San Antonio (7-6 SU and ATS) at Houston (8-7, 9-6 ATS)
The Spurs take their three-game winning streak to the Toyota Center to take on the instate and Southwest Division rival Rockets.
San Antonio has discovered its offense lately, scoring 106 points or more in each of the last three, including Wednesday’s 118-104 home win over the Warriors, barely covering the 13½-point line. In fact, after hitting triple digits just three times in the first 10 games, the Spurs are averaging 112 points per contest in the last three. Tony Parker led the surge on Wednesday with 32 points and seven assists.
Houston is coming off Wednesday’s ugly 130-99 loss to the Mavericks as four-point home favorites. The Rockets have alternated wins and losses in their last 10 games (5-5 ATS) and will be wrapping up a three-game homestand with this one. The defense has abandoned Houston lately, allowing 104.3 points a game and 49 percent shooting from the floor in the last five games.
This is the first meeting between these rivals this season after the two split last year’s four games (SU and ATS) with each winning once at home and once on the road. The underdog holds a 9-4 ATS edge in the last 13 series clashes.
The Spurs have cashed in five straight after getting a day off, but they are on ATS slides of 0-6 on the road, 0-5 as road ‘dogs, 1-5 as an underdog, 3-9 after a spread-cover, 3-8 against Southwest Division teams and 4-10 after a straight-up win. Houston is just 1-4 ATS in its last five as a favorite, but it is on positive pointspread streaks of 6-1 after a day off, 39-19 after a straight-up loss and 37-16 after a non-cover.
San Antonio is on “over” streaks of 9-3-1 after a day off and 4-1 after a spread-cover, but they are on “under” stretches of 6-2 on the road, 20-6 against opponents with winning records and 4-1-1 as an underdog. Meanwhile, Houston is on “under” streaks of 7-3 as a home favorite, 20-8 following a non-cover and 8-2 against Southwest Division squads, but it is on “over” runs of 10-4 overall and 5-2 at home. In this rivalry, the under has been the play in 23 of 29 meetings, including five of six in Houston.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Atlanta Hawks vs. Philadelphia 76ers
The Atlanta Hawks and the Philadelphia 76ers will both be trying to pick up a win on Friday when they battle at Wachovia Center.
The Hawks were held to just 25 points in the second half of a 93-76 loss to the Magic on Thursday, as 3.5-point favorites. The teams played UNDER that game's posted total of 196.5.
Joe Johnson netted 22 points and hauled down seven rebounds in the loss.
Andre Iguodala went for 25 points, nine boards, and nine assists for Philadelphia in its 113-110 loss to Boston on Wednesday night.
Boston couldn't cover as 13-point home favorites, while the game played OVER the 188.5-point total listed by sportsbooks.
Current streak:
Atlanta has lost 2 straight games.
Philadelphia has lost 4 straight games.
Team records:
Atlanta: 11-4 SU, 11-4 ATS
Philadelphia: 5-10 SU, 6-9 ATS
Atlanta most recently:
When playing on Friday are 5-5
Before playing Detroit are 4-6
After playing Orlando are 3-7
After a loss are 5-5
Philadelphia most recently:
When playing on Friday are 5-5
Before playing San Antonio are 3-7
After playing Boston are 7-3
After a loss are 4-6
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Atlanta is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
Atlanta is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 7 games when playing Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 7 games when playing Atlanta
Philadelphia is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Next up:
Atlanta at Detroit, Sunday, November 29
Philadelphia at San Antonio, Sunday, November 29
Washington Wizards vs. Miami Heat
The Washington Wizards and the Miami Heat will meet on the court at AmericanAirlines Arena on Friday in a battle of division rivals.
Antawn Jamison had 32 points and 14 rebounds to lift the Wizards past the 76ers 108-107 on Tuesday night.
Washington cashed as 2.5-point home underdogs, while the teams played OVER the 198-point total listed by oddsmakers.
Dwyane Wade scored 24 points and dished out seven assists to lift the Heat past the Magic 99-98 on Wednesday night.
Miami cashed as 9.5-point road underdogs, while the teams played OVER the 192.5-point total set by sportsbooks.
Current streak:
Miami has won 2 straight games.
