Friday's Best NBA Bets
Portland Trail Blazers at Oklahoma City Thunder
Kenny “The Jet” Smith perfectly broke down the current state of the Thunder and the team’s win-with-offense mentality.
“They are just like your girlfriend, Chuck,” Smith said to TNT co-host Charles Barkley, “they look pretty, but no brains.”
And it’s pretty hard to argue with The Jet. The Thunder, the pick by many teams to finish second in the Western Conference and challenge the two-time defending champion Lakers, is sloppy at best on defense. Oklahoma City is 22nd in the league in points allowed (103.9), 28th in opponents field goal percentage (48.1) and 27th in opponents three-point percentage (40.4).
Combine those lack-luster numbers, along with an offense that is among the more dynamic in the league, and you have a recipe which has led to the team’s 6-1 mark against the total this season. Kevin Durant is averaging a phenomenal 28.1 points per game and Russell Westbrook, the team’s scoring point, averages 7.9 assists per night.
"This is not us," Durant said. "This is not our team. We're a lockdown defending team."
So far this season, they aren’t.
Pick: Over
New York Knicks at Minnesota Timberwolves
Don’t call the Knicks road warriors. But the team isn’t exactly road kill either.
The Knicks have split four road games this season and looked more than respectable in all but one. New York won outright as an underdog in Chicago and Toronto and then lost a nail-bitter to Boston, 105-101, but covered the spread in Massachusetts.
"We are playing well, we really are," New York forward Amar’e Stoudemire said. "We're doing a good job defensively. That's the most important factor for us right now. Our offensive is going to work itself out. Guys are slowly getting into their rhythm out there. It seems to be playing well for us."
Meantime the Timberwolves have been a punching bag for the rest of the league, going 2-7 SU this season and just 3-6 ATS. The biggest problem for this team is easy – it’s playing some of the worst defense in the league. Minnesota is yielding nearly 110 points per game, the second-worst total in the game, and is allowing opponents to shoot a whopping 47 percent from the floor.
In three home games this year, the team is a mediocre 1-2 and has given up more than 112 points in two of those losses.
Pick: Knicks
NBA betting streaks collide when Hawks host Jazz
By: Barry Daniels
A three-game winning streak might not seem that impressive in the NBA, especially when a team plays 82 regular season contests. But the Utah Jazz will take a very unusual three-game winning streak into their Friday night affair with an Atlanta Hawks club that is looking to snap a three-game losing skid.
According to the Elias Sports Bureau, Utah is the first team during the shot-clock era to win three consecutive games after trailing by 10 points at the half. In fact, the Jazz trailed by as many as 18 points in all three outings. Two of those three games did not end in regulation time.
The latest comeback victory occurred Wednesday when Utah defeated Orlando as a 10 ½-point road underdog, 104-94. The win raised Utah’s ledger to 5-3 straight up and 4-4 against the NBA spread.
The combined 198 points skipped above the 195 ½-point closing total, which enabled the ‘over’ to cash in Utah’s last three efforts. The ‘over’ also improved to 8-2 in Utah’s last 10 road encounters dating to last season.
Al Jefferson recorded 21 points for the Jazz on 10-of-16 shooting. The power forward also grabbed eight rebounds and was the initial centerpiece of a Utah team that took an 18-13 lead midway through the first quarter. He played a close second to Deron Williams during the final period, delivering nine points on perfect 4-of-4 shooting as the Jazz outscored the Magic 39-20.
Despite leading 18-13 late in the first quarter, the Jazz trailed by 10 at halftime and scored just 13 points during the second period. As a result, Utah’s trend of awkward beginnings continued, with the Jazz recording less than 40 points during the first half for the fourth consecutive game.
Utah’s Paul Millsap is one of three players in the league averaging at least 20 points and 10 rebounds per game. Millsap is posting a team-high 24 points and 10.9 boards per outing, joining Orlando’s Dwight Howard and the Lakers’ Pau Gasol in that valued category.
Jerry Sloan’s troops have registered triple-digits in five of their last six games, including the last three in a row. The surge has lifted Utah’s offense to sixth in the league at 104.2 points per game.
