukee Bucks
The fans at Bradley Center will be treated to a game between the Chicago Bulls and the Milwaukee Bucks when they take their seats on Friday.
Derrick Rose went for 24 points and nine assists for Chicago in its 114-108 loss to Charlotte on Tuesday night.
Charlotte couldn't cover as 6.5-point home favorites, while the teams played OVER the 186.5-point total listed by oddsmakers.
Andrew Bogut drained 18 points, as the Bucks dumped the Nets 98-76 on Tuesday night.
Milwaukee covered as 1.5-point road favorites, while the game played UNDER the 191-point total listed by sportsbooks.
Current streak:
Chicago has lost 2 straight games.
Milwaukee has won 2 straight games.
Team records:
Chicago: 14-19 SU, 13-18-2 ATS
Milwaukee: 14-18 SU, 18-14 ATS
Chicago most recently:
When playing on Friday are 2-8
Before playing Minnesota are 4-6
After playing Charlotte are 6-4
After a loss are 4-6
Milwaukee most recently:
When playing on Friday are 2-8
Before playing LA Lakers are 7-3
After playing New Jersey are 2-8
After a win are 5-5
A few trends to consider:
Chicago is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Chicago is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games when playing Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Chicago's last 9 games when playing Milwaukee
Chicago is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Milwaukee's last 7 games at home
Milwaukee is 18-5 SU in its last 23 games when playing at home against Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Milwaukee's last 9 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 16 of Milwaukee's last 23 games
Next up:
Chicago home to Minnesota, Saturday, January 9
Milwaukee at LA Lakers, Sunday, January 10
Miami Heat vs. Phoenix Suns
The Miami Heat and the Phoenix Suns will both be trying to pick up a win on Friday when they battle at US Airways Center.
Dwyane Wade collected a game-high 40 points to go with five rebounds in the Heat's 112-106 overtime loss to the Celtics on Wednesday. The Heat were 1-point favorite in that game, while the 218 points sailed OVER the posted total of 186.
The Suns dominated the second half and cruised to a 118-110 victory over the Rockets on Wednesday. The Suns covered the 4.5-point spread, while the 228 points sailed OVER the posted total of 216.
Steve Nash tossed in 26 points and dished out 12 assists in leading the way, and Amare Stoudemire added 25 points in the win.
Current streak:
Phoenix has won 2 straight games.
Team records:
Miami: 17-16 SU, 16-17 ATS
Phoenix: 23-13 SU, 21-14-1 ATS
Miami most recently:
When playing on Friday are 3-7
Before playing LA Clippers are 5-5
After playing Boston are 5-5
After a loss are 5-5
Phoenix most recently:
When playing on Friday are 7-3
Before playing Milwaukee are 7-3
After playing Houston are 6-4
After a win are 3-7
A few trends to consider:
Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Phoenix
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games when playing Phoenix
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Miami's last 8 games when playing on the road against Phoenix
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Phoenix's last 5 games at home
Phoenix is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Phoenix's last 8 games
Phoenix is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Next up:
Miami at LA Clippers, Sunday, January 10
Phoenix home to Milwaukee, Monday, January 11
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Portland Trail Blazers
The Los Angeles Lakers and the Portland Trail Blazers will both be gunning for a victory on Friday when they meet at Rose Garden.
The Lakers were upset 102-91 by the Clippers on Wednesday, as 5-point favorites. That game's 193 points went UNDER the posted total of 196.
Kobe Bryant drained a game-high 33 points in a losing effort.
Brandon Roy finished with 27 points and nine assists for Portland in its 109-105 loss to Memphis on Tuesday night.
Memphis cashed as 1-point road underdogs, while the game played OVER the 199.5-point total listed by sportsbooks.
Current streak:
Portland has lost 2 straight games.
Team records:
Los Angeles: 28-7 SU, 15-20 ATS
Portland: 22-15 SU, 19-17-1 ATS
Los Angeles most recently:
When playing on Friday are 6-4
Before playing Milwaukee are 8-2
After playing LA Clippers are 7-3
After a loss are 9-1
Portland most recently:
When playing on Friday are 7-3
Before playing Cleveland are 6-4
After playing Memphis are 7-3
After a loss are 6-4
A few trends to consider:
LA Lakers are 21-4 SU in their last 25 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the LA Lakers last 5 games when playing on the road against Portland
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the LA Lakers last 7 games
LA Lakers are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games on the road
Portland is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games when playing at home against LA Lakers
Portland is 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against LA Lakers
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Portland's last 7 games
Portland is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games when playing LA Lakers
Next up:
LA Lakers home to Milwaukee, Sunday, January 10
Portland home to Cleveland, Sunday, January 10
Sacramento Kings vs. Golden State Warriors
The division rival Sacramento Kings and Golden State Warriors are set to renew hostilities on Friday when they meet at Oracle Arena.
Tyreke Evans put up 27 points, 11 rebounds, and seven assists for Sacramento in its 113-109 loss to Phoenix on Tuesday night.