Team records:
Washington: 4-9 SU, 3-10 ATS
Miami: 9-5 SU, 7-7 ATS
Washington most recently:
When playing on Friday are 5-5
Before playing Charlotte are 3-7
After playing Philadelphia are 6-4
After a win are 0-10
Miami most recently:
When playing on Friday are 3-7
Before playing Boston are 6-4
After playing Orlando are 5-5
After a win are 5-5
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games when playing on the road against Miami
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games
Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Washington
Miami is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Washington
Miami is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against Washington
Next up:
Washington home to Charlotte, Saturday, November 28
Miami home to Boston, Sunday, November 29
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Charlotte Bobcats
The Cleveland Cavaliers and the Charlotte Bobcats will both be trying to pick up a win on Friday when they battle at Time Warner Cable Arena.
LeBron James went for 34 points, eight rebounds, and seven assists to lead the Cavaliers past the Pistons 98-88 on Wednesday night.
Cleveland covered as 5-point home favorites, while the teams played OVER the 184.5-point total set by oddsmakers.
Gerald Wallace had 31 points and 13 rebounds, as the Bobcats ripped the Raptors 116-81 on Wednesday night.
Charlotte covered as 2.5-point home favorites, while the game played OVER the 194.5-point total listed by oddsmakers.
Current streak:
Cleveland has won 3 straight games.
Charlotte has won 2 straight games.
Team records:
Cleveland: 11-4 SU, 7-8 ATS
Charlotte: 5-9 SU, 9-5 ATS
Cleveland most recently:
When playing on Friday are 8-2
Before playing Dallas are 4-6
After playing Detroit are 9-1
After a win are 8-2
Charlotte most recently:
When playing on Friday are 3-7
Before playing Washington are 4-6
After playing Toronto are 4-6
After a win are 5-5
A few trends to consider:
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Charlotte
Cleveland is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
Cleveland is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Cleveland is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Charlotte is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Charlotte's last 5 games
Charlotte is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home
Charlotte is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Next up:
Cleveland home to Dallas, Saturday, November 28
Charlotte at Washington, Saturday, November 28
Toronto Raptors vs. Boston Celtics
The fans at TD Garden will be treated to a game between the Toronto Raptors and the Boston Celtics when they take their seats on Friday.
Chris Bosh led the way for Toronto with 18 points and 14 boards in its 116-81 loss to Charlotte on Wednesday night.
Charlotte covered as 2.5-point home favorites, while the game played OVER the 194.5-point total listed by oddsmakers.
Paul Pierce had 27 points, six rebounds, and six assists to lead the Celtics past the 76ers 113-110 on Wednesday night.
Boston couldn't cover as 13-point home favorites, while the game played OVER the 188.5-point total listed by sportsbooks.
Current streak:
Boston has won 2 straight games.
Team records:
Toronto: 7-9 SU, 8-8 ATS
Boston: 11-4 SU, 5-10 ATS
Toronto most recently:
When playing on Friday are 3-7
Before playing Phoenix are 5-5
After playing Charlotte are 2-8
After a loss are 5-5
Boston most recently:
When playing on Friday are 7-3
Before playing Miami are 5-5
After playing Philadelphia are 7-3
After a win are 7-3
A few trends to consider:
Toronto is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Boston
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Toronto's last 21 games when playing on the road against Boston
Toronto is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Boston is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Toronto
Boston is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Toronto
Boston is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games at home
Boston is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games
Next up:
Toronto home to Phoenix, Sunday, November 29
Boston at Miami, Sunday, November 29
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Detroit Pistons
The fans at The Palace of Auburn Hills will be treated to a game between the Los Angeles Clippers and the Detroit Pistons when they take their seats on Friday.
Baron Davis drained 25 points for Los Angeles in its 86-73 loss to Indiana on Wednesday night.
Indiana covered as 5.5-point home favorites, while the game played UNDER the 203-point total listed by oddsmakers.
Rodney Stuckey paced Detroit with 25 points and six boards in its 98-88 loss to Cleveland on Wednesday night.
Cleveland covered as 5-point home favorites, while the teams played OVER the 184.5-point total set by oddsmakers.
Current streak:
Detroit has lost 6 straight games.
