Inside the Paint - Friday
By Chris David
It's early in the season but the standings are starting to separate the contenders from the pretenders. It's obvious that certain clubs will be making a playoff run, while others look to rebuild. On Friday, five out of the 10 games scheduled have double-digit numbers on the board.
Let's take a closer look at those matchups.
New York at Atlanta (-12)
After starting the season 11-2, the Hawks have gone 2-3 both SU and ATS in their last five games. Atlanta has beaten teams by an average of 12 points (111-99) at home this season, which has helped the club go 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS. Can the Knicks, who are 2-7 SU and 4-5 ATS away from home, pull off the road upset or at the very least keep it close? Atlanta cruised past New York 114-101 on Nov. 11 as a 5 1/2-point road favorite, and the combined 225 points went 'over' the closing number of 207 ½. Atlanta has only been a double-digit favorite once this year and they easily covered the number. The Knicks have been catching 10-plus on four occasions this season and even though they are 0-4 SU, they have gone 3-1 ATS. Also, New York's last three trips to Atlanta all came up short in the “W” column but they only lost by 3, 5 and 6 points. One last note, the Hawks have a possible look-ahead on Saturday with a road trip to Dallas.
Chicago at Cleveland (-12)
Just when folks were starting to question the Cavaliers, they're starting to put things together. Cleveland is fresh off a pair of impressive home victories against Dallas (111-95) and Phoenix (107-90) this week. Can Mike Brown's team stay hot and post another double-digit victory on Friday versus Chicago. The Bulls were happy to get home after their annual Circus Trip and it showed as the team posted a 92-85 win over Detroit on Wednesday. On the road this year, Chicago is 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS, and one of the wins came against Cleveland (86-85) on Nov. 5. The Bulls cashed as 11 1/2-point road underdogs and the combined 171 points never threatened the closing number. Cleveland has gone 2-5 ATS this year when listed as a double-digit favorite, including the aforementioned loss to the Bulls. Total players should note that Chicago has only scored over 100 points once this year, which has helped the 'under' go 11-5.
Minnesota at New Orleans (-10)
Should the Hornets be laying double digits to anybody, especially without point guard Chris Paul? New Orleans has gone 4-4 SU and 6-2 ATS since losing Paul to an ankle injury but the largest margin of victory was by eight points. On another note, all four of the victories did come in the Big Easy. Next to the Nets, the Timberwolves have been the worst team in the league. They recently snapped a 15-game losing streak last Sunday after beating Denver 106-100 as a 14 1/2-point road underdog. Unfortunately, Minnesota lost to Memphis 97-95 in the very next game but it did cover the number (+3), barely. Along with losing, the other constant trend with the Wolves has been the 'under' (12-6) this season. It's hard to gauge the three meetings last season due to the Paul factor but New Orleans did go 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS against Minnesota.
Indiana at Utah (-10)
Indiana will be playing its third game of a four-game road trip on Friday when it faces Utah in Salt Lake City. It hasn't been pretty for the Pacers, who dropped the first two games both SU and ATS to the Warriors (107-126) and Kings (105-110). The Jazz came out of the gates slow but the team is finally starting to turn the corner. Utah has won and covered three in a row at home and all were by double digits. On the year, Utah is 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS at home. Only once did the team win but not cover. We mention that fact because Indiana has covered every game it has won and failed to cover in all its losses. If you think the Pacers have a shot tonight, the money-line might be worth a look, especially at 3/1 odds or better. Utah has won five of the past six meetings against Indiana, going 4-2 ATS during this stretch.
Miami at L.A. Lakers (-11.5)
Miami will be playing its third game in four nights and second in two days when if faces the Lakers on Friday. The Heat have been a solid bet on the road this year, going 4-2 both SU and ATS. It will take a monster effort against Phil Jackson's troops, who have gone 11-2 SU and 7-5 ATS at home this year. Plus, the Lakers have won seven (5-2 ATS) in a row and all seven came by double digits. Even more impressive, they team has busted the century mark in every game, plus nobody has scored over a hundred during this stretch. The home club has won eight of the past 10 meetings in this head-to-head series. The 'under' has gone 7-3 during this stretch. Miami is 1-1 both SU and ATS on zero days rest this season.
Toronto Raptors vs. Washington Wizards
The Toronto Raptors and the Washington Wizards will both be gunning for a victory on Friday when they meet at Verizon Center.
The Raptors were crushed 146-115 by the Hawks last time out as a 9-point underdog. That game's combined score sailed OVER the posted total of 212.
DeMar DeRozan tossed in 23 points in a losing effort.
The Wizards pulled out a hard-fought 104-102 victory over the Bucks on Wednesday. The Wizards failed to cover the 3-point spread, but the combined 206 points made it OVER the posted total of 197.
Gilbert Arenas led the Wizards with 22 points and nine assists, while Nick Young added 21 points in that win.
Current streak:
Toronto has lost 5 straight games.
Washington has won 2 straight games.
