NBA News and Notes Friday 11/19

NBA Odds: Revenge-minded Thunder at Celtics
By: Michael Robinson

The Oklahoma City Thunder look for revenge Friday night when they get an early NBA betting rematch at the Boston Celtics. This is the last regular season meeting of the year between these interconference foes.

The Thunder are 7-4 straight up, but just 4-7 against the spread. They have won and ‘covered’ their last two games, 115-108 at Utah as 6 ½-point ‘dogs on Monday and 116-99 at home over Houston as 6 ½-point favorites on Wednesday. Both of those games were played without forward Jeff Green who is out with an ankle injury.

The 215 combined points against Houston went ‘over’ the 210-point total. The ‘over’ is 5-0 in Oklahoma City’s last five games, with the team scoring 110.8 PPG and allowing 107 PPG.

Oklahoma City is seventh in the league in scoring for the year (104.2 PPG), but just 25th in defense (105.4 PPG). The ‘over’ is 10-1 for the season. The defense has taken a big step back after allowing just 98 PPG last year.

Kevin Durant leads the NBA at 28 PPG. The No. 2 overall pick in the 2007 draft is a superstar in every sense of the word. He must haunt the Portland Trail Blazers, especially with the breaking news that No. 1 pick Greg Oden (knee) is out for the year again.

Point guard Russell Westbrook continues to develop at age 22. His 23.3 PPG is over seven points higher than last year (16.1 PPG). Green (18.2 PPG) is a consistent scorer when healthy, and 6-foot-10 Serge Ibaka (12.1 PPG) has looked very good off the bench and spot-starting for Green. The Thunder are still very young overall with Durant, Westbrook, Green and Ibaka all 24 or younger.

The first game against Boston was home on Nov. 7 . The Thunder lost 92-83 as 2 ½-point favorites, their lowest output of the year. It was also the only ‘under’ for the season. Durant had 34 points, but Westbrook struggled at 6-of-16 from the field (16 points).

Oklahoma City committed 18 turnovers and shot just 42.7 percent from the field. Green didn’t play in that game and is questionable for Friday.

Boston (9-2 SU, 7-4 ATS) has gotten off to strong start, not showing any lingering effects from the devastating NBA Finals loss to the Lakers.

The team’s aging stars of Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen are all injury-free and looking spry so far. It helps that there’s good team depth as their minutes are all averaging in the 30s.

The one position of concern is center with Jermaine O’Neal (knee) out for a couple of weeks and Kendrick Perkins already out until February. Shaquille O’Neal is manning the middle, but he missed five games earlier with injury.

Boston’s last game was a 114-83 home win over Washington on Wednesday. The Wizards were without rookie sensation John Wall and this game was over after three quarters. Delonte West played his first game after a 10-game league suspension and he’ll fill a key role as the backup point guard playing alongside Nate Robinson.

The Celtics easily ‘covered’ the 13 ½-point spread, their first home ‘cover’ in the last four games.

The Thunder are 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS on the road this year. They won in Boston last year 109-104 as three-point underdogs.

Durant had 37 points and seemingly went to the line at will, making 15-of-15 free throws. He’s a matchup problem for any small forward in the league with his 6-foot-9 height, shooting right over the 6-foot-7 Pierce.

Tip-off from the TD Banknorth Garden is 4:00 p.m. (PT). ESPN have the coverage, followed by Chicago at Dallas.

The Thunder have a tough trip all the way back to Milwaukee on Saturday night. Boston is at Toronto on Sunday.

NBA betting streaks meet in Utah
By: Joe Freda

The San Antonio Spurs have won eight straight contests, with an NBA spread record of 5-2-1 in that stretch. Gregg Popovich’s crew travels for Friday’s matchup against the Utah Jazz, who are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games.

San Antonio’s latest victory came in Wednesday’s 103-94 triumph as a 6 ½-point home favorite against the Chicago Bulls. The Spurs built up an 18-point lead in the second half thanks to outscoring Chicago, 37-12, in the third quarter.

Spurs guard Tony Parker notched team-highs of 21 points and seven assists. The 28-year-old hit 9-of-14 shots from the field, while adding three rebounds.

San Antonio’s Tim Duncan grabbed a team-high 18 boards en route to finishing with 16 points. The 12-time All-Star added five assists and two blocks.

The combined 197 points ducked below the ‘total’ of 203 ½, ending a 3-0 ‘over’ streak from the San Antonio’s prior three games. Both squads united to connect on 12-of-30 buckets from three-point land, while sinking only 25-of-36 free throws.