Team records:
Los Angeles: 6-10 SU, 4-12 ATS
Detroit: 5-10 SU, 8-7 ATS
Los Angeles most recently:
When playing on Friday are 3-7
Before playing Memphis are 2-8
After playing Indiana are 2-8
After a loss are 3-7
Detroit most recently:
When playing on Friday are 6-4
Before playing Atlanta are 6-4
After playing Cleveland are 2-8
After a loss are 2-8
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the LA Clippers last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the LA Clippers last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of the LA Clippers last 9 games on the road
LA Clippers are 7-18 SU in their last 25 games
Detroit is 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing LA Clippers
Detroit is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games when playing at home against LA Clippers
Detroit is 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against LA Clippers
Detroit is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games when playing LA Clippers
Next up:
LA Clippers home to Memphis, Sunday, November 29
Detroit home to Atlanta, Sunday, November 29
Dallas Mavericks vs. Indiana Pacers
The Dallas Mavericks and the Indiana Pacers will both be trying to pick up a win on Friday when they battle at Conseco Fieldhouse.
Jason Terry had 27 points and 10 assists off the bench, as the Mavericks slammed the Rockets 130-99 on Wednesday night.
Dallas cashed as 4-point road underdogs, while the game played OVER the 200-point total posted by sportsbooks.
Troy Murphy went for 18 points and 11 rebounds, as the Pacers stifled the Clippers 86-73 on Wednesday night.
Indiana covered as 5.5-point home favorites, while the game played UNDER the 203-point total listed by oddsmakers.
Team records:
Dallas: 11-4 SU, 10-5 ATS
Indiana: 6-7 SU, 6-7 ATS
Dallas most recently:
When playing on Friday are 4-6
Before playing Cleveland are 5-5
After playing Houston are 8-2
After a win are 7-3
Indiana most recently:
When playing on Friday are 3-7
Before playing Golden State are 7-3
After playing LA Clippers are 3-7
After a win are 6-4
A few trends to consider:
Dallas is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Indiana
Dallas is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Dallas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Indiana's last 8 games at home
Indiana is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Indiana's last 12 games
Indiana is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
Next up:
Dallas at Cleveland, Saturday, November 28
Indiana at Golden State, Monday, November 30
San Antonio Spurs vs. Houston Rockets
Divisional bragging rights will be on the line on Friday when the San Antonio Spurs and the Houston Rockets meet at Toyota Center.
Tony Parker drained 32 points and handed out seven assists to lead the Spurs past the Warriors 118-104 on Wednesday night.
San Antonio covered as 13.5-point home favorites, while the game played OVER the 201.5-point total listed by oddsmakers.
Carl Landry led Houston with 24 points and six boards off the pine in its 130-99 loss to Dallas on Wednesday night.
Dallas cashed as 4-point road underdogs, while the game played OVER the 200-point total posted by sportsbooks.
Current streak:
San Antonio has won 3 straight games.
Team records:
San Antonio: 7-6 SU, 7-6 ATS
Houston: 8-7 SU, 9-6 ATS
San Antonio most recently:
When playing on Friday are 6-4
Before playing Philadelphia are 8-2
After playing Golden State are 6-4
After a win are 5-5
Houston most recently:
When playing on Friday are 2-8
Before playing Oklahoma City are 9-1
After playing Dallas are 8-2
After a loss are 9-1
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of San Antonio's last 12 games when playing Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Antonio's last 6 games when playing on the road against Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Antonio's last 8 games on the road
San Antonio is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games when playing on the road against Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Houston's last 12 games when playing San Antonio
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games when playing at home against San Antonio
Houston is 15-4 SU in its last 19 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 7 games at home
Next up:
San Antonio home to Philadelphia, Sunday, November 29
Houston at Oklahoma City, Sunday, November 29
New York Knicks vs. Denver Nuggets
The fans at Pepsi Center will be treated to a game between the New York Knicks and the Denver Nuggets when they take their seats on Friday.
The Knicks were defeated 111-97 by the Kings last time out as a 4.5-point favorite. The combined score made it fell UNDER the posted total of 215.5.
David Lee and Nate Robinson each had 25 points apiece in a losing effort.
