Friday's Best NBA Bets
Miami Heat at New York Knicks (5, 209)
This one was almost a showdown between two teams on a combined 19-game winning streak. The Heat have won 10 in a row and the Knicks were seconds away from beating Boston on Wednesday night in MSG and earning their ninth straight W.
Instead, Paul Pierce broke a tie game on a jumper with 0.4 second remaining. Amar'e Stoudemire responded with a three-pointer from the top of the key that would have won the game, but it came after the buzzer. While the Knicks (and the Heat, for that matter) have been beating up on relative puffcakes, they were not about to call it a moral victory against the Eastern Conference's elite.
"Tough loss; tough shot," said Raymond Felton. "I'd rather lose by 15 points than like this. I am mad. I hate to lose."
Two days after getting a shot at the team with the best record in the conference, New York gets a crack at one of the hottest teams in basketball. The Heat almost became the fourth team in NBA history to win 10 games in a row all by double-digits. They won their 10th on Wednesday, however, by just six points over Cleveland.
Now Miami is focused on the Knicks, who would be the team's biggest scalp in its last 11 outings.
"It'll be a great environment; one of those games that you love to play in, those moments that you look forward to," said Dwyane Wade. "And when Friday comes I think we'll all be excited."
Pick: Knicks +5
Utah Jazz at New Orleans Hornets (1, 189)
The Jazz are in the midst of a rare three-day break from games as they head into a four-game road trip, starting on Friday in New Orleans. Mehmet Okur, who has been out since undergoing Achilles' surgery in April, is going to make the trip but may not play at all (he definitely won't against the Hornets).
Utah will, however, see the return of Raja Bell. The veteran guard has missed the past three games with an adductor strain and he is a game-time decision for Friday. "I'm treating it like I'm gonna play," Bell said.
The last time the Jazz went on a four-game road trek, they won all four games in dramatic come-from-behind fashion.
"That first game is going to be really important," said star guard Deron Williams. "Sometimes how you play in that first game can dictate how the rest of the trip goes."
"Ya, that New Orleans game, they're going to try and come at us because we already won the first game against them," added center Al Jefferson. "So that's the one that's going to be the big win, because like D-Will said, it's going to set the tone for the rest of them."
Utah drubbed the Hornets 105-87 at home on Nov. 24. Williams scored 26 points and Jefferson chipped in 23 to go along with 10 rebounds.
Pick: Jazz
NBA Betting Preview: Mavericks end homestand versus Suns
By: Michael Robinson
The Dallas Mavericks look to put an exclamation point on a successful six-game homestand when they welcome the Phoenix Suns on Friday night.
Dallas is 20-5 straight-up (14-9-2 against the spread), the franchise’s second-best start after going 22-3 in 2002-2003. That team got bounced in the conference finals (San Antonio), but the Mavericks have designs on their first NBA crown this time around.
The Mavericks’ last game was a 103-98 win over Portland on Wednesday. They had a 17-point lead midway through the third quarter, but allowed the Trail Blazers to tie it late in the fourth and eventually ‘cover’ the 6 ½-point spread.
Owner Mark Cuban has seen his team lose huge leads the last three games. The only defeat though was 103-99 to Milwaukee on Monday. That ended the Mavericks’ much publicized 12-game winning streak. They’re 4-1 SU, but 2-3 ATS during this homestand.
Defense has been a key to Dallas’ strong start. The 93.2 PPG allowed is sixth in the NBA and six PPG better than last year (99.3 PPG). Coach Rick Carlisle is using a lot of zone, which may not work in the playoffs when teams constantly adjust, but it’s effective now.
Center Tyson Chandler has been a big addition defensively. The rotation has a solid eight to nine guys, with Dirk Nowitzki (25 PPG) the only player scoring more than 15.8 PPG. Dallas’ 98.9 PPG is middle-of-the-pack overall, but good enough to win with the tight ‘D.’
The ‘under’ started 12-7 for Dallas, but the ‘over’ is now 6-0 in the last six. Scoring (102.8 PPG) and points allowed (98.3 PPG) during that span have been above season averages. Dallas is 12-4 SU and 6-8-2 ATS at home, compared to 8-1 SU and ATS away.