The Spurs are 3-0-1 ATS in their first four road games, with the ‘total’ splitting at 2-2. Duncan and Co. have allowed a stingy 98.2 PPG in that span.

Utah picked up its fourth double-digit win in Wednesday’s 98-88 victory as a 9 ½-point home favorite against the New Jersey Nets. The Jazz drained only 1-of-12 from beyond the arc, while holding New Jersey to 37.6 percent shooting from the field.

Jazz guard Deron Williams logged team-highs of 23 points and eight assists. The 26-year-old connected on 12-of-13 foul shots and added two steals.

Utah’s Paul Milsap notched his fourth double-double of the season with 19 points and 15 rebounds. The Louisiana native hit 5-of-15 field buckets in his 42 minutes on the floor.

The battle’s combined 186 points plunged below the ‘total’ of 196 ½, bringing the ‘under’ to 2-5 in the Jazz’ last seven games.

Utah’s win improved Jerry Sloan’s squad to 2-3 ATS in its first five home games, with the ‘under’ also moving to 2-3. The Jazz have put up a scorching 106.8 PPG in that stretch, hitting 46.2 percent of their shots from the field.

Utah is 4-0 SU and ATS in its last four games against the Spurs, with the ‘over’ going 3-1. Williams has notched 20.8 PPG in that span for the Jazz, while Duncan has logged 10.8 RPG for San Antonio.

Friday’s tip is scheduled for 6 p.m. (PT), with both squads playing the front end of a back-to-back spot. San Antonio returns home to face the Cleveland Cavaliers as part of Saturday’s league slate, while Utah travels to meet the Portland Trail Blazers

Tips and Trends

Chicago Bulls at Dallas Mavericks

BULLS: Chicago is coming off their own loss in their last game, snapping a 4 game SU winning streak. The Bulls are 6-4 SU and 5-4-1 ATS overall this season. The Bulls are 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS as the listed underdog this year. Chicago lost both meetings to the Mavericks last season in hard fought close fashion. The Bulls would like nothing more than to exact some revenge in Dallas. Chicago is averaging 102.9 PPG this year, 9th best in the NBA. PG Derrick Rose is averaging 25.5 PPG and 8.7 APG this season, both team highs. C Joakim Noah is averaging 15.4 PPG and a team high 12.9 RPG this season. As a team, the Bulls are shooting 47.7% from the field, 5th best in the NBA. The Bulls have held 4 of their past 5 opponents under 100 PTS. In order to beat Dallas tonight, Chicago will have to play with a strong defensive intensity. The Bulls are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Chicago is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss. The Bulls are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 1 days rest. Chicago is 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games against the NBA Southwest. The Bulls are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a SU loss. Chicago is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games against a team with a winning home record.

Bulls are 12-4 ATS last 16 road games against a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600%.
Under is 4-0 last 4 games against the Western Conference.

Key Injuries - F Carlos Boozer (hand) is out.

Projected Score: 99 (SIDE of the Day)

MAVERICKS: (-5, O/U 195) Dallas is coming off a rare loss, as they were beaten by the Hornets in a revenge situational spot. Dallas is 7-3 SU and 5-3-2 ATS overall this season. The Mavericks haven't won any of their previous 4 games as the listed favorite. The Mavericks have been winning with their defense this year, considering they've only scored more than 100 PTS in 3 games this year. The Mavericks are only allowing 92.6 PPG this year, 4th fewest in the NBA. F Dirk Nowitzki is leading Dallas with 23.6 PPG and 8.6 RPG this year. G Jason Terry has been outstanding in his own right this year, averaging nearly 20 PPG while shooting better than 52% from the field. The Mavericks averaged 117.5 PPG last season in their 2 meetings with Chicago .The Mavericks are 14-35-3 ATS in their last 52 home games overall. Dallas is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against the NBA Central. The Mavericks are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games against the Eastern Conference.

Mavericks are 5-19-2 ATS last 26 home games against a team with a losing road record.
Under is 4-1 last 5 games against the Eastern Conference.

Key Injuries - G Rodrique Beaubois (foot) is questionable.

