Friday's best NBA bets
Sacramento Kings at New Jersey Nets (-2, 199)
Don’t look now, but the Kings frontcourt is … good?
Sacramento was minus-1 in rebounding differential in a season-opening 117-116 win over the Timberwolves, but grabbed a very strong 45 rebounds. The team received a balance efforts from its big man, getting 11 boards from Carl Landry, eight from rookie DeMarcus Cousins, seven from Donte Greene, six from Jason Thompson and four from Omri Casspi.
And the unit should only get more deep on Friday when center Samuel Dalembert is expected to make his debut for the Kings.
This group also should improve greatly on its 40 points in the paint in its second game against the Nets as guard Tyreke Evans also will make his season debut. Evans missed the team’s win over Minnesota due to a one-game suspension.
Meantime, the Nets are coming off a miraculous comeback against the Pistons that saw them finish on a 13-3 run. New Jersey struggled to contain the Pistons forwards and despite posting a 44-37 edge on the boards, tout a suspect front line of Brook Lopez, Joe Smith, Travis Outlaw, Kris Humphries, Terrance Williams, Damion James and Derrick Favors.
Pick: Kings
Orlando Magic at Miami Heat (-3.5, 185)
It’s this simple for the Miami Heat -- when they hit jump shots, they win.
In a season-opening loss to the Celtics, the Heat made a meager 6-of-22 spot-up jump shots -- good for a meager 27.3 percent -- and notched just 17 points via the set J. On catch-and-shoot opportunities in a 10-point win over the Sixers one night later, the team was nearly twice as good with their stroke, banging 11-of-21 attempts -- a clip of 54.4 percent -- to finish with 30 points from set shots.
Just as important was the outside shooting of James Jones. After burying a pair of triples to give his team life late against Boston, Jones was 6-of-9 from distance against the Sixers and finished with a surprising 20 points.
"When we have our long ball going like that, it's unlimited what we can do offensively," James told the Associated Press.
Further down the court, the Magic should be tired after opening their new arena in front of a raucous crowd against the Wizards. Combine that with the Heat keeping their hot shooting for their home opener, and you get a smoking victory.
Pick: Heat
NBA odds have Heat by six versus Magic
By: Barry Daniels
The defending Southeast Division champion Orlando Magic will participate in the second part of a back-to-back situation Friday night when they make the short trip to Miami to meet the Heat. Orlando played its season opener Thursday at home against Washington.
Pete Korner, who establishes the betting line for the majority of Nevada sports books as owner of the Sports Club, made Miami a six-point home favorite in his overnight numbers. The ‘total’ opened at 189 points.
The Magic finished on top of the Southeast Division last season thanks to a 59-23 straight-up record, but lost to Boston in the Eastern Conference finals. Orlando was also a fine 46-34-2 against the spread, including 22-18-1 ATS on the road.
The ‘under’ was 47-34-1 in Orlando’s 82 regular season games last year, which included the ‘under’ cashing in 26 of 41 road dates.
Dwight Howard is not only Orlando’s center, but also the centerpiece of the offense and defense. The big man led the team with an 18.3 PPG average, and also hauled down a team-leading 13.2 rebounds per game.
Howard’s huge inside presence, which forced the opposition to double and triple-team him, had a lot to do with Orlando shooting many uncontested three-point shots. As a result, the Magic had a league-record 841 trifectas last season. They finished third in the league by shooting 37.5 percent from beyond the arc.
The three-point shot also helped the Magic average 102.8 PPG last season, which ranked sixth in the league. They also were fifth in rebounding at 43.2 boards per contest.
Howard clogged the middle well enough during the 2009-10 campaign to help the Magic rank fourth in defense with a 95.3 PPG average. Orlando held its opponents to a league-low 43.8 percent shooting from the field.
Though Stan Van Gundy’s crew is 12-4-1 in its last 17 series meetings against Miami, the two clubs split four matchups last season. Miami recorded a 99-98 win in the first meeting at Orlando, and also notched a 104-86 home win in the second encounter.
Orlando then captured the last two meetings, a 96-80 victory as an 11 ½-point home favorite and a 108-102 overtime triumph as a two-point road favorite. The ‘over’ is 5-2 in the last seven series gatherings.