Phoenix covered as 2.5-point road favorites, while the game played UNDER the 225.5-point total posted by oddsmakers.
Corey Maggette went for 28 points and grabbed nine rebounds to help the Warriors defeat the Timberwolves 107-101 on Wednesday, as 2.5-point underdogs. That game's 208 points went UNDER the posted total of 223.
Monta Ellis finished with 20 points, seven rebounds, and six assists for the Warriors.
Current streak:
Sacramento has lost 4 straight games.
Team records:
Sacramento: 14-20 SU, 19-14-1 ATS
Golden State: 10-24 SU, 18-15-1 ATS
Sacramento most recently:
When playing on Friday are 4-6
Before playing Denver are 2-8
After playing Phoenix are 2-8
After a loss are 4-6
Golden State most recently:
When playing on Friday are 4-6
Before playing Cleveland are 2-8
After playing Minnesota are 2-8
After a win are 2-8
A few trends to consider:
Sacramento is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Golden State
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Sacramento's last 6 games when playing on the road against Golden State
Sacramento is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Golden State
Sacramento is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
Golden State is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Golden State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Sacramento
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Golden State's last 6 games when playing at home against Sacramento
Golden State is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Next up:
Sacramento home to Denver, Saturday, January 9
Golden State home to Cleveland, Monday, January 11
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Denver Nuggets
The Cleveland Cavaliers and the Denver Nuggets will both be trying to pick up a win on Friday when they battle at Pepsi Center.
LeBron James had 23 points, seven rebounds and eight assists as Cleveland beat Washington 121-98 on Wednesday night.
The Cavs covered the 13-point spread, while the final score played OVER the day's posted total of 196.5.
Kenyon Martin had 27 points and 13 rebounds to lift the Nuggets past the Warriors 123-122 on Tuesday night.
Denver failed to cover as 5.5-point home favorites, while the game played OVER the 222.5-point total listed by oddsmakers.
Team records:
Cleveland: 28-9 SU, 19-18 ATS
Denver: 22-13 SU, 16-19 ATS
Cleveland most recently:
When playing on Friday are 6-4
Before playing Portland are 4-6
After playing Washington are 6-4
After a win are 8-2
Denver most recently:
When playing on Friday are 6-4
Before playing Sacramento are 3-7
After playing Golden State are 5-5
After a win are 5-5
A few trends to consider:
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Cleveland is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games on the road
Denver is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games at home
Denver is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Denver's last 13 games when playing at home against Cleveland
Next up:
Cleveland at Portland, Sunday, January 10
Denver at Sacramento, Saturday, January 9
Boston (25-8, 15-18 ATS) at Atlanta (22-12, 23-11 ATS)
After a three-game losing streak to close out 2009, the Celtics will try to make it three straight wins when they travel to Philips Arena in Atlanta for an Eastern Conference showdown with the Hawks.
Boston scored a 112-106 overtime victory in Miami on Wednesday, cashing as a one-point favorite. The Celtics got at least 16 points from each of their five starters, with point guard Rajon Rondo returning from injury and leading the way with 25 points and eight assists, while center Kendrick Perkins added 20 points and 10 rebounds. Boston’s defense has taken a hit with star Kevin Garnett out of the lineup, as it has given up 102.6 points a game and 47 percent shooting over the last five games.
Atlanta snapped a season-long four-game losing streak (1-3 ATS) on Wednesday with a much-needed 119-89 home victory rout of lowly New Jersey, cashing as a 14-point favorite. The Hawks, who shot 57.3 percent from the floor, got 29 points from reserve Jamal Crawford with guard Joe Johnson chipping 20 points against the lowly Nets. They average 109.9 points a game in front of the home crowd, shooting 48.4 percent from the floor where they are 12-5 ATS this season.
The Hawks snapped a five-game losing streak to the Celtics on Nov. 13 when they marched into Boston and scored a 97-86 victory as nine-point underdogs. The home team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 series clashes and Atlanta is 4-1 ATS the last five times the Celtics have come calling at Philips Arena.
Boston is on ATS slides of 1-4 after a spread cover and 1-4 after a day off, but the Celtics are on ATS hot streaks of 38-16-1 as an underdog, 4-1 against the Southeast Division and 5-0-1 as ‘dogs of up to 4 ½ points. Atlanta is 0-4 ATS in its last four after a spread-cover, but otherwise on positive ATS runs of 23-11-1 overall, 29-14-1 as a favorite, 5-2 at home and 8-2 against Atlantic Division squads.
The Celtics have topped the total in eight of 12 Friday games, but they are on “under” streaks of 11-5 after a spread-cover, 9-3 against Southeast Division teams and 3-1-1 after a straight-up win. Atlanta is on a plethora of “over” runs, including 12-3 at home, 14-5 after a spread-cover, 5-2 overall and 7-3 after getting a day off. Finally, in this series, the “over” is 7-3 in the last 10 clashes and 4-1 in the last five played in Atlanta.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Dallas (24-11, 17-18 ATS) at San Antonio (21-12, 18-14-1 ATS)
The red-hot Spurs welcome in-state rival Dallas to the AT&T Center in San Antonio for a matchup between the top two teams in the Southwest Division.