Team records:
Toronto: 7-13 SU, 8-12 ATS
Washington: 7-10 SU, 5-12 ATS
Toronto most recently:
When playing on Friday are 4-6
Before playing Chicago are 5-5
After playing Atlanta are 5-5
After a loss are 3-7
Washington most recently:
When playing on Friday are 5-5
Before playing Detroit are 5-5
After playing Milwaukee are 6-4
After a win are 2-8
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Toronto's last 8 games when playing on the road against Washington
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Toronto's last 14 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Washington's last 8 games when playing at home against Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games at home
Washington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Washington's last 14 games when playing Toronto
Next up:
Toronto at Chicago, Saturday, December 5
Washington at Detroit, Sunday, December 6
New York Knicks vs. Atlanta Hawks
The New York Knicks and the Atlanta Hawks will both be trying to pick up a win on Friday when they battle at Philips Arena.
The Knicks fell 118-104 to the Magic on Wednesday as a 12.5-point road underdog. That game's 222 points made it OVER the posted total of 208.5.
Wilson Chandler netted 24 points for the Knicks, and Danilo Gallinari had 20 in the loss.
Nine players reached double-figures as the Hawks flew past the Raptors 146-115 on Wednesday. The Hawks easily covered the 9-point spread, and the combined score sailed OVER the posted total of 212.
Al Horford led the Hawks with 24 points and seven rebounds, while Joe Johnson added 12 points with 11 boards in picking up the double-double in that win.
Team records:
New York: 4-15 SU, 8-11 ATS
Atlanta: 13-5 SU, 13-5 ATS
New York most recently:
When playing on Friday are 3-7
Before playing New Jersey are 2-8
After playing Orlando are 3-7
After a loss are 2-8
Atlanta most recently:
When playing on Friday are 3-7
Before playing Dallas are 3-7
After playing Toronto are 6-4
After a win are 7-3
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New York's last 7 games when playing Atlanta
New York is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 8 of New York's last 11 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New York's last 7 games on the road
Atlanta is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Atlanta's last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Atlanta's last 7 games when playing New York
Atlanta is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against New York
Next up:
New York home to New Jersey, Sunday, December 6
Atlanta at Dallas, Saturday, December 5
Chicago Bulls vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
The division rival Chicago Bulls and Cleveland Cavaliers are set to renew hostilities on Friday when they meet at Quicken Loans Arena.
The Bulls were badly outscored in the fourth quarter, but managed to hang on and defeat the Pistons 92-85 on Wednesday. The Bulls failed to cover the 7-point spread, and the teams played UNDER the posted total of 181.
John Salmons led the way with 22 points, and Derrick Rose added 19 in the win.
Six players reached double figures as the Cavaliers defeated the Suns 107-90 on Wednesday. The Cavaliers covered the 7.5-point spread, while the teams played UNDER the posted total of 212.5.
LeBron James had 12 points with eight rebounds, while dishing out 10 assists.
Current streak:
Cleveland has won 2 straight games.
Team records:
Chicago: 7-9 SU, 5-10-1 ATS
Cleveland: 13-5 SU, 9-9 ATS
Chicago most recently:
When playing on Friday are 9-1
Before playing Toronto are 6-4
After playing Detroit are 3-7
After a win are 3-7
Cleveland most recently:
When playing on Friday are 4-6
Before playing Milwaukee are 9-1
After playing Phoenix are 9-1
After a win are 7-3
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Chicago's last 14 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Chicago's last 9 games on the road
Chicago is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Chicago is 6-19 SU in its last 25 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Cleveland is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Cleveland is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games when playing at home against Chicago
Cleveland is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games when playing at home against Chicago
Next up:
Chicago home to Toronto, Saturday, December 5
Cleveland at Milwaukee, Sunday, December 6
Boston Celtics vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
The Boston Celtics and the Oklahoma City Thunder will both be gunning for a victory on Friday when they meet at Ford Center.
The Celtics were outplayed in the fourth quarter but held on for an 90-83 victory over the Spurs on Thursday. The Celtics won that game as a pick'em, while the combined score went UNDER the posted total of 188.
Kevin Garnett had 20 points with seven rebounds and five assists to lead the Celtics. Ray Allen chipped in with 15 points in the win.
The Thunder dominated the second half and came away with a 115-103 victory over the 76ers on Wednesday. The Thunder covered the 6.5-point spread, while the 218 points sailed OVER the posted total of 195.
Kevin Durant tossed in a game-high 33 points to lead the Thunder, and Jeff Green added 19 in that win.
Current streak:
Boston has won 6 straight games.
Team records:
Boston: 15-4 SU, 9-10 ATS
Oklahoma City: 10-8 SU, 11-7 ATS
Boston most recently:
When playing on Friday are 7-3
Before playing Milwaukee are 5-5
After playing San Antonio are 6-4
After a win are 7-3
Oklahoma City most recently:
When playing on Friday are 3-7
Before playing Golden State are 3-7
After playing Philadelphia are 4-6
After a win are 3-7
A few trends to consider:
Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Oklahoma City
Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Boston is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Boston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Oklahoma City
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Oklahoma City's last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oklahoma City's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Oklahoma City's last 8 games when playing at home against Boston
Oklahoma City is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Next up:
Boston home to Milwaukee, Tuesday, December 8
Oklahoma City home to Golden State, Monday, December 7
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. New Orleans Hornets
The Minnesota Timberwolves and the New Orleans Hornets will both be gunning for a victory on Friday when they meet at New Orleans Arena.
The Timberwolves were defeated 97-95 by the Grizzlies last time out as a 3.5-point underdog. That game's 192 points went UNDER the posted total of 203.
Ryan Gomes led the Timberwolves with 20 points in the loss.