Miami has split back-to-back road games to begin its much anticipated 2010-11 campaign. The Heat suffered an 88-80 loss Tuesday at Boston as one-point road favorites before recording a 97-87 victory the next night at Philadelphia as eight-point road favorites. Both games dipped ‘under’ the closing NBA odds number.
Dwyane Wade, who began the season with a gimpy hamstring, rebounded from a rusty opener against Boston with a game-high 30 points against the 76ers. LeBron James, after scoring 31 in the opener, settled for 16 markers in a co-pilot's role against the 76ers.
Though Chris Bosh had just 15 points, the Heat outscored Philly by 27 with him on the floor.
The attention paid to “The Big 3” will invite one of Miami’s other players to excel with open looks on many nights. James Jones relished that role in Wednesday’s win by coming off the bench to score 20 points, making 6-of-9 from three-point land.
It’s a rare occurrence in the NBA when the road team attempts more free throws than the home squad, but that’s exactly what happened in Wednesday’s win. The visiting Heat were 27-for-31 from the charity stripe, while the 76ers were just 8-of-11.
Philly out-rebounded Miami, 48-46, and had 24 assists compared to Miami’s 15 helpers. Both clubs committed 16 turnovers.
Miami, without James and Bosh last season, averaged just 96.5 PPG (ranked 25th) and shot just 45.8 percent from the field (ranked 17th). The Heat ranked 19th from beyond the arc (34.6 percent) and 19th in free throw shooting (75.2 percent).
However, the Heat sizzled on the defensive end. They ranked second in points against (94.2 PPG) and opponents’ field goal percentage (43.9 percent).
Miami goes back on the road for a Halloween match at New Jersey, while Orlando is off until next Tuesday when they travel to New York for a tussle against the Knicks.
NBA Preview
By Dan Bebe
Indiana Pacers @ Charlotte Bobcats (-5.5) with a total of 191.5
Indiana did not play defense in their opener, and that, to me, bodes poorly for their first few road games. Charlotte, meanwhile, stunk in their road opener in Dallas, but that's not really a surprise. We saw, last year, Charlotte make mincemeat of the League at home, and I wonder if they can get right back at it, this year. The total on this game has rocketed up, not surprising given the pace that Indiana tries to play at, and catching almost 6 points means that a close game is probably going to be an Indiana cover. I really think Indiana beats a lot of teams at home, and teams with poor defense on the road, but Charlotte is known for defense and slowing things down, and I just don't think this is a particularly great matchup for either team. Lean to CHARLOTTE and the OVER.
Sacramento Kings @ New Jersey Nets (-3.5) with a total of 199
The Kings and Nets each play their second game, and each is batting 1,000 so far. That won't last, obviously, but you have to believe both teams are feeling decent about themselves. I still don't trust New Jersey, as I feel like they stole that opener from the Pistons, who outplayed them for 46 minutes. The Kings, meanwhile, held strong in a road game, which is a small triumph, and they get Tyreke Evans back for this second game. On paper, it seems like the Kings should be able to hang tough, especially with their top threat back in the lineup, but as we saw in the Nets opener, if you're backing a dog at less than 4 points, you really have a narrow margin for error. I'm not a believer in Sacramento just yet. Leans to NEW JERSEY and the UNDER.
Atlanta Hawks (-4) @ Philadelphia 76ers with a total of 194.5
The Hawks looked awfully dominant in their opener, a crushing of the Memphis Grizzlies on the road. Now, as a 4-point road favorite (as opposed to a short road underdog), Atlanta heads into Philadelphia, fresh off their own season-opener, a loss to the Miami Heat. I still believe there's a lot to learn about both of these teams. As I suggested in the NBA Season Preview blog, and again, if less intently on the podcast, I believe the Hawks are due to take a step back this year, but not until later in the season. They have the advantage of being largely unchanged, which is a great edge in the first few games of the year, while other teams are trying to develop chemistry. Atlanta doesn't have to worry about that, and even though they might be a hair on the public side, they do have a nice thing going early on. As for Philly, I think they might actually be worse than what we saw against Miami. They clearly got up for that game, and it still wasn't anywhere close to enough, even with Miami struggling to develop chemistry, and LeBron committing 9 more turnovers. I hate to go public with a lean, but... lean to ATLANTA and the UNDER.