The Mavericks have alternated SU wins and losses in their last five games (2-3 ATS), scoring a 98-93 home victory over Detroit on Tuesday, coming up short as 8 ½-point favorites. Dallas is 12-6 ATS on the highway this season and the Mavs just split a four-game road trip (SU and ATS) to close out 2009 and open 2010.
San Antonio has won six of its last seven overall (SU and ATS), including three straight at home (3-0 ATS) capped by Wednesday’s 112-92 win over Detroit, easily cashing as a 10-point chalk. The Spurs are 12-7 ATS at home and they average 105 points a game and shoot 49.6 percent from the floor in front of the home crowd.
Dallas knocked the Spurs out of the Western Conference playoffs last season (4-1 SU and ATS) but the two have split the first two meetings of this season. San Antonio scored a 92-83 home win back on Nov. 11 as a 1 ½-point home ‘dog with Dallas getting a 99-94 home win seven days later as a three-point chalk. Dallas is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 trips to San Antonio even though the home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six series clashes.
The Mavs are 0-5 ATS in their last five against Southwest Division rivals and just 2-5 ATS in their last seven overall, but they are on ATS spurts of 10-4 on the road and 43-21-1 when they get two days off. The Spurs are on positive ATS streaks of 4-1 at home, 6-1 overall and 4-1 after getting a day off, but they are just 1-5 ATS in their last six against winning teams.
Dallas has stayed below the posted total in eight of 11 against Western Conference teams and four of five on the road, but it is on “over” streaks of 6-1 as a ‘dog and 4-1 on Fridays. San Antonio is on “over” runs of 19-9 as a home favorite, 7-3 after getting a day off and 6-2 against Western Conference teams, and on “under” streaks of 4-1 after a spread-cover and 4-0 at home against teams with winning road records.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DALLAS
Cleveland (28-9, 19-18 ATS) at Denver (22-13, 16-19 ATS)
The streaking Cavaliers open a five-game West Coast road trip with a stop at the Pepsi Center in Denver taking on a Nuggets squad that has dropped six of nine overall.
Cleveland has won eight of its last nine (6-3 ATS), including Wednesday’s easy 121-98 home victory over the Wizards as a 13½-point favorite. LeBron James led the surge with 23 points, eight assists and seven rebounds while Shaquille O’Neal added 17 points and six boards. The Cavaliers are 13-7 ATS away from home and lately they have cranked up the defense, allowing just 92 points a game over the last five.
Denver edged Golden State 123-122 on Wednesday, but came up short as a 5 ½-point favorite, falling to 2-7 ATS in its last nine. The low point during this streak came on Sunday when the Nuggets lost 108-105 at home to the lowly Sixers as four-point favorites. Denver has been lousy on the defensive end in its last five contests, giving up 107 ppg and allowing the opposition to shoot 50.5 percent from the floor.
The Cavaliers swept the season series from Denver a year ago (2-0 ATS), including a 105-88 route at the Pepsi Center, prevailing as two-point underdogs. This series has been swept in each of the last three seasons, with the Nuggets getting the SU and ATS sweeps in 2008 and 2007.
Cleveland is on a plethora of ATS runs, including 4-1 on the road, 4-0 against Western Conference teams, 18-8 on Fridays and 11-4 against Northwest Division squads. Denver is on several ATS slides, including 1-5 overall, 2-5 at home, 2-8 against Central Division teams and 3-7 after a non-cover.
For the Cavs, the “under” is on streaks of 5-2 overall, 4-1 on the road, 6-1-1 on Fridays, 5-1 after a straight-up win and 40-17 after a spread-cover. The Nuggets have topped the total in four of five at home, four straight against Eastern Conference teams and 18 of 26 against Central Division teams, but they have stayed “under” in 13 of 19 after getting two days off. In this rivalry, the “under” has been the play in five of the last eight matchups.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NBA RoundUp For 1/8
By Dan Bebe
Magic @ Wizards - Magic by 7 with a total of 201. Wow. You want to talk about a mess, here's Washington. Just when we thought things couldn't get any worse, word comes out that now the guns brandished in the locker room were cocked and loaded, and the "practical joking" is now suddenly looking more and more like threats of bodily harm. It's all a "he said, he said" (being there are no "shes" involved), and it's not clear if Crittendon might have been the one with the loaded gun, but what is damn certain is that no one in Washington wants to be there right now, and Gilbert probably won't be anywhere near the NBA for quite some time. With all this controversy, Washington is ALMOST a perma-fade. Of course, just when I feel like we can find some value in going against the team in complete and utter disarray, they host another team that appears to be all out of whack. The Magic have lost 3 straight games, and they've looked pretty bad doing that, too. They lost in Chicago, in Indiana, and now at home to Toronto, so teams that Orlando should have gone 2-1 against, at the very worst. The Magic are shooting a terrible percentage from the field in this string of games, shooting 36%, 38% and then 42% against the no-defense Raptors. I hate both teams in this spot, and with Orlando potentially looking ahead to the Hawks tomorrow, that just gives me one more reason to avoid this side altogether. If Gilbert Arenas were pointing a gun at my head, I'd ask if it was loaded, then I'd lean Wizards, but I'd rather just run and hope his aim with a gun as similar to his aim from 3-point land (ooohh, burn!). I like the Under too - can either team really get excited enough to score points?