Utah usually hangs its hat on tough defense, but that unit is allowing 103.4 PPG, which ranks a poor 20th. However, the Jazz are holding their opponents to just 30.6 percent shooting from beyond the arch, which ranks third.
After starting the 2010-11 campaign with six straight victories, the Atlanta Hawks have dropped their last three games.
The latest failure occurred Wednesday when the Hawks suffered a 108-91 setback as 6 ½-point home favorites against the Milwaukee Bucks. The non-cover lowered Atlanta’s spread record to 4-5 overall and 0-4 at home. In fact, the Hawks are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 overall outings dating to last season.
Though the combined 199 points sailed ‘over’ the 187 ½-point closing total, the ‘under’ is still 7-2 in Atlanta’s last nine home efforts going back to last year.
Backup center Zaza Pachulia led the Hawks with 16 points, while star forward Josh Smith managed just eight points and eight rebounds. The Hawks couldn't match the Bucks' intensity, especially in the second and third periods when Milwaukee outscored Atlanta, 67-33.
Atlanta’s Marvin Williams (right knee bone bruise) and Maurice Evans (sore right knee) did not play in Wednesday’s loss. Evans is listed as “questionable” for Friday’s game. Williams, who won’t return until mid-November, has now missed four straight games. The Hawks are 1-3 without their starting power forward.
Though Larry Drew’s Hawks are shooting a league-best 49.8 percent from the field, they are just 11th in the league offensively with a 102.6 PPG average. The defense is ranked 10th, allowing an average of 99.4 points per outings.
The Hawks captured both meetings against the Jazz last season. Atlanta took the first meeting as six-point home favorites, 96-83. The combined 179 points catapulted well below the 207-point closing total.
Atlanta then made it a season sweep by notching a 105-100 victory at Utah as three-point road underdogs. The combined 205 points soared ‘over’ the 193 ½-point closing total.
Utah concludes its four-game road excursion with a Friday trip to Charlotte, while the Hawks stay home for a Saturday showdown against Minnesota.
NBA Odds: Thunder host Trail Blazers
By: Adam Markowitz
It was only last Thursday when the Oklahoma City Thunder took down the Portland Trail Blazers in overtime 107-106 at the Rose Garden to make a big statement to the Northwest Division leaders. Now, the scene shifts back to the great state of Oklahoma, where these two squads will crack skulls once again in a battle against the NBA betting lines on Friday.
The most important knee right now in the NBA might belong to Brandon Roy. The fifth-year guard is awaiting the prognosis for his swollen knee, and though he is continuing to play through the pain and the swelling, his limits and productivity have both been cut dramatically. "The Natural" has only scored 19 points in total in his last two games against the Los Angeles Lakers and Detroit Pistons, and he has only played a total of 52 minutes in those outings.
Roy is still leading Portland in scoring at 19.2 PPG, but it is clear that someone else is going to have to step up and pick up the scoring load for the Blazers to continue with their hot 6-3 SU and 5-3-1 ATS marks in 2010-11.
Perhaps that man will be F LaMarcus Aldridge. The former University of Texas standout dropped 19 points and grabbed 17 boards Tuesday night against the Pistons in Portland's most recent game, and he has averaged 19.7 PPG in the month of November. With four double-doubles already under his belt, Aldridge is always a huge threat to go off for some huge numbers.
The Thunder aren't off to the start this year that many NBA betting fans were hoping for, as 4-3 SU and 2-5 ATS records aren't all that impressive for the squad that was expected to win this division running away and contend for the NBA title.
We can talk about impressive trios in the NBA all you want and mention names like Dwyane Wade, LeBron James and Chris Bosh or Ray Allen, Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce. But it isn't going to be that many triumvirates that you mention before coming to Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and Jeff Green.
The three cornerstones of the Oklahoma City franchise are all off to fantastic starts this season. Durant is averaging 28.1 PPG this year, and that's in spite of the fact that he is only shooting 39.4 percent from the floor. Even though Westbrook is shooting just 8.3 percent from downtown, he is stuffing the stat sheet to the tune of 22.6 points, 7.8 assists, 6.3 boards, and 2.1 steals per game. Green is averaging 19.4 PPG and 7.2 RPG.