Darren Collison dropped 20 points for the Hornets in their 110-99 loss to the Lakers on Tuesday night.
Los Angeles failed to cover as 14.5-point home favorites, while the game played OVER the 201-point total listed by sportsbooks.
Current streak:
New Orleans has lost 2 straight games.
Team records:
Minnesota: 2-16 SU, 6-11-1 ATS
New Orleans: 7-11 SU, 9-9 ATS
Minnesota most recently:
When playing on Friday are 0-10
Before playing Utah are 1-9
After playing Memphis are 3-7
After a loss are 1-9
New Orleans most recently:
When playing on Friday are 5-5
Before playing Sacramento are 3-7
After playing LA Lakers are 4-6
After a loss are 5-5
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Minnesota's last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 7 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
Minnesota is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
New Orleans is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
New Orleans is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games
Next up:
Minnesota home to Utah, Saturday, December 5
New Orleans home to Sacramento, Tuesday, December 8
Charlotte Bobcats vs. New Jersey Nets
The Charlotte Bobcats and the New Jersey Nets will both be gunning for a victory on Friday when they meet at Izod Center.
Nazr Mohammed scored 16 points off the bench for Charlotte in its 108-90 loss to Boston on Tuesday night.
Boston covered as 4-point road favorites, while the teams played OVER the 179-point total listed by sportsbooks.
The Nets were cut down 117-101 by the Mavericks on Wednesday as a 7-point underdog. That game's 218 points sailed OVER the posted total of 189.
Chris Douglas-Roberts had 24 points in a losing effort.
Current streak:
New Jersey has lost 18 straight games.
Team records:
Charlotte: 7-10 SU, 11-6 ATS
New Jersey: 0-18 SU, 5-12-1 ATS
Charlotte most recently:
When playing on Friday are 6-4
Before playing Philadelphia are 3-7
After playing Boston are 4-6
After a loss are 3-7
New Jersey most recently:
When playing on Friday are 4-6
Before playing New York are 5-5
After playing Dallas are 4-6
After a loss are 0-10
A few trends to consider:
Charlotte is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Charlotte is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Charlotte is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Charlotte's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Jersey's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of New Jersey's last 13 games
New Jersey is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games when playing Charlotte
New Jersey is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Charlotte
Next up:
Charlotte home to Philadelphia, Saturday, December 5
New Jersey at New York, Sunday, December 6
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Detroit Pistons
The Milwaukee Bucks and the Detroit Pistons will both be gunning for a victory on Friday when they meet at The Palace of Auburn Hills.
The Bucks were outlasted 104-102 by the Wizards last time out as a 3-point underdog. The game's combined 206 points made it OVER the posted total of 197.
Luke Ridnour poured in 20 points and grabbed four rebounds for the Bucks.
The Pistons were defeated 92-85 by the Bulls last time out as a 7-point underdog. The teams played UNDER the posted total of 181.
Ben Gordon led the Pistons scorers with a team-high 18 points.
Team records:
Milwaukee: 9-8 SU, 10-7 ATS
Detroit: 6-12 SU, 9-8-1 ATS
Milwaukee most recently:
When playing on Friday are 3-7
Before playing Cleveland are 5-5
After playing Washington are 1-9
After a loss are 5-5
Detroit most recently:
When playing on Friday are 7-3
Before playing Washington are 6-4
After playing Chicago are 5-5
After a loss are 3-7
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Milwaukee's last 21 games when playing Detroit
Milwaukee is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Detroit is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games at home
Detroit is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing Milwaukee
Detroit is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Milwaukee
Next up:
Milwaukee home to Cleveland, Sunday, December 6
Detroit home to Washington, Sunday, December 6
Dallas Mavericks vs. Memphis Grizzlies
The fans at FedExForum will be treated to a game between the Dallas Mavericks and the Memphis Grizzlies when they take their seats on Friday.
Dirk Nowitzki tossed in 24 points with seven rebounds and eight assists in leading the Mavericks to a 117-101 victory over the Nets last time out. The Mavericks covered the 7-point spread, while the 218 points sailed OVER the posted total of 189.
Erick Dampier and Jason Terry each had 18 points for the Mavericks, and Jason Kidd had 16 in that win.
A big third quarter helped to propel the Grizzlies in a hard-fought 97-95 victory over the Timberwolves on Wednesday. The Grizzlies failed to cover the 3.5-point spread, while the 192 points went UNDER the posted total of 203.
Mike Conley, Rudy Gay, and Zach Randolph had 20 points apiece for the Grizzlies in that win.
Current streak:
Dallas has won 2 straight games.
Team records:
Dallas: 14-5 SU, 12-7 ATS
Memphis: 7-12 SU, 8-11 ATS
Dallas most recently:
When playing on Friday are 7-3
Before playing Atlanta are 7-3
After playing New Jersey are 7-3
After a win are 7-3
Memphis most recently:
When playing on Friday are 4-6
Before playing Cleveland are 4-6
After playing Minnesota are 2-8
After a win are 4-6
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games on the road
Dallas is 17-2 SU in its last 19 games when playing Memphis
Dallas is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Memphis's last 7 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Memphis's last 5 games when playing at home against Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Memphis's last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Memphis's last 10 games at home
Next up:
Dallas home to Atlanta, Saturday, December 5
Memphis home to Cleveland, Tuesday, December 8
Indiana Pacers vs. Utah Jazz
The fans at EnergySolutions Arena will be treated to a game between the Indiana Pacers and the Utah Jazz when they take their seats on Friday.