Phoenix (12-12 SU, 9-14-1 ATS) was expected to take a step back with the loss of big man Amare Stoudemire. He took his 23.1 PPG and 8.9 RPG to the Big Apple via free agency, transforming a team that made the conference finals into a fringe playoff squad.
The Suns have at least compensated for Stoudemire’s scoring. Their 109 PPG leads the league again and is just slightly below last year (110.2 PPG). However, the league’s 26th ranked defense last year (105.3 PPG) is now dead-last at 110 PPG.
Phoenix got a 128-122 home win over Minnesota as 9 ½-point favorites on Wednesday. That snapped a three-game losing streak in which the offense didn’t even break 100 points. The Suns are now 0-4 ATS in their last four games.
Center Robin Lopez (knee injury) returned against Minnesota and had 12 points and eight rebounds in 24 minutes. He had been out since Nov. 14. The seven-foot Lopez has great size and is important as a defensive presence, although it didn’t show in that game.
The Suns will continue this tough three-game road set with Oklahoma City and San Antonio. They’re 5-7 SU (5-6-1 ATS) away overall and 2-5 SU (2-4-1 ATS) in the last seven.
The home team has won the last four games (3-1 ATS) between Dallas and Phoenix. Phoenix is 1-3-1 ATS in the last five overall in Dallas.
Neither team is reporting any significant injuries. Tip-off from American Airlines Center is 6:30 p.m. (PT) and will be broadcast on ESPN right after Miami at New York. The Heat have won 10 straight and LeBron James makes his first appearance in New York since spurning the team in free agency.
Inside the Paint - Friday
By Chris David
10, 9, 8, 76ers……..
Break up the 76ers! Okay, Philadelphia (10-15 straight up, 17-8 against the spread) is five games below .500 but the club is on a serious roll at the betting counter. The 76ers have gone 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games and that includes of run of 10 consecutive covers. Doug Collins team has posted an 8-5 SU record through this march, and four of the losses were by single digits. Outside of a 16-point loss (90-106) loss at Toronto on Thanksgiving Eve, the team has played great basketball.
Philadelphia is coming off a double-digit win over the L.A. Clippers (105-91) on Wednesday, improving the team’s record to 8-5 SU and 10-3 ATS at Wells Fargo Center. On Friday, the 76ers will be tested when the L.A. Lakers (19-7 SU, 12-14 ATS) come to town. The Purple and Gold haven’t been as dominant on the road (9-5 SU, 7-7 ATS) but they do bring a three-game winning streak into tonight’s matchup.
The Lakers have gone 8-2 SU and 4-6 ATS versus Eastern Conference opponents. Phil Jackson’s team opened as five-point road favorites and they’ve gone 7-6 ATS when laying the ‘chalk’ outside of the Staples Center. Center Andrew Bynum has played in the last two games for L.A. and the team covered both despite his combined 10 points.
TV Tilts
ESPN will provide a double-header on Friday with a pair of conference clashes. The action starts at 7:00 p.m. EST from New York and finishes up in Dallas at 9:30 p.m. EST.
Miami (19-8 SU, 12-14 ATS) at New York (16-10 SU, 18-8 ATS):
Phoenix (12-12 SU, 9-14 ATS) at Dallas (20-5 SU, 15-9 ATS):
Head-to-Head Domination
New Jersey at Toronto: The Raptors have won five straight (3-1-1 ATS) against the Nets and four of the wins came by double digits. Two of the losses during this span came at Air Canada Centre and both those contests went ‘over’ the number.
Utah at New Orleans: Jerry Sloan’s club has won and covered four straight against New Orleans and eight of the last nine. On Nov. 24, the Jazz blasted the Hornets by 18 points (105-87) in Salt Lake City.
Sacramento at Oklahoma City: The Thunder has taken five of the last six against the Kings, but they’ve only covered three of those affairs.
Memphis at Houston: The Grizzlies have been a hot team lately, winning and covering four straight, but that could end tonight. Houston has won six in a row against Memphis, going 5-1 ATS during this span and all of the victories were by 10 or more. The ‘under’ has gone 4-2 during the Rockets domination.