Projected Score: 96

NBA RoundUp for 11/19
By Dan Bebe

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Boston Celtics (-7.5) with a total of 201
This should be a good game. Something about it just makes me feel like we're in for a treat. The Thunder are scoring points in big-time bunches lately, putting up at least 104 points in each of their last 5 games, and winning 4 of those. The last team to hold them under 100? These very Boston Celtics, when they came into Oklahoma City and dominated the Thunder to the tune of a 92-83 final score. The Thunder are still having some defensive issues, and someone with the sheer size of Shaq should give them some issues with rebounding, but the Thunder can get Shaq in foul trouble quickly, and get themselves into the penalty. You do not want to let the Thunder shoot free throws, and getting to the line is going to be a top priority for OkC in this contest. Boston's team defense is going to try to keep that from happening. I do think the revenge angle will come into play a little, though Boston is really focused this year on stepping on other teams' throats when they get ahead. So, the simple question - can the Thunder keep this game close? If so, I think Boston will tire a little more quickly, and as the game progresses, the teams will get closer to each other in intensity. If that's the case, you have to like the Thunder. If you believe Boston gets out to an early lead, this is a team that plays well from ahead. For my sanity, I lean to the THUNDER and the OVER.

Milwaukee Bucks (-3.5) @ Philadelphia 76ers with a total of 187
The Sixers are pretty terrible, and they're even worse without Andre Iguodala. I'll admit, I didn't think Iguodala's injury would completely take this team out of their gameplan, but it seems like his mere presence on the court gives everyone else confidence, or at least puts them in a better position to succeed. So, while they may be the "sharp" side in this game as the short home dog, I'm just not in a position to back Philadelphia until they show they can play a complete game and get some easy points. The only thing pushing me towards the Philly side is that Milwaukee is coming off a home loss to the Lakers, and after this one, they go right back home to host the Oklahoma City Thunder. So, to some degree, this game could be considered a sandwich affair, but I'm not buying it. The Bucks have taken on the mentality of their coach, and they go out and play their butts off every single night. They will control the pace of the game, they will make fewer mistakes, and they will win. Will they cover? That's where the confusion sets in. Tiny lean to MILWAUKEE, and better lean to the UNDER.

Memphis Grizzlies @ Washington Wizards with a total of N/A
This game, to me, comes down to John Wall's health, and so the lack of early line is completely understandable. We saw Washington step up and play the "Injured Star" game, completely trouncing the Raptors. Then, the next night, the lack of John Wall became all too evident as the "other" guys got shut down entirely by a solid Boston Celtics defense. Now, back home and playing a team that has a level of defensive intensity that probably falls a bit closer to Toronto's end of the spectrum than Boston's, Washington is going to try to put up points. But, if neither team plays defense, and John Wall isn't around to make the exciting plays, Memphis should out-talent the Wizards. Hoooooweeeeeeeverrrrr, and this is a biggie...the Grizzlies HOST the Miami Heat tomorrow. This is a look-ahead spot, and Memphis doesn't even have a day to think about it. My initial reaction is to watch this game and then play the Memphis-Miami game accordingly, but we might very well see an unfocused Grizzlies team. If they're laying too many points, think about the WIZARDS, but a short line is a pass, and if Memphis isn't paying attention, this one could sneak OVER.

Houston Rockets @ Toronto Raptors (-1) with a total of 206.5
This game features a situational/scheduling angle worth noting, as Toronto returns home off a marginally successful road trip that opened with a win in Orlando, a competitive loss in Miami, a bad loss in Washington, and an ugly win in Philadelphia. Now, back home, where Toronto actually hasn't looked much better than they have on the road, the Raptors host a banged up Houston team looking for consistency, health, and a few wins against lesser teams. Houston doesn't play again until next week, while Toronto hosts a division opponent in Boston, though a team as bad as the Raptors doesn't really have any reason to look ahead. So, in terms of just scheduling and situational spots, you have to think the Raptors are at a bit of a disadvantage. In terms of matchups, these teams aren't that different. I happen to think the Rockets are better coached, and can play better defense if they care to, but either team could beat the other on any given night. This night, I like HOUSTON and the UNDER, if but barely.

Charlotte Bobcats @ Miami Heat (-12) with a total of 194
Confound it. This Heat team is going to be playing with lines that are just insane all year long, but I'll admit, I'm having trouble deciding if this line is just wildly inflated because of public hype, or because Miami is about to go on a run, and oddsmakers want to make sure there's sufficient money coming in on the opposite side. This is the final game of a 6-game homestand for the Heat, so you know darn well they're going to want to head out on the road with a good taste in their mouths. For Charlotte, we can be pretty certain they'll be giving max effort in this one, but it remains to be seen if that's going to be enough. Charlotte does not have the type of team that's been giving Miami problems - that is, a quick, healthy, skilled point guard and/or a big man. Charlotte's skill is at the wing positions, and those guys could very easily get dominated by LeBron and Wade. I do like that Charlotte appears to be, at least beginning to play a little better, but this game doesn't have enough reasons for me to take either side. NO LEAN on the side, and I have to think we see a possession game, this total is close to correct, tiny lean to the UNDER.