Danny Granger tossed in a game-high 33 points to lead the Pacers in a 110-105 loss to the Kings last time out. The Pacers were 2-point underdogs in that game, while the 215 points went as a PUSH against the posted total of 215.
Ronnie Brewer scored 25 points, as the Jazz rolled past the Grizzlies 120-93 on Monday night.
Utah covered as 9.5-point home favorites, while the teams played OVER the 206.5-point total set by sportsbooks.
Current streak:
Indiana has lost 3 straight games.
Utah has won 3 straight games.
Team records:
Indiana: 6-10 SU, 6-10 ATS
Utah: 10-7 SU, 9-8 ATS
Indiana most recently:
When playing on Friday are 4-6
Before playing LA Clippers are 3-7
After playing Sacramento are 2-8
After a loss are 3-7
Utah most recently:
When playing on Friday are 6-4
Before playing Minnesota are 7-3
After playing Memphis are 8-2
After a win are 4-6
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indiana's last 5 games when playing on the road against Utah
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Indiana's last 10 games on the road
Indiana is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Utah
Indiana is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games when playing Utah
Utah is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Utah is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Utah is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Indiana
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Utah's last 5 games
Next up:
Indiana at LA Clippers, Saturday, December 5
Utah at Minnesota, Saturday, December 5
Miami Heat vs. Los Angeles Lakers
The Miami Heat and the Los Angeles Lakers will both be gunning for a victory on Friday when they meet at STAPLES Center.
The Heat were cooled off 114-96 by the Nuggets last time out as a 9-point underdog. The 210 points went UNDER the posted total of 211.
Dwyane Wade netted 25 points and hauled down 10 rebounds for a double-double in the loss.
Andrew Bynum went for 21 points and nine rebounds to lead the Lakers past the Hornets 110-99 on Tuesday night.
Los Angeles failed to cover as 14.5-point home favorites, while the game played OVER the 201-point total listed by sportsbooks.
Current streak:
Los Angeles has won 7 straight games.
Team records:
Miami: 10-8 SU, 8-10 ATS
Los Angeles: 14-3 SU, 8-9 ATS
Miami most recently:
When playing on Friday are 5-5
Before playing Sacramento are 5-5
After playing Denver are 6-4
After a loss are 6-4
Los Angeles most recently:
When playing on Friday are 9-1
Before playing Phoenix are 6-4
After playing New Orleans are 8-2
After a win are 9-1
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Miami's last 9 games when playing LA Lakers
Miami is 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games when playing LA Lakers
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Miami's last 9 games when playing on the road against LA Lakers
Miami is 8-15 SU in its last 23 games on the road
LA Lakers are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games at home
LA Lakers are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games
LA Lakers are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games when playing at home against Miami
LA Lakers are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing Miami
Next up:
Miami at Sacramento, Sunday, December 6
LA Lakers home to Phoenix, Sunday, December 6
Boston (15-4, 9-10 ATS) at Oklahoma City (10-8, 11-7 ATS)
The Celtics wrap up a four-game road trip in Oklahoma City looking for their seventh straight win.
Boston got a hard-fought 90-83 victory in San Antonio on Thursday, cashing as a one-point underdog, making it a perfect 3-0 (SU and ATS) on the current road trip. The Celtics have now rattled off four straight spread-covers on the heels of six-game ATS slide. Kevin Garnett had 20 points and seven rebounds while Rajon Rondo added 12 points and 12 assists to lead the Celtics over the Spurs.
Oklahoma City crushed the Sixers on Wednesday, winning 117-106 as a 6½-point home favorite. The Thunder have won three of their last four (SU and ATS) and at home this season they are averaging 101.3 points a game while allowing just 94.7, going 6-3 ATS as a host (3-1 ATS last four).
Boston has won five straight in this series (4-1 ATS) and seven of the last 10 (both SU and ATS) dating back to 2004. Last season the Celtics went to Oklahoma and scored a 96-83 win as a 9½-point road favorite and also crushed the Thunder 103-84 in their matchup in Beantown as 11-point favorites. The host is on a 4-1 ATS run in the last five series clashes.
The Celtics are still just 5-9 ATS in their last 13 overall and 2-4 ATS in their last six against Western Conference teams, but they are also 5-1 ATS in their last six road games against teams with a winning home record. Oklahoma City is on positive ATS trends that include 20-8-1 against Eastern Conference squads. 5-2 at home, 18-6 as a home ‘dog, 4-1 on Friday and 6-2 against Atlantic Division teams.
Boston has topped the total in four of six overall, four of five as a favorite and seven of nine on Friday, but the Celtics are on “under” runs of 11-2-1 against Northwest Division teams, 18-8 when they play the second night of a back-to-back and 6-2 against the Western Conference. The Thunder have gone over the posted total in eight of 10 overall, four of five at home and five straight against the Eastern Conference, but they are on “under” streaks of 10-3 as home ‘dogs and 6-2 against Atlantic Division squads. Finally, the “under” has been the play in six of eight meetings between these two in Oklahoma City.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA CITY
Miami (10-8, 8-10 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (14-3, 8-9 ATS)
The surging Lakers will try to make it eight straight wins when they welcome the Heat to the Staples Center in Los Angeles.