Minnesota at Portland: The Trail Blazers have won 12 in a row over the Timberwolves, and to add insult to injury, they’ve covered 10 of those games too. Last season, the four regular season meetings weren’t close as Portland won by 23, 23, 28 and 19.
Worth a Wager?
Cleveland
L.A. Clippers
vegasinsider.com
NBA RoundUp for 12/17
by Dan Bebe
New Jersey Nets @ Toronto Raptors with a total of N/A
I'm quite curious about the line on this one. The Raptors have actually shot the ball pretty well at home, but they've looked positively anemic offensively without Andrea Bargnani, and there's no telling how long he'll be out. This is a back-to-back for the Nets, so one might look to fade a team in a fatigue spot, but I'm not sure I can get on board. The Raptors are not only suffering a tad offensively without Bargnani, it seems like the losses of Evans, Bargnani and Calderon are taking a toll on the defensive end. That surprised me. I didn't really see those guys as defensive powerhouses, but the last 4 straight opponents have shot over 50% against the Raptors, and it's awfully tough to win, and in this case, cover as a favorite, when the opposition is making more shots than they miss. Of course, the opposite seems to be the case for Jersey, as they are basically finding ways to shoot 40% or lower, against both good and bad defensive teams. So, which is going to give? I suppose when it comes down to weakness against weakness, I would give the nod to the home court and the rested team. Small lean to TORONTO (line depending) and the UNDER.
Miami Heat (-4.5) @ New York Knicks with a total of 209
Some big games for the Knicks lately, eh? If we've learned anything, those Knicks can score. Felton has come along quickly, Amar'e is "stat", and guys like Wilson Chandler, Landry Fields, Toney Douglass and Danilo Gallinari are all doing their parts, as well. The Knicks are a fun team to watch. The Heat are on a roll of their own, and head into New York on the heels of a little bit of a letdown game against the Cavaliers. This line is a point higher than the number Boston was laying, which makes me think that the results should be close to the same. I don't see how Miami's weak interior defense is going to be able to do anything to stop Amar'e that Boston didn't try. The Heat are going to be able to put more pressure on the Knicks wings and potentially draw more fouls, but as long as Amar'e stays on the floor, I just can't see New York getting pushed too far behind, at home. I said it two days ago, and I'll say it again here, I would not be at all surprised to see this game come right down to the wire. Maybe not a buzzer-beater, like with Boston, but free throws and a couple points down the stretch are not far-fetched. With that in mind, and because I believe teams can "get up" for a few games in a row, I lean KNICKS again, and the jumbo-size total makes me think Knicks tempo, and OVER.
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Indiana Pacers (-9) with a total of 196
As Danny Granger goes, so go the Pacers. Granger missed some time, played hurt, and the Pacers have been getting spanked. Will he be back to his normal self for this one? Tough to say, but I know for darn sure that laying nearly double digits needs exploring before any sort of motion is taken. This is also the 3rd meeting between these two teams already this season, which is a great spot for those of us that love to watch games and study results. The first meeting occurred on November 13th in Cleveland, where the rested Cavs were a 1.5-point favorite, and the Pacers won by 14. The next meeting was just 10 days later in Indiana, and once again the Pacers were the "fatigue" team, laying 5 points at home in a game they won by 11. Now, with both teams rested, the line is at 9, a second adjustment to this power ranking. How much of an adjustment is too much? How far does this line need to go to be a value back on the Cleveland side? I happen to think the Cavs competing with the Heat for the full 48 minutes is going to get them going a little bit, and we might very well see an upset. Indiana is in a slump, and if Cleveland is even pondering come out of their funk, we could be seeing 3-4 points of value nightly on Byron Scott's bunch. Lean to CLEVELAND and the OVER.