Raptors @ Sixers - Philly by 1.5 with a total of 208. I really like this game, not so much because I feel like there's a clear-cut advantage on the line, but because I think with the right amount of digging, we can turn something up. First, the Sixers - Philly is coming off a home loss to the Wizards, which occurred the day before the League took Arenas away from them. Still, I think this loss said a fair amount about Philly. They still can't seem to win at home, where they're 4-11 (2-13 ATS!). Philly is 6-13 on the road (12-7 ATS), so for Toronto to come to town, it's not necessarily a good spot for the Sixers. After this game, the Sixers hit the road for a game in Detroit tomorrow, which isn't a look-ahead spot, so I think we can throw that angle out the window. This is also the first meeting between these teams this season. Toronto is coming off a rare road win in Orlando over the slumping Magic, and they've quietly won 7 of 8 games, covering in 6 of those 7 wins. The big difference for Toronto? They're holding teams under 110 points. I realize that sounds silly, but during their losing skid in late November and early December, the Raptors lost 8 of 12 games, and allowed over 110 points in 7 of those 8 losses! In this nice little 7-1 run, Toronto has given up no more than 103 points (which they've done 3 times in those 8 games), and have held opponents under 100 in the other 5 contests. I can't help but think that Toronto getting a tiny spread is the better value here. They're playing good ball, and while it does concern me slightly that Philadelphia's loss came in their first home game off a long road trip, I think Toronto is playing better basketball, and Philadelphia's inability to succeed at home ultimately makes me think that any points they're getting for home court should be, at the very least, shaved by half. This game should be a pick, and I lean Toronto. I also lean Under.
Jazz @ Memphis - This line is OFF, and personally, I love Memphis here no matter how you slice the spread. I know, you're thinking how the hell can this guy want the Grizzlies after they just played Utah in Salt Lake City and lost by 23? Easy, that game was the ultimate stinker situation for the Grizz, and this one is the exact opposite. Memphis was playing the second half of a back-to-back in Utah (altitude) after a big win in Portland, so their value was low, they were tired, and playing a Jazz team that had been struggling a little bit, so their value was high. The only reason I did not have a play on Utah in that game was because of the late scratch of Deron Williams. Now, the situationals are reversed. The Grizzlies are setting up shop at home with their internal revenge-o-meters set to MAX. In fact, they've lost twice in Utah, both times on the tail end of a back-to-back, so you know Memphis has a ton to prove, especially as a team on the rise. Even more wonderful, the Grizzlies are not starting a homestand, so I don't believe they'll have the "first-game-home" hangover, as they head right back out on the road. Also, the Jazz play in Dallas tomorrow, so they may be satisfied with the 2 wins over Memphis already under their belt and will instead start thinking about landing the bigger fish tomorrow. The line on this game will be the ultimate indicator of what we can expect. Memphis is a great home team (10-5 SU and ATS), Utah is a poor road team (6-10 SU, 7-9 ATS), and if this line opens anywhere north of Memphis by 2.5, I think the oddsmakers will tell us enough, and it's reasonable to consider a play on the Grizz. I also think we may get an Over here, as Memphis will have some aggression to take out.
Celtics @ Hawks - Atlanta by 2 with a total of 196. First thing you have to consider in this one is revenge, above all else. Back in mid-December, the Hawks rolled into Boston and bopped the Celtics over the head with a decisive 97-86 victory as a 9-point underdog! I'm saddened that KG won't be around to help Boston get its revenge, because his intensity is what would push this game from "lean" to "play," but perhaps we can find enough in this one to make it tantalizing, anyway. The Hawks are coming off a murderous beatdown of the Nets, a 30-point win that snapped a 4-game losing streak for the Hawks. Now, they can try their luck against a better team, and one that just got Paul Pierce and Rajon Rondo back from injury and picked up a miracle win in Miami. I believe we are in a rare spot here in that we can actually get VALUE on the Celtics. It won't happen often as one of the League's marquee teams, but right now Boston is not quite the public favorite they had been, and are an underdog, a spot I just adore. Boston as a dog this year is 3-1 SU, so they're actually winning games while getting points, and the one loss came in Phoenix with 3 starters out due to injury. I can't help but think this line looks way too easy for the Hawks at home, who also play in Orlando tomorrow, so there may be a little incentive to try to beat Boston using the least strength possible. I am concerned, though, that Atlanta snapped that losing streak with a "get fat" game against Jersey, and that momentum might carry over. Still, I lean Boston, and I lean Over - the Celts just aren't the same team defensively without KG.