Carmelo Anthony dropped 22 points to lead the Nuggets past the Timberwolves 124-111 on Wednesday night.
Denver covered as 8.5-point road favorites, while the teams played OVER the 203-point total posted by oddsmakers.
Current streak:
New York has lost 3 straight games.
Denver has won 3 straight games.
Team records:
New York: 3-12 SU, 6-9 ATS
Denver: 11-4 SU, 9-6 ATS
New York most recently:
When playing on Friday are 6-4
Before playing Orlando are 2-8
After playing Sacramento are 3-7
After a loss are 2-8
Denver most recently:
When playing on Friday are 6-4
Before playing Minnesota are 7-3
After playing Minnesota are 6-4
After a win are 7-3
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New York's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New York's last 5 games
New York is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New York's last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Denver is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Denver is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Denver is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Next up:
New York home to Orlando, Sunday, November 29
Denver home to Minnesota, Sunday, November 29
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
The Milwaukee Bucks and the Oklahoma City Thunder will both be gunning for a victory on Friday when they meet at Ford Center.
Luke Ridnour put up 23 points, 10 assists, and seven boards off the bench to lead Milwaukee in its 102-99 overtime loss to New Orleans on Wednesday night.
New Orleans covered as 2.5-point home favorites, while the teams played UNDER the 201.5-point total set by oddsmakers.
Kevin Durant had 28 points to go along with eight assists to lead the Thunder past the Jazz 104-94 on Tuesday night.
Oklahoma City cashed as 8-point road underdogs, while the teams played OVER the 197-point total listed by sportsbooks.
Current streak:
Milwaukee has lost 2 straight games.
Team records:
Milwaukee: 8-5 SU, 8-5 ATS
Oklahoma City: 8-7 SU, 9-6 ATS
Milwaukee most recently:
When playing on Friday are 5-5
Before playing Orlando are 3-7
After playing New Orleans are 4-6
After a loss are 5-5
Oklahoma City most recently:
When playing on Friday are 1-9
Before playing Houston are 1-9
After playing Utah are 5-5
After a win are 2-8
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Milwaukee's last 8 games
Milwaukee is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Milwaukee's last 10 games when playing on the road against Oklahoma City
Milwaukee is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games
Oklahoma City is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
Oklahoma City is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Oklahoma City's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Oklahoma City's last 18 games at home
Next up:
Milwaukee home to Orlando, Saturday, November 28
Oklahoma City home to Houston, Sunday, November 29
Phoenix Suns vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
The Phoenix Suns and the Minnesota Timberwolves will both be gunning for a victory on Friday when they meet at Target Center.
Amare Stoudemire dropped a game-high 28 points as the Suns ran past the Grizzlies 126-111 on Wednesday. The Suns covered the 10.5-point spread, while the 237 points sailed OVER the posted total of 220.
Jason Richardson added 20 points for the Suns, while Steve Nash dished out 16 assists in the win.
Corey Brewer went for 22 points and 13 boards for Minnesota in its 124-111 loss to Denver on Wednesday night.
Denver covered as 8.5-point road favorites, while the teams played OVER the 203-point total posted by oddsmakers.
Current streak:
Phoenix has won 2 straight games.
Minnesota has lost 14 straight games.
Team records:
Phoenix: 12-3 SU, 10-5 ATS
Minnesota: 1-14 SU, 4-10-1 ATS
Phoenix most recently:
When playing on Friday are 8-2
Before playing Toronto are 5-5
After playing Memphis are 6-4
After a win are 7-3
Minnesota most recently:
When playing on Friday are 2-8
Before playing Denver are 3-7
After playing Denver are 3-7
After a loss are 0-10
A few trends to consider:
Phoenix is 15-3 SU in its last 18 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Phoenix's last 5 games
Phoenix is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Phoenix's last 16 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Minnesota's last 12 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Minnesota's last 16 games when playing at home against Phoenix
Minnesota is 16-8 SU in its last 24 games when playing at home against Phoenix
Next up:
Phoenix at Toronto, Sunday, November 29
Minnesota at Denver, Sunday, November 29
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Portland Trail Blazers
The Memphis Grizzlies and the Portland Trail Blazers will both be gunning for a victory on Friday when they meet at Rose Garden.