Los Angeles Lakers (-5) @ Philadelphia 76ers with a total of 196
Philly has been playing truly spectacular defense, and that has led to the team covering 10 straight games. The Lakers, after a rough stretch, seem to have been reinvigorated by the return of Andrew Bynum, and they've powered out to giant leads in their last 3 games, only to have the bench let the opposition climb back into "near backdoor" range. Still, the Lakers prowess is always there, and this is absolutely one of those games I wouldn't touch a side with a 10-foot pole. You've got the Lakers, clearly turning a corner and starting to function offensively once again, and you've got the Sixers, who are outperforming the line every night, and have been especially successful at home. At 17-7 ATS on the year, Philly has quietly become one of the best wagers in sports...but not tonight. PASS on the side, and OVER lean on the total, since the Lakers are ramping that offense back up, and I think Philly can come close to matching.
Los Angeles Clippers @ Detroit Pistons (-3) with a total of 189.5
As we move into the middle parts of the season, almost every game is going to be a balancing act. Scheduling angles, motivational, revenge, line movement, power ranking adjustments...the list goes on and on. Here, we have a few to weigh. First is revenge - the Clippers lost to Detroit in Los Angeles in overtime. The Pistons looked decent on that road trip, and both teams have fluctuated a tad since. Second is power ranking notes. The Pistons were considered 1.5-point superior to the Clippers in that game, and covered, and now here are concerned LA's equal. Have the Clippers improved 1.5 points, has Detroit fallen 1.5, or somewhere in between? And what about the fact that Detroit is 6-6 at home SU, and the Clippers are a perfectly miserable 0-11 on the road? The Clippers do have one guy that can shoot near 50% in every game, and that generally keeps them somewhat close, but Detroit can knock down the 3-ball, especially at home, and should probably have beaten Toronto, too, if the Raptors didn't shoot a ridiculous 63% from the field. I know there's revenge, but too many of the Clips stink too much to back them on the road yet. Lean to PISTONS and the UNDER.
Charlotte Bobcats @ Atlanta Hawks with a total of N/A
I'll make my point right up front in this one - I'm not backing Charlotte on the road until they show any signs of life. They have failed to cover the last 6 straight road games, including blowout defeats at the hands of the Grizzlies, Sixers and Hornets, and slightly closer losses to the Pacers, Bucks and Knicks. This is a little bit of a potential letdown spot for the Hawks, but they've played alright in most of their back-to-back spots, and have actually had quite a few this year. This one might be tougher, given the Atlanta injury situation (Crawford, Johnson, etc.), but like I said in the first sentence, the Bobcats are so terrible on the road, I can't put money behind them. I'll be curious to see where this line opens with Atlanta playing the b2b. Considering Charlotte was an 8.5-point dog in Memphis when the Bobcats were playing the b2b, and I have Atlanta as a shade better than Memphis, I wouldn't be surprised to see this one in the 7-point range. I suppose the balancing act with this one is Charlotte's road woes against the Atlanta letdown off a game in Boston that was talked about as a regular season "playoff" game for the Hawks. Tough call - let's see the line, but my gut reaction is tiny lean to ATLANTA (but prefer the PASS) and the UNDER.
Sacramento Kings @ Oklahoma City Thunder (-11.5) with a total of 205
Sacramento had one bullet to fire on their current road trip, and they fired it in New Orleans. Of course, it didn't quite lodge itself. The Kings got out to a huge lead down in Nawlins, only to see the Hornets come roaring back on the shoulders of the recently-injured, and recently dog-housed Marcus Thornton. Now, Sacramento heads to visit the Thunder, a team not currently experiencing the type of offensive malaise that the Hornets were, and we all saw what happens to the Kings when they face a team that can shoot - they get smashed. The Kings have lost by some huge margins this year, and the Thunder have actually covered 4 in a row while scoring quite a bit. I know 11.5 is a big number, but it's only 2 points more than Sacramento got in Houston, and the Thunder are at least 3 points better than the Rockets, so I might even argue there's a tiny hair of value with a team laying 11.5. It feels weird, I know, but the Kings are truly awful. Evans returning early was a shot in the arm, but force him to hit a jumper, and the Kings go stagnant. Lean to the THUNDER and the UNDER, but the total is pretty close to spot on.