Los Angeles Lakers (-10) @ Minnesota Timberwolves with a total of 218
Well, last time these teams played, the Wolves kept it nice and close with L.A., but I'm not sure that just wasn't a spot where the Lakers were playing with zero passion and were in a letdown off their big win over Portland. This time around, the Lakers are finishing up a short road trip that they've dominated, so far, and the next game is back home against the Warriors. This isn't a look-ahead spot, a let-down spot, or anything in particular, and I can't help but feel like the Wolves kind of shot their Lakers bullet down in California. The line is probably pretty close to correct, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the Lakers take this one by about a dozen, so miniscule lean to LAKERS, and medium lean to the OVER, since I can't imagine we'll see 50 turnovers between the 2 teams again.

Cleveland Cavaliers @ New Orleans Hornets (-10.5) with a total of 192.5
Amazingly, I happen to think the Cavs might be a better road team right now. Maybe it's the pressure of playing at home without LeBron, maybe it's just coincidental that injuries seem to occur on homestands, but the Cavs have actually shown some signs of life under Byron Scott, if only their impact players could get healthy. Of course, from this line, we can see that oddsmakers are now making the adjustment for the Hornets hot start. This is a big number. This looks like even a bigger number considering the Hornets are coming off a home-and-home series with the Mavs that was referred to as "similar to the playoffs" by some of the players involved. Is this a little bit of a letdown game? Maybe, but the Hornets really are pretty darn good, and if the Cavs aren't healthy, this might be a bit much for them to overcome. The Cavs play tomorrow in San Antonio (the Spurs get ANOTHER team on the second half of a back-to-back...don't get me started on that preferential scheduling), so if we get a strong effort from Cleveland here, maybe they're a fade tomorrow? Today, I think the CAVALIERS sneak under the spread, and I like the UNDER.

San Antonio Spurs @ Utah Jazz (-2.5) with a total of 203.5
Those darn Spurs have really come out of the gates strong, haven't they? As I mentioned above, it was awfully kind of David Stern and co. to give San Antonio a bunch of teams on the second day of a back-to-back, while rarely playing any themselves, but I guess when the League wants to keep a team around for another season or two, the League gets what it wants. This will be a nice test for the Spurs, going on the road to play a strong team playing good basketball, and to me, this line is about right. The Spurs have shown an ability to win both at home and on the road, though I might not take as much away from that win in Oklahoma City as others might. The Spurs just have the Thunder's number. The opposite might be said for this series, as Utah beat the Spurs into submission last year. Yes, San Antonio has better health this time around, and Richard Jefferson is useful, again, but Deron Williams is too strong for Tony Parker, and with a game that's pretty close to a pick, I think you have to consider the home team in the high-energy environment. Lean to UTAH and the OVER.

Chicago Bulls @ Dallas Mavericks (-5) with a total of 195
Fade the Mavs at home, back them on the road, it just keeps holding true. Even in the most improbable of situations. Dallas beat the Hornets at home, but failed to cover, then lost to the Hornets on the road, and managed to cover the spread. It's just insane, at this point. The Bulls, here, continue the Circus trip, having won in Houston with a nice effort, and then lost in San Antonio, once again playing a back-to-back against a rested Spurs team. I can't even believe how many times that concept is coming up in this blog, but the Spurs' scheduling is just irking me today, I guess. In any event, Chicago will tire out at some point on this trip, but in Dallas doesn't seem like the time. They have a few days off after this game, too, to catch their breath, before starting the rest of the long roadie. For Dallas, as we talked about with New Orleans above, this could potentially be viewed as a letdown game, off those 2 hotly contested battles with the Hornets. The Mavericks also play in Atlanta tomorrow, and while I wouldn't call it a look-ahead, the schedule certainly lends to a 90% effort from the Mavs. Can they win and fail to cover yet again? Leans to CHICAGO and the UNDER.