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Toronto Raptors (-3) with a total of 197
Two teams starting the post-superstar eras, and getting off to pretty different starts. The Cavs upended a tired Boston team in their home opener to go to 1-0 on the year, and probably looked better than they truly are in the process. Toronto got beat, at home, by the revamped Knicks, though a game that looked like it might get out of hand early was, instead, not a terrible contest. The Raptors are going to have all kinds of problems this year on both sides of the ball, though, so there was no huge surprise in game 1. I wonder here, however, if Cleveland is riding a little too high on that first win. The Cavs, with LeBron, were an incredible home team, but that arena is a good advantage. Now, heading into Toronto, this game is fairly evenly matched, in my opinion, and I can't imagine Cleveland can play much better than they did against the Celts. To me, that makes this opening number all the more interesting - it's a strong one for Toronto. Slight lean to the pathetic RAPTORS and the UNDER.
New York Knicks @ Boston Celtics (-8.5) with a total of 198
Okay, everyone is settled in, now. Boston plays, incredibly, their 3rd game of the young season already, and the Knicks play their second. New York got a road win in Toronto, so a nice confidence boost to open the new year, and Boston got a big home win over a disjointed Heat club, then had nothing left in the tank and got roughed up in Cleveland, a team playing with a chip on its shoulder. Now, home, and off a night of rest, Boston can regroup to get the rest of the season started. To me, the Knicks are a bit overrated, largely because of hype, so that cancels out, at least a little, the normal inflation that comes with a Celtics side. I believe this line is right about where it should be, and if Boston plays their normal lockdown defense, they should win this one by 7-10. Tiny lean to BOSTON, and small lean to the UNDER.
Oklahoma City Thunder (-6) @ Detroit Pistons with a total of 195
I'd love to come before you and say that the Pistons are the super sharp play, but the simple fact is that Oklahoma City is a powerful young team that know what it takes to win, home or road. And that's what makes them scary. If this line was a bit higher, and the inflation was great enough to warrant a pure mathematical play, that would be one thing, but the Pistons are not a team that is going to score a ton of points on a nightly basis, and as we saw in their opener, aren't huge on closing games out, either. I know Detroit is going to be better at home than on the road, but a lot of that is because their opponents are probably going to be worse playing at the Palace. I do like Detroit as an undervalued team this year, but against a club with firepower like the Thunder that can also play defense, it's just not the time. World's tiniest, most microscopic lean to DETROIT, and lean to the UNDER.
Orlando Magic @ Miami Heat (-4.5) with a total of 184.5
Flat out, this game means more to Orlando. We've heard all offseason about how Stan Van Gundy wants to make sure the East isn't just handed to the Heat, and how he feels about the top 2 free agents both signing with the same team. We also saw what Orlando was doing to teams throughout the preseason, and then again in their opener. This is a team on a mission, and if the look-ahead to Miami isn't reason for them to take Washington lightly (at all), then surely they're going to be ready to make a point of beating on the Heat. Miami got a cover in their second game, beating Philadelphia by 10 points for a narrow ATS win, but things still aren't even close to right with the Heat. Bosh was mostly ineffective, or I guess we could say played a "decent" game, but not what 20 million is worth; LeBron is turning the ball over, and an heroic effort from Dwyane Wade was enough to get by a pretty bad Sixers team. If it wasn't clear by the way these teams are approaching this particular game...Lean to ORLANDO and PASS on the total.
Milwaukee Bucks (-4.5) @ Minnesota Timberwolves with a total of 200
The Bucks were a 3-point road dog to the Hornets in their opener, and dropped that game by 4, a narrow ATS loss. The Wolves were a short home fave to the Kings, and lost the game outright. Most know how I feel about the Bucks, so I'll keep that side of things short - Milwaukee is among the "hunted" this year, and they are a team with something to prove - namely, that they weren't a flash in the pan. The Wolves are a slightly improved team, but they still stink, and the loss of Al Jefferson leaves them with Darko Milicic starting at the 5, a disaster waiting to happen. Milwaukee is going to want to snag a win in their second game, and I expect a strong, workmanlike effort from a Scott Skiles team. I do think Minnesota can hang with them for most of the game, especially if the long range shots are falling, but Milwaukee should win this one late. Covering 4.5 isn't easy, though. Still, tiny lean to MILWAUKEE, and UNDER.