The Grizzlies were defeated 126-111 by the Suns last time out as a 10.5-point underdog. The 237 points sailed OVER the posted total of 220.
Zach Randolph poured in a double-double with 24 points and 13 rebounds for the Grizzlies.
Five players reached double-figure scoring as the Trail Blazers defeated the Nets 93-83 on Wednesday. The Blazers failed to cover the 14-point spread, while the teams played UNDER the night's posted total of 181.
Greg Oden led the Blazers with 18 points and eight rebounds, while Brandon Roy added 13 points in that win.
Current streak:
Portland has won 3 straight games.
Team records:
Memphis: 5-10 SU, 7-8 ATS
Portland: 12-5 SU, 10-7 ATS
Memphis most recently:
When playing on Friday are 4-6
Before playing LA Clippers are 4-6
After playing Phoenix are 4-6
After a loss are 4-6
Portland most recently:
When playing on Friday are 8-2
Before playing Utah are 7-3
After playing New Jersey are 2-8
After a win are 7-3
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Memphis's last 5 games when playing on the road against Portland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Memphis's last 6 games when playing Portland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Memphis's last 5 games
Memphis is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Portland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Portland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Memphis
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Portland's last 5 games when playing at home against Memphis
Portland is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games
Next up:
Memphis at LA Clippers, Sunday, November 29
Portland at Utah, Saturday, November 28
New Jersey Nets vs. Sacramento Kings
The fans at ARCO Arena will be treated to a game between the New Jersey Nets and the Sacramento Kings when they take their seats on Friday.
Brook Lopez netted a game-high 32 points and completed a double-double with 14 rebounds in the Nets' 93-83 loss to the Trail Blazers last time out, as 14-point underdogs. The teams played UNDER the night's posted total of 181.
The Kings handed New York a third straight loss by defeating the Knicks 111-97 on Wednesday. The Kings were defeated as 4.5-point underdogs, while the combined score made it fell UNDER the posted total of 215.5.
Donte Greene led the Kings with 24 points, four rebounds, and five assists. Tyreke Evans collected a double-double with 19 points and 11 rebounds in the win.
Current streak:
New Jersey has lost 15 straight games.
Team records:
New Jersey: 0-15 SU, 5-9-1 ATS
Sacramento: 6-8 SU, 9-5 ATS
New Jersey most recently:
When playing on Friday are 5-5
Before playing LA Lakers are 6-4
After playing Portland are 3-7
After a loss are 0-10
Sacramento most recently:
When playing on Friday are 5-5
Before playing New Orleans are 5-5
After playing New York are 3-7
After a win are 3-7
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Jersey's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Jersey's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 9 of New Jersey's last 10 games when playing on the road against Sacramento
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Jersey's last 5 games when playing Sacramento
Sacramento is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against New Jersey
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Sacramento's last 10 games when playing at home against New Jersey
Sacramento is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Sacramento is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Next up:
New Jersey at LA Lakers, Sunday, November 29
Sacramento home to New Orleans, Sunday, November 29
NBA RoundUp for 11/27
by Dan Bebe
I sincerely hope everyone had a wonderful Thanksgiving, and today, it's back to the betting grind. Of course, yesterday had some betting mixed in with the turkey, stuffing, and whatever else we could jam into our bellies, and everything went quite well.
I'm anxious to see how a lot of teams play heading into this weekend, since I think we can take some information from this huge upcoming Friday card and apply it to games coming up. Unfortunately, the games tonight are going to be more interesting for how they impact future matchups than for the excitement of the game itself. Let's get down to business.
Sports Wagering
Sixers/Hawks - This line is OFF, presumably until we get some word on Brand. Atlanta got spanked at home last night by the Orlando Magic, and now has to head to Philly to play a subpar Sixers team. The Hawks have come back to Earth a bit after a wildly hot start, losing 3 straight against the spread after winning 6 straight ATS. Normally, teams in this spot are good fade candidates, but I think the Hawks are going to be in the mindset to make a statement after getting creamed at home by a better team. They will want to roll into Philly and make sure the world knows they're a good team. Philadelphia, meanwhile, dealt the Celtics another ATS loss, but lost the game, and have lost 4 straight SU, but have actually covered in their last 3. I expect the Sixers to open as dogs in this one, but the Hawks loss to the Magic might give us a little value with Atlanta, since the public rarely likes the back a team that just cost them money the previous night. Let's wait and see where this line opens up, and take it from there. I am quite curious where we'll see the total open, too.