Utah Jazz (-1) @ New Orleans Hornets with a total of 189
This total screams New Orleans, doesn't it? This total isn't anything out of the ordinary for a Hornets game, but considering the total was only 1.5 points lower against the defensive-minded Heat or the offensively-inept Kings, this one means more, in my opinion. Plus, toss atop that little tidbit the fact that this is Utah's 2nd total all season in the 180's. Oddsmakers aren't stupid, and they know that the Hornets are going to try desperately to keep Utah in a slower, uglier game, and the fact that this number is so low certainly speaks to the idea that the Hornets might have some success with it. And perhaps more important than all that other "total reading"...since I know many are skeptical of its powers, the Hornets, for the first time in probably 3-4 weeks, have momentum. I know it was just a win over the lowly Kings, but it was a monumental comeback effort, and the type of second half performance, and eye-opening show by Marcus Thornton that can breathe life into a team that was playing some impotent basketball. I happen to think this one stays close until the end, and I believe Thornton and Paul make a few key plays for a narrow Hornets win. It's also a revenge game from a blowout loss in Utah on November 24th. Lean to HORNETS and the UNDER.
Memphis Grizzlies @ Houston Rockets (-4) with a total of 203
Say what you want about big paragraphs in my blogs, but this game isn't going to be one of them. I love what the Grizzlies are starting to do on defense, but for whatever reason, playing the Rockets is like drugging the entire team. Memphis got spanked by Houston at home earlier this year, got swept last year, and the fun just continues. Memphis is playing its best basketball of the season right now, though, so perhaps this is the first time to be cautious, and Houston just got the news that Yao might just be done for his career. How will they react to the idea that they're without the big man, possibly forever? Houston is shooting the ball extremely well lately, led largely by the hot hand of Kevin Martin, but the Grizzlies recent dedication to playing defense has catapulted them back (in my opinion) into the top-8 in the West after a very slow start. Still, revenge hasn't seemed to matter in this series in recent history, so until Memphis proves that they've overcome their issues with Shane Battier, I'm not switching it up. After the streak is broken, we can rethink things. Lean to HOUSTON and the UNDER.
Phoenix Suns @ Dallas Mavericks (-7) with a total of 210.5
I hate to say it, since I know I'll get blasted, but I think now is the perfect time to fade the Mavericks. They had their colossal run, crushed many a team, and then finally dropped one to the Bucks. Then, the following game, the line was just inflated. It wasn't like the Mavs played poorly, and they probably will play relatively well again in this one, but when the line is overcooked, the close ones are going to go the other way. Of course, it's quite possible that the Mavs will blow out some teams, but generally, and this applies to all sports, after a team goes on an extended winning streak, they don't usually post a ton of blowouts. This is where we'll get Dallas's "A-minus" game, which means they'll probably win, but it'll be 5 points closer than usual. And as for Phoenix, Jason Richardson started showing signs of life, and that's a key for them to cover against anyone. I'm not completely sold on the Suns, since Steve Nash has admitted his groin injury is hurting his shot, but if J-Rich can knock in a few threes, and Dallas gives a 90% effort, I could see this one, like Portland, being decided by 5. Slight lean to PHOENIX and the OVER.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Portland Trailblazers (-8.5) with a total of 200
We know Minnesota's weakness...teams that play defense. They can generally trade buckets with the offensive-minded teams in the NBA, but when they go against a club that can lock down, rebound, and make them work, Minnesota tends to have issues. This would seem to be one of those spots, potentially, and a pretty low line, all things considered. On the other side, Portland is in a potential sluggish spot, playing their first game back home after a 4-game road trip, but then, looking over Portland's schedule so far this year, they've had 4 road trips of 3 games or more already, and they've covered in 3 of the 4 games immediately thereafter, including one against the lowly Clippers. This is technically a divisional game, so Portland should care a little, and the Blazers have been significantly better at home of late. The square goggles have been strapped on, and I'm leaning PORTLAND and the UNDER.