Miami is on a four-game West Coast road trip, having split the first two, beating Portland 107-100 as a 6½-point ‘dog on Tuesday and then losing 114-96 in Denver on Thursday, failing as a nine-point road pup. The Heat have lost six of their last nine overall and have really struggled at the betting window, failing to cash in nine of their last 11.
Los Angeles has won seven in a row overall (5-2 ATS), scoring in triple digits in each of the seven wins while keeping the opposition in double-digits in each game. The Lakers beat up the Hornets 110-99 on Tuesday but came up short as a 15-point home favorite. Over its last five games, L.A. is averaging 109.4 points and shooting 48.4 percent from the floor, while allowing just 91.6 ppg.
The home team has won eight of the last nine (5-4 ATS) in this rivalry, including both matchups last year when the Lakers got a 108-105 win at home, but came up way short as 11-point favorites, then lost 89-87 in Miami as an eight-point chalk. The underdog is on a 6-2 ATS run when these two get together, but despite getting the money in L.A. last year, the Heat are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven trips to Hollywood.
The Heat are 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings with Pacific Division teams. Meanwhile, the Lakers are on a plethora of positive ATS streaks, including 7-3 at home, 8-3 as a favorite, 6-2 against Eastern Conference teams, 10-4 after getting two days off and 4-1 at home against teams with a winning road record.
Miami is on several “over” streaks, including 6-3 overall, 11-5 when they play the second night of a back-to-back, 4-1 on the road and 4-1 against Pacific Division teams. Los Angeles has topped the total in nine of 14 as a favorite and three of five against Eastern Conference teams, but the Lakers are also on “under” runs of 13-6-1 at home, 20-8 when playing on two days of rest, 7-2 against Southeast Division teams and 5-1 at home against teams with winning road records. Finally, in this rivalry, the “under” has been the play in seven of the last nine overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. LAKERS
Toronto Raptors at Washington Wizards
By SportsPic
The Raptors suffering one of their worst ever defeats on Wednesday a 146-115 loss to Hawks have now lost five consecutive games and fell to 2-9 (3-8 ATS) away from Toronto.
Purple Dinos need a little wizardry if they're to snap the slide in Washington. Raptors are 0-3 SU & ATS on the highway the past two seasons after a 25 or more point road loss and enter 3-7-1 ATS last ten trips into Washington.
Defenseless Raptors allowing 119.4 PPG over the slump are 2-38 (5-34-1 ATS) away surrendering 105 or more points, Wizards have averaged 110.3 PPG the past seven as host in the series. Total players should to be aware the series is 11-3 'Over' the past fourteen meetings, 7-1 'Over' the past eight on this hardwood.
NBA RoundUp for 12/4
by Dan Bebe
Rumors are swirling about a few trades, so I thought I'd focus on those instead of just the 3 NBA games yesterday (during which we nabbed a close win with the Denver/Miami Under).
First, Andre Miller, who cannot actually be traded until December 15 because of free agent signing rules, is apparently on the trade block. Portland overspent on Andre, and for whatever reason, the team's shining star, Brandon Roy, prefers playing with Steve Blake. That is one of the most ridiculous decisions I've heard, though Blake's ability to shoot the 3 does spread the floor, and Andre Miller is a pass-first floor general, better suited to play with a bunch of young scorers who need someone to get them the ball at the right time. It just hasn't been a good match in Portland, but there are plenty of teams that could use Andre's services.
Second, apparently there are serious talks going on between the Knicks and Bulls of a Tyrus Thomas for Al Harrington swap. This would seem to be a pretty pointless trade, though New York is clearing even more salary cap space. This would have more fantasy ramifications than on-court, since Tyrus should see plenty of court time in New York, and the Bulls will continue to underperform until something wakes them up.
Sports Wagering
Wizards/Raptors - Washington by 4 at home with a total of 216. Well, what can I say? We covered the Raptors on yesterday's podcast, so you know this team has officially bottomed out, giving up almost 150 points to the Hawks in a truly embarrassing loss. A season like the one Toronto is having is not going to keep Chris Bosh around, and it's looking like the addition of Hedo Turkoglu was not terribly important. This team has lost 5 in a row SU and ATS, and suddenly find themselves 8-12 ATS on the season, and 3-8 ATS on the road. They lose by an average margin of 11 points away from home. All that is just fine and dandy, but the one major concern in this one is that the Wizards beat Toronto in Canada just 3 days ago, and fact of the matter is that it is just not easy to beat a team twice that quickly. Washington is not a dominant club, so it's not as though they can just overwhelm the Raptors the way the Hawks did. I think Toronto actually has some value in this game, and while I'm aware of their road issues, this game feels like it has to be Toronto or nothing. Right now, I'm leaning towards nothing. In terms of the total, these teams played under 212.5 in Toronto, and now we're seeing a total 3.5 points higher. This seems to indicate that oddsmakers think the Raptors actually stay tough in this one and do some scoring. I lean slightly to the Over.