Heat/Wizards - Another line OFF. Very annoying, and it won't be the last. The Heat host Washington in this one, Miami coming off that very strange last-second win over the Magic in Orlando. Orlando bounced back just fine from that loss, but I wonder about the Heat. They seemed to catch the Magic on a night when Orlando was asleep for long stretches of the game, and I'm not sure the Heat are even close to as competent as they appeared in that ESPN game. The Wizards are definitely not competent, just barely edging a troubled, injured Sixers club at home after a dismal road trip through a few tough towns. This is a game with slightly more value in the Wizards, but unless we're getting a goodly number of points for Washington, I'm not sure I can trust them. The total might be more interesting, given that Miami's defense has suddenly dropped off precipitously, and Washington will look to push the total higher than Miami wants. I might go Over the total if we can get a number near 190, but we just have to wait and see.
Bobcats/Cavs - Charlotte is getting 4.5 points at home with a total of 186. I feel this total is pretty accurate. Cleveland has been playing some higher-scoring games, but Charlotte still has all kinds of issues scoring on offense when they're not forcing turnovers, and they still prefer to take 22 of the 24 second shot-clock to get a shot off. Charlotte is a decent home team, as they're coming off a dismantling of the Toronto Raptors, and while they're 0-7 on the road, they are 5-2 at home. The Bobcats have actually won 2 straight home games by wide margins, which means this 4.5-point home dog line is that much more impressive. I highly suggest we take a look at how the money comes in on this one before making any sort of move. The Cavs are 11-4 on the season now, but only 7-8 ATS, so they haven't really been covering as a favorite. Still, they've won 3 straight games, and after opening the season with 2 losses, Cleveland is 11-2; not bad at all. One thing to note is that Cleveland has another game on Saturday, at home against the Dallas Mavericks, so there is the potential prospect of a little looking ahead. The Bobcats solid play at home seems to counterbalance the Cavaliers' decent all-around play, and like I noted above, this one is a waiting spot.
Celtics/Raptors - The Celtics are favored by 10.5 at home to the Raptors with a total of 204. I don't know if the giant Thanksgiving meal is just leaving my head confused and spinning, but the lines for tomorrow look all kinds of crazy, but not crazy in "I see value" sense, more in the "what the heck is going to happen tomorrow" sense. The Celtics, for instance, are 11-4 SU, but 5-10 ATS. They are just an awful big favorite to bet on lately, as they've lost their last 6 games ATS, all as pretty sizable favorites. And here we are again. Surely, the Celtics will snap out of this "winning by not that much" stretch, but when? The Raptors might be just what the doctor ordered. Toronto has been downright horrible on the road where they are 2-7 SU and 3-6 ATS. The Raptors are -8.7 points to their opponents on the road, where they give up an average of almost 112 points. Yikes! I'm not sure I can trust either team on the side, given the numbers just stated, but the Over sure looks like a possibility. If Toronto is truly giving up 112 points, then we can safely assume the Celtics will break 100. Can Toronto score enough to get this thing Over? I'm not positive. They're coming off their poorest shooting night of the season in Charlotte, and the last time they shot under 40% in one game, they came back and shot 56% the next night. Weak lean to the Over.
Thunder/Bucks - Thunder are laying 5 with a total of 197.5. Very intriguing line, here. The Thunder have been mostly trading off ATS wins and losses so far this year, but are finally starting to get some favorite lines, and they're 2-2 ATS as a favorite. They're coming off a road win at Utah, which is a nice accomplishment for a young team. They've also shown very small home/road splits, which makes the home court advantage a little less interesting here. Milwaukee, meanwhile, is smack in the middle of a harrowing road trip that has taken them through Memphis, San Antonio, New Orleans, and concludes tonight in OKC. That being said, the Bucks HOST the Orlando Magic tomorrow, which means the Thunder are in a nice spot to capitalize on a road-weary club that might be looking ahead to getting home and trying to stack up against one of the East's elite clubs. The Bucks, too, have been a pretty sad road team, posting just a 2-4 record away from home, and a 6-1 mark in Milwaukee. I think the Thunder have a nice shot to blow this one open and win by close to 10. I also think this total is pretty close to accurate. The Bucks defense on the road has been a little lackluster on their current trip, and the Thunder don't play all that quick. I would lean slightly to the Under just given Milwaukee's look-ahead spot perhaps dropping them in a 85-90-point window, but again, the stronger lean here is to the Thunder.