Nets @ Hornets - New Orleans by 10.5 with a total of 192.5. Ugh, I really hate that I'm about to say this, but this is actually a good value play with Jersey. On my recent 3-1 Paid Play stretch, the stupid, stinking Nets were the only loss, and it causes me great nauseating distress to even think they may be a good bet, but let's take a look at the numbers and situation. The Hornets return home off a short, but extremely productive road trip that saw Chris Paul lead his buzzing insects to wins in both Utah and Oklahoma City. The Hornets have won 4 straight games (over the Heat, Rockets, and the two road games), and they've covered the spread in all 4. There isn't a man alive who could convince me this isn't a letdown game. It's not so much that New Orleans has big games coming up; they most certainly do not, with a road contest in Washington next on the docket, but after 4 big wins in a row, 3 against teams that the Hornets can use as barometers to gauge their own skill, this game looks like cake. Conversely, the Nets couldn't look much worse to the average bettor after getting slapped around at home by Milwaukee (by over 20), and then the aforementioned 30-point road stinker in Atlanta. Given the way I personally feel about Jersey, I can't imagine the public could take them (though they may be a Morrison play, and that does concern me with the potential for a loss of line value), but in terms of one team peaking and another team in a deep valley, the Hornets couldn't be any less valuable. I lean Jersey, and I lean Under, since I think there is the potential for a low-scoring game that the Nets lose by 8 or 9.
Pacers @ Wolves - This line is OFF. The only way the NBA could have scheduled a less interesting game would be to eliminate the shot clock and make this a throw(way)back game. That being said, we're seeing an Indiana roster of scrubs that heads to Minnesota off another improbable home victory. Indiana has alternated wins and losses in their last 4 games, and none of the spreads have even been remotely close. As a 3-point dog, they lost by 11 to Memphis; as a 4.5 point favorite, they beat these Wolves by 11; as a 9 point dog, they lost to the Knicks by 43, and as an 11-point dog, they beat the Magic by 7. Oddsmakers, I guess, felt they needed a little more time to figure out what the heck this team is going to do, and it also can't hurt the books to wait and see which, if any, of Indiana's injured might give this one a go. Word is that Granger is close to returning, but really, we won't know more until closer to game time, and honestly, I don't really care. This is a revenge game for Minnesota, and I think we'll see the Wolves favored in this one by around 2 points. The Wolves are coming off a home loss to the Warriors, who surprised me with a high-energy effort after a devastating loss in Denver. If nothing else, we learned Golden State has some heart, bouncing back after having a win over the Nuggets snatched away by some questionable officiating. What we learned of the Wolves is that they're not very good, bottom line. They've lost 5 straight to fall to 7-29 on the season, and they're 1-4 ATS in those losses. I think we should get some marginal value on the Wolves in revenge spot, and we can worry about both of these teams playing back-to-back games when we get there. The last game between these two teams hit 233 points on a total of 208 - oddsmakers might give us a play on the total depending on where this one opens.
Bulls @ Bucks - Bucks by 3 with a total of 193. A battle in the midwest of two teams that are more or less power-ranking equals. That, of course, means we need to figure out which team is playing the better basketball. Milwaukee comes back home after a 1-game trip to Jersey and an easy win. They have won (and covered) 2 straight, immediately after losing and failing to cover 4 straight. The streakiness of the Bucks can be both a good and bad thing, as they often follow up one ATS win with another, and vice versa on losses. Interestingly, there was a stretch in mid-December where the Bucks went 2-3 SU, but a perfect 5-0 ATS, so this team had a knack for keeping games close as a dog. Not all that relevant here as a small favorite, a situation where the Bucks are 9-3 (home fave) straight up, and 7-5 ATS. An interesting note about this series so far this year is that the teams are 1-1, and both teams were decided by 2 points. The Bucks were an 8.5-point dog in Chicago, and a 3-point favorite at home, so that spread is being repeated. I think this line is pretty sharp on the side, and the oddsmakers are showing confidence by putting out the same line as last time. The Bulls are coming off a loss in Charlotte after a loss at home to the Thunder, but really, this team is playing "okay". They've covered 5 of 6 ATS, so they're outperforming the oddsmakers' expectations, and I think that's why they're only 3-point dogs against a Milwaukee team in a confident spot. I lean slightly to Milwaukee, but I think this game ends with one team winning very late. I also lean to the Under, as I feel the last total went Over by 3 points in Milwaukee, and oddsmakers left the total at the same 193 mark, as well. Milwaukee hasn't shot the ball well, and the Bulls haven't impressed on the road, which also lends a little credibility to a potential Under. Still, bottom line is that the spread/total on this game is pretty accurate.