However, the former Georgetown Hoya has been dealing with a sprained ankle that has kept him out of the lineup for the last two games. Green is listed as day to day. With Green out of the lineup, F Serge Ibaka has really stepped in and played well. Ibaka is averaging 10.7 PPG and 8.0 RPG, and he also has blocked 15 shots on the year.
The Thunder played a fantastic game earlier this year against Portland, as they outrebounded the Blazers 47-38 and shot 49.4 percent from the field in the OT victory. Oklahoma City must cut down its turnovers if it hopes to win again on Friday, as losing this battle 16-10 was the only reason that the game had to go to overtime.
The OKC win and cover against the NBA odds snapped a 6-1 SU and ATS edge that the Blazers held in this series from the end of the '08-'09 campaign through last season.
NBA RoundUp for 11/12
By Dan Bebe
Utah Jazz @ Atlanta Hawks (-3.5) with a total of 201.5
This game strikes me as the prototypical scheduling "game before the game" (to use a Jersey Shore terminology). Utah is playing their 3rd game of a 4-game brutal road trip, the 3rd game in 4 nights preceding a 4th game in 5 nights, and also the 3rd game against stiff competition (coming after 2 amazing games with the Heat and Magic), just preceding a 4th game against a rather weak opponent, the Bobcats, tomorrow. Did that make sense? Whatever the case, this is the type of game where my instinct is to watch this game from start to finish, every minute, and get a feel for the type of energy Utah expends. If Utah has to go to the bottom of the barrel to get this win, or dominates Atlanta, tomorrow is going to be a tough game to "get up" for. If Atlanta comes out and plays their game of the month, Utah might be looking to get some revenge tomorrow. Motivation is so key in the NBA, and this is one of those 2-games in 2-games spots for the Jazz where we can learn a lot about the team by its performance in the first game. PASS on the side, lean to OVER on the total.
Houston Rockets @ Indiana Pacers (-4.5) with a total of 215
Will anyone play defense in this game, I wonder? Houston is likely without the services of Yao Ming, and definitely without the services of Aaron Brooks, so it's going to be the Luis Scola and Kevin Martin show again. They were unable to conquer the Washington Wizards in the opener of this road trip, and I fail to see how this is a game where things get any easier. The Pacers, though, might be a little overrated thanks to their incredible offense show in that game against the Nuggets. For that reason, and that reason alone, I think the Pacers are giving about a point too much. Houston is playing pretty terrible defense, so Indiana might score a ton of points again, but they're just not going to shoot 95% for a quarter, and they're not going to shoot 65% for a game. Neither team is in any particularly good or bad scheduling spot, and neither team has any strong situational angles to pursue, so going on line alone, small lean to HOUSTON to keep it close, and to the UNDER because of inflation.
Toronto Raptors @ Orlando Magic (-14) with a total of 200
This is one of those games where I almost don't want to handicap it. Neither team has any amazing situational or scheduling angles to discuss, and the line is so damn high that you can't really make a strong argument for either side. So, quickly...Toronto is starting a 4-game road trip, which is usually a very slight ATS edge, since the team often brings some of the best energy in the first game. Orlando has a game tomorrow with Jersey, so there's no real look-ahead or letdown involved, and Toronto plays in Miami tomorrow, probably looking at a line up around 17 for that one. The Raptors struggle to score against good defenses and struggle to rebound against strong teams, so this one could get ugly. It depends on how Orlando decides to play, which makes both the side and total coin flips. PASS ALL AROUND.