Denver Nuggets (-1.5) @ New Orleans Hornets with a total of 205
Denver has a lot to prove this year, and the more people talk, the more likely it seems Carmelo isn't going to last the season. But that's all speculation, and something happening down the line. For today, the goal is to show that Denver can win on the road. Honestly, I'm not sure they can. Denver played a beast of a game against the Jazz, but Utah's inability to make a shot played as big a role in that game as Denver's solid game. New Orleans, meanwhile, played yet another close game (I say "yet another" because of how many close ones they had last year), and as I've written repeatedly, Chris Paul has a knack for keeping games close, and winning them late - and quietly, since he doesn't necessarily hit the "game winner," but hits a few big shots when the Hornets need them, and the team goes on to play well. This short line tells me oddsmakers aren't sold on Denver, either, since the Nuggets blowout win over the Jazz could have probably led to a slightly higher line. Chris Paul will make sure the Hornets have a chance, and that's all you can ask as a home underdog. Lean to the HORNETS (ML, maybe), and the OVER.
Memphis Grizzlies @ Dallas Mavericks (-10) with a total of 199
I wonder if this line is extremely high for a reason, or if it's just getting inflated more and more by preseason hype combined with the results of game 1. Let us recall, Memphis got creamed by the Atlanta Hawks in their opener, and the Mavericks, an awful ATS home team last year, picked up a nice win, and cover, against the road-clunker Bobcats. But, we must remember, the Mavs lost their home opener last year to the Wizards, and seemed pretty bent on making up for that this season. Also, the Bobcats inability to play on the road might have made the Mavs look better than they actually are. Dirk had a monster shooting night, and Jason Kidd turned back the clock. Memphis looked about as bad as any team in their opener, and I can't imagine they play that poorly again, or play no defense again. There's some value with the road team here, and with the line moving to reflect that perception, lean to MEMPHIS and the OVER.
Los Angeles Clippers @ Golden State Warriors (-4.5) with a total of 219
Two teams on the rise get to square off early in the year, and based on what we saw in the opener, the Warriors were definitely the more impressive team. The Clippers played the Blazers tough for 3 quarters, and then, like the Suns before them, couldn't penetrate the Portland defense in the final quarter. They won't have that issue with Golden State, who will just look to outscore its opponent. Can the Clippers keep up? The Clippers, last year, could count on a size advantage against the Warriors, and they probably still have a minor one, but with Biedrins healthy and able to focus on mostly rebounding, and David Lee doing some of the dirty work in Golden State, the Warriors can actually clean the glass. These games always just come down to which team is going to shoot the higher percentage, so with that in mind, I'd prefer the team with the point guard that can shoot. Lean to WARRIORS and the OVER.
Los Angeles Lakers (-4) @ Phoenix Suns with a total of 212
Doesn't this line seem eerily low, considering the Suns played last night in Utah? To Phoenix's credit, they're playing with some big-time nuts so far this year, but the second night of a back-to-back, and going against the defending Champs, who, for the same reason as always, took a team lightly in their home opener. The Lakers didn't seem to take teams all that seriously on the road, either, and the notion that this line would be -2 if Phoenix hadn't played yesterday is a pretty interesting thought. That means the Lakers are just 5 points better than Phoenix on a neutral court, which is also roughly how that game with Houston opened. Hm...so, are oddsmakers saying Phoenix and Houston are the same? Something doesn't add up. The Lakers needed an opening-night comeback to beat the Rockets, and I wonder if Phoenix doesn't just keep scoring. When the Lakers are focused, they can severely outmuscle the Suns, but I don't think they're focused. Lean to PHOENIX and the OVER.
Game of the day: Magic at Heat
It could be termed a Heat-ed rivalry or a Magic-al matchup, or simply just the first installment of what figures to be many intense battles over the next several seasons.
The Miami Heat play their first home game of the LeBron James era Friday night against the Orlando Magic, their in-state neighbors from four hours up the freeway.
Odds
Miami opened as a 4-point favorite but was quickly bet down to -3. The total was originally posted at 184 points and has been moved two and a half points with action on the over.
The Magic have had the edge in this state rivalry, going 12-4-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings with the Heat. The teams split their four games last season, going 2-2 SU and ATS. The over/under also finished 2-2 in those matchups.