Mavs @ Spurs - San Antonio by 4 with a total of 195.5. Are we at that point where we can just back the Mavericks in every road game? This team is showing that they're a big-game club this year, and that they're not overly concerned about winning by a ton of points, but racking up plenty of victories is a-okay. To illustrate this point, the Mavs are 12-5 at home, 12-6 on the road, both numbers straight up, but 5-12 ATS at home, 12-6 ATS on the road. They are 0.6 points better on the road than at home, and with the typical 6-point swing in the spread, you can see those 6.6 points of value have made the Mavs a 67% betting proposition on the road. Here they are again, as a small road dog to an intrastate rival, and one that is currently playing their best basketball of the season. Should be a damn good game, but our main concern is finding value, and clearly the value is with the road team. My biggest concerns about this game, though, revolve around the fact that the Mavs lost by 9 to the Spurs in San Antonio earlier this year, then got their revenge with a 5-point home win. So it almost feels like this game starts the season series over, and the clean slate means that you have to give the motivational edge to the home team. I still lean slightly to the Mavs despite their game tomorrow against Utah, but that lean is not ultra-strong. Looking at the totals of the previous match-ups, the first game went 20 points Under a mark of 196.5, and the second game went 3 points Under a total of 196. Interestingly, this total is still awfully close to those earlier marks, and it makes me think that this number is pretty accurate. I like the Under just slightly, as I think both teams get up on defense, but we may see another game end near 193.
Heat @ Suns - Phoenix by 6.5 with a total of 213.5. This spread is fairly large, given the Heat are just embarking on a fairly long road trip. We often see decent teams get the energy level up at the beginning of 6-game roadies like this one, then see that team peter out later on the same voyage. That scares me here, since my initial lean was to the Suns. I'm not sure I can convince myself that either side is a safe play in this game, even though Miami is coming off back to back tough losses at home, and the Suns are coming off two tough wins on the road at Sacramento and at home over the Rockets. It's just so difficult to fade the Suns in their own building against mid-level competition. Phoenix lost at home to the Cavs, they lost at home in a letdown to the Thunder, and then more recently to the red-hot Grizzlies. If you're not shooting over 50%, you're not beating the Suns in Phoenix. Of course, that's why betting Phoenix on the ML would cost you dearly, and why we have to determine if there's any value to this line of 6.5 points. I don't think there is, at least on the favorite. Phoenix scores the ball so easily at home, and to see this line indicate the Suns are just 3.5-point superiors to the Heat (maybe even less if the home court edge was more than the standard 3 points) just doesn't feel right, especially given the Suns beat the Heat, in Miami, by 8 as a 4.5-point dog. I lean to Miami to get some revenge in the only shot they get to get even with Phoenix. I also find it intriguing that the game in Miami had a total set at 215.5, and only got to 200, yet this line is still in the teens. I lean Over, as I think we get a couple of monster games from some marquee guys.
Lakers @ Blazers - Lakers by 3 with a total of 193.5. The Lakers head to the Pacific Northwest for a battle with one of their rivals, and a team that tends to give them fits in the Rose Garden. An interesting spot for LA, coming off a disappointing loss to the Clippers in a road game at home (you guys know what I'm talking about), and I'm curious to see how they bounce back. That game with the Clippers was a trademark letdown spot after avenging two earlier home losses to the Mavs and Rockets, and really, the entire team looked tired. The big question in this game is whether the Lakers get the energy back up, or if the sluggishness carries over for one more game. Looking back over the last 20 games, an ATS loss that follows an ATS win has been followed by another loss every time (4 times), and after the Lakers covered against the Mavs and Rockets, they suffered an ATS loss to the Clips, so perhaps we see some continued poor play from LA in this one. Also, it's worth noting that the Blazers have knocked off the Lakers in Portland 4 straight times, and are actually a robust 24-10 SU against LA at the Rose Garden since 1996. I realize there have been countless player changes since then, but it's a solid illustration of just how amped up the Blazers get to play the Lakers at home. I'm strongly inclined to lean Blazers, and I think the line is a monster indicator of how badly books want LA money. And really, I almost don't care that Portland is coming off 2 losses - this is the game they care about, no question in my mind. I think this game stays Under the total, too, as I see Portland really coming out with crazy intensity on the defensive end.
Kings @ Warriors - Golden State by 3.5 with a total of 227.5. The Warriors have been covering like crazy lately, only failing to do so in their contest at the Rose Garden in Portland over the last 7 games. That 6-1 ATS mark moves them to a respectable 18-15 ATS on the season. Now, after a 4-game road trip, the Warriors return home, where they're generally a solid opponent, but might suffer some first-game-home sluggishness against a quick and somewhat powerful Kings team. Sacramento has hit a short rough patch after exploding onto the scene back in November, losing 6 of their last 7 games, and covering just 2 of those 7 games. Are they slowing? Maybe a tad, but the brief loss of Tyreke Evans to injury may have played a large role in the Kings recent sluggish play. Evans is back now, but doesn't quite have his legs underneath him, and I'm a little nervous about backing this team on the road. They are 9-5 ATS on the road, but just 3-12 SU, so a lot of those ATS wins have come against huge underdog spreads. Here, the Kings are getting just 3.5 points against the surging Warriors, and truth be told, I don't like either team in this one. The Warriors are going to come out slow off a decent road trip, and the Kings just aren't that scary on the road. I lean slightly to the Warriors to wake up and simply outscore the Kings, but it's a weak lean, at best. I think it's also interesting that the Kings beat Golden State in Sacramento earlier this year as a 3.5-point dog, and now in Golden State we have the same line, but the Warriors on revenge. That game also hit a total that is almost spot on the 227.5 listed in this one. I lean slightly to the Under.