New Jersey Nets @ Sacramento Kings (-3.5) with a total of 196
I'll come right out and say it...I like Jersey in this one. Some of that is because the Kings have no consistency in their rotations on offense (a new small forward gets 25 minutes every night), and some of that is because of the coaching advantage already showing up (sorry Paul Westphal), but mostly, it's scheduling. The Kings have admitted that they're anxious to get a win after losing quite a few games in a row, but the harder they play, the more pressure they put on themselves, and the more mistakes they make. New Jersey plays a slower, defensive-minded game, just the type of basketball that could cause Sacramento to turn the ball over and take bad shots. And who is even going to play? We've seen it in baseball - there's absolutely something to be said for having a bullpen where each player knows his role. Well, in Sacramento, no one knows if they're going to play, or when, and outside of Tyreke Evans, who might be going through some sophomore year growing pains, it's a total mess. Over on the Jersey side, they still stink, but they're competitive pretty consistently, and they're beating bad teams by playing smarter. This has that feel, and on top of that, Jersey plays in Denver tomorrow, with altitude following travel, as the last game of the 4-game roadie. Terrible spot tomorrow, which makes me think Jersey will work a little harder tonight. The one concern? Sacramento did lose in Jersey way back at the beginning of the season. I wonder how much they care... Lean to the NETS, and the UNDER.

New York Knicks @ Golden State Warriors (-3) with a total of 221
This looks too easy to take Golden State, doesn't it? Just laying 3 points? The Warriors are a solid 7-4 on the season, and the Knicks are just 4-8, and yet, they're ranked the exact same on a neutral court? Something fishy, there. So, digging through the numbers and dates to figure out why, I have to think it's a combination of the Knicks finally starting to hit some shots (2nd half in Denver, last game in Sacramento), revenge (Warriors beat New York at MSG), and Golden State on a potential look-ahead to their game in Los Angeles, a revenge game for Golden State. In addition, the lack of David Lee has reared its head pretty considerably so far. They don't have that all-around worker grabbing offensive rebounds, hitting mid-range shots, defending, and of course, putting up bonus effort against his old team. A lot of signs point to the Knicks being a stronger than expected play in this game. Also, the Knicks play their 4th in 5 nights against the Clippers tomorrow, so like the Nets in the game above, this is a nice spot for New York to grab a win before they tucker out. Lean to the KNICKS and to the OVER.

NBA Betting Preview: Houston Rockets at Toronto Raptors
By: Jeff Mattingly

Houston is off to its worst start since opening with a 3-11 record five years ago and its uncertain when center Yao Ming will return to the lineup. He has missed the last four games with a sprained left ankle and head coach Rick Adelman is unsure of what to expect when he returns. “My biggest concern is he was working himself, trying to get in condition,” Adelman said. “Now, he’s missed this time.” The Rockets have tallied two of their three wins against the Eastern Conference and both occurred on the road. The team holds a 17-12 advantage in the all-time series with the Raptors, including a 5-9 mark on the road. Houston is 11-10 ATS versus Atlantic division opponents the last three years.

The Rockets rank fifth in the NBA in scoring this season at 105.5 points per game, which is a couple ticks higher than last year’s unit that posted 102.4 a contest during the 2009-10 campaign. Houston’s scoring has been largely in the paint, ranking third in the league with 46.91 points per game. The team also tends to make the most of its chances on the charity stripe, hitting 79.3 percent of its free throws, which ranks sixth in the NBA. Guard Kevin Martin has been a consistent scorer in the lineup, managing to tally at least 18 points in every game this season.

Toronto capped a 2-2 road trip with a 94-86 victory over the Philadelphia 76ers on Wednesday, holding them to 36.8 percent shooting and 39 points in the second half. “We got an F on Tuesday night,” said forward Reggie Evans. “I think we got a much higher grade here and played with the type of energy we need to be successful.” The league’s schedule-maker has not been kind to the Raptors, as they’ve already going out on two four-game road trips. Seven of the team’s next eight games are at home with no back-to-backs during that stretch, which should prove advantageous to close out the month. The team is 4-14 ATS as a home underdog of three points or less.

The Raptors may have a 12-17 all-time mark against the Rockets, but they have won three in a row in the series at home. Center Andrea Bargnani figures to play an important part in tonight’s contest, coming off a 30-point performance against the Sixers, leading the team by scoring 20.8 points a contest. Toronto is 0-5 versus Western Conference opponents this year, but only one of those games was played at the Air Canada Centre, dropping a 109-102 contest to the Golden State Warriors.

Bettors will likely lay the Rockets due to their 9-20 ATS mark against the Eastern Conference, while the Raptors are 11-27-1 ATS as a home underdog.