Charlotte Bobcats @ Washington Wizards (Pk) with a total of 189
The Bobcats are a troubled team. Yes, they're coming off a rare road win in Toronto, but they let the Raptors score 96 points, and that just wouldn't have happened last year. The slow progress of D.J. Augustin is going to basically determine what this team can do, since the loss of Tyson Chandler has left them without anyone to protect the rim. John Wall, meanwhile, is coming off an unbelievable game against the Rockets. Does he follow it up with a total stinker like he did in New York after his last huge game? Charlotte is going to try to make him work, but the Bobcats have lost my trust. I'm not certain Washington has really earned my trust, but in this particular spot, the Bobcats are a total mess, and I'm not backing them unless the situation is perfect. Here, they need to win to cover, so...slight lean to WASHINGTON and a little bigger lean to the UNDER.
New York Knicks (-2.5) @ Minnesota Timberwolves with a total of 214.5
This is yet another game on a rather mundane Friday card that features two teams with very little motivation, minimal situational angles of note, and no real scheduling anomalies to exploit. Observe: the Knicks head on the road for just 1 game, having lost 3 straight to the Sixers, Bucks and Warriors. They go home to host the Rockets after this game. The Wolves return home off a road trip, but only a 3-game set, and one where they started to play a little better. Is Michael Beasley starting to emerge as a team leader? Is Sebastian Telfair playing point guard like he knows what he's doing? The Wolves, aside from some absurd turnover numbers in LA, actually looked borderline competent in 2 of their 3 road games, but unless Minnesota is catching 8-9 points, they're a tough team to back. Still, the Knicks don't play much in the way of defense, so they are beatable by any team on any given night, and if Minny takes care of the ball to any degree, they'll compete. Very small lean to MINNESOTA, and the UNDER.
Philadelphia 76ers @ Dallas Mavericks with a total of N/A
Handicapping Mavericks games is almost getting too easy. And, of course, as soon as I type that, the whole thing is going to come apart. The Mavericks are a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS on the road, and a rather pedestrian 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS at home. It continues. In terms of scheduling, Dallas has a rather important home-and-home coming up with the Hornets, so it's pretty safe to assume that the Sixers weren't the top priority for Dallas on this 2-game homestand. That being said, Philadelphia can disappear at times, so they're always going to be a bit of a risk. This line is off because of a few injury concerns. Dirk Nowitzki sprained his ankle in Dallas's game in Memphis, and Andre Iguodala is trying to get back to playing shape, as well. I'd love to see a giant line on this game, since I believe Philadelphia will compete - they're an improving young team with no place to go but up, and Dallas just can't shut the door on teams in their home building. It's getting to the point where it's a little weird, but hey, it is what it is. Lean to PHILADELPHIA and the UNDER.
Sacramento Kings @ Phoenix Suns (-7.5) with a total of 218
There's no question, this total is inflated. The Kings have been playing some pretty ugly basketball on their most recent homestand, so now we'll see if some room service can help them get back on track. However you slice it, though, Sacramento only put up 91 points against Memphis, and only 89 against the Timberwolves, and those offensive numbers simply won't get it done. The big problem with backing Phoenix in this game is that they have a bit of a look-ahead on the chart, and they're slated to play the Lakers, in LA, on Sunday. What we've seen, though, is that size is what gives Phoenix issues, and the teams that have bothered the Suns so far (in a real way) have been the Lakers and Blazers. Yes, the Suns also dropped a game in Memphis, and one to the Spurs, but there were other factors at play in those games. Phoenix handled Utah, they handled Atlanta as well. This line is somewhat on the low side, I feel, and now it's up to us to determine if that's value on Phoenix, or if something more is working, here. Still, until I see Sacramento figure out how to score again, lean to the square-shaped SUNS and the UNDER.
Portland Trailblazers @ Oklahoma City Thunder with a total of N/A
Here we go. Finally, a good game. The Blazers and Thunder get a rematch just 8 days after Oklahoma City rolled into Portland and picked up a hard-fought overtime win, much to the Blazers chagrin. Of course, there were other factors at play in that game that aren't quite so prominent here. For instance, Oklahoma City was coming off an ugly loss to the Clippers in LA the night before. They were embarrassed, pissed off, and catching a ton of points. Also, Portland was playing their first home game off a highly successful 3-1 road trip out East, with the only loss coming at the hands of the hot-shooting Chicago Bulls. They were feeling fat and sassy, and some home sluggishness may have cost them a regulation win. Now, Portland, a quality road team, is playing with revenge on the brain, and the Thunder still don't look quite right, especially on defense. Yes, Portland has a big game in New Orleans tomorrow, but this is the division rivalry game, so I don't believe a look-ahead is in order, and both teams are coming into this game off medium-sized wins. I expect we'll see the Thunder open as a slight favorite (2 points, perhaps), and if that's the case, lean to the BLAZERS and to the UNDER, since the last meeting was high scoring and involved OT.