Cavs @ Nuggets - This line is OFF. The late game, and you just HAVE to think the Nuggets injured stars will make an appearance in this one. I already heard whispers that Chauncey was expecting to play on Friday (this game), and how bad do you think Melo wants to get a shot to go toe-to-toe with his buddy/nemesis Lebron James? The answer is very bad. Obviously, books want to limit their exposure, so there's zero point in them releasing a line on this game before they have to, and given the way these two teams have played lately, this was an easy decision. The Nuggets have been piss-poor without their big dogs, picking up a marginally impressive road win at Utah and an absolute gift at home over the Warriors in between 4 losses. It's really no surprise that this team can't get much done without Melo and Chauncey, but they are still a home team to fear. The Cavs, after running a handful of the NBA's best right out of whatever building they were playing in, have regressed slightly, maybe a little emotionally pooped after all those big games. Cleveland beat the snot out of a pathetic Wizards club in their last game, but had lost 3 straight ATS before that. They kick off a 5-game road trip with this game in Denver, and I'll be quite curious to see how the entire trip turns out, with Cleveland playing a handful of mid-level Western Conference teams. Cleveland won, and covered both games against the Nugs last year, so Lebron appears more than capable of handling the altitude, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a short spread on this game (if the stars play), and a game decided by some late heroics. I want to watch this game, badly, but I'm not sure I want to bet on it. Let's wait and see about a total before taking any side there.
Tips and Trends
Boston Celtics at Atlanta Hawks
Celtics: Boston has the best record in the Eastern Conference as they head into Atlanta with revenge on their minds. The Celtics lost earlier this season at home to Atlanta as 9 point favorites. Boston has a better record on the road than they do at home at 14-4 SU. The Celtics are 9-9 ATS on the road this year, but are 3-1 SU and ATS as the listed road underdog. All 5 starters average double digits in PTS this season, led by F Paul Pierce at nearly 19 PPG. Boston has been dealing with injuries to nearly their entire team, save PG Rajon Rondo. Rondo has been a force offensively this season, as he's scored in double digits in each of his past 14 games. Rondo is averaging more than 13 PPG while averaging the 3th most assists in the NBA with nearly 10 APG. Boston is 2nd in the NBA in scoring defense, only allowing 93 PPG. On the road however, they are allowing more than 99 PPG.
Celtics are 48-20-1 ATS last 69 games as a road underdog.
Under is 28-11 last 39 road games vs. a team with a home winning % greater than .600.
Key Injuries - F Kevin Garnett (knee) is out.
G Eddie House (flu) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 101 (Side of the Day)
Hawks (-2, O/U 196): After opening the season in spectacular fashion, Atlanta has lost 4 of their past 5 games SU to fall to 22-12 SU this season. Atlanta is 13-4 SU at home this season, but have lost 2 of their past 3 contests there. The Hawks are 12-5 ATS at home, including 8-3 ATS as a single digit home favorite. 5 Hawks players average double digits in PTS this season, led by G Joe Johnson and his 21.5 PPG. The Hawks average 104.4 PPG, which ranks them 4th in the NBA. F Josh Smith is one of the most versatile athletes in the NBA as he averages 15 PPG, 8 RPG, 3.5 APG, 1.5 SPG, and 2 BPG. After losing 4 straight contests (3 as the listed favorite) the Hawks players held a closed door meeting looking for change. They responded with a 30 point victory over the Nets. The Hawks allow teams to average nearly 98 PPG and a shooting percentage of 46% from the field.
Hawks are 8-2 ATS last 10 vs. NBA Atlantic.
Over is 12-3 last 15 games as a home favorite.
Key Injuries - None
PROJECTED SCORE: 97
Los Angeles Lakers at Portland Trail Blazers
Lakers (-3, O/U 193.5): Despite losing their last game to the Clippers, the Lakers have the overall best record in the NBA at 28-7 SU. However, the Lakers are only 15-20 ATS this season. The Lakers have played a favorable schedule thus far, as they've only played 12 of their 35 games on the road this season. They are 8-4 SU and 4-8 ATS on the road this year. The Lakers have allowed more than 100 PTS in 7 of their last 9 games. Los Angeles now stands 10th in the NBA in points allowed, at 96.9 PPG. Despite their recent struggles, they hold opponents to the 2nd lowest shooting percentage in the NBA, at 43.4%. 4 Laker starters average double digits, led by G Kobe Bryant. Bryant is tied with Carmelo Anthony with 30 PPG to lead the entire NBA in scoring. The Lakers average 104 PPG, which ranks them 5th in the league. The Lakers have scored more than 100 PTS in 9 of their 12 games away from Los Angeles.