Florida keys
Orlando has been the area’s NBA power with three straight 50-win seasons and a trip to the NBA Finals two seasons ago. The Magic built their team around superstar Dwight Howard and have surrounded with him complimentary pieces that enhance his style.
Miami is vying to get back into title contention with the high-priced free-agent additions of James and Chris Bosh to team with superstar guard Dwyane Wade. The Heat went for the immediate dividends of star power and then added spare parts.
Growing pains
The Heat’s first two games were a mixed bag as a team full of newcomers adjusts to each other’s style. Miami lost to the Boston Celtics in Tuesday’s opener and defeated the overmatched Philadelphia 76ers on Wednesday.
Orlando cruised through an undefeated preseason and then opened up its new arena Thursday night with a 29-point rout of the Washington Wizards. The margin of victory matched the franchise record for largest opening-game win.
Howard dominated with 23 points and 10 rebounds, while Vince Carter (18 points) and Jameer Nelson (16 points) also played well.
Meanwhile, Miami’s Big Three is working through the kinks.
James had 31 points against Boston and then dropped to 16 against Philadelphia. He has committed 17 turnovers – eight against the Celtics and nine against the 76ers.
Wade scored 30 points against the 76ers after struggling mightily with just 13 points on 4-of-16 shooting against Boston.
Bosh had eight points and eight rebounds against Boston and followed up with 15 points and seven boards against the 76ers.
Forging his way into the trio’s stardom time was reserve James Jones, who matched his career-high with six 3-point hoops against the 76ers while scoring 20 points.
History
Over the previous five seasons, Orlando has beaten Miami in 15 of 20 meetings while establishing itself as Florida’s top NBA franchise.
Miami will be threatening that reign after the offseason additions that have intensified the rivalry.
Orlando fans haven’t been all that smitten with James, who was sharply criticized for not shaking the hands of the Magic players when his Cleveland Cavaliers were ousted by Orlando in the Eastern Conference finals two years ago.
No matter what happens Friday, it will be a highly intense atmosphere in Miami.
Tips and Trends
Los Angeles Lakers at Phoenix Suns
LAKERS: (-4.5, O/U 210) Los Angeles opened up defense of their past 2 NBA Championships with a hard earned come from behind win over the Houston Rockets. The Lakers showed off their depth in ultimately winning 112-110 in a high scoring affair. The common theme of the Lakers will be of winning games SU, but not covering from an ATS standpoint. C Pau Gasol looked like the best player in basketball in the season opener, scoring 29 PTS and grabbing 11 rebounds. F Lamar Odom had 14 PTS and 10 rebounds in his own right, proving how this Lakers team can't be considered soft anymore. G Kobe Bryant was his typical brilliant self, scoring 27 PTS and dishing out 7 assists in victory. Los Angeles has won 7 of their past 10 games against the Suns, including their playoff series last season. The Lakers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as the listed favorite. Los Angeles is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against the Western Conference. The Lakers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against a team with a losing SU record.
Lakers are 2-8-1 ATS last 11 games as a road favorite up to 4.5 points.
Under is 4-0 last 4 road games overall.
Key Injuries - F Luke Walton (hamstring) is questionable.
Projected Score: 110 (SIDE of the Day)
SUNS: Phoenix will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days tonight. Luckily for them, they will be able play on adrenaline since this is their season home opener tonight. The Suns are a different team this year without the service of F A'mare Stoudemire, so it's important that the Suns play well in their first opportunity in front of their home fans. PG Steve Nash will likely play limited minutes tonight, considering this is the Suns 1st time playing the back end of consecutive nights. In addition to their home opener, Phoenix will be playing with revenge on their minds. The Suns were eliminated from the playoffs last year to the Lakers in 6 games of the Western Conference Finals. The Suns will need their bench to play well if they are to beat the Lakers tonight. Another great performance from F Hakim Warrick just might do the trick. Warrick had a great double double just last night against the Jazz. The Suns are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games against a team with a winning SU record. The Suns are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 Friday games overall. Phoenix is 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600%. The Suns are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games against the Western Conference.
Suns are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 home games.
Under is 7-3 in Suns last 10 games as a home underdog.
Key Injuries - None Reported.
Projected Score: 99