Detroit Pistons @ Los Angeles Clippers with a total of N/A
Call me crazy, but I actually like the Pistons in this scheduling spot. This is a long, slow, drawn out road trip for a fairly rickety Pistons club that really needs every possible day to rest that they can get. And to their credit, they're starting to play a little better, specifically on the offensive side of the ball. The substitutions are making more sense, and guys are making some shots. Of course, the defense is still a step slow (thank you to rock solid defenders like Ben Gordon), but I'm not sure how much that's going to matter here. Why? Well, the Clippers are in a rather unenviable scheduling spot. This is their first game home off a brutally tough road trip where they went 0-4 SU, but actually covered 3 of the 4 spreads. Guys are banged up for the Clips, and they played above themselves with their stars out, but all that extra energy expended in games with Denver, Utah, and San Antonio (they didn't play that hard in New Orleans) is going to catch up with all these career reserves playing starters' minutes. Also, this is a sluggish scheduling spot for a team that doesn't play again for 3 days. I think we'll see a line favoring the Clips by a few points, and I lean to the PISTONS on the side, and I think we'll see an accurate total.
NBA Handicapping Preview: Portland Trail Blazers at Oklahoma City Thunder
By: Jeff Mattingly
Portland has an important road matchup with the Oklahoma City Thunder on Friday night, but the team’s focus is concerned almost entirely on the knees of star guard Brandon Roy. He may be sidelined due to consistent swelling in his left knee that has worsened over the past coupe games. The Blazers did pick up an impressive 100-78 win against the Detroit Pistons last time out, hitting 10 of their first 12 shots and ending the first quarter with a 36-25 lead. “We felt like we had the game under control so we didn’t bring Brandon back in the second half,” said head coach Nate McMillan. Without Roy, the team is likely not to improve upon its point total via the fastbreak, scoring 10 or fewer in six games this season.
The Blazers dropped a 107-106 overtime game to the Thunder in their first matchup this season at the Rose Garden on November 4, but the team has still won six of the past eight meetings overall against them. Portland is also looking to win its fourth-straight game in Oklahoma City. Early season fatigue could become a factor for the squad, as they were the only NBA team to play nine games in the first 15 days of the season. Portland will play 22 back-to-back situations in the 2010-11 campaign, including this weekend’s contests at Oklahoma City and New Orleans. Currently, the team is averaging 100.3 points in the first game and 94.7 in the second.
Oklahoma City picked up its fourth victory of the season with a 109-103 win over visiting Philadelphia on Wednesday behind 31 points each by forward Kevin Durant and guard Russell Westbrook. “So far, I think we’ve been doing a good job closing down games,” said guard Thabo Sefolosha. “Every time we’re close in the fourth quarter, we’ve been able to come out on top.” The 109 points was a season-best for the team offensively and moves them to a perfect 4-0 when scoring 100-plus points. Oklahoma City is 1-3 ATS at home this season and 2-5 ATS in all games.
The Thunder are shooting 42.5 percent from the field and allowing nearly six points more per game this season than in 2009-10, but the team is getting it done in the final frame. Oklahoma City is hitting 52.6 percent of its shots in the last three minutes of a game, while holding opponents to 29.7 percent. Another strong part of their game has been success at the charity stripe, knocking down a league-best 87.3 percent of its free throws, led by Durant’s team-best 91.4 mark.
Bettors will likely lay the Blazers due to their 1-4-1 ATS mark when playing on two days rest, while the Thunder are 1-4 ATS versus the Western Conference.