Lakers are 1-4 ATS last 5 games as a road favorite up to 4.5 points.
Over is 5-0 last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
Key Injuries - F Pau Gasol (hamstring) is doubtful.
F Luke Walton (finger) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 101 (OVER - Total of the Day)
Blazers: Few teams enjoy seeing the Lakers come into town. Portland is one of those teams, as they've beaten the Lakers 8 straight times SU heading into tonight's contest. G Brandon Roy has spoken about how big games are against the current defending champions. Portland has scored at least 103 PTS in 4 of their past 6 games. This Blazers offense is very well balanced as 8 different players average at least 7.5 PPG this season. Roy leads the Blazers with nearly 23 PPG, and has scoring outbursts of 37 and 41 PTS in 2 of his past 6 contests. G Jerryd Bayless has made the most of his playing time, as he's averaging nearly 13 PPG over his last 12 games. Portland is 13-6 SU and 8-10-1 ATS at home this season. The Blazers are 4-5 ATS as the listed underdog this season, with today marking the 1st time all season the Blazers have been listed as the home underdog.
Blazers are 28-10 ATS last 38 games as a home underdog.
Over is 7-2 last 9 games as an underdog.
Key Injuries - G Rudy Fernandez (back) is doubtful.
PG Steve Blake (illness) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 98
Trend Report - Friday
By Ed Meyer
Magic at Wizards - The Magic are 8-0 ATS (6.9 ppg) since March 18, 2005 on the road with at most one day of rest when they have lost their last three games SU and ATS. The Wizards are 7-0 ATS (10.2 ppg) since February 12, 2006 before playing the Hornets. The Wizards are 0-10-1 OU (-11.7 ppg) since November 12, 2008 with at least one day of rest off a loss in which they never led.
Raptors at Sixers - The Raptors are 12-0 ATS (11.9 ppg) since December 03, 2004 after playing on the road against the Magic. The Raptors are 7-0 ATS (11.4 ppg) since December 06, 2005 on the road after a road win in which the percentage of their baskets that were assisted was at least ten percentage points higher than their season-to-date average.
Bulls at Bucks - The Bucks are 0-7 ATS (-8.1 ppg) since February 24, 2006 at home with at least one day of rest after a game on the road in which their field goal attempt per turnover ratio was at least eight.
Jazz at Grizzlies - The Jazz are 9-0 ATS (11.2 ppg) since November 10, 2007 versus the Grizzlies. The Jazz are 0-7-1 ATS (-8.8 ppg) since January 31, 2009 after a win in which they had at least 12 steals.
Celtics at Hawks - The Celtics are 0-7-1 ATS (-7.8 ppg) since December 26, 2001 on the road with at least one day of rest after a win in which they had at least five more turnovers than their season-to-date average. The Celtics are 7-0 ATS (13.7 ppg) since December 07, 2007 with at most one day of rest after a road win in which their DPS was at least plus 15 points. The Hawks are 7-0 ATS (7.2 ppg) since January 11, 2003 with at most one day of rest after a home win when their opponent is off an overtime game.
Nets at Hornets - The Nets are 0-6 ATS (-7.2 ppg) since March 04, 2003 on the road after a game in which they were whistled for fewer than 15 personal fouls.
Cavaliers at Nuggets - The Cavaliers are 9-0 ATS (3.7 ppg) since November 15, 2008 after a double digit win in which they shot at least 55% from the field. The Nuggets are 0-7 ATS (-7.4 ppg) since December 22, 2006 with two or more days of rest after a win in which they made fewer baskets than their opponent.
Mavericks at Spurs - The Mavericks are 0-11-1 ATS (-9.2 ppg) since February 09, 2000 with at least one day of rest off a win in which the game was tied at the end of the third quarter.
Heat at Suns - The League is 11-0 ATS (9.5 ppg) since December 20, 2008 with at most one day of rest off an overtime loss as a home dog. The Heat are 7-0 ATS (5.1 ppg) since March 11, 2003 on the road after a loss in which they had at least 15 more shot attempts than their opponent. The Suns are 6-0 ATS (12.1 ppg) since December 18, 2004 at home with at most one day of rest after a win when their opponent is off an overtime game.
Pacers at Timberwolves - The Timberwolves are 8-0 ATS (10.2 ppg) since December 09, 2008 after a loss in which they scored more than 25% of their points from the free throw line.
Lakers at Trailblazers - The Lakers are 0-7 ATS (-9.5 ppg) since February 09, 2007 with at most one day of rest after a double digit road loss in which they shot less than 40% from the field.
Kings at Warriors - The Kings are 6-0 ATS (8.7 ppg) since March 09, 2008 on the road when their next game is versus an opponent they beat as an underdog in their previous same-season match-up. The Warriors are 7-0 ATS (9.8 ppg) since March 01, 2003 at home after a win in which they had at least five fewer turnovers than their season-to-date average.