Hawks/Knicks - Atlanta by 12.5, total of 217. This line is quite large. I realize that Atlanta is one of the better teams in the League, and New York is certainly not, but given the Knicks have actually played some decent basketball recently, I'm surprised to see a line this high. Atlanta is coming off a ridiculous beating of the Raptors where the team shot almost 60% for the game, and most of the club talked about that one as "just one of those nights where everything goes in." I'm not sure Atlanta can pull off that sort of offensive performance two straight games. Let's be reasonable: Atlanta will likely win this game, but eclipsing 12.5 means this thing is going to have to be a blowout, and it means the back-door is never quite shut. Atlanta is 13-5 ATS this year, but 2-4 ATS in their last 6, so the team might be slightly overvalued, and I also like that the Hawks are traveling to Dallas as soon as this one ends for a much more marquee match with the Mavs. The Knicks, meanwhile, have a date with the Nets on Sunday, so they can focus pretty hard on this one. The Knicks are a pathetic 4-15 on the season, but a slightly less dismal 8-11 ATS, but my favorite note on New York is that their home/road split is only 2.8 points. They really don't seem to care where they're playing, they lose by a handful, but if they can even put 2-3 quarters of decent basketball together here, they should be able to cover. Slight lean to NY. The total of 217 feels pretty accurate, though given Atlanta's last game potentially moving the total up a point or two, I'd lean Under.
Thunder/Celtics - Oklahoma City collecting 3.5 at home with a total of 191.5. Obviously, Boston is in the worse of the two spots, here. Coming off last night's hard-fought TNT win over the Spurs, the Celtics have to get right back out there against a better-than-average Thunder club. Still, the overarching theme with the Celtics is that they do not mind playing on the road. They're 15-4 overall this year, 9-10 ATS, but 8-1 SU on the road and 5-4 ATS, so we certainly shouldn't count them out. This is a clear line movement watcher, since Boston has three days off after this game, and you'd imagine Doc Rivers has told his team to exhaust themselves to get a win, then they can take some time to recharge. The Thunder are coming off a win over the Sixers (and a cover), as they moved to 10-8 SU this year, and 11-7 ATS. The value here is obviously with the Thunder, but Boston seems to be on a bit of a mission on this road trip, so I'm leery about going in either direction. For the total, you just knew Boston and San Antonio would play a grinder last night, but the Thunder are suddenly moving things along a bit quicker. I trust Boston to control the tempo in this one since they're the veteran team, so I lean slightly to the Under, but truth be told, this one confuses me just a little. Oklahoma has been breaking 100 lately (aside from the loss to Houston), so they may very well push this score up. I can only shrug.
Cavaliers/Bulls - Cavs by 12 with a total of 190. Well, these teams have already met in Cleveland once, and the Bulls won that game 86-85 against an 11.5-point spread. Deja vu? I doubt it. These teams have gone in decidedly different directions since that game, with Cleveland rattling off a 10-2 mark since Chicago beat them, and the Bulls going 4-7, including a 5-game losing streak. Chicago is coming off a home win (and an ATS push) against the depressingly undermanned Pistons, so I don't think we really learned much there. They have to go back on the road for this one, where they're just 2-8, and really, Chicago has been one of the worst ATS bets this season, at just 5-10-1 against the spread. It's tough to take either side, and of course the value is with the Bulls getting 12 points, but right now they may be so bad that I'm not sure I could advocate such a move. I'd like to see this line climb to 12.5 to build some confidence in the Cavs on the big cover; time will tell. The total of 190 is 19 points higher than the number these teams combined to hit earlier this year, and that tells us something, as well. Cleveland has been scoring with ease, lately. My concern is that the Bulls may not break 90. No lean on the total.
Grizzlies/Mavericks - Memphis getting 5 points at home with a total of 207. This is a nice value on the Grizzlies, but let's take a closer look. Memphis is coming off a road win over the hapless Timberwolves, but before that, two straight fetid defeats in Utah and against the Clippers. They have failed to cover in their last 3 contests, and are just 8-11 ATS on the season...BUT...Memphis is 4-3 at home SU against 3-8 on the road with a final score differential of 9.4 points, so clearly this team is much, much better on their home court. They seem to play better defense at home, more than anything else, though admittedly, the teams they've played in Memphis have been markedly worse than the teams they've played on the road. Dallas, at 14-5 SU and 12-7 ATS, is just flat-out good. They're coming off a 16-point beating of the Nets (that sent poor New Jersey to the worst start in NBA history), and they've actually won 9 of 11. Dallas is 8-3 on the road this year, so they're not afraid of playing outside of Dallas, a nice change from years past, but I'm not sure that's enough to give them this game. Dallas will be hosting Atlanta tomorrow, clearly a more important barometer game, so you just wonder if they'll be looking ahead a little. Memphis is just coming home from a 5-game road trip, so they might be sluggish. The better bet in this one might be the Under, if both teams are a bit distracted.
Pistons/Bucks - Detroit laying 4.5 with a total of 186. Honestly, and I'd love to do a full breakdown, but without knowing what Pistons are playing, this one is a tough one to summarize. I've heard rumblings that Rip Hamilton is practicing aggressively, I've heard Charlie Villanueva is feeling better, and that Ben Gordon's ankle is still swollen and sore, but that he'll play through it, so, who the heck knows? With all these guys laid up, or playing through bumps and bruises, you have to believe the Pistons aren't going to be doing much in the way of pushing the ball. I'd go out on a limb and say I think this one goes Under, except the Bucks have played to the Over in 8 straight ballgames. There's a Milwaukee Under-Gravy-Train that's coming, but we just have to figure out when...