NBA Betting Preview: Miami Heat at New York Knicks
By: Jeff Mattingly
Miami captured its 10th-straight victory on Wednesday night with a 101-95 home win over the Cleveland Cavaliers and now head on the road to take on the toast of the Big Apple. “It’s always great to play in the Garden, especially with them being as good of a team as they are now,” said guard Dwyane Wade. “A lot of props go to Amare for leading that team that way that he has and the rest of the players for coming in and proving everyone wrong.” The All-Star guard scored 28 points and grabbed a season-high 13 rebounds in helping the team overcome a double-digit deficit last time out. The squad is 7-5 overall on the road, including a 4-2 mark versus Eastern Conference foes. Miami is 0-4 ATS versus the Atlantic Division.
The Heat and Knicks will be meeting for the first of four matchups on Friday night, as Miami hopes to continue its success in the series after last year’s 3-0 sweep. The team has actually won the last five meetings between the two teams, but still trails 37-53 all-time versus the Knicks during regular season contests. Miami has recorded nine wins so far in the month of December, already surpassing last year’s total during the month. During its current winning streak, Miami has outscored the opposition by a 1,015-855 margin.
New York saw its eight-game winning streak snapped in dramatic fashion against the Celtics inside Madison Square Garden and now will host another conference heavyweight on Friday night. “I figure as long as we keep winning and keep having success, that’s what the fans want to see,” forward Amare Stoudemire stated. “So LeBron right now is in Miami and we’re in New York. It’s going to be a battle.” The former Phoenix Suns star finished with 39 points and 10 rebounds in a 118-116 defeat last time out versus Boston. New York is 5-1 ATS versus conference opponents.
The Knicks will be playing the front-end of their ninth of 21 back-to-back sets, posting a 4-4 record in the first game and capturing four sweeps. Danilo Galinari and Wilson Chandler figure to play a big part in tonight’s outcome due to averaging 22.3 and 18 points respectively in last year’s series. Stoudemire will also figure to play a prominent role and will be looking to score at least 30 points in 10 straight contests.
Bettors are likely going to back the Heat due to their 4-0 ATS mark in the series, while the Knicks are 3-1-1 ATS as a home underdog.
NBA Betting Preview: Utah Jazz at New Orleans Hornets
By Jeff Mattingly
Utah embarks on a four-game road trip tonight and is coming off a 108-95 home victory over the Golden State Warriors. The Jazz were led by point guard Deron Williams’ 30-point, 10 assist night, moving the team’s record to 18-8 overall on the season. “He’s been sensational, really,” said head coach Jerry Sloan. “I have to say this is as good as I have ever seen him play. He’s playing terrific basketball.” He also seems to play his best basketball when matched up with New Orleans point guard Chris Paul, dishing out at least 10 assists in 10 of the past 11 meetings. Utah is 7-3 ATS on the road this season.
The Jazz have really dominated this series with a 38-19 all-time mark against the Hornets, including a 16-12 record on the road. Offensively, the club will be striving to reach the 100-point mark, as it’s produced a 13-1 record when doing so. Utah has also been great in highly-contested games and brings in a 5-1 record in contests decided by six points or less. Williams will lead the attack and is searching for his fourth straight game with 30 or more points.
New Orleans ended a three-game losing streak with a 94-91 victory over Sacramento on Wednesday, but it didn’t come easy due to trailing by 23 points in the second half. Guard Marcus Thornton delivered a much-needed boost to the offense, scoring a season-high 19 points. “He didn’t give up,” said point guard Chris Paul. “He knows we’re going to need him and the next game might not call for 25 minutes from him.” Paul managed to contribute 17 points and nine assists in the Hornets 105-87 loss to the Jazz in Salt Lake City on November 24. The team has lost 16 of the last 20 in the series. New Orleans is 7-6 ATS at home this season.
The Hornets really need to get back to playing fundamental defense that led the team to a blistering start, as the unit has given up 96.0 points per game over the last 13 contests. New Orleans opened the first 12 games of the year by giving up 90.4 points a contest on 42.5 percent shooting. The club has dropped nine of its last 13 games and hasn’t scored 100 or more points since November 19.
Bettors will be interested in backing the Jazz due to their 8-3-1 ATS mark as a road favorite of 0.5 to 4.5 points, while the Hornets are 1-9-1 ATS versus the Western Conference.