Pacers/Mavericks - This line is OFF, so here are some notes on both teams. The Pacers, first, are coming off a nice 13-point home win over the Clippers to snap a 4-game losing streak. More impressively, they did it without Danny Granger. I'm not sure they can conquer a really good team like Dallas without Granger, and that is likely why we'll have to wait until tomorrow to get a line on this one. The Pacers didn't shoot the ball particularly well, so it wasn't exactly a pretty win, and for that reason I'm not ready to start backing this team again. Dallas appeared to be pretty upset about that 8-point loss to Golden State 2 games back, and they took their anger out on Houston with a 31-point drubbing on the road. The Mavs shot over 60% for the game for the second time this year in a situation where I'm not sure they could have been slowed down if 8 or 9 guys were trying to defend them. The Mavs, at 11-4, lead their division, and at 6-2 ATS on the road, have been a bettor's best buddy. I expect Dallas to open as a small favorite, perhaps in the 3-5 range, and we'll have to take a long look at it. I think we'll see a total over 200, and I might be so inclined to play the Under given Indy's recent shooting woes.
Pistons/Clippers - Compelling game, I know. No line yet. Still, we have work to do to get ourselves in game shape on this one. The Pistons have lost 6 straight games, and it appears as though a tougher schedule and the losses of Rip Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince are finally starting to catch up with this team. Of course, it didn't help that Ben Gordon hurt himself in the last game, cutting this team's offense, literally, to just Charlie Villanueva. You can try to convince me that Will Bynum and Rodney Stuckey are viable options, but it'll take way longer than the time we have between now and when this game tips. The Pistons did manage to cover in 2 of those 6 losses, but 2-4 ATS is still pretty darn bad when you consider how many points they've been getting. Today, I expect Detroit to be the favorite, and amazingly, as a favorite, Detroit is 3-1 ATS. They are significantly better at home than on the road (3-3 vs. 2-7), but they just simply don't have the firepower to beat anyone if 3 of their best guys are sidelined. I assume this line is off because Ben Gordon might play (ankle sprain), and if he does, Detroit might be a nice option. The Clippers got truly embarrassed in Indiana by the Granger-less Pacers to start their current road trip, shooting 32% in the contest and being held to 73 points by one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA. That being said, the moment I think I've got the Clips figured out, they storm out of the gate to an early 14-point lead, and ruin my plans. I think we'll see Detroit open as a favorite of about 3-4 points, and I expect a total in the 180's.
Rockets/Spurs - The Rockets are 1-point favorites at home to San Antonio with a total of 199. This is a very interesting game, to me. Houston has alternated SU wins and losses ALL MONTH, a span of, now, 12 games. Thus, they are 6-6 in November, 8-7 overall, and 9-6 ATS. Still, as that trend dictates, the Rockets are due for a SU win, and as a 1-point favorite, that also means they're likely in line for an ATS victory. Of course, it's nuts to wager on that trend alone. The real reasoning on this one lies mostly in the play of the Spurs. San Antonio seems to be starting to put the pieces together, winning 3 consecutive games SU and ATS. However, let's not get carried away. All of those wins have come on their home floor, where the Spurs are 7-2. They're a miserable 0-4 on the road, and have just not been able to make shots outside of whatever they call their building these days. The home/road splits have been pretty ridiculous. At home, the Spurs have a final margin of +10.2; on the road, -9.5. The nearly 20-point swing is just a hair larger than the 6-8 points that books usually move a line depending on which building it's being played in. I'm a little concerned that San Antonio is starting to figure out how to play together, but home wins over Washington, Milwaukee and Golden State are hardly games to completely change your opinion of a team. Strong lean to Houston. Weak lean the Under, since the Spurs clearly can't score on the road.