Hornets/Timberwolves - The Hornets by TEN at home with a total of 200. I mean, I just look at this game and think, "What business does New Orleans have laying 10 points to anyone or anything?" and really, they have no business doing so. I know the Timberwolves are just awful, but this line is out of control. So, let's dig deeper. New Orleans MIGHT get Chris Paul back tonight, as his ankle has apparently healed much faster than was originally suspected, but even if he does return, he'll be rusty, and you have to believe there will be an adjustment period. Alright, so we have the 7-11 Hornets (9-9 ATS) laying double digits. Looking at their games this year, the Hornets have actually only won ONE game by more than 10, and that was a 28-point win in Southern California over the Clippers. Is this a trap line to get people to take Minnesota? I don't think so. The public is going to look for every reason NOT to take the Timberwolves, so my guess is that oddsmakers really feel this game ends near a 10-point margin. Interestingly, the Hornets are a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS at home since November 17. The Wolves, meanwhile, are a stunningly bad 2-16 SU, 7-11 ATS, but have actually played "okay" in their last 2 games. Al Jefferson and Ryan Gomes have both showed up, so you just wonder what kind of effort we'll see from these guys tonight. They do host Utah tomorrow, and you hate to talk about look-aheads with a 2-16 team, but Utah is a divisional game, so it's possible. Still, I lean to the big dog, and to the Over, since I think the Hornets have been pushing the pace, and I think Minny actually keeps up.
Nets/Bobcats - Bobcats laying 5 in Jersey with a total of 181. Yikes, where do I begin? We all know the Nets are 0-18, and just 5-13 ATS, so not only have they been losing, but they've been losing bad. Given that we've never seen a team start 0-18, it's tough to know how Jersey will respond in this one. Maybe the pressure will be off, allowing them to finally loosen up a little and win a game; the pressure might continue to mount as the goose-egg just keeps getting bigger and bigger. I'd avoid this side under almost all circumstances, but we can take a look at Charlotte for the hell of it. After winning and covering 4 straight, the Bobcats got creamed by the Celtics, so they're liable to be angry going into this one, but at the same time, young teams often lose a couple in a row after winning a few. Make no mistake, this Charlotte team is really starting to gel. They do have a home game tomorrow against Philadelphia, but that's not a team that is going to create a look-ahead spot. In fact, playing an 0-18 team is precisely when you will not look ahead, as you know you're getting the hungriest, most irritated opponent in the NBA. I think this side is pretty sharp. I think the side has a shot of going Over, just because it's so low, but again, tough game to call.
Jazz/Pacers - Utah by 8.5 with a total of 210. I just can't even believe what I'm seeing, with almost every early dollar coming on Indiana, and the only thing I can think is that the RIDICULOUSLY STUPID John Morrison system is moving lines again. I'm tempted to just say take Utah, because no one is slowing this team down, but let's actually handicap this game and make sure we're getting the value I initially think we're getting. Okay, for one, Utah has woken up at home. They're now 7-3 at whatever they call the Delta Center these days (is this place Energy Solutions Arena?), and they've won and covered 3 straight at home - BIG. Utah beat Chicago by 19, Portland by 16 and Memphis by 27, shooting over 60% twice and 58% in the other win. They're having fun, and they're steamrolling. Utah plays in Minnesota tomorrow, so the look-ahead isn't a huge issue at hand, so there's very little reason to think they won't put forth another solid effort. Not sure about 60% shooting again, but you just never know with these guys. The Pacers have lost 7 of 8; they've failed to cover in all 7 of those losses, and this team is now 6-10 both SU and ATS this year. They have plenty to look forward to, with bodies getting healthy and rotations getting set, but right now they're not shooting the ball that well and not playing very good defense. I lean Utah, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Jazz hit 115 points, so I lean slightly to the Over.
Lakers/Heat - Wow, tough, tough spot for Miami. Lakers by 11 with a total of 197. The Heat are being asked to really pull off a miracle in this one, at least to win the game. Miami got their clock cleaned in Denver late last night, then had to travel West to take on arguably the best and hottest team in the NBA. We all know what Miami's been up to, since we covered them in great detail in yesterday's RoundUp (losing a lot, getting one win in Portland), but what about the Lakers? Los Angeles is 14-3 on the season, but just 8-9 ATS. If we take a narrower window of time, the results are actually better, believe it or not. The Lakers have won 7 straight games, every single game by double digits! Because they're the Lakers, that still translates to just a 5-2 ATS record (there were some huge spreads in there), but right now no one is even coming close to competing. I see no reason to think Miami has a shot. You know D-Wade will come ready to play, but the Lakers ridiculous size on the inside, strength on the wings, and deeper bench should take care of Miami the same way they've taken care of these other teams. You figure either Kobe or Ron Artest will be on Wade, which does not bode well for Miami, and every other match-up in this game strongly favors LA. The total of 197 looks low to most bettors, but we must remember that the Heat will actually need to break 90, and I'm not sure they will. No lean on the total, lean to the Lakers on the gargantuan side.
Fantasy Advice
The Birdman - Chris Andersen is starting to wake up. I don't know if it was a bit of a stoner daze, but the Birdman was just not blocking shots the first couple weeks, but he's starting to pick up the pace, and I think this might be the start of a nice stretch of defense.
Tips and Trends
Miami Heat at Los Angeles Lakers
Heat: Miami comes into Los Angeles tonight struggling. After starting the season 6-1 SU and ATS, the Heat have lost 6 of 10 games SU. During that same 10 game stretch, they are 2-10 ATS. The Heat are 5-3 ATS as an underdog. This marks the first game this season that the Heat are a double digit underdog. Miami has 5 players averaging double digits in points. G Dwyane Wade is scoring 26.8 PPG, which is 6th in the NBA. F Quentin Richardson has been put back in the starting lineup. The Heat are 7-4 SU this season with Richardson starting. F Michael Beasley is playing his most consistent basketball of his career right now. The Heat are 4th in the NBA in opposing field goal percentage, and only give up 95 PPG.
Miami is 4-0-1 ATS last 5 games as a road underdog of 11 points or more.
Under is 9-2 last 11 games as a road underdog of 11 points or more.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 91
Lakers (-11, O/U 197): The Lakers have the best record in the NBA at 14-3 SU. Los Angeles is 8-4 ATS over their past 12 games. The Lakers are 3-3 ATS as a double digit favorite. G Kobe Bryant is 2nd in the NBA in scoring at nearly 29 PPG. Bryant has led an offense that has scored 100 PTS or more in 13 of their 14 wins this year. C Andrew Bynum is the 2nd leading scorer for the Lakers, as he averages 18 PPG. Bynum also grabs 10 RPG to lead the Lakers. The Lakers are 7th in the NBA in scoring, at 104 PPG. During their current 7 game winning streak, LA has held their opponents under 100 PTS in each game. The Lakers are the best in the NBA at opposing field goal %, holding their opponents to 42% shooting. F Ron Artest has been a welcome addition defensively to this Lakers team.
Lakers are 7-3 ATS last 10 home games.
Under is 5-1 last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Key Injuries - F Luke Walton (finger) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 98 (UNDER - Total of the Day)
Trend Report - Friday
By Ed Meyer
Bulls at Cavaliers – The Bulls are 6-0 ATS (15.9 ppg) since March 26, 2006 on the road with at most one day of rest after a home win in which the percentage of their baskets that were assisted was at least ten percentage points higher than their season-to-date average. The Bulls are 5-0 ATS (14.1 ppg) since February 06, 2004 with at most one day of rest off a win that broke at least a five-game losing streak. The Cavaliers are 6-0 ATS (5.6 ppg) since February 13, 2005 at home with at most one day of rest after a game in which they blocked at least 10 shots.
Mavericks at Grizzlies – The Grizzlies are 8-0 ATS (8.8 ppg) since February 18, 2003 at home off a road win in which they trailed by 10+ points. The Grizzlies are 0-8 ATS (-6.2 ppg) since February 13, 2006 with at most one day of rest after a game on the road after a win in which they made fewer baskets than their opponent.
Knicks at Hawks – The Knicks are 7-0 ATS (9.9 ppg) since January 19, 2008 when seeking revenge for a home loss in which they led at the half.
Timberwolves at Hornets – The Timberwolves are 0-10 ATS (-11.6 ppg) since April 09, 2008 with at most one day of rest after a game in which they shot at least 50% from the field. The Timberwolves are 0-8 ATS (-9.4 ppg) since December 12, 2008 with at most one day of rest off a loss in which they led by 10+ points. The League is 9-0-1 ATS (5.8 ppg) since December 03, 2008 at home with at least one day of rest after a double digit road loss in which they shot at least twenty three-pointers and made less than a 25% of them.
Pacers at Jazz – The Pacers are 7-0 ATS (10.6 ppg) since May 28, 2004 on the road when they had more turnovers than assists for two straight games. The Jazz are 0-8-1 ATS (-13.6 ppg) since December 15, 1995 with two or more days of rest after a double digit home win in which they shot at least 55% from the field. The Jazz are 8-0 ATS (9.9 ppg) since May 26, 2007 at home with 3+ days rest.
Heat at Lakers – The Lakers are 5-0 ATS (11.8 ppg) since April 19, 2006 at home with two or more days of rest after a double digit win in which they scored more than 25% of their points from the free throw line.
Bobcats at Nets – The Bobcats are 6-0 ATS (6.4 ppg) since January 11, 2005 on the road with at least one day of rest after a double digit loss in which they scored less than 10% of their points from the three-point line. The Nets are 8-0 ATS (7.2 ppg) since January 01, 2005 after a home loss in which their opponent stole the ball at least twelve times.
Bucks at Pistons – The Bucks are 0-7-1 ATS (-6.2 ppg) since February 24, 2006 after a road loss in which they committed fewer than ten turnovers. The Pistons are 0-10 ATS (-8.2 ppg) since April 20, 2008 at home when facing a team they lost to as a dog in their previous same-season match-up.
Celtics at Thunder – The Thunder are 6-0 ATS (6.3 ppg) since December 13, 2008 with at least one day of rest after a game in which their opponent shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them.
Raptors at Wizards – The Raptors are 8-0 ATS (9.9 ppg) since November 25, 2005 on the road with at most one day of rest after a road loss in which they committed fewer than ten turnovers. The Raptors are 0-8-1 ATS (-9.8 ppg) since April 19, 2006 on the road with at most one day of rest after a double digit loss in which they allowed at least 55% from the field. The Wizards are 0-6-1 ATS (-5.1 ppg) since November 10, 2006 at home with at most one day of rest after a home win in which they shot at least 50% from the field.