Nuggets/Knicks - Denver by 13.5 at home with a total of 218.5. I have to say, I don't care about the spread in this one, I just can't trust the Knicks right now. New York has looked AWFUL, and I mean that with a capital entire-word. They've shot under 40% against two teams with relatively uninspiring defenses (Lakers, Kings), and now they have to rise to a mile above sea level to take on another high-octane club that has no qualms about blowing teams out. The Nuggets have won 3 consecutive games SU and ATS, and have taken all 3 by double digits. They really know how to play in Denver, too, as they are a perfect 6-0 at home this year with an average victory margin of 16! That right there should almost be enough proof to take Denver. I really don't see this line moving up, though, and I'd advise waiting to see what happens. Sharps will usually just grab at a dog with a line this high, and I think we'll see the line drop to 13 at some point, and we can potentially look at it then. I also like the Under in this one, since I don't see the Knicks waking up any time soon.
Timberwolves/Suns - Minnesota is getting 9.5 points at home to the run n' gun Suns with a total of 214.5. I'll be up front when I say I'm not a huge fan of this game. I think the Suns line is wildly inflated, much like the Denver line above, but I have a tough time trusting Phoenix on the road when we're talking about a team that just doesn't play defense. Phoenix has been a road favorite 4 times this season, and is 2-2 ATS. But, looking more closely, they were a road favorite of just 2 points in the 2 road ATS wins. When they were favored by 8 at New Orleans, they lost that game outright. I don't think the Timberwolves win this game, but catching 9.5 points at home is an awful lot of points. The Wolves are just bad enough that I wouldn't even take them with this many points at home, and instead I look to the total for some kind of value. Phoenix always looks to push the tempo, but they tend to score a good 10 points more in home games as opposed to road contests. Phoenix averages just 106 away from home, and while the Wolves play some shoddy defense and that final Phoenix number should eclipse 110, I'm not sure I see the Wolves keeping up. Like I noted earlier, this game scares the hell out of me. No leans.
Trailblazers/Grizzlies - Portland laying 11.5 at home with a total of 194.5. Another huge line. It's almost amazing how many uninteresting games we've had over the last few days, but we make do with what we can. Portland is a beast of a team. They failed to cover against the Nets in their last one, but still won by double digits, a feat the Blazers have accomplished in all 3 of the games on their current homestand. Once again, though, we need Portland to do better than just double digits. We need 12 points for a cover in this one against a Memphis team that is definitely showing signs of improvement. The Grizzlies are just 5-10 on the season, but 7-8 ATS, and have won 4 of 6. They are, like most young teams, much better at home. Memphis is 1-7 on the road, which certainly gives Grizzlies-backers pause in this one. Sure, they're collecting 11.5 points, but will it matter? Memphis was getting 10.5 points in their last game, at Phoenix, and lost by 15. Phoenix shot 60% in that one, which Portland likely will not do, but Portland's defense is such that I trust them to build a lead and hang onto it. Very slight lean to the big favorite here. The total looks spot on, with Memphis trying to push the tempo, and doing a nice job of scoring lately, while Portland probably will try to keep the young, quick Grizzlies from getting out and running.
Kings/Nets - Sacramento by 5 at home with a total of 194. This is a funny line -- the side is decidedly in the Kings favor, with Sacramento now a favorite in two straight games, the only two games they've been a favorite in all season long. But while the side favors the Kings, the total seems to favor the Nets extremely slow tempo. Perhaps I'm misreading it. It could be that oddsmakers just don't think New Jersey will break 90 points yet again, and that's quite possible. I'm actually surprised the red-hot Kings aren't favored by more than 5, and I'm concerned oddsmakers think this is the game the Nets get their first win. Only getting 5 points on the road seems like a pretty rough spot for Jersey, and that definitely gives me pause. My initial lean is strong to the Kings, but I think the prudent move is to see where this line moves, determine why, then react. Sacramento can certainly score at home, but the Nets 2-13 O/U record should make anyone think twice before betting an Over. I lean to the Under here, until Jersey shows they can break 90 points.